Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 29,2010

Hollywood Sports
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
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Take the Steelers over the Broncos. Denver is winless in the preseason after losing at home to Detroit by a 25-20 score. Now they face an undefeated Steelers' team in the preseason still playing hard as they determine their starting QB during the Roethlisberger suspension. Both Leftwich and Dixon have shined -- and Big Ben make an appearance in this game. The Steelers should move the ball all night against a Broncos' team ravaged by injuries. The Broncos are struggling to implement a new defense with a completely overhauled d-line. And who is running the football with injuries to Moreno, White and Buckhalter? Take Pittsburgh.

Marc Lawrence
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New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
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The Pale Hose and Pinstripes wrap up a three game series at Comiskey Park where Gavin Floyd matches serves with Ivan Nova Sunday afternoon. Floyd toes the rubber knowing he is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his last seven home team starts. He's also 6-2 in his last eight home team starts during the month of August. Best of all he's never tasted defeat against the Yankees in his MLB career, going 3-0 in three starting efforts. Can't argue with numbers like those, and we won't. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Rocketman Sports
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +2.5
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Denver is 5-1 SU and ATS since 1993 after 2 or more consecutive losses in preseason action. Tomlin is 0-4 SU and ATS as a road underdog last 4. Denver is 14-6 ATS in their 2nd home game. Denver is 10-4 ATS in the preseason at home after playing a home game. Denver is 14-2 ATS off a SU favorite loss. Denver is 12-2 ATS when they have a losing record and playing at home. Denver is 7-2 ATS off back to back SU losses. My Rocketman line has Denver outright by 3 points. We'll recommend a small play on Denver tonight!

Rob Vinciletti
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers have Dominated the Pirates at home winning 21 of the last 23 games here. Today their starter is D. Bush. Historically Bush is much better at home. This year he has a solid outing here vs the Pirates allowing just 2 runs in 6+ innings. The Pirates are hitting a shade over .200 the past week. The Brewers are averaging over 5 runs per game the past week. Pittsburgh is a lousy 3-21 as a road dog in this range and Milwaukee is 10-4 as a home favorite in this range. Take Milwaukee today.

David Chan

Astros @ Mets
PICK: Over 7

I'm seeing an over/under of 7 on this game with a pitching matchup of Bud Norris versus R.A. Dickey.
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A total that low should not be on the same line with the name Bud Norris. I don't care that the Mets are slumping at the plate again and that the game is at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.

Norris isn't a good enough pitcher right now, if ever, to help carry a total that low. This is especially so with Houston's vulnerable middle relief and Norris having thrown 231 pitches during his last two starts, the most he's ever pitched in a two-game span.
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In three road starts since the All-Star break, Norris has allowed nine earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.

It would be a plus for the Mets offense if Jose Reyes were able to play.
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Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is going for the Mets. He's had a remarkable season coming from the American League where he was far from distinguished. Dickey, though, gave up five runs on 10 hits in seven innings during his last start at home versus Florida.

Dickey is going to have to deal with a hot Carlos Lee, who has slugged three homers and driven in nine runs during his past six games.
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The Astros should have a good feel for Dickey and his knuckleball ways having just faced him two starts ago.

The Mets are without closer Francisco Rodriguez, out for the season.
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It's not asking too much of these offenses to each put up at least three runs, which would ensure at least a push on this low daytime total.

JIM FEIST
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KANSAS CITY ROYALS / CLEVELAND INDIANS
PLAY: KANSAS CITY ROYALS
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Two teams two bottom teams in the AL Central meet here on Sunday and if there is any meaning to this game it's that only one game separates the Indians and Royals. No on wants to finish last so we will see some extra incentive ast they teams battle to stay out of the cellar. The Royals dropped Saturday's contest in extra innings, 4-3, making it two straight they have lost to the Indians. Today's rubber match has Bruce Chen on the hill for the Royals. Chen is likely the the #2 guy of the starters and even though he's been roughed up lately, he will has a winning 8-7 mark on the season with a 4.88 ERA for a bad team . Fausto Carmona has also been roughed up of late for the Tribe and is 11-12 on the season with a 4.20 ERA. Chen is 2-0 against Cleveland this year but has a 7.04 ERA while Carmona is 1-1 against the Royals with a 6.30 ERA. I'm taking the Royals here for two reasons. One, it's difficult in this league for any team to sweep and two, this line is way too high for the Tribe. Chen is a respectable pitcher for the Royals and this line should be at least 20 to 30 cents less. Good value here with the Royals, so we'll take a chance with them on Sunday.

James Patrick Sports
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Phillies vs. Padres
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Philadelphia is the model franchise of the National League. No team has as many top-of-the line players that can score runs and play defense. Because the Phillies hit home runs, they are less prone to scoring droughts if a couple of guys are in hitting slumps for a period. Home run power, players that get on base with plate discipline and tough-minded willingness to not give up. They have won 92 and 93 games the last two seasons. Beyond (1B) Gonzalez, San Diego is a faceless team and most figured the sweet swinging first baseman would be moved at some point during the season. New owner Jeff Moorad bought the Padres on the cheap and insiders believed his group doesn’t have the financial muscle to turn around the depleted farm system and big-league club around anytime in the near future. The Padres just keep on winning and remain in the hunt for the National League West Division Crown. The "Holy Men" have enjoyed their success behind the strong left arm of (Richard) and the "Holy Men" have the National League buzzing as his Padres have won (5) of his past (6) starts and the San Diego Padres have posted an amazing (14-3) record in past (17) Sunday games. Philadelphia is (0-4) in Hamel's last (4) starts and the Big Man's Sunday selection in Big League Baseball is San Siego Padres in this potential playoff preview.

Tom Freese
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Orioles at Angels
Play: Under
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Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts. The Orioles are 6-1-1 UNDER their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Birds are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 games. Baltimore is 11-3-3 UNDER in game 3 of a series and they are 34-16-2 UNDER in the last 52 starts made by Guthrie with four days of rest. Angels starter Jered Weaver has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts. Los Angeles is 34-14-4 UNDER in Weaver's last 52 home starts. The Halos are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 home games. Weaver is 17-4-2 UNDER his last 23 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -146
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Look for the Rangers to bounce back strong this afternoon following Saturday's shutout loss. The Athletics are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 0-6 in Gonzalez's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are a strong 13-5 in their last 18 games following a loss and 12-5 in Lewis' last 17 home starts. Rangers have also won 5 of their last 7 at home against the A's. Texas is an impressive 26-9 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season, and I'll grab the Rangers in this price range tonight.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Dodgers +110
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The Dodgers are showing solid value in the underdog role this afternoon with Ted Lilly on the hill. Since joining the Dodgers, Lilly is a perfect 5-0 with an ERA of 1.34. And his best performance in that stretch came against Colorado, when he threw a two-hitter and struck out a season-high 11. But that shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, considering is 4-1 (5-1 on the money line) in his career against Colorado. Probable Rockies starter Jason Hammel has been solid at home this season, but he appears to wearing down, as he has only recorded one win in his last five home starts. Plus, the Dodgers are 13-3 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 this season. The Dodgers are 24-9 in the last 33 meetings in this series and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Colorado. Take LA.

JR O'Donnell
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Detroit Tigers +105
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We are fading and are very low on the Toronto Jays hurler Matt Rzepczynski who is 0-1 with a 10.39 ERA in his last 2 starts at home this season. The 64-65 Detroit Tigers are starting to hit the rock. Miguel Cabrera is flat out on fire and he has been carrying the Detroit Tigers on his back. The Tigers will run out the Triple A veteran R. Porcello who needs to and will turn around that 6-11 & 5.43 ERA so far. The JR O/Rz power ratings are favoring the Tigers @ -120 for the visitors right now . Play the Tigers as a nasty dog here boys!

EZWINNERS
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San Francisco Giants -230
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The Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain recorded his third straight quality start on Monday against the Reds. Cain allowed two runs on five hits in eight innings of work. Both runs he allowed came in the third inning when Scott Rolen hit a two run triple. Cain was lights out after that retiring the final fourteen batters that he faced. Cain has shut down this Arizona team twice this season posting a 2-0 record and he is yet to allow a run in seventeen innings of work. I look for him to have another solid outing against the D-Backs in this game. Arizona send the struggling Rodrigo Lopez to the mound for this start. Lopez is 0-5 with a 6.90 ERA in his last eight starts. The 32 homers he allowed leads all of baseball. The Giants have hit him well this season as Lopez is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against San Francisco this season and I look for the Giants success to continue in this game. The Giants are 20-7 in Cain's last twenty seven home starts and I look for that trend to continue. Play on San Francisco.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Houston +1.61 over NY METSTHESPREAD.COM
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Win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it and that’s really all the incentive needed to pull the trigger on the Astros. Bud Norris quietly has shown significant growth this year, particularly recently. In fact, few starters have been better since July 1 in terms of GB%/line drive%/FB%, which were 49%/13%/36% G/L/F. The key for him has been improved control, an area that he has shown gradual improvement all year. If he can sustain his recent GB tilt, his ceiling could be even higher because he has wicked movement on both his slider and fastball and his confidence is soaring. In five August starts covering 32.2 frames, Norris allowed just 26 hits for a BAA of .213. He struck out 31 and walked nine and one of those starts came against these Mets in Houston in which he allowed just two hits in seven IP. Since R.A. Dickey joined the Mets rotation on May 19th, he’s compiled an 8-5 record with a 2.64 ERA. Where the hell did that come from???!!! What is R.A. Dickey best known for? The fact that he was born without an ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm. You know ... that pesky little thing that pitchers often get replaced in a little surgery known as "Tommy John Surgery." The fact that Dickey can even throw a baseball is miraculous, let alone pitch in the majors. This guy throws a knuckleball 82% of the time and he’s never had success at this level for an extended period of time. He’s 35 and there’s a reason he’s spent most his career in the minors and has been on four different teams in the past five years. Yes, he’s having the time of his life but unfortunately he’s the only Mets player that can make that claim. The fact Dickey is this big a favorite over Norris and the still very warm Astros is ludicrous. Big overlay. Play: Houston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).

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Chicago +2.02 over CINCINNATITHESPREAD.COM
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Travis Wood has been very good since he joined the Reds rotation back on July 1 but there’s a whole lot of concern for those thinking of laying this ridiculous price on him. First, he’s only pitched one of his 10 major-league starts at home and that’s a huge problem for a guy that has proven to be an elite fly-ball pitcher. In fact, Wood has a groundball rate of 28% and you won’t find a pitcher in the league with a rate lower than his. His fly-ball rate is an alarming 49% and as a result of this, much of his limited success this year can be attributed to good fortune. He’s also had a history of injury and that fact that he’s already up to 161 innings between the minors and majors this season is another reason for concern. Wood has allowed 12 runs in his last three starts and one of those came at Wrigley in which the Cubs scored four runs on him in six frames. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus changeup but it appears as though he’s running out of steam very quickly. The Cubbies will go with a rookie by the name of Casey Coleman. Coleman was Chicago's 15th rounder in 2008 out of Florida Gulf Coast University. At 23, he's the son and grandson of a couple of Joe Coleman’s who combined to win 194 big league games, so pitching is in his blood. He's only been a professional for three years, but already has full years in both Double- and Triple-A. When he's on, he'll induce plenty of ground balls with his sinking 89-92 MPH fastball. He’s only pitched 19 innings in the big leagues but is coming off a gem in Washington in which he three-hit the Nats in 6.1 innings. The most promising thing about Coleman is his elite GB rate. In those 19 innings he induced groundballs 53% of the time and although he’s certainly a risk, the fact is he’s an elite groundball pitcher going up against an elite fly-ball pitcher. At this park with that info, you would have to be out of your mind to lay –2.16 with Wood. Play: Chicago +2.02 (Risking 2 units).

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Florida –1.04 over ATLANTATHESPREAD.COM
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Josh Johnson's performance says, "Ubaldo who"? Johnson has been struggling a bit recently with a 5.94 ERA over his last three starts but much of that can be attributed to a freakish 40% hit rate. Not to worry. Johnson’s performances has stacked up against the best of them ... even 1H pitching darling, Ubaldo Jimenez. This guy is truly in the elite category in every sense and when you can lay less than a nickel or dime on him against a pitcher of Derek Lowe’s caliber, just make the wager and live with the result because you’re chances of winning are high. Also note that the Marlins are playing extremely well with eight wins in its last 11 games and they’re relishing the role of the spoiler. Derek Lowe has a reputation for being solid and dependable and while that’s somewhat true, it’s not all true. Lowe’s skill set has been getting progressively worse for four years now. Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez torch Lowe. In fact, Uggla is 10-26 while Ramirez is an off the charts 12-24 against Lowe for a combined average, in a good sample size, of .443. Lowe struggles late in games and he’s also been miserable pitching from the stretch. He starts off looking fantastic. First time through lineups he has 57% GB rate and very good control. His skills erode the second time through lineups and they fall into a black hole after that. He has a 6.29 ERA and 1.89 WHIP the third time through lineups and could run into a whole lot of trouble here. Play: Florida –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Nelly
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New York Yankees + over Chicago White Sox
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After a rough start to the season Gavin Floyd pitched extremely well in the middle months of the season but he appears to be falling into some of the bad habits that plagued him early in the year. His last four starts have come against just two teams but Floyd has allowed 33 hits and 17 runs in the four games while allowing five home runs. Chicago is actually just 12-14 this season in Floyd starts and he has not pitched significantly better at home while also pitching worse in day games. Ivan Nova made his first big league start for the Yankees last week and it was a successful outing, allowing just two runs in over five innings. Nova owns a 2.16 ERA in three appearances this season and he'll give way to a strong Chicago bullpen. New York is 25-12 in the game 3 series match-ups this season and this will be rare underdog pricing on the Yankees due to the pitching match-up. Chicago has been scoring runs but the White Sox played Baltimore and Kansas City in the previous two series and umpire Tim Tschida is one of the lower-scoring game callers in the league. A lower scoring game should give the edge to the more complete Yankees lineup and the superior bullpen. New York is 7-2 in the last nine meetings with Chicago and this should be another opportunity for New York to get a win.