Info Plays
3* on St. Louis Cardinals -180
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Reasons the Cards win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (WASHINGTON) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 71-8 ML System hitting 89.9% over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Cardinals on the road.
Larry Ness
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Florida Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Florida Marlins
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The Braves won 12-3 last night vs the Marlins, maintaining their slim two-game lead over the Phillies, who have won back-to-back games in San Diego. Getting a win in the rubber game of this series with the Marlins, won't come as easily. Derek Lowe seems to be wearing down as the year has gone along. He owns just two wins in his last 12 starts (he's lost seven times and the team is 2-10 in those 12 starts) and here he'll face one of the NL's top hurlers in Josh Johnson. Johnson's 11-5 with a 2.36 ERA this season, allowing just 144 hits in his 171.2 innings while striking out 166 batters. It's true that he's more effective at home (team is 11-3 and he owns a 1.48 ERA) than he is on the road (team is 4-8 and Johnson's ERA is 3.51) but I want him OVER Lowe in this one. He owns a career 2.64 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) vs the Braves while Lowe sports a 7.01 ERA in five starts against Florida over the past three seasons. Lowe has faced the Marlins just once this season but the vet has been just AWFUL vs NL East opponents, going 1-8 with a 4.86 ERA in 11 starts within the division (Braves are 1-10). Take the Marlins.
INSIDER ANGLES
PITTSBURGH vs. DENVER
This preseason battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos is one of our favorite preseason situations, as it pits one coach that wants to win with another coach that just wants to get these games over with.
The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start, which brings the preseason record of Coach Mike Tomlin to 12-3 since taking over the reins at Pittsburgh. Week 3 is the one week that Tomlin game plans for, and he has already announced that he is treating this game as a dress rehearsal for the regular season.
So far, Tomlin is a perfect 3-0 in Week 3, and the fact that he has not yet commented on whether Ben Roethlisberger is going to see the field this week can also be seen as a positive, as it means he is going with his opening week starters into the third quarter.
Conversely, the Broncos are 0-2 so far including a home loss to the Detroit Lions last week, making Coach Josh McDaniels 1-5 in the preseason. McDaniels held out 16 players last week, and he has publicly said that his main concern is to keep his players out of harm’s way these next two weeks. While some of his starters will indeed start, they probably will not play as long as most coaches play their starters in Week 3, and he may want to hive Tim Tebow extended time.
This vast difference in coaching philosophies makes the Steelers the play giving less than a field goal here.
Pick: Steelers -2
Bobby Maxwell
Made it two straight FREE winners on Saturday when the Jaguars scored the win in Tampa Bay against the Bucs. Tonight I have a comp winner on the Broncos as they are hosting the Steelers in the final game of the preseason's Week 3.
The Denver Broncos have a lot of talent on offense, it’s just in the bodies of a lot of people. These guys have a slew of WRs and RBs, all with a solid skill-set, but they don’t have any real superstars. That works well in the preseason when everybody is trying a little harder to gain some notoriety and playing time.
I’ll grab the points with the home team Broncos in this on e as QB Kyle Orton has got about six WRs he’ll use and about four RBs that will see carries behind the first-team offensive line. Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Stokley are the four WRs that are the most consistent, but there are also three youngsters there that could make some noise as well.
At the RB spot for the Broncos tonight, Knowshon Moreno will not play until the opening game of the regular season, but expect to see a lot of Justin Fargas, Lance Ball and Bruce Hall. You might also see a little of LenDale White who has caught on with Denver and might just be mad enough to have a hell of a year.
Orton is going to run the offense through the first half and likely into the third quarter before Brady Quinn takes it the rest of the way. That’s also a good thing for the offense as both these guys know their spot on the team and will be there to fine-tune the offense.
For the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger will start the game, but he’ll likely only get into the second quarter before giving way to Dennis Dixon who is expected to be Byron Leftwich’s backup when the season starts, but could play his way onto the field more with a good performance tonight. Roethlisberger is suspended for the first six games of the regular season so coach Mike Tomlin has to work with the other two guys and the first-team offense here tonight.
Timing and accuracy gets a little confusing for the offense with so many QBs taking snaps with them and I expect some mistakes from the Steelers here tonight. Go ahead and play the home team in this big Week 3 preseason game for the Broncos.
4♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
I'm on a 9-3 run with MLB free plays, and today I get back on the diamond to take a look at the Mets, with Dickey, over the visiting Astros
I know the Astros have been on a bit of a run, but they're going to run into a buzzsaw today, as R.A. Dickey is up for the Metropolitans, and he steps to the hill looking to bounce back after a brutal outing.
Dickey gave up a season-high 10 hits and matched his high for the year with five runs allowed over seven innings of a 6-5 win against Florida last Tuesday, so I'm guessing he'll want to avenge that performance with a stifling performance today.
He just faced these same Astros on Aug. 18, and was much sharper, allowing two runs over 8 1/3 innings of a 3-2, 14-inning win.
I'm not going to worry about listing Bud Norris, though I know it's an auto-list on the Run Line. I just don't care who ends up going.
The Mets come in on winning streaks of 6-1 with Dickey at home, 5-1 overall when it's his turn in the rotation, 8-2 against Houston and 19-7 when they meet the 'Stros in the Big Apple.
All New York today.
1♦ N.Y. METS -1.5
Karl Garrett
Sunday in the National League, take Atlanta to win their series against Florida.
After that horrific stop in Colorado, the Braves followed to open the series on Friday against the Marlins with another flat effort. They turned it up on Saturday, as they broke their skid with a ringing 12-3 victory.
It is time for Derek Lowe to step up an contribute, as Lowe has lost 3 straight decisions to drop to 11-12 on the year. His counterpart Josh Johnson appears to have hit the wall, as Johnson has allowed a whopping 11 runs over his last16-plus innings of work, and has allowed 3 runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts.
The Braves are 45-18 at home this season, and they just don't lose too many times at Turner Field.
Atlanta to take the rubber game.
2♦ ATLANTA
Scott Delaney
A pair of National League West disappointments will play to an Under, as I see a great pitching matchup between Ted Lilly and Jason Hammel.
Not going to get too long-winded on this one, as it's pretty cut and dry ...
Since the Dodgers acquired Lilly from the Cubs at the July 31 trade deadline, the fiery southpaw has gone 5-0 with a 1.34 ERA, including a quality start his last time out, last Tuesday at Milwaukee, where he gave up just three runs over 6 1/3 innings to nab the win.
But most notably, his best start of the campaign came against the Rockies on Aug. 19, when he threw a two-hitter with a season-high 11 strikeouts.
He is 4-1 in six lifetime starts versus Colorado, including a 1-1 mark at Coors, so confidence will be running high for him.
As for Hammel, he is 6-1 with a 3.43 ERA at Coors Field, so he too will be toeing the slab with plenty of confidence. He'll be out to avenge a tough outing on Aug. 18 against the Dodgers, as he failed to receive a decision after giving up just two runs over six innings of a 3-2, 10-inning Rockies win.
Both pitchers have plenty to play for, so I'll take this one low.
2♦ LOS ANGELES/COLORADO UNDER
Stephen Nover
I am on a 62-40-1 run with my complimentary baseball selections following Saturday's winner on the Yankees. For Sunday, I'm taking the Phillies and Cole Hamels to beat San Diego again and Clayton Richard.
Hamels is 7-10, but there may not be a bigger gap between performance and his highly misleading won/lost record.
Hamels has been close to brilliant in his last 11 starts, turning in a 2.74 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 42-to-4 during his past five starts. Compare that to Richard, whose strikeout-to-walk ration in his last five starts is 19-to-14.
On the season, Hamels has allowed 117 hits in a 132 1/3 innings and has 170 strikeouts to only 50 walks, highly impressive for a power pitcher. His record isn't any better because the Phillies have scored only four runs for him during his last four outings.
The Phillies are healthy now and dangerous, trying for a three-game sweep. Getting out of boo-crazy Philadelphia was a good tonic for the Phillies. They are back to being a loose and potent bunch with solid hitters and All-Stars at nearly every position, something the overachieving Padres can't match.
The Phillies have a strong history of playing well in San Diego having won 10 of their last 11 road contests against the Padres during the past four seasons.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chuck O'Brien
Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from San Diego, as I’ll take the Padres in a pick-em game against Philadelphia.
Playing the percentages here, as San Diego has dropped its last three games – including the first two in this series by scores of 3-2 and 3-1 – for just its second three-game losing streak of the entire season. And not once in 2010 have the Padres lost four in a row. At the same time, the Phillies have followed up a four-game slide with back-to-back wins, but they’ve swept a three-game road series just three times this year (all against sub-.500 opponents Florida, Milwaukee and Houston).
San Diego lefty Clayton Richard has been dealing lately, going 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s now 12-5 with a 3.55 ERA for the season. And the Padres are 8-2 in Richard’s last 10 outings.
Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels is just 7-10 despite a solid 3.47 ERA, and the Phillies have come up empty in the lefty’s last four starts (even though Hamels had quality starts in three of the four games). Hamels lost 3-1 to the Padres at home on June 7, and Philadelphia is just 4-4 in Hamels’ eight career starts against his hometown team, including 1-2 at Petco Park.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Joel Tyson
The Yankees held on for a Saturday night slugfest win over the White Sox, and I like another slugfest on Sunday with Nova and Floyd on the hill.
Both games this weekend have played over the total, and the series finale will as well.
Ivan Nova gets his second start for the Yanks, and while he did pitch well in his first effort at Toronto, the Chicago sticks have really been raking, as the Pale Hose have plated 26 runs their last 3 games.
Gavin Floyd sports an ERA over 7 for his last 3 starts, and it is likely that ERA will not move any lower against the New York bats.
All 5 meetings this season, and 9 of the last 11 between the teams have landed on the up side. This one will as well.
Take the Yankees-White Sox to go over on Sunday.
4♦ OVER
BRETT ATKINS
I am 9-3 with my last 12 freebies, and today I'm coming with a winner on the diamond as I go with the Padres at home to salvage the final game against the Phillies in their three-game set in San Diego.
San Diego hasn’t lost four straight games all season. And they’ve only had one three-game losing streak prior to dropping Saturday’s game to the Phillies, 3-1. Now they have had their second three-game skid and will certainly avoid a fourth-straight loss with Clayton Richard on the hill.
Richard is 3-0 in his last three overall with a 1.45 ERA and he’s 6-3 at home with a 3.00 ERA. Tuesday he blanked the D’Backs for six innings, allowing three hits and striking out eight en route to a 5-0 win. San Diego is 12-2 when Richard takes on a winning team and 4-0 in his last four starts in front of the home fans.
The Padres have also dominated Sundays this season, going 14-3 in the last 17 Sundays.
Cole Hamels goes for the Phillies and he’s struggled to a 3-6 mark on the road with a 3.89 ERA. The Phillies have lost each of his last four outings and they are 3-7 when he faces a winning team.
Let’s go with San Diego to get back on the winning side with Richard on the hill today!
3♦ SAN DIEGO
John Ryan
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Cubs at Reds
Play: Under
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5* graded play Under Cubs/Reds set to start at 1:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than nine runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-14 for 75.4% winners since 1997. Play under with all teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 and with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last three games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. Casey Colman is making his third start for the Cubs and is coming off a solid 6 1/3 inning stint allowing just one earned run on three hits. The scouting reports have not even come close to catching up to him and we expect him to have another solid outing. Travis Wood has posted a 3.38 ERA and a 0.978 WHIP in 10 starts. He was hammered for seven earned in his last start against a strong hitting Giants team. Starters at the MLB level have a strong propensity to bounce back strong after a poor start; it is that attitude and work ethic that got them to this level. Cubs are 32-12 UNDER (+18.4 Units) facing a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. The Reds are 25-11 UNDER (+12.6 Units) in home games facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER.
Doug Upstone
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels are in unfamiliar territory, being all but mathematically eliminated from winning the AL West with the whole month of September yet to go. They attempt to avoid the embarrassment of being swept at the Big A by Baltimore.
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The Halos will send their ace Jered Weaver to the mound, who’s off two mediocre starts, but is 5-2 with sparking 1.65 ERA in Anaheim. Weaver could use a few runs from his teammates who are batting just .257 as a team and are 11th in the AL in runs scored at home.
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Nevertheless, favorites with a money line of -150 or more, hitting .265 or less against an AL starting pitcher with ERA 4.20 or less, whose starting pitcher strikes out five or more batters per start are 97-28 the past 13 seasons.
Tony Stoffo
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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Oakland Athletics
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With Gio Gonzalez matching up with Colby Lewis here makes for a solid release on the underdog A's in this spot. First off Gonzalez for the A's has been throwing some nasty stuff as of late allowing just 3 earned runs, and 10 hits in 20 innings pitched resulting in a 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP. Add in the fact the Gonzalez has dominated the Rangers in his last 2 outings against them giving up just 1 run in 13 innings pitched. With these numbers have to go with Oakland here at this inflated price.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
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The San Diego Padres host the Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon at 4:05 PM EST in the last game of the series. The Phillies have had seven straight unders this week and will make it eight tonight! Hamels is starting for the Phillies and has a 3.47 ERA and 1.229 WHIP. He has an almost perfect under trend going under the total nine out of ten starts when he is a favorite of -100 to -150! Richard is starting for San Diego with a 3.00 ERA and 1.235 WHIP when starting at home and an excellent 1.45 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in his last three starts. San Diego is 21-7 UNDER in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. This will be a very low scoring matchup!
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Play on: The Under