Scott Spreitzer
Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -122
The teams are certainly headed in the opposite direction of late. The Angels have won five straight games and 14 of their last 18, while the A's have lost three in a row and enter on a 6-13 slide. The A's haven't hit or scored consistently since Yoenis Cespedes was traded to the Red Sox and the shortcomings at the plate have really shown in this series. Oakland is batting .156 (15-for-96) with four extra-base hits through the first three games of this series. Today, the anemic lineup faces red-hot Matt Shoemaker, who has allowed just 6 earned runs, 30 base runners, and 2 home runs in his last seven outings, spanning 41 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Scott Kazmir has hit rough waters in his last five starts, saddled with a 6.28 ERA & 1.53 WHIP. He struggled so much of late, including against the Angels last Sunday that he was given an extra day off between starts this week. I doubt it helps facing an Angel squad that's on a 37-14 run at home, a .683 win percentage. I expect another Halo victory on Sunday and I'm recommending a play on the Angels.
Jimmy Adams
Utah State vs. Tennessee
Play: Utah State +5½
Utah St. comes into 2014 off of a stellar year in which they won the MWC and beat Northern Illinois in a bowl game. They did this despite losing star QB Chuckie Keeton midway through the season. Matt Wells came in and in his 1st season took home “COY” honors. Now Keeton is back and Wells has his first swarm of recruits.
With Keeton at the helm, this team will be able to flat out score, especially against a Tennessee team laden with freshman. They have explosive weapons at WR and won’t have any trouble putting up points in bunches. The one concern for this offense is the O-line, which has to replace almost everyone. But if you delve into USU’s O-line stats the past few seasons, they’ve never been particularly good.
USU ranked in the top 10 in defense last season. They lost a lot of talent on that side of the ball, but still have some big playmakers intact, including linebackers Kyler Fackrell, Nick Vigil, and DE B.J. Larsen. They also redshirted a handful of players in 2013 in anticipation this year. Some might call this a “reloading” year for USU, but they’ve done this before and had a great deal of success at it. The Aggies are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against SEC opponents.
As I mentioned before, Tennessee comes into this one with a ton of inexperience. QB Justin Worley is average at best, and certainly no Keeton. There are major questions on both the offensive and defensive lines, at TE, kicker, in the secondary, among other positions. This is Butch Jones’ first big recruiting class, so naturally expectation are too high. The guys coming in may be talented, but it’s going to take a while before they have a major impact on the field. We’re looking at a 6-6 team this year, 7-5 at best. They’re just not as good as Utah. St. Getting 5+ points makes this one look like a bargain.
Jonathan Jorcin
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -1½ +121
Baltimore is on a tear, in August going 18-6 and have an 8 game lead heading into September. It has been a long time since the Orioles headed into September playing such good baseball. They got swept by the Cubs, but have back stronger with 3 of 4 wins against the Rays, and are on the verge of sweeping the Twins. They send Chen to reach that sweep, where he has won 6 of 7 decisions and has allowed 3 of fewer runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. Against Minnesota, Chen is 2-1, but has a really strong 2.56 ERA. The Orioles seem to be able to plug in any player they want, bringing Jimmy Paredas for Pearce, and he still was able to homer. Baltimore has also been stellar in their bullpen. In the last 14 games, the bullpen has tossed a 1.06 ERA behind Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter, and close Zach Britton. The Minnesota Twins have lost 6 of the last 7 games, and are 1-12 with runners in scoring positions in that stretch.
Ricky Nolasco has struggled most of the year, but did have a nice performance last time out. He pitched 3 hit ball against the Royals over 7 innings played. Previous that outing, he had an ERA at 9.06 in the previous 3 outings. Against a very powerful offense, the Orioles will light it up. I do not want to take so much chalk, lay the risk on the money line.
Will Rogers
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -140
The Dodgers will look to avoid the sweep in San Diego, after losing back-to-back games in extra innings heading into the series finale this afternoon. The good news for L.A. is that Hyun-Jin Ryu is ready to come off the DL, and that should give them the advantage here in San Diego.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Ryu (13-6, 3.28 ERA) hasn't pitched since August 13, but this looks like a favorable spot for the lefty. He's been far better on the road than he has been at home, going 9-3 with a 2.77 ERA in 13 starts away from L.A. this year. He's also been at the top of his game when pitching in day games, going 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA in eight starts in the afternoon so far. He's completely dominated the Padres going 2-0 with an 0.47 ERA in three starts. San Diego counters with Eric Stults, who is having a terrible year, and was rocked for four runs on nine hits and three walks in a home loss to Milwaukee in his most recent start.
2. Early Start - While Ryu has thrived in day games (and has throughout his career), the same can not be said for Stults, who is 1-6 with a 4.81 ERA in eight starts in the afternoon this year.
3. X-Factor - The Padres own the league's worst offense, ranking dead last in runs scored, batting average, on base percentage etc.
Nick Parsons
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -147
The surging San Francisco Giants look for a three game sweep of a Milwaukee Brewers team slumping at the end of the season.
The Giants starter Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 3.02 ERA) looking for his third straight victory today. He is coming off a 3-0, gem of a one hitter against Colorado were he fanned 13 hitters, a career high. He has faced the Brewers five times and is 3-2 against them with a 1.67 ERA, his second-lowest mark against any team he's faced more than once.
On Saturday Jake Peavy carried a no-hitter into the eighth losing it with one out in the inning. The Giants have outscored their opponents 27-6 during a five game winning streak
The Brewers (73-62) have dropped seven of nine, including four straight by a 23-6 score. Milwaukee is hitting .165 during the four-game skid. The Brew Crew are slumping at the wrong time as they sit just one game ahead of St. Louis for the NL Central lead.
Kyle Lohse (12-7, 3.42) had dropped three consecutive decisions before Monday’s win at San Diego He is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four outings against San Francisco since 2011, including playoffs.
San Francisco’s strong pitching and hot hitting should continue against Lohse and the slumping bats of Milwaukee. Look for the Giants to get the sweep against the Brewers.
Art Aronson
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -158
The visiting Miami Marlins will start the struggling Nathan Eovaldi (6-9, 4.30 ERA); Eovaldi was hammered for six earned runs on 10 hits over just 3 1/3’s innings in a loss to the Angels on Tuesday. The right-hander has now lost three straight outings, allowing 12 earned runs (and three unearned) over 14 1/3 frames for a horrible 7.53 ERA. The home side counters with Alex Wood (9-10, 3.09 ERA), who has been solid of late, allowing two runs or less in five of his last six outings; note that at Turner Field, Wood is 6-5 with a very strong 2.79 ERA. These teams are headed in different directions right now and we should take advantage of it. The Braves have won three of four coming in while the Fish have lost three of four. Altanta’s home field advantage gives us a strong edge here as it is 38-27 at Turner Field. Miami meanwhile is just 29-37 away from friendly confines. I think the Braves are worth the price of admission in this spot, consider Atlanta.
Andre Gomes
Philadelphia Phillies +110
My fair line for this contest is the Phillies being slight favorites, so we are getting some value w/ PHI IMO.
PHI's SP A. Burnett has been highly inconsistent in this season. After a rough 4-starts stretch, he looked decent against the Mariners even though he allowed 5 ER's in that start. However, his 9 K's mark was a good sign for the future, and indeed he dominated on his last start vs. good WAS lineup w/ 7 strong innings in which he allowed just 1 ER and had a great 12/1 K/BB mark.
He already has faced the Mets 3 different times this season and struggled mightily in every start (he allowed 5, 7 & 5 ER's in those starts), so I'm expecting him to have some revenge in this matchup today and perform quite well against this NYM lineup that is struggling to score runs lately - I have them being dead last (#30) in L7 days in the league.
On the other end, NYM's SP Dilon Gee has been on my "fade list" radar in this second half of season. His 5.14 FIP & 4.45 xFIP numbers in 2nd half is a good indicator of how poorly he has pitched lately. His poor 1.79 K/BB ratio is another poor sign for him. PHI current roster is batting .296 BA & .890 OPS!
Unlike NYM's offense, PHI's offense has been decent lately while facing some of the best pitchers in the league. Yesterday, they faced the red-hot B. Colon and still, they pounded him w/ 6 runs! With Pitching & offensive edges, I'm taking the Phillies today!
Sleepyj
SMU / Baylor Under 75
For an early season game this one stands out to me. Tons of hype around this Baylor team and how they score is a bit misleading here. First game jitters on both sides will result in dropped passes and some timing issues. Sure Baylor can score at will but the stage tonight might just have them a tad off as they try to find the stride. Baylor has a nice defense and i don't expect much out of SMU on offense to really even threaten Baylor. I think SMU knows they have an impossible mission here and will be hanging there head as we near the half. They may just want to get out of dodge and will be looking to run the ball and kill this clock and regroup for the next game. I'm not sold on style points this year as much in CFB. The focus will be more on winning and the Bears may even pull the starters when this gets out of hand. I think the SMU defense for the most part will show some effort and will actually slow down this Baylor attack. I really think this one is way over inflated due to what we all seen dating back to last year. I just don't see this one hitting the 70 point mark. I can see this one being in the area of 60 points here.
Don Best Consensus
SMU vs. Baylor
Pick: Baylor
LY Baylor opened at home vs Wofford and led 38-0 at the half. This game is a rematch of the '12 season where Baylor hosted SMU in the opener, a 59-24 Baylor win(24-3 HT). SMU loses 4 year QB Gilbert to the NFL and his replacement is bound to experience growing pains on the road. Bears senior QB Bryce Petty leads the Baylor offense to at least 5 first half TD's.
Indian Cowboy
Utah State +6 over Tennessee
Sure, all the hype about Tennessee is quite evident, and I’m as big a SEC fan is anyone who has ever been fan of the SEC. I’m a die hard Alabama fan and will continue to root for all SEC teams. But, notice that Tennessee, the SEC team that has had a fantastic recruiting class this year, with countless new changes to their program, are only favored by six points here to Utah State on a prime time nationally televised game with few games on the board on Sunday Night? Plus, with only 65% of the public backing this has burial written all over it for the Volunteers. Utah State is a much better team than people are giving them credit for, and the oddsmakers are spot on here to place them as only a 6-point underdog as this is a proud program, who has much success in years’ past, and they will be more than ready as this is nothing short of a major Bowl Game for them here to make a mark for this team. The young Utah State coaching staff has been making its way up for quite some time, and Utah State is phenomenal when playing big named schools as such a priced dog over the years. Note, that State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 nonconference games and 4-1 ATS against SEC teams to boot as the line, the public fade and Utah State really looking forward to this game whereas Tennessee looking to try other things as it will take some time to get used to Coach Butch’s system, let’s roll with the Aggies here for the possible outright upset with the points.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -140
The Padres don’t have much of an offense and even worse when they face left handed pitching. It gets even worst for the Padres when they play in day games. The Dodgers are a better ball club with a better starting pitcher.
Harry Bondi
UTAH STATE (+5) over Tennessee
The Vols are favored by five points here simply because of the name on their jersey and the conference they play in. The bottom line is that these are two dead-even teams and, in fact, we have Utah State rated a few points higher entering the season. Tennessee's defense struggled against mobile QBs last year and Utah State's Chuckie Keaton is as mobile as it gets. He is one of six active FBS quarterbacks who has already rushed for more than 1,000 yards and thrown for more than 5,000 in his career and he'll be facing a Vols defensive line that has three new starters. The Utah State defense was the nation's fifth best last season in yards per play allowed and has most of its front seven back. It will go up against a Tennessee offensive line that has very little experience or depth. Points are too generous to pass up.
LT Profits
Miami vs Atlanta
Pick: Under 7
Do not expect much scoring when Nathan Eovaldi and the Miami Marlins visit Alex Wood and the Atlanta Braves. The 23-year-old Wood has a very bright future despite being 9-10 as he has a 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 130 strikeouts vs. 38 walks in 137 innings, as well as six straight Quality Starts. The southpaw has faced Miami twice in 2014, and while he was roughed up in Miami, he allowed one run on four hits with 11 strikeouts in eight innings here in Atlanta. Eovaldi got off to a nice start but now has a 7.53 ERA his last three outings, leaving him at 6-9 with a 4.30 ERA overall. However, he has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts at Turner Field including three outings not allowing an earned run! The ‘under’ is 5-1-3 in Eovaldi]s last nine starts vs. Braves.
Stephen Nover
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Detroit Tigers -113
The Tigers are superior to the White Sox and have the better starting pitcher going.
Rick Porcello is 9-4 on the road with a 2.41 ERA. Porcello is the kind of pitcher the free-swinging White Sox have problems against as he hasn't walked a batter during his past three starts. The White Sox have lost 12 of the last 14 times when they've faced Porcello.
The Tigers have won 27 of the last 39 times Porcello has pitched, a winning percentage of close to 70 percent.
The White Sox have dropped seven of their last nine home games and southpaw Jose Quintana isn't in good form going 0-3 with a 6.17 ERA in his last three starts. The Tigers usually hit lefties well. They are 25-20 against southpaws on the season.
The Tigers also have a winning record in day games while the White Sox are 18-31 during the day.
Please note that in addition to this free offering, Stephen Nover has his Underdog of the Week going today, one of his strongest 'dog plays of the season. Stephen also has a strong college football play today as he looks to continue his fast start to the CFB season and win big for a third consecutive year.
Jimmy Boyd
Baylor Bears -33
I'm not worried about laying a big number with Baylor at home against an inferior opponent like SMU. The Bears should have one of the top offenses in the country once again with quarterback Bryce Petty returning. Baylor likes to score in a hurry and haven't been afraid to run up the score once they build up a big lead.
Over the last 3 seasons, Baylor has compiled an impressive 19-1 record. They were a perfect 7-0 last year with an average margin of victory of 61-13.
SMU just doesn't have the talent to keep this game close. The offense will be welcoming in a new quarterback after the loss of Garrett Gilbert, plus they have replace their top two receivers. Defensively they only have six starters back from a unit that was torched last year when they faced big time opponents. SMU allowed 42 points to Texas A&M and 48 points to TCU.
There's a big time system in play on Baylor. Home favorites with incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are an incredible 31-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Bears.