Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday August, 26

Hollywood Sports

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets
Prediction: New York Jets

The Jets (0-2) need to use their "dress rehearsal" third exhibition game to generate some momentum for the regular season after dropping their first two preseason games by a combined 43-9 score. Of greatest importance for New York is getting their offense moving as they have managed only 21 first downs in two games while accumulating a mere 363 yards of offense in their two games. The Jets are in the first year under new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano so some growing pains in implementing his offensive scheme was to be expected -- but now this team needs to gain confidence by generating producing some successful drives for both Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. This is a team a year removed from two straight appearances in the AFC Conference championship game so this remains a talented team. And the defense remains strong as they have allowed only 443 total yards combined in their first two preseason games. The Jets should rebound in this preseason game as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 exhibition games following a preseason loss in the Rex Ryan era. Carolina (1-1) enters this game coming off a 23-17 win versus Miami as a 3-point favorite which was just the 1st point-spread victory for the Panthers for head coach Ron Rivera in his last 5 preseason games he has coached. But Rivera is still concerned about the strength of his bench after seeing the Dolphins outscore them in the second half by a 10-3 margin. Rivera called out his non-starters in preparation for that game after seeing Houston outscore his club in the second half by a 13-0 margin. Look for the Jets' starting units to play into the 3rd quarter and exit the game to then leave the superior New York bench to outplay the struggling Carolina second and third stringers. Lay the points with the Jets.

John Ryan

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

5* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Denver Broncos in NFL exhibition action set to start at 4:00 PM ET, Sunday, August 26, 2012 . Both teams are 1-1 in the NFLX season and the 49ers will be looking to focus on the defensive side of the ball for this game.

The 49ers won the first game of the NFLX 17-6 over Minnesota and covered as three point favorites. The UNDER was a cashing ticket in easy fashion with a 34 point posted total at most shops. In Game 2, the 49ers lost at Houston 20-9 and failed to cover as three point dogs. The UNDER cashed easily with a lined total for 38 points for that game,

In the first game against the Vikings, the 49ers offensive units were strong running the ball and gained 260 rushing yards on 42 carries. However, the running game stumbled a bit as many of the offensive line missed zone block assignments. It was not a horrid running game for the 49ers as they did gain 118 yards on 24 carries. The running game, though is something that will be near the top for the priority list in this game.

I do think the 49ers will have a significant advantage against the Denver defense in play action sets. The 49ers have completed 37 passes of 67 attempts for 391 pasing yards in their first two games. The focus on the running game will provide any of the 49ers quarterbacks with significant vertical routes using play action.

The Peyton Manning era has begun for the Denver Broncos. Denver destroyed the Chicago Bears in their first preseason game 31-3 and covered as three point road dogs. Despite the high scoring outburst by the Broncos the total was a push lined at 34 points. Manning was the second quarterback to enter the game and was 4-for-7 with a horrid 35.7 quarterback rating. In the second game, the Broncos lost to the Seattle Seahawks 30-10 with a pick-em line and the UNDER won by the slimmest of margins with a posted total of 40 at most shops.

In the 30-10 loss to Seattle, Manning started and played extensively completing 16-of-23 pass attempts for 1177 passing yards, but had two interceptions and a terrible 55.9 quarterback rating. he is showing rust to say the least and I believe the 49ers defense will not allow him any chance to get into his old form even though this is a meaningless game.

Simulator Projections

The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will easily win this game by five or more points. The simulator also shows a high probability that Denver will gain less than 100 rushing yards in this game. In past NFLX games, Denver is just 3-13 ATS when they rush for between 75 and 100 rushing yards.

First-Half Total Opportunity

With both teams having either low production on the scoreboard or erratic results, they will be looking to establish a consistent effort in the first half, which I believe will lead to points.

Supporting this opportunity is a system that has produced a record of 26-7 for 79% winners since 1993. Play OVER with home teams against the first half total after a loss by 14 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. Consider a fast start by the 49ers and for the combined score to go OVER the first half total. For the game, I like the 49ers as a 5* graded play.

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Colorado Rockies

The Cubs fit a negative system here that plays against home dogs off a home favored loss in a game where the total was posted at 10 or higher and they scored 4 or less runs with 4 or less men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog win and that also scored 4 or less runs. These home dogs have lost the last five times in this system. Chacin has won 2 of his 3 road starts this season and 3 of his last 4 August road starts. Volstad for the Cubs has a 7.41 home era and is 0-5 at home. He also has an elevated era at 6.20 vs Colorado. Look for the Rockies to take down the Cubs today.

Scott Spreitzer

St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

It took Adam Wainwright a few starts to get it together after returning from Tommy John surgery, but he's on fire now. Wainwright has posted a 1.98 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 0.28 HR's per 9 IP mark over his last nine starts, spanning 63 2/3 innings. And while the Redbird righty has been on fire, Cincinnati's Homer Bailey has not. Bailey has been tagged for 20 earned runs and a whopping 50 base runners in his last five starts, spanning just 26 innings of work. That's a 6.92 ERA & 1.92 WHIP. His home numbers on the season leave a lot to be desired as does the righthander's career marks in 11 starts against St. Louis. The Reds cooled off the Cardinals in the first two games of the series, but I expect the Redbirds to stave off the sweep. I'm recommending a play on St. Louis on Sunday afternoon.

MTi Sports

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Since July 2011, the Yankees are 0-8 as a 140-PLUS ROAD FAVORITE vs a starting pitcher they beat in their previous same-season match-up. Note that New York has lost these eight games by an average of 3.0 runs. Note that this trend was active yesterday when Masterson beat NY 3-1. Consider Cleveland.

Tom Freese

Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

The 56-69 Royals are on the road at the 60-67 Red Sox on Sunday for Game 3 of their 3 game series in Boston. Boston gives the rock to 10-6 Doubront while 4-5 Smith gets the nod for Los Angeles. Doubront starts his day off with a 4.70 ERA Overall giving up 64 earned runs in 122.7 innings pitched allowing 52 BB and recording 119 K's. On the other side of the grass, Smith begins the Day with a 5.40 ERA giving up 34 earned runs in 56.7 innings pitched allowing 20 BB and recording 38 K's. The Royals are 0-9 in their last 9 Road Games against teams with losing records and 1-4 in their last 5 Games as a Road Underdog. Also, 1-4 in their last 5 Games against American League East Clubs. The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 Games as a Favorite and 4-1 in their last 5 when Doubront starts as that Favorite. Boston and Doubront win easily today.

Dave Cokin

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

No chance I'm stepping in front of what is now the Adam Wainwright express. He's as go with as it gets right now, so I'll back the Cardinals to defeat the Reds today.

Jim Feist

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Kansas City Royals

the Red Sox likely have many things on their mind other than baseball here on Sunday. The Sox unloaded a ton of salary on Saturday as the trade with the LA Dodgers went through. Boston sends 1b Adrian Gonzalez, pitcher Josh Beckett and OF Carl Crawford to the LA for James Loney and some pitching prospects. This likely finishes the Red Sox for 2012, as they sit 13 1/2 games back in the division. The white flag has been raised in Boston for this year. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals have been playing decent ball, winners of six of their last 10 games. The Royals beat the Red Sox in extra innings on Saturday, 10-9. Good spot here for the Royals to win again as the Sox are definitely a team in flux. Take the visiting Kansas City Royals.

JR O'Donnell

Cincinnati Reds +120

Let's back Homer Bailey and these red hot 77-51 Cinnci Reds +120 and the Reds have reeled off a 5-1 last 6 record and look to hang up win # 42 @ the GABP....@ 1:05 PM.... WE WILL BACK "H Bailey" off a sweet outing last time vs Phila ... a winner... He checks in @ 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in two starts against St. Louis this season. The Reds get our call!!!

CHUCK O'BRIEN

Today it's going to be the Baltimore Orioles getting it done over the slumping Toronto Blue Jays.

I am really tempted to scrap the relatively cheap price on the O's and play them on the Run Line, but I'll leave it as is. I think Chris Tillman is in a good spot to throw a complete game. He comes in after winning in Texas last Tuesday, allowing just three earned runs in 6-2/3 innings. He used his blazing fastball consistently up in the zone to frustrate Rangers hitters, and finished with seven strikeouts. He is 2-1 with a 4.56 ERA at Camden Yards, while he brings his season mark of 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA.

On the other the Blue Jays hand the ball to right-hander Henderson Alvarez, who is in after allowing a career-high eight runs and 12 hits over 4-1/3 innings during his last start against Texas. That marked the third time in four starts that Alvarez was unable to record more than five innings. Alvarez hasn't won since July 28. He ain't winning today.

Take the O's.

4* BALTIMORE

SCOTT DELANEY

My free pick for today is going to be the Texas Rangers on the Run Line, as they bring a four-game win streak into their series finale against the Minnesota Twins, who have lost five in a row.

An intriguing matchup on the mound, no doubt about it, as Scott Feldman toes the slab for the Rangers, and young Cole De Vries is up for Minnesota. Both have struggled of late, and yet I know both are better than what they've had on display.

With Feldman, we have a hurler who is in after suffering his third straight loss after allowing five runs on seven hits over five innings of a 5-3 loss to the Orioles last Tuesday. But with a 2-1 mark in 12 career games - including four starts - against the Twins, I think he'll be toeing the slab with plenty of confidence.

As for De Vries, well, after the Minnesota-native allowed 11 runs over 5-1/3 innings in his previous two starts, he actually fared better against Oakland last Tuesday. The crafty righty allowed just two runs on six hits over 5-2/3 innings, while strikin out three and walking three. He is 2-5 with a 4.89 ERA this season, and I just don't believe he knows what he's getting into against the best-hitting team in the bigs.

Lay the run line with the Rangers.

2* TEXAS -1.5

CRAIG DAVIS

For Sunday, go with the Washington Nationals as your free play.

Philly sends Cliff Lee to the hill this afternoon, and he hasn't won a game since the last time he beat the Nats. It's amazing to think a guy like Lee can have so many games under his belt in a season and only have a record of 2-7.

The Nats are trying to avoid their first four-game losing streak since June 15-19... and I have the sneaking suspicion it's not going to happen again today. The good news for the Nats is that they likely get two hitters back for today's game... Ian Desmond (missed two games), is 5 for 12 with two homers and three RBIs in his last three games. Michael Morse is hitting .324 with eight homers and 26 RBIs on the road this season but was hit with a pitch Friday and is hoping to get back in the lineup today.

Cliff Lee (2-7, 3.78 ERA) hasn't won since July 31... and that was a shutout win over the Nats in Washington. True, his numbers against the Nats over the last few years have been good, but this is a different year and a different pitcher. He's 0-1 with a 3.99 ERA in four games since his victory last month.

Jordan Zimmermann (9-7, 2.54) is scheduled to start opposite Lee, and he's been less-than-himself over his last two starts (0-1 with a 5.06 ERA), but he'll be glad to get back on the road where he pitches much better.

He was 6-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his previous nine starts... and the majority of those were on the road. The last time he faced the Phillies, he came away with a 5-2 win at Philly.... again, another road win.

Should be a close one, but I'll take a chance on the Nats as your free play of the day.

3* WASHINGTON

DOM CHAMBERS

Let’s take a look at the Atlanta Braves against the San Francisco Giants.

For the Braves, Tim Hudson starts. He has been solid, going 12-4 with a 3.69 ERA. On the road, he has been very effective, going 5-1 with a 3.36 ERA.

He will be going up against Tim Lincecum, who starts for the Giants. He has had an inconsistent season. He is 7-13 with a 5.30 ERA. In his last three starts, he has gotten a little better, going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA.

The Giants have been on a roll before losing Saturday. They have won their previous five games.

Both squads are focused for a playoff run and the with Hudson, the Braves have the pitching edge in this matchup.

Put Hudson in a pitchers’ park and it gets even better for him.

Look for the Giants to have their troubles scoring.

Take the Braves.

2* BRAVES

MATT RIVERS

For Sunday, free play winner is the Tigers to dump the Angels.

The teams have split the first two games in this three game set, and both are contending for the wild card spots available in the American League. Have to side with the host here, as starter Max Scherzer's 2.98 ERA for his last ten starts looms large against the Halos.

Detroit has been able to win eight of Scherzer's last ten outings, and they have won four of their last five games overall heading into this finale. The Tigers are also on a 5-2 run the last seven series meetings dating back to last year versus the Angels.

Ervin Santana will counter and is looking for his third straight win, but the problem is his ERA on the highway is over six for the season.

Look for the Tigers to add to that lofty road ERA, as Detroit claims the rubber game today.

3* DETROIT