Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -142
The Indians bounced back to even their series with the Astros, and I expect them to win it here. They've won the games they're supposed to win at home, going 47-16 in their last 63 home contests versus losing clubs. They're also a mind-blowing 22-5 in their last 27 home games versus left-handed starters. The Astros are an ugly 26-77 in their last 103 road games versus winning teams. They've also dropped seven of their last eight in Cleveland. The Astros are 3-7 in Oberholtzer's last 10 road starts while the Indians are 4-1 in Bauer's last five home starts.
Larry Ness
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers sure aren't making it easy on themselves in their quest for a playoff berth. Detroit lost 20-6 on Friday to the Twins, then opened with a 12-4 loss in Game 1 of a doubleheader at Minnesota on Saturday, before Justin Verlander labored through 5.2 innings to earn his 11th win in the second game for the Tigers, who won 8-6 to remain three back of first-place Kansas City in the AL Central. Detroit is one game back of Seattle for the AL's final card spot.
Coming off that much-needed victory, Detroit should be feeling confident heading into its series finale with the Minnesota Twins sending Max Scherzer to the mound. Scherzer tries to win his fifth straight start against the Twins, while looking to help the Tigers earn a split of the four-game road set Sunday. Scherzer (14-4, 3.07 ERA) owns a 2.39 ERA during his four-start winning streak vs Minnesota and for his career, is 7-2 with a 4.43 ERA in 13 starts teams are 10-3).
He's 6-1 in his last 11 starts and had posted a 1.78 ERA in his previous 10, before he allowed four runs in the first two innings and lasted seven while striking out nine in an 8-6, 11-inning victory at Tampa Bay on Tuesday. All in all, Scherzer seems pleased with the follow-up to his Cy Young Award-winning season. "That was my mindset coming into this year: I was going to be a better pitcher than I was last year," Scherzer, who has 34 strikeouts in 23 innings over his last three starts, told MLB's official website. "Take all the numbers, throw them out. I'm not referencing wins and losses or anything," he added. "If you look at how I'm pitching and what I'm able to execute, I'm executing all my pitches at a higher level right now."
Minnesota's Kyle Gibson (11-9, 4.13 ERA) allowed six runs in two innings against Scherzer and the Tigers on May 10, then yielded five hits in seven innings of a 2-0 victory at Comerica Park on June 13. Gibson's been "hit or miss" since the All Star break, with three quality starts (3-0, 1.66 ERA) but real struggles in his other three outings (0-2, 8.64 ERA).
Tigers need a win badly (are just 5-13 their last 18 on the road) and Sherzer delivers!
David Banks
Arizona Cardinals -2
The Cincinnati Bengals (0-2, 0-1-1 ATS) are still in pursuit of their first win of the preseason as they implement new schemes on offense and defense, and they now pay a visit to the Arizona Cardinals (1-1, 2-0 ATS) at U. of Phoenix Stadium Sunday at 8:00 ET on NBC. The Bengals opened up with a narrow 41-39 shootout loss at Kansas City before losing at home 25-17 to the Jets last week. The Cardinals opened up with a dominating performance here at home, a 32-0 blowout of the Texans, before losing a tight one on the road 30-28 at Minnesota in Week 2.
The Bengals lost both their offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator during the off-season, and the results with the new schemes have been mixed to say the least. Now, teams that are 0-2 have traditionally been good bets in Week 3 of the preseason under normal circumstances, but these circumstances are not normal. Cincinnati is still more concerned getting their schemes down on both sides of the ball than they are with actually winning there meaningless games. New offensive coordinator favors a power running game, which is a vast departure from the quick timing passes favored by former OC Jay Gruden, who left to become head coach of the Washington Redskins. Giovani Bernard is expected to be the bell cow of that new running attack this year as reports are he could be expected to touch the ball 300 times this season. However, he has rushed for just 32 yards on 10 carries this preseason, and while his starting job is not in jeopardy, the Bengals have already stated that they plan to take a long look atback-up running back Jeremy Hill with the first team in this game, another indication that winning or losing does not matter much. And the defense is having a tough time thus far after ranking fourth in the NFL in total defense under the old system last year allowing only 306.2 yards per game, allowing 41 points in Week 1 and then 343 total yards and 25 points with the starters playing a little longer last week.
The Cardinals looked awesome in their only home game this preseason while out-gaining Houston by 235 total yards in the opening week shutout, but then the Cardinals suffered another loss last week besides losing by two points on the field, as they lost stalwart defensive end Darnell Dockett for the season after he tore both his ACL and MCL. Arizona had an understandable lack of intensity after the injury that may have accounted for allowing the Vikings to score 17 points in the fourth quarter as Arizona blew a 21-13 lead entering that final stanza. Dockett will certainly be missed in the long run, but possibly not as much in this game with the Cincinnati offense still working out some kinks and the Cardinals' run defense remains stout. There have been no problems at all offensively as Arizona has gotten good quarterback play from starter Carson Palmer and second-stringer Drew Stanton, and those two should play the bulk of this contest after Ryan Lindley may have lost his job as the third quarterback with a bad second half last week to rookie Logan Thomas, who completed 11-of-12 passes for 113 yards and one touchdown in Week 1.
The Bengals are 2-8 ATS (3-7 straight up) in their last 10 preseason road games, losing by an average of -6.0 points.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago White Sox -111
The White Sox are worth a shot at this price given the advantage they have on the mound with Sale, who has a 2.12 ERA on the season and an even nastier 1.57 ERA on the road. The Sox have won 13 of 20 with Sale on the hill this season. They are also 7-3 in his last 10 starts as a favorite. In 4 career starts versus the Yankees, he's 3-0 with an ERA of 1.27. Capuano hasn't been nearly as sharp. He's allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and the Yankees are 1-4 in his 5 starts this season. New York has been a poor home pup at just 8-20 in its last 28 in the role.
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. LIONS -3 +107 over Saskatchewan
Condolences go out to anyone that played the two dogs in the first two games of the CFL this weekend. Two favorites, two miracle covers but this chalk isn’t likely to need any miracles in this one. B.C. Lions president and CEO Dennis Skulsky committed the cardinal sin of “guaranteeing a win”, or fans get a free ticket to one of the Lions next four home games. That’s unnecessary motivation for the opposition but it’s more of a marketing tactic and it has less of an impact than if a coach or player had issued the guarantee. Besides, we’ve been calling the Riders imposters all season and now the Lions get a chance to prove that. Saskatchewan has reeled off four in a row to run its record to 5-2. However, the four victories came against Toronto on July 26, when the Argos were a mess, Ottawa, Winnipeg and last week against the Als, 16-11. Against Winnipeg, the Riders won by 6 and were outgained in the air by nearly 200 yards and last week they probably should have lost as 14-point favorites. That’s four really soft games in the last four weeks and even against Ottawa, Saskatchewan statistically was no better, as they outgained the Redblacks by a measly 12 yards. In fact, against Montreal and Ottawa, Saskatchewan’s margin of total yards gained over that pair was just 57 yards. Against Toronto and Winnipeg, the Riders were outgained by over 100 yards and by over 330 yards in the air. The Riders defense ranks last in the West and sixth in the league, ahead of only Hamilton and Ottawa. Riders QB, Darian Durant ranks seventh in passing yards, which is actually the worst mark in the league among regular starters. Some will argue that the Riders are a run first offense but we’re not buying that argument for a second because it’s just not true. They have the fewest pass attempts in the league because they have the second most two and outs in the league, ahead of only the Alouettes. The last tough opponent the Riders faced was these same Lions back in Saskatchewan on July 12. B.C. won that game 26-13.
Since opening the season 0-2, B.C. has won five of six and they’ve also won three in a row. The Lions are great defensively, ranking a fraction below the Eskimos for the best defense in the league. In a year in which scoring is way down, the Lions have had no trouble whatsoever moving the chains or putting up points, as they have scored 41, 25, 36 and 33 points respectively in four of their past five games. Along the way, they defeated Calgary and a very game Hamilton bunch. The Lions have a top-2 offense and a top-2 defense. They’re also at home, where the Lions have won 25 of 29 regular season games since BC Place opened in 2011. Meanwhile, the Riders are way overvalued this season because of their current 5-2 record and because they’re the current champs. However, Saskatchewan is simply not that good and they’re worse on the road, where they have just two covers in its past 13 road games and that’s not likely to change in this setting.
Note: We’re passing on the Redblacks/Stampeders game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago -110 over N.Y. YANKEES
For whatever reason, the New York Yankees remain grossly overvalued and that’s never been more evident than it is here. When we get Chris Sale against any Yanks pitcher not named Tanaka at this price, we’re going to play it 100% of the time. Sale is putting up Cy Young numbers. He’s struck out 48 over his last 34 innings and is averaging a sick 13 K’s/9 over his last five starts. On the year, Sale has 158 K’s and just 26 walks issued in 136 innings. He’s absolutely smothering lefties, limiting them to a ridiculous .057/.108/.057 line. However, it’s close to a moot point, since opposing managers mostly refuse to bat lefties against him. Thing is, Joe Girardi’s hands are tied because his outfield, which consists of Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki all bat left. So does Stephen Drew and Brian McCann and if McCann sits, backup catcher Francisco Cervelli is hitting .143 over his past 10 games. Sale has dominated the Yankees in his past three starts against them and that figures to continue here, as New York has averaged 2.5 RPG on a .584 OPS over its last 11 games, the worst mark in the majors.
Chris Capuano has made just five starts this season after spending the first few months of the season in the Red Sox’ pen. The Yanks have lost four of his five starts. Over his last two starts, Capuano has surrendered 14 hits and eight runs in 11.1 innings. In those two games, the Yanks are 0-2 and have been outscored 18-7. There’s a reason Capuano couldn’t start for Boston. There’s a reason that the Yankees are his fifth team since 2010. Thrice last season, the Dodgers tried to demote him to bullpen, only to reinstate as a starter out of necessity. His roller-coaster 2013 also included a June DL stint (calf) and a September groin strain. Health woes, age (36), miles on his arm and increasing struggles vs. RHB suggest pen may be good fit but he’s back in the starting role, again, out of necessity and that’s not a good fit. The South Side offers up all the value in this one.
Tampa Bay -109 over TORONTO
Chris Archer started the season with outstanding skills in April but he followed that up with three months of mediocrity from May to July. Those three months of mediocrity have been wiped away so far in August, when his skills have been even more electric than they were in April: 12.8 K’s/9, 2.4 BB/9, 44% groundball rate and a 15% swing and miss rate. In his past five starts, Archer has posted a 2.64 ERA with a BB/K split of 12/36 in 31 innings. Archer remains a premium arm and could be in store for a big finish.
Drew Hutchison looks like he might be a poor stretch-run target in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery since he struggled to gain any consistency after his electric April. Hutchison has been awful pitching with runners on with a BAA of .344. His strand rate over the past month is the lowest in the majors at 53% and while bad luck and a low strand rate go hand-in-hand, that BAA with runners on tells the story of a pitcher struggling from the stretch. Hutchison is an exciting young arm with the potential to produce plenty of strikeouts but he carries some durability risk down the stretch. He’s also been brutal at home with a 3-5 record and a 6.46 ERA. Hutchsion has been a strong fade when pitching at home this entire year and now he's up against a vastly superior starter.
LT Profits
White Sox vs Yankees
Pick: Under 7
Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox remains the second choice behind Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young despite taking just his third loss Monday, where he still recorded a Quality Start allowing three runs in six innings with eight strikeouts vs. Baltimore. That leaves Sale at 10-3 with a spiffy 2.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP for the season with a terrific ratio of 158 strikeouts vs. 26 walks in136 innings. The first time he faced the New York Yankees, he allowed just one hit in six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. However, Capuano has not been terrible since coming to New York despite being 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA, as he has 32 strikeouts in 30.1 innings vs. seven walks and has allowed just one home run, resulting in a 2.34 FIP and 2.99 xFIP as a Yankee. The ‘under’ is 25-9-2 in the Yankees’ last 36 games overall.
Bob Balfe
San Diego +6
The 49ers have not looked sharp in the preseason and its time to get their starters involved in this week 3 preseason game. On Defense they have lost Dorsey for the year and a lot of the key guys up front just are not going to play until the regular season. Without the key guys in their this is not a dominate defense. The Chargers have a very good offense and I believe can win this game outright tonight. The 49ers need to give their fans a nice showing here in their new stadium where they were man handled last week. Look for the Niners Offense to show up today. Take the Chargers and the Over (no parlay)
Line Catchers
Tampa Bay Rays – 121
Sunday sees the Rays and Blue Jays face off in game 3 of their 3 game set in Toronto having split the first two games on Friday and Saturday.
The Rays will send righty Chris Archer to the mound this afternoon to face a Toronto team which he has had success against in the past. Archer sports an 8-6 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 25 starts this season and has pitched even better on the road this campaign. He is 4-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and has held opponents to a .243 BA. In 7 ‘Day’ trips to the hill, Archer has hurled 41 innings and has pitched to a stingy 2.43 ERA. The Rays are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games with Archer toeing the rubber.
Drew Hutchinson gets the nod for the Blue Jays and comes into tonight’s game having given up 13 ER in his last 2 starts. Hutchinson is 8-11 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 25 starts this year and has been as inconsistent as any pitcher in the AL. Hutchinson has been rocked in 8 ‘Day’ outings in 2014, he is 2-6 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. The righty has struggled to find his command at the Rogers Centre which has resulted in the Jays dropping 6 of his 9 starts at home.
In todays rubber game, I believe the Rays are showing good value as a small favourite. Its worth noting that Archer has a 3.24 ERA in 6 career starts against Toronto compared to a Drew Hutchinson who has pitched to a lofty 7.78 ERA in 4 career outings against the Rays.
BONES BEST BETS
NATIONALS -1 -113
We were hoping for a slightly smaller line here but this is definately still a play-on for us and a play-on with the most confidence. Strasburg is simply too good at home to avoid and he has been since his rookie year. He is 8-2 at home, has a 2.30 ERA, and a 1.01 WHIP. Over 94 innings pitched he has struck out 116 batters. The Nats have won 11 of their last 12 games overall + Stras on the hill = big bet for us here today!
RAYS TEAM TOTAL – OVER 4
The Rays have scored 12 runs in their first 2 games in Toronto for this 3 game series and now face Drew Hutchison today who owns a 6.46 ERA at the Rogers Centre and a 7.02 ERA in day games. We could be cashing this ticket by the 4th inning this aft.
WHITE SOX @ YANKEES -UNDER 7
The issue lately for the White Sox has been their offense that has been held to three or less runs in 14 of their last 16 games. Offensively they have been a joke, pair that with their ace on the hill today Chris Sale and we think this under can hit. Sale is 10-3 with a 2.12 ERA and has 158 strikeouts in 136 innings. Sale is 3-0 with a 0.85 ERA in seven career games against the Yankees. The Yankees pitching staff has allowed just six runs in its last three games and three or less runs in five of their last seven. Chris Capuano takes the hill and is 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA in three career games against the White Sox.
BRAVES @ REDS – UNDER 8
This total is half a point high. 8 has a lot of value today. These teams are a combine 110-135 o/u this year. They have went under in 4 of their last 5 meetings and the other game pushed. Also in 4 of those 5 games the total was set at less than 8. Harang hasn’t been great lately but that shouldn’t be an issue because the Reds can’t hit. They have scored a total of 2 runs in the first 3 games of the series. Simon has a solid 1.20 WHIP on the year and has been solid during day games with a 0.95 WHIP. We wouldn’t be surprised if neither team puts up 4 runs today.
Bob Balfe
San Diego Chargers +6 & Over 42
The 49ers have not looked sharp in the preseason and its time to get their starters involved in this week 3 preseason game. On Defense they have lost Dorsey for the year and a lot of the key guys up front just are not going to play until the regular season. Without the key guys in their this is not a dominate defense. The Chargers have a very good offense and I believe can win this game outright tonight. The 49ers need to give their fans a nice showing here in their new stadium where they were man handled last week. Look for the Niners Offense to show up today. Take the Chargers and the Over (no parlay)
Cardinals/Bengals Over 43
Both teams have opportunistic defenses with players capable of scoop and scores and pick 6's. I like both quarterbacks to start this game and really Carson Palmer is having a great camp. This guy could take this team far if he cuts down the turnovers. The backup QB's have also looked decent. Even the Cardinals 4th stringer has look solid. Look for a lot of scoring and maybe some defensive and special teams scores in the dome. Take the Over
Wunderdog
Houston vs Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -142
A brutal situational spot for Houston, the end of a 10-game road trip. They've lost two of the last three games, scoring zero and two runs in the losses. This offense is 22nd in baseball in on-base percentage and 27th in team batting average. The Astros are 26-77 on the road against a team with a winning record and have southpaw Brett Oberholtzer (4-8, 4.01 ERA) on the hill. Opponents hit .284 off him, and the Astros are 3-7 in Oberholtzer's last 10 road starts. Cleveland has a strong offense, eighth in runs scored, 11th in OBP, and 10th in slugging. The Indians are 22-5 in their last 27 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer throws best at home (3.36 ERA), and Cleveland has owned this series, winning seven of the last eight. Plus, the Astros are 1-7 in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.