Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 31

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

SMU at Baylor
The Bears open up their season against the Mustangs and come into the contest with a 4-0 ATS record in the last 4 meetings between the two teams. Baylor is the pick (-32 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 36. Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-32 1/2)

Game 205-206: Utah State at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 96.112; Tennessee 89.997
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 6; 47
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: SMU at Baylor (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 79.813; Baylor 115.745
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 36; 70
Vegas Line: Baylor by 32 1/2; 75
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-32 1/2); Under

OTHER GAMES:

Alabama A&M vs. North Carolina A&T (11:45 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama A&M 40.879; North Carolina A&T 53.542
Dunkel Line: North Carolina A&T by 12 1/2

Texas Southern vs. Prairie View A&M (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Southern 30.216; Prairie View A&M 42.583
Dunkel Line: Prairie View A&M by 12 1/2

DUNKEL INDEX

CFL

Winnipeg at Saskatchewan
The Roughriders (6-2) host Winnipeg (6-3) today and come into the contest with a 6-0-2 ATS record in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning record. Saskatchewan is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-7).

Game 283-284: Winnipeg at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 109.231; Saskatchewan 120.424
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 11; 43
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 7; 50
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-7); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

Game 285-286: Toronto at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.230; Hamilton 114.585
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Toronto by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2); Under

Game 287-288: Edmonton at Calgary (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 116.615; Calgary 124.502
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 8; 56
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5; 50

WNBA

Phoenix at Minnesota
The Lynx look to bounce back from their loss in Game 1 of the series and come into today's game with a 7-3 ATS mark in their last 10 home games versus the Mercury. Minnesota is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2)

Game 605-606: Phoenix at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.828; Minnesota 121.452
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 159

River City Sharps

Utah State vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -6½

The second year of the Butch Jones era at Tennessee begins on Sunday as they will host the Utah State Aggies in the 2014 opener for both teams. The Vols are coming off a tough 5-7 season but much of that struggle was expected as they were one of the younger teams in Division I for Jones’ first season after coming from Cincinnati. Utah State had very high hopes for last season that were dashed in their battle with BYU when dual-threat QB Chuckie Keeton went down with a season-ending knee injury. Keeton is back this year for the Aggies, who return eight starters, but just three on offense. Their big loss was RB Joey DeMartino, who gained almost 1300 yards for the Aggies last year. In addition to Keeton, they will also get RB Joe Hill back and we expect him to come back strong from his season-ending knee injury. Another major concern with this Aggie team will be their lack of experience on the offensive line, which we believe will show up when playing against a big, physical SEC-defensive front. The Vols offense will once again be led by Justin Worley, who showed flashes of solid play during his junior year. Tennessee returns 10 starters, five on both offense and defense, and has some elite players at the skill positions. The Vols have won 19 straight home openers while the Aggies have dropped 16 straight road openers. The Sharps are bullish on the Tennessee Volunteers being a much better football team this season in Jones second year and think that Utah State will be completely outmatched both physically as well as the speed angle. We are going to jump in now as we currently have this number at Vols -6.5 and like them to win by double-digits.

SPORTS WAGERS

LEICESTER CITY +½ +108 over Arsenal

Asian Handicap. This key fixture will not be taken place at the Emirates, it will be at the King Power stadium in Leicester City and has so far proven to be a strong venue that the Foxes have defended well. Against Everton, Leicester City found itself trailing on two separate occasions and in both instances the crowd and the will of the Foxes propelled them to equalize and force a draw. A much more disparaging result followed when Leicester traveled to Chelsea the following week, but the Blues are virtually unbeatable at Stamford Bridge, losing only twelve games at home in the last 10 years (146-12-36).

A far different statistic accompanies the Gunners. Arsenal is a notoriously tough squad when they roam their home grounds of the Emirates or Highbury as it is known by many who hold endearment toward the North London squad. On the road in the last 10 seasons, Arsenal is 78-50-44, and overall have won less contests in away fixtures than draws or losses combined. This type of narrative can serve to be the imperceptible statistic that is instrumental in a Leicester City win or draw. The Foxes will have home pitch advantage and that’s something that works in their favor. Arsenal has the talent, but Leicester has another intangible at its disposal and it’s for this reason that we’ll play the dog NOTE to lose.

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

Edges - Rays: Cobb 1.20 ERA last seven starts, and 26 strikeouts and 6 walks last four starts. Red Sox: Buchholz 1-6 last seven team starts during August, and 1-4 last five home team starts in this series. With Buchholz sporting a 1-6 team start make with a 6.35 ERA in his last seven team starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Sam Martin

Utah St. at Tennessee Volunteers
Play: Tennessee Volunteers

We've backed the Utah State Aggies a number of the times over the past couple of seasons, as they have been one of the better ATS teams in all of College Football. We expect to switch it up and fade Utah State this year, however, as that ATS success has caught the eye of the linesmakers and they have lost a ton of players from last year.

Aggies return just three starters on offense from a year ago, and particularly important for this game is the fact that they will have four new offensive linemen on the field. That's a tall order for any time, but especially in a season-opening contest on the road against a quality opponent. Far more experience on the Tennessee roster and with home field advantage we look for the Volunteers to cover this relatively small number.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -124

This game has a Solid System that has won 21 of 26 times since 2004 and plays on home favorites like the Mets with a total of 8 or less that lost as a home favorite by 5 or more runs, if they scored 4 or less runs on 5 or more hits and had no errors, vs an opponent off a 5+ run road dog win that had 10 or more hits and 1 or less errors like the Phillies in their 7-2 win here last night. Today the Phils have A.J. Burnett going and he has lost 10 of 14 on the road with a 5.31 era. In his last 3 starts vs a the Mets all losses he has allowed 17 runs in 18 innings. D. Gee goes for the Mets and he was solid vs the Phillies in his last start going 7 innings allowing just a run. Look for the Mets to take the finale of the series here today.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: New York Yankees

The Yankees have been playing very good of late, winning seven of their last 10 games. However, they still trail Baltimore by seven games in the AL East. New York has closed the gap in the Wild Card race though, now trailing both Oakland and Detroit by just three games. Toronto sits 6 1/2 games back of the Wild card race. Toronto lost to the Yankees on Friday, 6-3 making that four losses in the last five games for the Jays. The Yankees have also dominated this series of late, winning 39 of the last 58 meetings between the clubs. JA Happ starts for the Jays with a 8-8 mark and 4.40 ERA. The Jays have lost Happ's last five starts and seven of his last nine. Happ has also allowed four home runs in his last three starts. Brandon McCarthy starts for the Yankees. While McCarthy isn't one of the marquee pitchers traded this summer, he has quietly been a fine acquisition for the Yanks. McCarthy came over from Arizona in early July and proceeded to win four straight for his new club. He has since struggled a bit, dropping three of his last four games, but still has a remarkable 56 KO's compared to just 9 BB's with the Yankees. McCarthy also has a nice ERA for the Yankees with a 2.47 mark in his nine starts. Yankees have a shot at the postseason and it's pitchers like McCarthy that will get them there. I'm taking the hotter team here on Sunday with a quality pitcher.

Neil the Greek

Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Washington Nationals +130

Washington has been playing their best baseball of the year over the last 3 weeks. They have climbed to 20 games above 500, and look to be primed to take the NL East. Seattle is in a fight for the 2nd wild card in the AL. Roark and Iwakuma have pitched similarly well over the course of the season. I will take the better team here, as Washington has owned the Mariners as of late. And they're getting +130.

EZWINNERS

Utah State +5.5

Utah State is the defending Mountain West Mountain Division champion and they will not be intimidated by playing at Rocky Top. The Aggies have put a scare into Auburn, Wisconsin and USC over the past three seasons losing those games on the road by a combined nine points. Utah State has a vetern quarterback under center in senior Chuckie Keeton who should be able to have success against a Tennessee defense that last year gave up 29 points per game and had the fewest amount of sacks in the SEC. The Vols are still a work in progress and they are the only team in the nation that is replacing everyone of their starters from last season on both their offensive and defensive lines. The Vols starting quarterback Justin Worley leaves a lot to be disired and Worley and company are up against an Aggies defense that allowed just under 18 points per game the last two seasons. The Aggies are on a 18-6 run against the spread. Take the points.

DAVE COKIN

CINCINNATI REDS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PLAY: PITTSBURGH PIRATES -128

Here’s a good example of a game in which I’m basically ignoring some strong starting pitcher data and relying completely on the team data. There’s no question that those who focus on the pitchers are going to likely lean more to Reds righty Johnny Cueto than Pittsburgh lefty Francisco Liriano. That part of the equation is clear cut Cueto, although it’s fairly close in what I consider to be the key metric categories. But Cueto is the better guy right down the line, and it should also be noted that Cueto is a day game stud, while Liriano has drawn a season blank when it comes to winning under the sun.

But there’s way more to this than just the pitchers and that’s where things begin to tell a different story. There’s basically nothing positive on the Cincinnati side of the ledger here. The Reds haven’t been much of an offensive threat for some time now, and they’re the second or third worst producing team in the majors over the past month plus. Contrast that with the Bucs, who’ve been putting together some really solid stats with the sticks over that same time frame. As for lefty/righty, the Reds are actually better for the season against southpaws than they’ve been vs. righties, but neither figure is admirable. The Pirates, on the other hand, have been far more productive against righties.

Other factors point to the host team as well. If this is close late, even though there’s nothing wrong with the Reds primary bullpen aces, the Bucs still have an edge. But most importantly to me, this boils down to a contender playing very solid ball right now against a team that has faded out of the race and just isn’t sharp right now in any aspect of the game.

I made the Pirates -140 in this game, and that’s after giving Cincy the edge on the starting pitching. I think the opener on this game was absolutely too low. Even with what I consider sharp early cash pushing the price up a bit, there’s still some value to be had with the home chalk, so that makes the Pirates my choice today.

Jesse Schule

SMU vs. Baylor
Pick: SMU +34

The Baylor Bears owned one of the most prolific offenses in college football in 2013, and bettors are expecting them to be pick up right where they left off. Head coach Art Briles is wise in his years though, and he warns: "We know we're really going to have to be at our best, because this is 2014. All that stuff that happened last year, that's gone. It's gone," The Bears opened up last season with a 69-3 win over Wofford, and averaged over 70 points through their first four games. It might be a tough ask though to expect them to hit the ground running as they did a year ago. First of all, they aren't going to catch anybody by surprise. Every coach in the country has been watching film, trying to scheme a game plan that will at least slow this high octane offense. We saw a few teams succeed near the end of 2013, as the Bears averaged fewer than 30 points in their final three games of the regular season, and were spanked by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl. Those same Knights played the Mustangs in their final game of the regular season, sneaking away with a 17-13 win. That was one of two games that SMU played against ranked opponents, the other a 42-13 loss to Texas A&M. The Mustangs greatly improved on defense near the end of last year, surrendering more than 28 points only once in their final five games, and covering the spread four times in that span. Public money has been pouring in on Baylor all week, driving this number even higher as the game approaches. I suggest sitting back and waiting to see how high the number will go, and taking a value bet on the dog just before kickoff.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Bruce Marshall

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros

The Rangers have lost a lot lately and have done so eight times in rookie Nick Martinez' last ten starts. In fact, Martinez is the first Texas right-handed rookie to reach double figures in defeats since Jose Guzman and Edwin Correa in 1986. Martinez also has a 6.61 ERA in his last four starts. prefer the Astros and starter Dallas Keuchel,leads the majors in groundball percentage (63.5) and groundball-to-flyball ratio (3.46). He has induced 28 groundball double plays to tie Detroit's Rick Porcello for the big-league lead.

Ben Burns

Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -167

All signs are pointing towards an Orioles sweep this weekend.

The home team won big Friday and then again Saturday by a final score of 3-2. These teams continue to head in opposite directions. Baltimore has won five of six. Minnesota has lost 10 of 14. With only the Orioles in a pennant race, this shaped up as an easy series and I'll call for them to finish things off proper.

I've liked what I've seen from Wei-Yen Chen so far. He only made it through 4.2 innings the last time we saw him, but that was also the first time he didn't go at least five in nearly two months. In eight of his last nine starts, he's allowed three runs or less. In his last three, he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Minnesota is just 19-25 vs. LH starters this year.

They also went just 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position yesterday. Against a Baltimore team allowing just 2.9 runs its last seven games and allowing opponents to hit just .218, that's trouble. The Orioles bullpen has a ridiculous 1.06 ERA the last 14 games.

Twins starter Ricky Nolasco pitched well the last time we saw him. But he still has a 6.50 ERA and 1.77 WHIP on the road this season.