Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 28,2011

Scott Spreitzer

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

The Sox enter Sunday on a red-hot, 6-0 run as a road favorite of -1.50 or less and I expect more of the same in this one. Gavin Floyd has pitched well on the road all season and now has a chance to knock off a team he has dominated over the last couple of seasons. Floyd is 3-0 in his last three road starts, sporting a 1.64 ERA & 0.86 WHIP. He's faced Seattle five times since the start of the 2010 season, allowing just 8 earned runs and 34 base runners in 34 1/3 innings, for a 2.10 ERA & 0.99 WHIP. And he's on six days rest, leading his team to a 4-0 mark when he takes the rubber in this rare situation. The Sox are on an 8-1 run on the road against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, Seattle has won just 15 of their last 54 as an underdog, including a current 1-5 slide when priced as a dog with Vargas on the bump. We'll back the roadie in this one. I'm laying the price with the White Sox on Sunday.

Rob Vinciletti

Nationals vs. Reds
Play: Under 7.5

This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed 10 of 11 times and plays to the under for Home favorites of -140 or higher if the total is 8 or less and they are off a home favored win by 2 or more runs at -140 or higher with a total that was 8 or less and they scored 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more and scored 4 or less runs. These games average 4.7 runs per game. Washington has gone under in 5 of the last 6 and is scoring a paltry 2 runs per game the past week. They have Zimmerman going and he was stellar in nearly 6 innings against the Reds not allowing a run 10 days ago. He has pitched under in 5 straight starts and has a decent 3.02 road era. Today he opposes J. Cueto and he has a solid 1.32 home era and shut the Nationals down 11 days ago allowing 1 run in 8 strong innings. Cueto has gone under in 4 of 5 starts vs Washington. Look for another low scoring game.

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

When the Rays and Blue Jays conclude their three-game series they will pair David Price against Brandon Morrow in Toronto Sunday afternoon. Price enters the contest knowing he is 9-1 in his MLB career team starts in this series, with the loss coming in his most recent start against the Jays on August 2. He is also 5-1 away in his career team starts during the month of August, including five wins in a row. On the flip side, Morrow's home ERA (6.23) this season is nearly 3.5 runs per game worse than his road ERA (2.83) this campaign. With that look for Price to get his revenge here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Sean Murphy

Padres @ Diamondbacks
PICK: Under 7.5

A fine spot to back the 'under' here, as the Padres offense has once again gone ice cold, while the D'Backs have been a predominantly 'under' club here at home all season long.

The first two games of this series have produced a grand total of nine runs, with the D'Backs scoring eight of those. After scoring 29 runs over a four-game stretch, San Diego has now been held to just two runs over its last three games.

There's little reason to expect a bounce-back performance from the Padres at the dish on Sunday. They'll be up against one of the year's biggest surprises, Ian Kennedy. All the D'Backs right-hander has done is go 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 16-11 clip in his 27 starts.

Kennedy has simply owned the Padres since the start of last season, holding them to 20 hits and eight earned runs while posting a 41:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts, spanning 30 innings of work.

Cory Luebke will counter for the Padres. Despite his 5-6 record, he's actually pitched quite well, recording a 2.91 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 105 1/3 innings of work, splitting time out of the bullpen and as a starter.

Luebke has been at his absolute best on the road, where he's given up only 27 hits in 46 2/3 innings pitched. His 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP away from home are beyond impressive. The 'under' has cashed in four of Luebke's five road outings.

These two pitchers hooked up back on July 27th, and the result was a 4-3 D'Backs victory at Petco Park in San Diego. It's worth noting that Chase Field has played more like Petco Park than Petco Park itself this season, with the D'Backs posting a 28-35-1 o/u record.

With a pair of solid bullpens, both in excellent form right now, it's unlikely we'll see any late game shenanigans. It's up to the starters to perform well to cash this ticket, and I'm confident both will deliver.

Steve Janus

Padres/Diamondbacks Under 7.5

I don't expect to see many runs scored in the Padres/Diamondbacks showdown on Sunday. San Diego will send out Cory Luebke against Ian Kennedy in what should be a pitchers duel all the way to the finish.

Luebke has been lights out since being added to the rotation. In 11 starts he is 4-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 0.935 WHIP. He holds a 2.17 ERA in four road starts and has allowed more than 2 ER in a given start just twice.

Ian Kennedy has been strong all season. He is 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 28 starts. He holds a 3.05 ERA at home and a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in each of his last nine starts.

The under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 vs. National League West, 4-1 in Luebke's last 5 road starts, and 6-0 in Kennedy's last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Kyle Hunter

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Detroit Tigers

The Minnesota Twins have absolutely fallen apart. Minnesota is 5-21 in their last 26 games overall. A month or so ago this Twins team still had an outside chance at the division lead, but now they are fighting to stay out of the cellar. Brian Duensing has an ERA of 10.4 in his last three starts, and for the year he has an ERA of 6.43 at home. The Tigers have a much better lineup than the Twins. Detroit is 15-3 in their last 18 meetings with the Twins. At this short price, I like the Tigers ML.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

Big weekend series here in the AL West as the Angels look to cut further into the Rangers AL West lead. It didn't look good for the Angels as they trailed the Rangers by seven games on August 17th. However, in the last nine days they have shaved four games off the lead and trailed by just three heading into the weekend's games. The Angels have a good change of cutting further into that lead today with ace Jered Weaver on the mound. Weaver is 15-6 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season. After Weaver's collapse on August 13th where he allowed eight earned runs, the veteran has rebounded with two great outings where he's allowed one earned run over 14 innings while striking out 13 and walking just three. Colby Lewis will toe the rubber today for the Rangers. Lewis is 11-9 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season. The big knock against Lewis is that he is prone to the long ball. Lewis has allowed a AL-leading 30 round-trippers this season. In addition, 20 of those home runs have come at home. Lewis is coming off a poor outing where he allowed seven runs in six innings to the Red Sox. Good game here tonight, but I like the Angels. Weaver is looking in top form and the Angels are playing with confidence as they edge closer to the division lead.

EZWINNERS

Detroit Tigers -125

The Twins starting pitcher Brian Duensing has been taking a beating for Minnesota. Duensing is coming off of his worst start of the season on Tuesday. In that game against Baltimore, Duensing allowed seven runs on nine hits and only retired six of the sixteen Orioles batters that he faced. That game was Duensing's fifth straight loss and in those five starts his ERA is a hefty 8.65. Brad Penny gets the start for the Tigers. Penny is coming off of a win against the Rays and their ace David Price after pitching 6 1/3 innings of one run ball. Over his last three starts Penny is 2-0 with an ERA of 4.08 and I expect him to pitch well in this game. Penny has not been over powering, but has done a great job of changing speeds and his splitter has been nasty. The Tigers are 15-3 in the last eighteen meetings between these two teams and I look for the dominance to continue. Play on Detroit.

Vegas Experts

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

This price looks like a steal considering how awful the Twins have been playing of late. They have lost seven straight and after being held to one run or fewer in six straight games, they lost to Justin Verlander on Saturday 6-4. Starter Brian Duensing does not look like the man to stop the bleeding considering he has a 10.53 ERA L3 starts, all losses. Detroit has done very well vs. lefties in 2011, going 25-16. They are also 29-20 in day games. The Tigers have just dominated head to head play with the Twins this season, taking 11 of 14 overall, including 7 of 8 here in the Twin Cities.

Play on: Detroit

Jack Jones

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-124)

The Milwaukee Brewers simply cannot be tamed right now, and I like their chances to stay red hot against Casey Coleman and the Chicago Cubs this afternoon. Milwaukee is 26-5 over their last 31 games, winning 21 times by two runs or more.

The Brewers have a huge edge on the mound in this one, which is why I believe they will cover the Run Line with ease. Coleman is 2-6 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.980 WHIP in 11 starts and three relief appearances this season.

Zach Greinke is 12-5 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 21 starts in 2011. Greinke has been untouchable at home, going 9-0 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.051 WHIP. The Brewers are a perfect 11-0 in his home starts this year, winning eight times by two runs or more.

The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven games overall, losing five times by two runs or more. The Brewers are 12-0 vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. They are beating these teams by 2.9 RPG on average. Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Sunday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -147

Arizona has put a 6-game skid behind itself with a 5-game winning streak, and I expect the D-backs to keep rolling this afternoon against a San Diego club they have defeated 5 times in the last 6 meetings. The Snakes are in good hands with Ian Kennedy. The NL Cy Young candidate is 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA on the season. He's 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA at home. The D-backs have won 8 of his last 9 starts overall and each of his last 3 starts against the Padres. We'll take the Snakes on the money line.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +141 over ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals are overvalued daily and until that changes, we’ll continue to bet against them. They lost yesterday with Chris Carpenter on the hill and they’ve now lost eight of their last 12 games. This is a day game after a night game so expect the genius to sit at least one or two of the big three, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols or Lance Berkman. Regardless, the Cardinals are just not sharp and haven’t been for weeks. Then there’s Kyle Lohse. In August covering four starts, Lohse has an ERA of 6.52, a WHIP of 1.66 and a BAA of .300. While it’s easy to make hit% and strand% scapegoats, what he can control got worse (command, fly-ball rate) and his numbers with men on base all season long have been horrible. Lohse pitches well with the bases empty but out of the stretch he’s a mess. Jeff Karstens has a 3.99 ERA and 1.25 WHIP since July 1, numbers that are much more representative of his skills than the stats he posted in the first half. Digging deeper, Karstens has an elite command just 28 walks in 148 frames. Overall, Karstens has a 3.09 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP and he’s a much better option taking back 40 cents than Lohse is laying 50. Pirates continue to play their hearts out day in and day out while the Cards are just going through the motions on most days. Play: Pittsburgh +141 (Risking 2 units).

Houston +192 over SAN FRANCISCO

Simply stated, you can’t lay this type of juice with a Giants team that has to scratch and claw just to score one run. San Fran ranks at or near the bottom of the NL across most batting splits, and in its last nine games they have scored two runs or less six times. They beat the Astros 2-1 in two straight games and that was against J.A. Happ and Brett Myers. The Giants take a huge step up in class against Bud Norris. Norris has posted rock-solid skills in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for his development into one of the game's premium young pitchers. And his sub-4.00 xERA confirms that his current 3.73 ERA is no fluke. He has 151 k’s in 163 innings and a upward trending groundball rate of 56% over his last five starts. Meanwhile, Matt Cain needs no introduction. The guy is the model of consistency, yet he’s 10-9 in 27 starts because he gets no run support and there’s nothing to suggest that this one will be any different. Risk is worth the reward. Play: Houston +192 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay –116 over TORONTO

The Rays have won the first two games of this series and have now won 13 of its past 17 games. They’re 9-4 against the Jays this season and will feature their best pitcher today in David Price. Price has elite skills right across the board. He’s struck out 170 batters in 184 IP while walking just 45. Over the past month covering five starts, Price has posted an ERA of 2.55 and he’ll face a Jays’ offense loaded with bench players and rookies and that ranks dead last in offense in the AL in August. Colby Rasmus is out, Adam Lind is batting .155 over the past month, Yunel Escobar has six hits in his last 45 AB’s, Kelly Johnson was hitting .203 when the Jays picked him up this week and three pure rookies (Arencibia, Lawrie and Thames) pretty much round out this line-up. Which Brandon Morrow will see today? Will we see dominant Brandon? Out-of-focus Brandon? Inconsistent Brandon? Nobody knows for sure but one thing we do know is that Morrow is 4-7 at the Rogers Center with an ERA of 6.23 and that’s largely due to a horrible groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 35%/23%/42%. At this park that’s a problem and you can double that during the day in which balls fly out of this joint at a high rate. Hot versus cold laying a small tag gets the call. Play: Tampa Bay –116 (Risking 2.32 units to win 2).

David Banks

Saints / Raiders Over

The Oakland Raiders will look to get off the 2011 preseason schneid when they welcome the New Orleans Saints into O.co Coliseum for the final match-up of the Week 3 exhibition slate; kick-off is set for 8:00 ET live on NBC.

After coming out like gangbusters and embarrassing the San Francisco 49ers in every way imaginable in their first preseason tune-up of the season, QB Drew Brees and the Saints were offered up a big dose of humility by the Houston Texans en route to their 27-14 road defeat last week. New Orleans only tallied scoreboard scratches in the 2nd quarter of the game with the lone TD pass coming from backup QB Chase Daniels when he connected with WR Joseph Morgan from 56-yards out. The defeat dropped the Saints to 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their L/3 preseason road tussles.

After the Arizona Cardinals stole what looked to be a surefire victory from the Raiders in the closing moments of their NFLX Week 1 clash in the Coliseum, Oakland played the role of sacrificial lambs to the San Francisco 49ers whom they fell to in Week 2 by a 17-3 final tally. Their fans in the crowd and parking lot seemed to have more fight than they did evidenced by the countless number of skirmishes caught on tape and broadcasted all over You Tube. The Raiders barely surpassed 200 yards of combined yardage, with the trio of QBs Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller and Trent Edwards combining to throw for just 151 yards and a pair of interceptions.

Look for the home team to take the field with much determination on Sunday night knowing full well what happened the last time these teams collided in the preseason back in 2009. New Orleans spanked the then Tom Cable led Raiders by a 45-7 final tally in tonight’s venue as 2.5-point road chalk. HC Sean Payton is 12-11 SU & 13-10 ATS as the Saints head coach in the preseason as well as 5-2 SU & ATS as an exhibition season chalk the L/3 seasons. Oakland’s 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in its L/5 preseason home games, the ‘over’ cashed in each of those contests and is 8-2 O/U in the team’s L/10 overall exhibition battles.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -115

Last night's 3-0 win over the Mariners was Chicago's 10th in its last 13 road games and its fourth straight in Seattle. The White Sox are 22-8 in their last 30 meetings with the Mariners, and I expect their series dominance to continue with Floyd on the hill. The White Sox are 6-1 in Floyd's last 7 starts, and he is coming off an absolute gem against Texas, giving up no runs on 3 hits in 7 innings of work in a 10-0 victory. The Mariners, meanwhile, are just 2-7 in Vargas' last 9 starts. We'll take the South Siders.