JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Yankees-Indians game.
Both games this weekend have stayed on the lower side of things, Friday's game a combined four runs and last night's game also saw a combined four runs. That changes today with Freddy Garcia and Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound.
Garcia just allowed five runs in his last start at Chicago, and for the season sports an over six ERA when pitching during the day. Two of his last three starts have ended up playing Over the total.
Ubaldo Jimenez' ERA is over eight for his last three starts, and he has allowed at least three runs to score in seven of his last eight starts. His 6.39 season ERA when pitching in the afternoon tells you all you need to know about the chances of this game being a low-scoring contest.
After Unders in the first two games of this series, look for the bats to stay active today, and for the Yanks and Tribe to play to an Over in the series finale.
4* N.Y.YANKEES-CLEVELAND OVER
Jimmy Boyd
New York Mets -138
The Mets ended their skid with a 3-1 win Saturday, and I expect them to build on it against a Houston club that has now dropped 44 of its last 52 games. It is also worth noting that the Mets are 22-10 in their last 32 home games against the Astros.
Jeremy Hefner has been far from lights out, but the Mets have won 2 of his last 3 starts, and he has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 4 of his last 6 starts. He has a 5.63 ERA in his starts this season, but I don't see that as a deterrent considering the Astros are 0-10 in road games versus an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.20-5.70 over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Astros are only 4-11 in Lucas Harrell's 15 road starts this year. Bet the Mets.
Marc Lawrence
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Miami Marlins
The Marlins and Dodgers put the wraps on this three-game series in Los Angeles Sunday afternoon where Mark Buehrle toes the slab for the Fish. Buehrle enters the contest in solid KW form with 12 strikeouts and 2 walks in his last three starting efforts. With his counterpart, Aaron Harang, having trouble finding the plate of late (15 walks and 17 strikeouts last four starts), look for the steady serves of Buehrle to be the edge here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.
John Ryan
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they host the Washington Nationals set to start at 1:35 PM ET. Phillies are certainly building toward next season and are 8-3 in their last 11 series with a four-game tie of the Cincinnati Reds. They have already won this series against the NL East division leading Nationals and look for the sweep this afternoon.
Very hard to have imagined that Cliff Lee would have just two wins in 22 starts this season, but that is where he stands right now. he has been the victim of low offensive output and also self-inflicted situations where he simply threw the wrong pitch and missed his spot just enough for the batter to get a critical run scoring hit. He is 0-1 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.172 WHIP striking out 27 batters in this three starts spanning 21 ⅓ innings of work. In his last start, he pitched well enough to win, but got a no-decision allowing two earned runs, walking one, and striking out nine batters in a 5-4 Phillies loss to the Reds.
With the addition of some Triple-A players, who are playing like MLB veterans, the Phillies offensive attack has come to life batting .299 and scoring 5.4 RPG over their last seven games. Catcher, Eric Kratz, has filled in admirably for all star Carlos Ruiz batting .303 with a .671 slugging-percentage, and has called great games. Third baseman, Frandsen has filled for Palonco and perhaps has replaced him permanently batting .344 and has gained the confidence of skipper Manuel, who has moved him to second in the batting order.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 188-90 for 68% winners and has made 61.6 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season.
The bottom line is that Washington has a terrible offense ranking near the bottom in the majority of meaningful offensive stats. When they face starting arsenal, like Philadelphia, they struggle to score runs. Even though they have the best pitching staff in MLB, you still have to score at least one run to win a game. Take the Philadelphia Phillies.
Jesse Schule
Marlins vs. Dodgers
Pick: Over
The Dodgers made a big statement acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and Josh Beckett from the Red Sox, and it didn't take long for the move to start paying dividends. Gonzalez belted a three run home run in his first at bat in a Dodgers uniform, and the Dodgers went on to win 8-2. They will be looking to keep the pedal to the metal today, going up against Mark Buerhle.
Buerhle (11-11, 3.69 ERA) is coming off back to back wins over the D'Backs and the Phillies. Prior to that he had not been sharp, going 0-3 in five starts. He has struggled on the road all season long, going 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA away from Miami.
He faced the Dodgers on August 10, and the outcome was a 5-2 loss for the Marlins, with Buerhle allowing four runs on seven hits over six innings. Matt Kemp will be looking to continue his success against Buerhle, he's hitting .444 with a double in nine at bats in his career. Shane Victorino has also hit Buerhle well, batting .375 with a double and a home run in eight at bats. Juan Rivera has three home runs against Buerhle, hitting .265 in 34 at bats.
The Dodgers will send Aaron Harang to the hill this afternoon, he is coming off back to back wins. Harang (9-7, 3.65 ERA) allowed just a single run on four hits over six innings in a 6-2 win over Atlanta his last time out. The bad news is, he did walk five batters, and only threw 58 of 115 pitches for strikes.
The last four meetings between these teams has seen the total go OVER at a rate of 3-0-1.
Dave Essler
Marlins / Dodgers Over 8
Perhaps this seems a bit obvious, and I'd love to wait for the lineups, but during the day the ball just travels better in Dodger Stadium. There's a bit of a helping wind, but perhaps more importantly I do not trust Buerhle OR Harang here. I think both teams get to four, making this a winner. Miami bullpen was used a fair bit last night, and I don't think we can overlook the obvious when it comes to the new Dodger lineup. In short, shy of a pitchers' duel, there are too many ways this is not at least a push, which is a calculated risk as always. Los Angeles could well get them all, or of course Miami is quite capable of scoring in bunches and have hit Harang well in the past.
Tony George
SF Giants -119
Like them off a loss (4-0 last 4 games off a loss) and Lincecum is killing it since the all star break big time. As a favorite of -150 or less the Giants are 21-7 their last 28...they bounce back at home against the Braves tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND +146 over N.Y. Yankees
Freddy Garcia is about as ordinary as they come. He has a BAA of .277, a 4.96 ERA, he rarely finishes the sixth inning and the Yankees have lost four of his past seven starts. It sure doesn’t help that the Yanks have lost four of five on this current road trip and have scored just eight runs over their last four games.
The Indians have dropped from contenders to also-rans in almost record time. They recently had an 11-game losing streak and snapped a nine-gamer yesterday. However, one win does wonders to a teams’ psyche (they went on to win four of six after snapping that 11-game losing streak) and playing the Yankees provides all the motivation.
Ubaldo Jiminez is anything but ordinary. His season has been both interesting and disappointing, marked with the occasional dominant performance that we used to see with regularity. The culprit? 80 walks in 143 innings will do in anyone. A closer look reveals that Jiminez is on the verge of regaining his command. He’s walked just four batters while striking out 22 over his past 15.2 innings. He’s also 5-3 at Progressive Field with a very respectable 3.39 ERA. He’s only pitched twice at home since the all-star break, once against the Tigers and once against the Red Sox. In those two starts, he shut out the Tigers in six frames and struck out 10 Red Sox. Jiminez is so much more talented than Garcia but the line does not reflect so, thus creating the value here.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is the Chicago White Sox getting it done against the Seattle Mariners. I know this is a steep price, but I'll be damned if I'm going to give out a run line and watch the White Sox eke out another one-run ball game. Not worth it, and besides this is simply a free choice and the $1.55 isn't that bad.
Not when we're talking about a team that has won five in a row.
Chicago's Gavin Floyd is arguably pitching for a spot in the rotation, as he comes in after a rough start against the New York Yankees, lasting just 2-1/3 innings. He is 1-0 in his last three starts, but he also has a sky-high ERA of 5.65. I suspect we're going to see some of his best stuff on the hill today, as he's going to come in motivated.
He should get plenty of run support, as the South Siders take on right-hander Kevin Millwood, who has struggled for the Mariners this season, going 4-10 with a 4.29 ERA. He is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA in his last three trips to the hill, and is just 1-6 with a 4.68 ERA over his last 15 starts.
Take the Sox today, as they'll get it done to complete the sweep of the M's.
3♦ CHICAGO
Andy Iskoe
49ers +1½
Given HC Jim Harbaugh’s competitive nature, he was none too pleased at his 49er offense’s inability to score a TD in last week’s loss at Houston. Peyton Manning continues to get comfortable with his new receivers in Denver where a primary concern remains working on offensive line play to keep him upright. 49ers.
Panthers +3
The Jets have all sorts of issues with an offense that has yet to score a TD in preseason. The offensive line is a mess and the skill position talent marginal at best. Carolina appears set to start the season and we should see the Jets take more chances in this game. Jets.
Joe Gavazzi
Texas -1½
The Twins and Rangers are headed opposite directions; Minnesota is on negative runs of 2-14, 1-10, and 0-5. The Rangers have won7/8 and 4 straight, over which time they have a .373 BA and have averaged 9.8 RPG. The real news here comes with the run line numbers! 32/38 Minnesota road losses have come by 2 or more runs! 61/75 Texas wins this season have come by 2 or more runs and in the last 2 years, 60/73 Texas home wins have come by 2 or more runs! Make your play on the run line today with the Red Hot Rangers!
Wunderdog
Houston at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets -145
Houston is an abysmal 13-52 on the road, easily the worst in baseball away from home. In addition, they have packed the season in since mid-August riding a 2-10 run, including a 3-1 loss yesterday. They've scored 1 run or less five times in 12 games! Starter Lucas Harrell is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA his last three starts and the Astros are 4-11 in Harrells last 15 road starts. Houston is on an 8-44 overall! The Mets have an excellent control pitcher in Jeremy Hefner, who has walked just ten in 61+ innings, including three in his last three starts (16+ innings) and Houston has never seen him. The Astros are 10-22 in the last 32 meetings in New York against the Mets so grab the home team. Play the NY Mets.
Jack Jones
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Sunday: Chicago White Sox -160
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The Chicago White Sox just keep winning without getting any respect. Chicago (70-55) sits in first place in the AL Central division, and it is red hot right now. The White Sox have won five straight coming into this one, scoring a combined 32 runs in the process.
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I'll gladly fade Seattle's Kevin Millwood, who is 4-10 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.395 WHIP over 24 starts this season. Millwood is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in his last three starts as well. This guy just needs to retire.
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The White Sox are 15-3 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. The Mariners are 0-7 in Millwood's last 7 road starts. Seattle is 1-8 in Millwood's last 9 starts as an underdog. The White Sox are 4-0 in Floyd's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago is 33-10 in Floyd's last 43 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Bet the White Sox Sunday.
DAVID BANKS
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Panthers / Jets Under 40.5
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It will be a high-powered offense taking on a stout defense when Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) visit the New York Jets (0-2, 0-2 ATS) Sunday night at 8:00 ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ in a game carried on NBC. The flip side however is that each team has had terrible difficulty on the opposite side of the ball, which could make things very interesting while the starters are in the game, which should be into the third quarter.
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It is no secret that Newton had one of the best rookie seasons in history for a quarterback last year, and while some may be calling for some regression or a sophomore jinx, we simply feel he is too talented an athlete for that to happen and we actually expect him to progress to a monster season. For example, the one major knock against Newton last year was his passing accuracy, which he reportedly worked on during the off-season. Well, those reports would seem correct after he completed eight of his 11 passes vs. a very decent Miami Dolphins defense last week for 119 yards (a whopping 10.1 yards per attempt) and a touchdown in a 23-17 victory. The Panthers also have a nice addition this season to what was already a very good running back corps in the underrated Michael Tolbert, who is also a very good blocker and receiver out of the backfield. This has a chance to be one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Panthers could even be considered front-runners to win the NFC South if they had a defense. Unfortunately, we do not really see any improvement there from a unit that ranked 27th in scoring defense (26.8 points per game) and 28th in total defense (377.6 yards per contest) last season. They remain especially weak against the pass, and even the nondescript Miami quarterback trio of rookie Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore and Pat Devlin accumulated 275 gross passing yards last week.
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The Jets slipped noticeably on defense last season, but that unit looks like it did in the first two years under Coach Rex Ryan in the early going. The Jets held the Bengals to 17 points on only 213 total yards in their preseason opener and the 26 points that they allowed against the Giants last week was very deceptive as they allowed just 230 yards and the only touchdown that the Giants scored while the Jets' starters were in the game was a defensive score. Unfortunately, the Jets' offense is the reason that the team is 0-2 as it has managed a grand total of nine points on three field goals and no touchdowns in two games. To give you an idea of how inept the offense was last week, it averaged a disgusting 3.3 yards per pass attempt with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow being the only quarterbacks seeing action and 2.7 yards per rush while compiling just 148 total yards. The Jets still have major issues at the left tackle position with defensive linemen continually busting up plays in the backfield, so it will be interesting to see if there is any improvement vs. a weaker defense here.
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Ryan is 6-8 in preseason as coach of the Jets, but he is 2-1 in Week 3 dress rehearsals. Interestingly, Ryan may be the last coach to the best or our knowledge to play his starters into the fourth quarter in a preseason game, and that was in Week 3 vs. the Redskins two years ago. Ron Rivera is 2-4 since becoming Carolina coach last year, losing his Week 3 ballgame.
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Baltimore Orioles -119
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With Baltimore fighting for a wildcard placing, they can't lose games like this one. Toronto will start Alvarez today and he is now clearly on a major slump. He looked impressive early on the season, but he started to struggle recently, with his last outing at home against Texas showing exactly that, as he had allowed eight runs on twelve hits in just 4.1IP. He is too hittable and the Orioles will have a field day with him today, after Alvarez being very lucky on his first two starts against Baltimore this season, as he posted an ERA of 3.86 and 2.57 in those games, while having a 5.67 FIP + 5.28 xFIP and 5.81 FIP + 5.43 xFIP. It's regression time for Alvarez and he will be pounded today.
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The Orioles will start Tillman today, who has been a very solid SP in Baltimore. He is coming from an outing in Texas last Tuesday, where he allowed just three runs and six hits in 6.2 IP, in a very good performance for him. Toronto's lineup is a very poor one nowadays due to some many injuries and an in-form and solid SP like Tillman won't have problems against them today.
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With Baltimore having such a SP edge and hitting edge as well for this contest, I fully believe the Orioles won't have problems in beating Toronto today and complete the series sweep. Therefore, I'll be taking Baltimore today.