Bob Balfe
San Francisco 49ers -3
The 49ers have one of the most impressive running backs on their roster that I have ever seen. They even have Lattimore sitting out this year. This team is a superbowl winner if these guys stay healthy. Minnesota is the same old story. This 49ers team is just too quick for them. San Francisco has mobile QB's that use their feet to extend drives. Take the 49ers.
Joe Duffy
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Minnesota Vikings +3
The 49ers definitely sound like this is more of an opening preseason game than the so-called, “dress rehearsal.”
Colin Kaepernick is only expected to play briefly at QB to give four stiff battling for the backup signal-calling job. Seneca Wallace has not played in the NFL since the 2010 season, yet may be the backup. Scott Tolzien, Colt McCoy, rookie B.J. Daniels, the mistake machine in college are expected to get most of the playing time. They make Jacksonville’s QBs sound good.
It does not look like San Francisco is playing too many key players much. Frank Gore, who had two carries Aug. 16 at Kansas City, should get a similar workload against the Vikings, Harbaugh said.
Vikings superstar Adrian Peterson is likely to make his preseason debut tonight. All indications are that Minnesota will take this game a bit more seriously. We look for them to win it outright.
Doug Upstone
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh finds themselves tied for first heading into today's action. They have a solid advantage on the hill with A.J. Burnett who was brilliant his last time out on this road trip. More of the same against a mediocre SF lineup and pitcher Ryan Vogelsong who is just 1-3 for his career against the Pirates.
Wunderdog
Seattle at San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio +1.5
Seattle has a losing record on the road, but opened as the favorite in San Antonio. It's the middle of a three-game road trip for Seattle, playing two games here in San Antonio, today and Tuesday. In the last 50 games between these Western rivals, the home team has won 32 games compared to 18 wins for the road team. Seattle is not a strong offensive team, 70.8 ppg ranks 11th in the WNBA, and they are 12th in rebounding, which hurts on the road. The San Antonio Silver Stars are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss, and they are home after playing four of five away. San Antonio is a good three point shooting team (fifth in the WNBA), and the Silver Stars are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. When San Antonio has been the home team in this series, they are 14-9 against Seattle straight up. Plus, the Silver Stars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games, making this a great spot for the home team. Play the San Antonio Silver Stars.
John Ryan
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game. These two teams played 18 innings before Arizona scored 5 times and won the game 12-7 marking the longest game played (number of innings) in Phillies history. Both teams exhausted their bullpens and Phillies used two position players to pitch the 18th. The initial line shows the Phillies to be installed as a dog and the public is all over the Diamondbacks. Sunday's starter was to be Tyler Cloude, but he was called into action throwing five scoreless innings last night. Former ace Roy Halladay was to make his FIRST rehab start at AA-Reading today, but has now been called upon to make his first rehab start in Philadelphia. He will most assuredly be on a short leash and a low pitch count around 60/65 pitches. The public is focused only on the Phillies lack of pitching depth in the bullpen. However, I strongly believe that the Phillies offense will have a huge day led by Darren Ruf, who has had nine home runs in the month of August. This has broken the franchise record for home runs in a month by a rookie previously held by Ryan Howard. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-30 mark for 52 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) with a struggling bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities and facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season. Take the Phillies.
Bill Biles
Colorado Rockies -114
The Rockies send out pitcher Jorge De La Rosa who seeks his fourth straight win and 14th overall. De La Rosa has a 2.45 ERA while winning his last three. De La Rosa has also won three straight against the Marlins, posting a 1.59 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings over his last four starts. He scattered five hits over six shutout innings in the last meeting, a 2-1 win on July 24.
Jeff Alexander
San Diego Padres -150
The Cubs came out on top yesterday, but they are still only 3-10 in their last 13. Plus, they've lost Game 3 in their last 7 series and are 0-5 Rusin's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Cubs have dropped 5 of their last 6 in San Diego, and they'll have their hands full with Cashner, who has held 7 straight opponents to 3 earned runs or less. The Padres have played winning baseball at home this season, and the Cubs are just 27-57 in their last 84 road games versus a club with a winning home record.
Dave Price
Colorado Rockies -114
The Marlins have struggled immensely versus left-handed starters this season. They are batting .225 and scoring just 2.6 runs per game against them. I expect these struggles to continue as they go up against Colorado's De La Rosa. De La Rosa has been the bread-winner for the Rockies. They are 14-6 in his last 20 starts overall, 40-11 in his last 51 starts as a favorite and 38-15 in his last 53 starts versus teams with a losing record. He's been lights out lately, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Marlins, meanwhile, have lost 6 of Turner's last 7 starts, and he checks in with a 4.80 ERA over his last 3 starts. Take Colorado.
Larry Ness
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks
The D’backs and Phillies went 18 innings on Saturday, with Arizona prevailing 12-7 in a game which lasted over seven hours,. The Phillies used 11 pitchers (including Sunday’s scheduled starter Tyler Cloyd) while the D’backs used nine. Philadelphia interim manager Ryne Sandberg will turn to the one pitcher who is completely rested on Sunday; Roy Halladay. The two-time Cy Young Award winner takes the mound for the first time since May 5 in the rubber match of the three-game series. And just who will he face? How about MLB’s top-earner, Patrick Corbin (D’backs are 21-4 in his starts, plus-$1,588).
Halladay was originally slated to make a third rehab start for Double-A Reading but a bevy of tired arms and the ace's proximity were likely factors for Sandberg to call an audible. The 36-year-old is working his way back after undergoing right shoulder surgery on May 16. Halladay has enjoyed success vs Arizona, posting a 4-1 mark with two complete games and an impressive 0.90 WHIP. However, in his last two starts before he went on the DL, Halladay allowed 13 hits (including four HRs), six walks and 17 ERs over just six innings (that’s a 25.50 ERA!). Remember, Halladay struggled in 2012 as well, posting a 4.49 ERA over 25 starts, before posting an 8.65 ERA in seven starts in 2013.
Charlie Scott
Saints vs. Texans
Play: Over 43.5
I expect both Coaches to take preseason week #3 serious. Both Teams have high powered Offense's and can score points with a variety of weapons.. Plus Saints Coach Sean Payton will throw and try to score in the 4th Quarter whether the Saints are up or down 20. play early as this line will go up !
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans/ Houston Over 43.5: The Saints offense is starting to get it together and with Drew Brees and company playing at least the first half I expect them to put up some points in this one. The Houston offense has been solid in the early going, putting up 25.5 ppg and 427 ypg so far. The Saint defense has looked very good so far, but they were playing the Raiders and Chiefs in their first two games, so not much stock in that. The Houston defense has played well, but they haven't played good offenses in Miami and Minnesota. This is a good offense they will face today. The Texans have throw for 304 ypg so far, while the Saints have put up 297 ypg through the air. This one should be a shootout.
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L.A. Angels/SEATTLE Over 7½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is probably the only site on the internet that warned you all about Jered Weaver. We’ve been maintaining that Weaver is a stiff and that his results have been fueled by pure luck and finally, true to what his skills suggest, Weaver has been whacked in back-to-back starts to the tune of 17 hits and 13 runs in 11 innings. Almost every ball hit of Weaver is hit hard and it’s been that way, not for two starts but the entire season. Weaver’s line-drive rate of 30% over the past two months is one of the worst marks in baseball and it’s on par with guys like Bruce Chen and Joe Blanton. Weaver has consistently been able to stave off hit %, strand % and hr/f regression over his career but his margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller. His fastball velocity has dipped to even new lows and now sits at 86.6 MPH. On the road this season, Weaver is 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Weaver’s luck has finally run out over his past couple of games and the only reason we’re not fading him here is because Aaron Harang is on the other side.
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Harang seems to really, really like the AL West but he's playing with fire now. His command has been eroding for three years. Anytime Harang throws a good game it’s because of elevated strand levels and pure luck. Harang is an innings eater for a non-contending team and he’s running out of gas. Over his past 24 innings, covering just five starts, Harang has walked 10 batters and has posted a 1.54 WHIP, a 7.13 ERA and an xERA of 5.95. He’s also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 29%/46%. Current Angels are hitting .350 off Harang with 57 hits in 163 career AB’s. That includes 11 jacks and an unsightly 1.049 OPS. Matt Harvey and Max Scherzer hooked up yesterday and the total in that game was 6. This total is 1½-runs higher than that one and these are two pitchers who are among the most hittable in the game. They are both playing with fire and if this game stays under this total, it’ll only be because we got extremely unlucky.
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Minnesota +156 over CLEVELANDFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indians went off for seven runs yesterday but that came against Liam Hendricks, an unknown stiff with a horrible history at this level. After Hendricks was knocked out in the fourth inning, the Indians did not score again the rest of the day. Cleveland’s bats have gone cold. They are hitting just .224 over their past 20 games, which is the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the entire league. With Scott Kazmir starting today, the Tribe are likely going to have to score a bunch to win because Kazmir is fighting it big time. He recently missed a start with a fatigued arm and returned one week ago in Oakland. Kazmir allowed 10 hits and five runs in five innings in Oakland and looked dreadful. Kazmir has given up five runs in back-to-back starts. His groundball rate over his last four starts has dipped from 41% on the year to 22% over that stretch. That’s troubling. His WHIP is also trending the wrong way, which was at a pedestrian 1.33 to begin with but over his last four starts, Kazmir’s WHIP has climbed to 1.68. Remember, Scott Kazmir missed all of 2011 and 2012. The Tribe took a flyer on him and for the most part, it’s worked out ok. Thing is, he’s ran out of steam and has already thrown 119 innings after a two-year hiatus. Everything in his profile, from more walks to less strikeouts to more fly-balls and line-drives to less groundouts all scream to stay away from him.
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Mike Pelfrey isn’t going to attract as lot of attention today because he’s about as ordinary as they come, at least on the surface but we’re here to tell you that Pelfrey looks very interesting. In June and July, Pelfrey posted a 3.35 ERA and lasted at least six innings in six of seven starts. His shortest outing during the span was 5.2 innings. On May 31, Pelfrey’s ERA was 6.66 but he has cut 1½ runs off that mark and his ERA now sits at 5.19. Pelfrey has allowed three runs or less in 10 of 13 starts since May 31. June 1 marked the 13th month since Pelfrey had Tommy John surgery, and his elbow finally appears back to normal. Over the past two months, his fastball has consistently clocked at 93-94 mph. In a recent string of four starts against Toronto, Tampa, Cleveland and the Angels, Pelfrey posted a 2.28 ERA. Mike Pelfrey is not only far, far under the radar, he’s actually pitching better than he has in years and Minnesota has won three of his past four starts while Scott Kazmir is hanging on by a thread. In terms of value, this one offers up as much or more than any other on the board today because Minnesota’s chances of winning are probably better than Cleveland’s chances.
Craig Davis
Sunday's free play release is the Yankees to avoid the sweep in Tampa.
They have played too well over the past month to let it all slip away. After hitting well and pitching well enough to be a playoff team recently, they have dropped the first two games of this three game set in Tampa Bay and simply can't afford too many more losses.
It's probably not realistic to think they can reach the pinnacle of winning the AL East, but they can still shoot for one of the two Wild Card spots... but they have to win games like they have in front of them today.
Not only that, but we get real value here today as the Yanks are sitting around +140 with Ivan Nova on the hill.
Nova (7-4, 3.17 ERA) is 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA over his last eight starts since the All Star break. His last start, however, was his worst of the eight... yet he received tons of run support and earned an 8-4 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.
To be completely honest, I don't care about the pitching matchup today... I care about the attitude of the Yankees overall... and if they have any hope of making the post-season, they must muster a win this afternoon --- no matter who is on the hill.
Take New York as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
My Sunday free play will be for the Brewers and Reds to conclude their series with another Over.
Friday the teams combined for 10 runs, while last night they plated 9 combined runs, as both so far this weekend have managed to find their way Over the posted price.
Milwaukee has now been Over the total in each of their last 6 games, and while starter Marco Estrada has a 2.65 ERA for his last 3 starts, he did allow 4 earned runs to score in 6 innings in his last start against St. Louis, as the Over moved to 3-1 the last 4 times he has made the start.
Greg Reynolds will go today for the Reds, as he makes only his second start of the year. If it is anything like his first - 5 innings, 8 hits, and 5 runs back on July 23rd - then I would not suspect Reynolds will be around much past the 5th inning this time out either.
The Reds are now on a 4-1-2 Over clip their last 7 games, and with Reynolds pretty much untested in the starter's role, cannot see how one would think this game is going to be a lower-scoring affair.
Only a matter of time before the runs get rolling today in the Queen City.
Milwaukee and Cincinnati to play Over the total on Sunday.
3♦ MILWAUKEE-CINCINNATI OVER
Brad Wilton
My Sunday free play comes in preseason football as I back the Saints and the Texans to go Over the posted total.
After a 17-13 Under for New Orleans in their opening practice game, the Saints got the offense cranking a bit last Friday night in their 28-20 home win - and Over - versus Oakland.
Houston has been as consistent as you can get in their first 2 preseason affairs, scoring 27 at Minnesota and 24 last week at home against Miami. The Texans are 1-0-1 Over the total in their pair of exhibition games thus far.
With the starters going a little longer in this affair, I can see the offenses getting into a rhythm, and the points adding up on the scoreboard.
This total is right around 43 1/2 points as I post my analysis, and so we are looking at 6 touchdowns with a few field goals sprinkled in. Expect that to happen, and expect the Saints and Texans to play an Over on Sunday afternoon.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS-HOUSTON OVER