Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 25

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

When Dan Haren and the Nationals conclude a three-game visit against Ervin Santana and the Royals in Kansas City Sunday afternoon, Washington will do so knowing Haren is in commanding KW form with 41 strikeouts and 7 walks his last seven starts. In addition, Haren is 3-0 his last three away team starts during August and 2-0 versus the AL Central this season. On the other side of the coin, Santana is in wobbly current form and just 1-3 in his teams starts versus NL foes this season. With that, we recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -149

The Texas Rangers still have a lot to play for as they battle Oakland for first place in the AL West Division. The Chicago White Sox do not as they are firmly entrenched in last place in the AL Central. I'll gladly side with the Rangers due to their motivation and their edge on the mound Sunday.

Matt Garza has proven to be an excellent acquisition before the trade deadline for Texas. The right-hander is 9-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 17 starts, including 4-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in nine road starts.

John Danks has struggled this season for the White Sox. The left-hander is 3-10 with a 4.22 ERA over 17 starts. He has allowed a whopping 22 home runs in 111 innings, and the Rangers certainly know how to hit the long ball.

Garza is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts against Chicago, yielding just five earned runs over 22 innings. Texas is hitting .279 and scoring 5.1 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2013. Bet the Rangers Sunday.

Jeffrey Brandes

Kansas City Royals -120

Pitchers:
Washington Nationals: D. Haren - R
Kansas City Royals: E. Santana - R

Haren tossed six innings, allowing one run on five hits while fanning six in a win over the Cubs Tuesday. The victory was his fourth in five starts, and with it, he improved to 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA in August. In 10 career starts vs. KC, he's 5-2.

Santana, in his 25th start, held the White Sox to one earned run but ran up a high pitch count, 111, and was pulled after six innings. He's gone six or more innings in all but two of his starts, and his 19 quality starts put him among the AL leaders.

Steve Janus

Houston Astros +126

I was all over the Astros as a home dog on Friday and once again they are showing great value against a Blue Jays team is down in the dumps. At the time of this write up, Toronto was headed for their seventh straight loss. There's just no reason for them to get excited about beating Houston and they certainly are playing with a whole lot of pride right now.

The pitching matchup also favors Houston in this game. Toronto's Chien-Ming Wang is coming off back-to-back horrible starts. He allowed 7 runs in 1 and 2/3 innings at Boston and 6 runs in 1 and 2/3 innings at home vs the Tigers. Houston on the other hand sends out a red-hot Brad Peacock, who didn't allow a single earned run in 6 and 1/3 innings of a 8-2 win at Los Angeles in his last start. Peacock has a dazzling 1.86 ERA and 0.983 WHIP over his last three starts.

Art Aronson

Tigers vs. Mets
Play: Under 7½

Rick Porcello (9-7, 4.52 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Porcello is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs over just 4 1/3's innings vs. the Twins on Tuesday. It was his first setback since late June; Porcello now looks to bounce back and brings his respectable 5-4, 3.90 ERA into New York to throw opposite Dillon Gee (9-8, 3.60 ERA) who gave up one unearned run over 7 2/3's innings in a 6-1 win over the Twins on Monday. Gee would scatter six hits with one walk while striking out a season-high nine in the masterful performance. He has now given up two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his last 15 starts. Also note that Gee is 1-0 with a minuscule 1.26 ERA in two interleague starts this year and is 4-3 with a tiny 2.21 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season (in fact, Gee is so hot right now that he's given up just four earned runs over his last four combined starts). The Tigers would batter the Mets for 15 hits yesterday, but still only won 3-0. With these two quality starters facing off on the bump, all signs do indeed once again point to a lower-scoring pitchers duel; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Giants have a weak offense with everyone but Buster Posey swinging at every pitch. The Giants are 26th in baseball in runs scored and 28th in slugging. Starter Ryan Vogelsong has struggled, with a 2-4 record and a 6.29 ERA. He's also 1-3 in his career against Pittsburgh with a 4.50 ERA. The Giants are 7-20 in their last 27 home games, 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Pittsburgh is in a tight pennant race and continues to overachieve. The Pirates are 41-18 in their last 59 vs. a team with a losing record. Starter A.J. Burnett has been solid all year with a 3.09 ERA and is 6-2 with a 1.95 ERA against the Giants. And the Pirates are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Andre Gomes

Swansea City / Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5

I believe Tottenham is a bit overrated in today's game. Pinnacle has them with a 60% chance of winning, but they had a road game midweek in Georgia for Europa League and they had just lost Gareth Bale to Real Madrid. There is some uncertainty in the team right now and so, their players' mindset isn't 100% locked in right now. They will host Swansea City today and I believe this game has everything to be a high-scoring affair.

Swansea has an offensive mindset and they like to search for the goal no matter the level of their opponent. They faced Manchester United in Round 1 and they still attempted 17 shots, with 14 of them coming from build up plays! They will create chances in this game because they are very good offensively. The problem is that they give a lot of space to their opponents on defense and that's easily attacked by teams with skilled players. Manchester United used Robin van Persie and Danny Welbeck to take advantage of that, while Tottenham will use their quick players (Aaron Lennon, Roberto Soldado and Paulinho) to create a lot of dangerous situations in fast counter moves. Tottenham scored just one goal at Crystal Palace in Round 1, but they had plenty of chances to score. I believe that with both teams having an offensive mindset for today's game and especially good offensive skills, this game will turn into a goals fest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Manchester City -1

Manchester City was the team that showed the best offensive fluidity on Round 1. They crushed Newcastle on everything: 64% ball possession, 91% pass success rate, 11 shots on target. Their ability to play deep on the wings with Jesus Navas and David Silva is amazing and they're to my the #1 contender to win the EPL this season. For today's game, Vincent Kompany won't play and he will join Stevan Jovetic, Micah Richards and Matija Nastasic on the sidelines. However, Javi Garcia will replace him in today's game by partnering with Joleon Lescott at centre back and he is a fine replacement. Besides that, Cardiff City was extremely poor at West Ham on Round 1 and so, I don't expect them to cause problems to City's defense today.

Cardiff City was unable to create scoring chances against West Ham, with just a couple of decent plays on the second half, even though they ended the game with 56% ball possession. Of course Cardiff won't have such a high percentage of ball possession, while their defense will lack the proper discipline to handle the offensive waves from Manchester City during the whole game. West Ham was able to create 15 build up offensive plays against them, so Manchester City should be able to absolutely crush them with continuous offensive plays throughout the whole match.

I believe Cardiff City will also show some nerves on their home debut today, while Manchester City will want to make a statement in their first road game of the season, after being just the 5th best road team in the league last season, the main reason why they couldn't revalidate their title. Therefore, I'll be taking Manchester City today for an easy win.

Rocketman

Washington @ Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -120

The Washington Nationals travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Sunday afternoon. Washington is 4-15 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Washington is 3-10 this year on the road when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Washington is 3-12 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Washington is scoring only 3.6 runs per game on the road this year where they have a weak team batting average of only .229. Washington is allowing 6 runs per game their past seven games overall. Dan Haren is 8-11 with a 4.64 ERA overall this year and 3-7 with a 4.20 ERA on the road this season. Ervin Santana is 8-7 with a 3.13 ERA overall this year and 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA at home this season. Santana has a 3.10 ERA in his three starts against Washington in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City today!

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -131

All of the key angles swing in favor of the Cardinals today. Lance Lynn has been nothing short of lethal for St Louis when starting at home. The Cardinals are 10-3 in his 13 home starts and Lynn has posted a 3.04 ERA. Mike Minor has been struggling for the Braves, posting a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts. He is coming off a horrible performance against the Nationals where he gave up four earned runs in just 1.7 innings.

The Braves are batting .221 over their past seven games and scoring 3.1 runs per game. The Cardinals on the other hand have a .275 batting average and have scored 5.4 runs per game over their past seven games. At home St Louis has a .277 batting average, scoring 4.5 runs per game while the Braves are batting just .242 on the road this season.

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Colorado Rockies

Colorado is favored in this game and we don't see that too often. In fact the last 4 times they were road favorites from -100 to -125 they won. For our system we want to play on road favorites off a road loss vs an opponent like Miami that is off a home win if both teams had 4 or less hits. These road teams win 80% of the time. Colorado has Delarosa on the mound and he has allowed just 4 runs in 17 inning sin his last 3 starts vs Miami. The Marlins counter with J. Turner who has an Era nearing 5 in his last 3 starts, none of which he even went 6 innings. We will back Colorado as the free Play.

Bruce Marshall

Minnesota at San Francisco
Pick: Under

The 49ers have been unspeakably dull in the first two preseason games and I think there is some real concern behind QB Colin Kaepernick, with Jim Harbaugh not likely to risk his franchise QB any more than he should in the second half. The Seneca Wallace pickup late this past week is a sure sign that Harbaugh is dissatisfied with his QB rotation behind Kaepernick. But the 49ers continue to play good defense and the Vikings are not scoring many points. Adrian Peterson gets his first work of the preseason in this one, but how much we see of him is up in the air, and he is likely out in the second half. Minensota's QB rotation has been spotty (as have Ponder's efforts in limited work thus far). Harbaugh "under" 8-3 last 11 in preseason, and Vikes have cleared a 40 "total" just twice in their last ten preseason games.

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Braves / Cardinals Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mike Minor and Lance Lynn face off in a great pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. Facing the Cardinals, Minor draws the team with the sixth-lowest batting average against left handed pitching and the seventh-lowest OPS. The Cardinals have the fourth-lowest walk rate against lefties, which is significant because opposing batters are hitting just .231 off Minor this season. Minor has been tremendous this season, with a spike in strikeouts, a drop in walks, and a sizable drop in home runs allowed. As a result, Minor has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.14 FIP. He's been terrific this season and there's no reason to expect anything different on Sunday.
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Lance Lynn enters this start in line for a little bit of luck. He has a 3.97 ERA but a 3.19 FIP. His batting average allowed is .237, but his BABIP against is .303. Balls just haven't been hit at his fielders often enough. Lynn has done a much better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark this season and that should help him against a Braves team that ranks third in home runs against right handed pitching this season.
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This is a great pitching matchup that we expect to live up to its expectations.

FezzikFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Saints / Texans Over 43.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Week 3 has a character all its own in the NFL preseason, and that has us projecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this one.
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In week 3 we know the starters play about 3 quarters or so, and we'll have a big helping of talented starters playing for two powerhouse offensive teams. And they're going to be taking on defenses that are not necessarily game planning to stifle them. And while it helps that we get the 3rd highest scoring team in the AFC last year, a team with an elite skill position core in the quartet of Matt Schaub at QB, Andre Johnson at RB, and Owen Daniels at TE, the real value here is on the Saints side.
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There is no other team in the NFL that is more excited about having a big offensive year than the Saints. Losing one of the best (if not the best) offensive architect in the league in Sean Payton to suspension was a big blow to this team. Drew Brees obviously has some pep in his step (14-18 for 202 yards in the first half on Friday night) and is getting a lot of work in to implement all the ideas that Payton had in the long hours when he wasn't coaching youth football last fall.
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The Saints unexpectedly cut a bunch of players on Monday, including veteran WR's Steve Breaston and Patrick Crayton. That's how happy they are with their young receiving corps of Kenny Stills, Nick Toon, Andy Tanner, and Preston Parker, who have all played well during in camp. If you're Sean Payton, wouldn't you work to get these young legs a lot of chances to build timing with Drew Brees in this one?
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Both starting QB's will see action in this one before riding the pine in week 4. And week 3 is when Drew Brees gets his offense truly ready. The Saints have been in games with totals of 61, 60, 57, and 52 the past four years in Week 3. This is a rematch from week 3 last preseason and these two teams combined for 48 points…..in the first half alone.
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A regular season game would see this total in the 50s, with two defenses that would be much more concerned with game planning to stop their opponents. Even more value delivered from the strong trend of Sunday and Monday games to go over in the preseason. Solid over play in this one.
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I'd strongly consider making some of your bet as a 1st half OVER 24-120.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas vs. ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The White Sox pulled the upset Saturday, beating the Rangers & Yu Darvish as a huge underdog, in walkoff fashion no less. Chicago has now won seven of eight, one of their best stretches of the entire season. I don't see them being as fortunate today against the AL West leaders, who had won 4 in a row before yday themselves.
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Yesterday was a tough loss for the Rangers, who saw their lead in the division shrink to 2.5 games as they wasted a quality outing from starter Yu Darvish, who registered 11 strikeouts. Before the game was decided in the bottom of the ninth, the four previous runs (two a side) had all been scored in the seventh inning. Something to keep in mind is that Texas was previously 10-1 on the road in the month of August before losing last night.
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Looking at the pitching matchup, we have two starters that are currently trending away from their overall level of performance for the season. For Texas, Matt Garza has struggled lately since coming over from the Cubs. But the team has still managed to win his last three starts and his ERA on the road is 2.88 in nine starts. The White Sox remains one of the weakest offensive clubs in baseball. On the other hand, White Sox starter John Danks' numbers look good primarily because he threw eight scoreless innings his last time out vs. the Royals. But here he faces a Rangers lineup that's 26-14 vs. lefties, averaging 5.1 runs per game.