Doug Upstone
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -170
Play On AL favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Baltimore, hitting .260 or less as a team, against an ordinary AL starting pitcher (ERA range of 4.70 to 5.70), playing on Sunday. What history has shown us here is teams like the Orioles crush opposing teams in this exact situation, averaging 6.1 runs per game. Why Sunday matter is this is almost always the final game of a series and favorites like this take care of business. In the past 17 years, this system is nearly unbeatable at 41-3, 93.2 percent and is a perfect 4-0 this season. The average margin of victory is 3.2 runs!
Steve Rosen
Baylor -33
History repeats itself. Tonight will be no different. Baylor is a -33 favorite for a reason, because there offense is the best in college football. They keep covering large spreads. Last year alone they went a perfect 7-0 when being a favorite of 20 or more. On the other hand, SMU lost ats In their 2 biggest games as a dog. Baylor has not changed that much this year and is stacked with Petty (62 percent completions for 4,200 yards, 32 touchdowns, three interceptions) and the Bears have five of their top six receivers back, including Antwan Goodley (71 catches, 1,339 yards, 13 scores) and Levi Norwood (47, 733, eight), who is on a 27-game reception streak. Shock Linwood will be the primary back after rushing for 881 yards and eight touchdowns last year behind departed 1,000-yard rusher Lache Seastrunk. Linebacker Bryce Hager (71 tackles in nine games before a season-ending injury) and safety Terrell Burt (61 tackles, two interceptions) return to lead a young defense.
Dr Bob
TENNESSEE (-6) 27 Utah State 25
Utah State has been an underrated team that last two years (20-7 ATS) and that could be the case again this season even with just 8 total starters returning. The Aggies’ offense has just 3 returning starters but one of them is senior quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who was injured most of last season. The Utah State offense missed their veteran leader and went from being 1.1 yards per play better than average in 2012 to 0.5 yppl worse than average last season. Part of that was due to the loss of head coach Gary Anderson and his staff (now at Wisconsin), as Keeton’s production was down before he was injured. However, Keeton’s numbers were much better than those of the backups that took over after his injury, as Keeton was 0.2 yards per pass play better than average on 205 pass plays last season (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) while backups Garretson and Harrison combined to average 5.7 yppp while facing mostly bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB. I actually project Keeton’s passing numbers to fall to below average this season without big play WR Travis Reynolds, who averaged an incredible 11.6 yards on 72 passes thrown to him while the rest of the wide receivers combined to average just 6.5 yards per attempt. Reynolds’ impact became clear when he missed the final 3 games last season and Utah State averaged only 4.3 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average team. I expect the other receivers to be improved but overall the receiving corps will not be as good and the offensive line isn’t likely to be as good with just 1 returning starter. Even with Keeton likely to be below average passing the ball, he still should be better than last year’s team rating of 0.9 yppp worse than average and Keeton’s running ability will help a rushing attack that figures to suffer with an inexperienced offense line and the loss of leading rusher Joey DeMartino, who averaged 5.5 ypr last season. Keeton is also very good at avoiding turnovers, having thrown just 13 interceptions on 777 career pass attempts and only 2 on 196 throws last season. So, despite having just 3 returning starters I project Utah State’s offense to improve from 0.5 yppl worse than average to 0.2 yppl worse than average and with fewer turnovers.
Tennessee’s defense is less experienced than it was last season (5 returning starters compared to 8 in 2013) but the Vols should be a bit better defensively in 2014 and I project that unit to be 0.1 yppl better than average after rating at 0.1 yppl worse than average last year. Utah State’s offense and Tennessee’s defense match up pretty evenly so the Aggies should post a decent number of points in this game. The question is how well Tennessee’s offense will perform against a Utah State defense that has been really, really good the last two seasons. In 2012 the Aggies’ defense was 1.0 yards per play better than average and the coaching change didn’t affect that unit at all last season, in which Utah State yielded just 17.9 points per game and 4.8 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. That unit allowed just one team to gain more than the national average of 5.7 yppl (Utah in the first game of the season had 6.3 yppl) and that’s impressive considering they faced a number of good offensive teams in USC, San Jose State, BYU, Boise State, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois, who they limited to just 4.3 yppl with Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch leading the attack. Utah State lost 6 starters from that unit but do return their best defensive linemen, and 2 All-MWC linebackers in Zach Vigil and Kyler Fackrell. The problem is the loss of 3 starting defensive backs that include 2 NFL draft picks. Utah State’s defensive front 7 should be just as strong but it’s unlikely that they’ll once again have the best compensated run defense in the nation as they did last season (allowed just 3.7 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yprp against an average team). While it’s certainly possible that the Aggies will be just as good defending the run given the talent coming back from the front 7 my model projects some regression to the mean in the defensive run stats while the pass defense is expected to go from 0.3 yppl better than average to 0.2 yppl worse than average. Utah State should still have a good defense but they aren’t likely to be nearly as good as they’ve been the last two seasons.
Tennessee’s offense, meanwhile, should improve with Justin Worley back at quarterback after he missed the 2nd half of last season with an injury. Worley’s numbers from last season don’t look so good but he was having a solid season when you consider the pass defenses that he had to face (Oregon, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama). Overall, Worley averaged 5.5 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppp to an average quarterback and I expect considerable improvement this season with the entire receiving corps returning. Tennessee’s rushing attack, however, isn’t likely to be as good as it was last season (5.3 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) since all 5 of last year’s starting offensive linemen must be replaced. The rushing numbers certainly won’t be bad with good talent in the backfield solid talent on the line and overall Tennessee’s offense is projected to improve to 0.3 yards per play better than average this season.
My math model using last year’s stats would have favored Utah State by 3 points in this game and my updated ratings only favor Tennessee by 2 points, which is an indication that Utah State may still be underrated. I guess we’ll find out tonight.
BAYLOR (-33) 54 Smu 16
Baylor has the nation’s most potent offense and the Bears are a bully that beats up lesser teams while showing no mercy. Baylor was 7-0 ATS last season when favored by 21 points or more and they’re 18-2 ATS at home the previous 3 seasons. That does not bode well for sub-par SMU team that has a mediocre defense and a young quarterback in Neal Burcham that averaged a pathetic 4.1 yards on 120 pass plays last season as a freshman (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Last year’s starter Garrett Gilbert was actually drafted into the NFL (6th round by the Rams) and his numbers were worse than average last year (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp). If a quarterback with enough talent to get drafted into the NFL had worse than average numbers in June Jones’ system then I’m not expecting much from Burcham in his first year as a starter. Jones has not been able to duplicate the success that he had at Hawaii and the offensive numbers have dropped in each of the past 3 seasons and figure to get worse again this year. I rate SMU’s attack at 0.6 yards per play worse than average this season (-0.1 yppl last year) and Baylor’s defense, while not as good as last season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team), should still be better than average even with just 4 returning starters. SMU is projected to averaged just 4.4 yppl in this game but they’ll run enough plays to score somewhere in the teens.
Baylor, meanwhile, averaged 52 points per game last season against teams that combined to rate at 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, which is actually the defensive rating that I give SMU heading into this season. Baylor’s offense doesn’t project to be quite as good at it was last season, as their numbers from 2013 (622 yards at 7.6 yppl) almost surely would regress towards the mean even if all 11 starters were back. Quarterback Bryce Petty is back along with another stacked corps of speedy receivers and a good running back in Shock Linwood, whose 6.9 ypr average as a backup last year isn’t too much worse than Lache Seastrunk averaged (7.4 ypr). Baylor will still have the best offense in the nation and my model projects 54 points for the Bears in this game, which should be enough to cover at home, which they’ve done 90% of the time the last 3 years.
Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals +140
The Nationals are playing their best ball of the season. They've won 14 of 18 and are in great position to continue their dominance of Seattle. The Nats are 11-0 in their last 11 versus the Mariners and 5-0 in their last 5 in Seattle. The Mariners are a poor 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 0-5 in Iwakuma's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. The Nationals, on the other hand, are 5-0 in their last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. The Nationals are 7-2 in Roark's last 9 starts, 4-1 in his last 5 road starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record.
Michael Alexander
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -156
Duffy allowed one run and four hits in 6 2/3 innings against Minnesota on Tuesday but wasn’t involved in the decision. He has won three of his last four decisions and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his last 14 outings. The Indians are a bit too far off the pace to make the post-season and are a horrible 5-16 record versus lefties on the road.
Brad Diamond
SMU +34
We do realize that SMU is out classed in this battle considering the home standing Bears are currently ranked #10 in the country. In addition, they open under celebratory conditions with their new facility in Waco, McLane Stadium. Even bigger news is the fact Baylor has a shot at winning the new playoff format, becoming a National Champion. HC Briles has done a super job and possesses years of valid coaching at this level. Baylor finished 11-2 last year. But, they fell to UCF(?)in the Fiesta Bowl, a huge letdown for their fans and backers. This time around they zero in with just 10 returning starters, but are deep with 51 letters overall. Plus they have the talents of QB Petty once again. Baylor ended #1 in total offensive yardage (618.8) and has another full-house of skilled players to augment their offensive abilities. One player that will be missed is RB Lache Sistrunk who ran for 100+ plus yards 8 times. Hard trying SMU (5-7) fields 12 starters and 42 letters. HC June Jones (36-41) of the Mustangs (5-7) has talent on hand which will be needed as they face a rough schedule. Jones has not experienced BB losing campaigns as a coach. In this early part of the season we hear the 'Stangs will be a solid offensive unit, but they must improve on a defense which consistently allowed over 400 yards+ per game to opposing offenses....The number opened around 31, and has been driven up to 34 at this writing, both in Vegas and off-shore. The Bears are 1-3 ATS L4. It appears the lines makers are taking away their value with prohibitive numbers. The chalk has covered 4 straight in the series. Still, as the number escalates the value falls to the Mustangs.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Angels -120
This is a great spot to back the Angels at home. Los Angeles is a dominant 45-24 at home this season and have already taken then first 2 games of the series. The Angels will send out Tyler Shoemaker, who has a dominant 2.44 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over 9 home starts and a sizzling 0.88 ERA and 0.541 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Oakland on the other hand will be starting Scott Kazmir, who has an ugly 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 6.19 ERA and 1.531 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Angels.
System - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% are 38-12 (76%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants -151
The San Francisco Giants (73-62) are holding on to one of the final wild card spots in the National League. They are obviously motivated the rest of the way because of their situation, and they have a big edge on the mound today against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (73-62).
Madison Bumgarner is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball, and he has been since he came into the league. The left-hander is 15-9 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.565 WHIP in his last three. Bumgarner is 3-2 with a 1.67 ERA and 1.046 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee.
Kyle Lohse has been decent this season for Milwaukee, but he's overmatched in this one against Bumgarner. Lohse has gone 12-7 with a 3.42 ERA in 26 starts this season, but he's 8-5 with a 4.32 ERA in 16 road starts. The right-hander is also 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in eight career starts against San Francisco.
The Giants are 274-133 (+51.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. The Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 9-2 in Bumgarner's last 11 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.
Dave Price
Arizona Diamondbacks -113
The Rockies can't be trusted on the road, where they are 12-40 in their last 52, even with ace Jorge De La Rosa on the bump. The Rockies are 0-5 in De La Rosa's last five road starts and 0-7 all-time in his starts at Arizona. The Rockies are 19-41 in their last 60 at Arizona, and they have dropped seven of the last nine meetings overall. Chase Anderson is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in a pair of starts versus the Rockies, outdueling De La Rosa in Colorado in one of these victories. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in Anderson's last six starts as a favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +8 over SASKATCHEWAN
Once again we get an opportunity to apply the buy-low, sell-high angle. The Riders come in as winners of five in a row, capped off by last week’s huge win in British Columbia. Take nothing away from Saskatchewan, as they were near flawless in their 20-16 win over B.C and one could argue that it was a flattering score to the Lions. However, we quickly forget that the week before, Saskatchewan should have lost at home to Montreal as 14-point favorites. The big story in Saskatchewan this week is the return of WR Weston Dressler. This guy is as popular in Saskatchewan as Peyton Manning was in Indianapolis. Dressler was released by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday and cleared NFL waivers the following day, making him an unrestricted CFL free agent. His return adds to the hype of the Riders while nobody is talking about Winnipeg. Three weeks ago, Saskatchewan went Winnipeg and defeated the Bombers 23-17. The Riders were outgained on the ground by 150 yards in that game and the only reason they won is because the turnover score was 6-0 in their favor. When you lose the turnover battle 6-0, you’re supposed to get blown out by 30 points but the Riders needed a late defensive TD in the fourth quarter just to win it.
The Bombers go from a 7-point favorite to a 7-point dog, a swing of 14 points in the span of one week. This is only Winnipeg’s second game since August 12, so they figure to be well rested and raring to go. They’re coming off a win over Montreal and despite some recent struggles they are still 6-3 on the year and they are just one game back of Saskatchewan. Winnipeg is going to bring it today. They have lost nine in a row to Saskatchewan on Labour Day Weekend and they’re sick of being the Riders whipping boys. Winnipeg’s Drew Willy is second in the CFL in passing yards to Ricky Ray and it’s also worth noting that he was also Darian Durant’s backup in Saskatchewan the past two years. No question he’ll be jacked up to perform well in his first trip back to Saskatchewan as a member of another team. The Riders played their best game of the season last week and that sticks in the minds of most people. However, they have been otherwise very average in most of their other games this year and now we get to take advantage of their stock being too high. We expect a close one.
Scott Delaney
The only good news for the Milwaukee Brewers from this weekend was that Mark Reynolds broke up Jake Peavy's no-hit bid in the eighth inning. Peavy finished with a one-hitter in 7.2 innings as the San Francisco Giants beat the Brewers 3-1 on Saturday night.
The Brewers lost their fourth straight and seven of nine overall, while the Giants won their fifth straight.
San Francisco stays alive in the postseason hunt, while the Brewers saw their NL Central lead cut to a game over the St. Louis Cardinals, who split a doubleheader with the Chicago Cubs.
Today the Giants should have no issue getting it done in the season finale. Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 3.02) is on the hill, and though I'm not listing pitchers, make note it's certainly to our advantage to have him up, as he's in after a one-hitter against the Colorado Rockies. He had a perfect game after seven innings.
The southpaw is 3-2 with 1.67 ERA in six starts against the Brewers.
Take Frisco here.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Baylor Bears and SMU Mustangs OVER the posted total in college football Sunday action.
The spread is pushing forward towards a five-TD number because the betting public is all over the favorites... but what's also happening is the total is driving upwards despite not much money coming in on it.
That tells me Vegas is begging for people to bet the under. They might have one of those "gut feelings" and trying to force bettors into taking the under. And why shouldn't Vegas be worried about too many "over bets"? These two teams were known highly for their offenses a year ago, and supposedly Baylor is even better this year, offensively, and welcome back QB Bryce Petty.
I think Baylor might be able to name their score, but I'm not so sure SMU won't be able to do the same thing... just not to the same extent.
I'm looking for a high-scoring affair from the very beginning... and the final score in the neighborhood of 57-27. Take the over as your free play of the day.
1♦ SMU-BAYLOR OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Baylor Bears.
Big number on the Bears this Sunday, but I see little reason to back the SMU Mustangs in this battle on the Brazos River.
The Bears are debuting their new McLane Stadium, and Art Briles has never been shy about running up the big number, as Baylor is 22-8 against the spread since late 2011, and better still, the Bears covered all 7 when they were asked to cover 20 points or more last season.
Baylor still has Bryce Petty at QB, while SMU goes with soph QB Burcham. Hard to see the Mustangs keeping pace in this one, that is for sure.
SMU is just 5-11 as a road underdog since 2010, and the last meeting between the teams in 2012 produced a 59-24 Baylor hammer-job.
Go ahead and lay it.
2♦ BAYLOR
Gabriel Dupont
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Padres - Winning momentum is on San Diego's side, as it's now won four straight. And the fact this win streak includes a couple wins over So Cal-rival Los Angeles has the Padres fired up even more.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Dodgers - Not sure how many more heartbreaking losses the first-place Dodgers can take. Last night they experienced another extra-inning loss, as Alexi Amarista singled in the winning run with one out in the 10th inning, giving the Padres to a 2-1 win.
In conclusion, why SAN DIEGO is my SMART PLAY in this game - Los Angeles' lead in the National League West is down to 2 1/2 games over San Francisco, which beat Milwaukee 3-1 for its fifth consecutive victory. Los Angeles' lead is its smallest since it was up by the same margin on Aug. 6.
And while the Dodgers are playing not to lose, the Padres are on a roll right now, and playing with no regard to winning or losing - they have nothing to lose in their minds. For the first time in franchise history, the Padres have managed to win extra-inning games on three straight days. They'll complete the sweep tonight.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
My free play for today is on the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have suddenly found themselves in the thick of the National League Central race, and ride into this game on a four-game win streak. The Cincinnati Reds are distant in the division and wild-card races, and I don't see them contending today.
The Pirates have won the first two games of the three-game series despite scoring in only two innings. They had a two-run rally in the eighth Friday for a 2-1 victory, and last nigt used a three-run first to hang on for a 3-2 victory.
Though the Reds are coming with Johnny Cueto today, he is mired in a two-start losing streak in which he has allowed six runs over 11 1-3 innings for a 4.76 ERA, and now he has to face a Pirates team that is a major league-best 24-9 at home since June 19.
Take the Bucs today.
2♦ PITTSBURGH