Black Widow
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -116
Rarely will you get Rays' Ace David Price as this small of a favorite, and we'll take advantage Sunday. Tampa has gone 8-3 in their last 11 games to get to 72-59 on the season, clearly still fighting to make the playoffs. The Toronto Blue Jays have appeared to pack it in, losers of three straight and six of their last eight. Price is 11-11 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in his last three. He'll be up against Brandon Morrow, who just has not felt comfortable at home all year. Morrow is 4-7 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 13 home starts in 2011. Few starters have had their way with the Blue Jays like Price has. Price is 8-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Toronto, and the Rays are 9-1 in those games. Take the Rays on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -117
The Rays, winners of 4 straight overall against the Blue Jays and 5 of the last 6 in Toronto, are showing value with ace David Price on the hill. He's 8-1 (9-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.19 in 10 career starts against the Blue Jays. We'll bet Tampa Bay this afternoon.
Info Plays
3* Pittsburgh Pirates
--SYSTEMS IN PLAY--
*Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.
*Pittsburgh is 4-1 in Karstens' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
*St Louis is 2-11 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
*St Louis is 1-9 in Lohses last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Joe Gavazzi
Rays -115
Each of these pitchers has excellent history against the opposing line ups. Other numbers significantly favor Price. In his L3 outings, against the Big Bats of NYY, BOS and DET he has allowed just 4 runs in 24 IP. Morrow, conversely has struggled in 3 of his L4 outings. Expect those issues to continue from this mound where in 74 IP he has a 6.23 ERA. TBAY is 37-28 away for the season. In the last month they are an AL best 19-9, including recent runs of 16-7 and 7-3.
Reds -148
We back the power pitching of Cueto in this. He leads the NL with a .203 BAA and a 2.03 ERA. That number improves to 1.32 from this mound in 55 IP. The Reds have won 5 straight. WASH has lost 5 straight and is just 25-41 away.
Angels +108
With last night's victory, the Angels have pulled to within 1 game in the lost column with the Rangers. It comes courtesy of a recent 7-1 surge in which they have a .324 BA. That puts them on equal footing with the Big Bats of the home team who enters on a 1-4 slide. From the mound it is no contest, Weaver is among the best the AL has to offer. He has a 4-1 recent record in his L7 starts with the Rangers, over which time he has posted a 1.99 ERA. He is in great form, allowing just 1 ER in his L14 IP. Lewis has been horrible from this mound. In 79 IP he has worked to a 5.56 ERA. It is worse in his L3 starts where he is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA. He is off an outing in which he allowed 7 runs in 6 IP. Angels are a solid 10-6-2 in 3 or 4 game road series.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
NY Yanks/ Baltimore Over 9.5 (Game 1): Both offenses have been excellent of late as they Yanks come in averaging 7.2 rpg and hitting .296 over their last 10 games, while the o's are hitting .298 and scoring 5.7 rpg in their last 10 games. The Yanks really hit lefties well, especially on the road where they hit them at a 280 clip and they score 6.34 runs per 9 innings off them as well. In their last 10 games overall the yanks have hit southpaws at .302 and have scored 7.68 runs per 9 vs them. The Yanks hit lefties on the road very well and the O's hit righties at home very well. In Camden yards the O's have averaged .263 and have scored a solid 4.95 runs per 9 vs them, while in their last 10 overall they have hit .286 and have scored 5.42 runs per 9 vs righties. Offense is good, pitching is bad for this one. The Yanks pitching has been struggling in their last 10 as they come in with a 5.62 ERA overall and a 7.53 ERA form their starters. Bartolo Colon has struggled of late with a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts and in his last 4 starts in Baltimore he has an ERA of 4.69. Zach Britton has been horrible of late with a 10.22 ERA and a WHIP of 2.90 in his last 6 starts. He does have a 2.82 ERA at home overall, but in 5.29his last 3 starts at home that ERA is 5.29. Niether pitcher is pitching well and they are in a top 45 hitting park with a couple of hot offenses. Looks like and EASY double digit run total today.
Don Wallace Sports
New Orleans -4.5
The New Orleans Saints began their 2011 preseason on a strong note, delivering a convincing 24-3 win over San Francisco 49er's at the Superdome on Aug. 12, but weren't nearly as sharp in last week's road test against the seemingly-improved Houston Texans. Quarterback Drew Brees did engineer a touchdown drive early in the second quarter of the 27-14 loss, but was an off-target 7-of-14 for 109 yards before giving way to backup Chase Daniel late in the first half. The defense, meanwhile, couldn't back up an excellent performance in the opener, with the Texans piling up 208 rushing yards and 436 total on the evening. New Orleans had yielded just 234 total yards and generated six sacks against the sputtering 49ers the previous week. Like the Raiders, Saints head coach Sean Payton plans to have his first-team units on the field for close to three quarters in the traditional dress rehearsal game of the preseason. The QB competition in Oakland is between a slew of cast-offs that will be unable to close the gap in the second half against New Orleans 2nd teamers The Saints have gotten some solid play out of second-string QB Chase Daniel, whos averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on 35 throws so far. They've also made more of a commitment to the run, gaining 125.5 rushing yards per game so far. The Saints and Raiders have met four times previously in preseason play, with each team prevailing twice in the series. New Orleans was a runaway winner in the most recent clash, coming through with a 45-7 triumph at the Coliseum in 2009. Traveling to the west coast will not be an issue for the Saints, as they have been practicing in Northern California all week. Sean Payton is 8-1 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss, 4-1 in game three, and 3-0 ATS off a preseason loss. New Orleans 10-4 ATS vs AFC opponents, 8-3 ATS on the road. After giving up over 200 yards on the ground to Houston last week, and struggling offensively, look for Sean Payton to rally his charges and run it up on Oakland tonight..