Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday August, 5

Wunderdog

Arizona at New Orleans
Pick: Under 37.5

While Drew Brees has become the $100 million man, he will get limited work here. The bulk of the QB duties will be shared by Luke McCown, and Sean Canfield. The Saints lost three defensive players to free agency, so the defense will be looking quite a bit different. Offense won’t the problem for the Saints this year - it is defense, so expect special emphasis to be made on that side of the ball. The Cardinals will have a look at both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton who are battling for the starting position. But, most of the snaps are expected to go to rookie Ryan Lindley and backup Richard Bartel. Neither of those two is going to do a lot of scoring. These games also tend to be lower scoring, and with the Saints not needing much tuning-up on offense, look for the defense to be a priority. Nearly two thirds of the public is lining up on the OVER here. I'm going the other way. Take the UNDER.

JR O'Donnell

Arizona +3

Let's Grab the Down Right Tough D here with these Arizona Cards + 3 in the HOF Game.... Huge Huge holes & question marks with the "Who Dat" crew... The Cards will have a Qb battle & that will be a motivation to these Cards.... The early reports have WR Michael Floyd on fire and we have Pittsburgh's own Larry Fritzgerald a flat out stud!!! The Cards D will be the key here as other early reports have the D looking sweet from Flagstaff.. We feel Cards Ken Whisenhunt wants to hang up a W.... Play the Cards

Dave Essler

New Orleans -155 ML

Yes, I know that only one book has the ML. The rest will soon. People will look to fade New Orleans in this sot, given the off-season controversy, and I may well do that come the regular season, but not here. In THIS game they've got something to prove. Yes, the Cardinals have a QB competition going on, but that's to their detriment here. Breese doesn't need the reps, and quite frankly Chase Daniel got tons of reps while Breese was out, and in my opinion he's better than both Kolb or Skelton. I even like Canfield better than both Cardinal QB's, quite frankly. From a depth standpoint, which is what most of the preseason is all about, there is little or no doubt who the deeper team really is here. Do you think you will see Larry Fitzgerald for long? I doubt it. The Saints fifth and six WR's are just that much more talented, and the Saints will be that much more organized for THIS game.

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants and Rockies put the wraps on their three-game series at Coors Field Sunday afternoon where Tim Lincecum takes the hill for San Francisco knowing he is back in solid KW form with 32 strikeouts and 7 walks in his last four starts, going 3-1 in the four tilts. With the Giants 10-3 the last 13 games in this series, and the Rockies just 6-26 in games played on weekend this season, look for the former Cy Young winner to come up a winner here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Charlie Scott

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3

I haven't bet the Hall of Fame Game in a decade. However, due to special circumstances and having a case of the Jones'es and being excited for the start of Football, I have a Play. Make no mistake about it, the Saints as a Team are pissed off about how they were treated & disciplined in "Bounty Gate" and want to show they can compete this year. The key to handicapping Pre-Season is finding reasons for 1 team to be motivated and really want to win over the team that would rather just get the reps and stay injury free. The Saints are Motivated ! While AZ Coach Whisenhunt has posted two 0-4 SU preseason campaigns during his first 5 seasons calling the shots for AZ and owns a 7-13 career win/loss mark in the Pre-Season. Bet Early and don't bet anything more than -3, as for Money Management, Bet 25% of what a regular season wager would be for You.

Ben Burns

Toronto vs. Oakland
Pick: Over

Yesterday's contest resulted in a pitcher's duel. The score was 1-0 going into the 9th inning and finished at 2-1, after 11 innings.That suited me just fine, as I had the Jays (+1.5) and had noted that I expected runs to be at a premium. We should see some more scoring on Sunday afternoon though.

Millone has given up five earned runs in each of his last two starts. He took the loss in each of those games, 8-0 and 10-4. The first of those (the 10-4 game) came against these same Jays, so the Toronto hitters have recently had a look at him.

Laffey was the opposing pitcher in that 10-4 Toronto win on 7/26. He wasn't much better than Millone though, as he allowed four earned runs, while lasting only 5 2/3 innings. Laffey followed up that poor performance by getting hammered by the Mariners at Safeco. In 4 2/3 innings, he gave up seven earned runs.

The Jays haven't faced a southpaw in any of their last four starts. They'll be up against one here though. That's noteworthy as the "over" is a lucrative 19-8-2 when they've matched up vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile, the A's have seen the "over" go 21-15-4 vs. left-handers. The A's average 4.5 runs per game vs. southpaws and the Jays average 5.1. Both numbers are much higher than what they average vs. right-handers. Consider the Over.

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Huge game for the Pirates as they try and avoid a costly sweep in Cincinnati. AJ Burnett has been money in the bank all season, so I'll back the Pirates to salvage the finale.

Scott Spreitzer

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Haren returns after recovering from a sore back and says he's ready to go. The good news for Haren is that he's backed by a ridiculously hot lineup. The Angels, led by Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are knocking opposing pitches all over the yard. In fact, Pujols has hit six home runs in his last five games. The Halos plate an average of 7.8 rpg in road day action against lefties. Today, they'll face Francisco Liriano, a lefty the Angels have crushed this season. Liriano, making his second start for Chicago has been tagged for a 7.63 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and .311 BAA in three starts against the Halos this season. I believe yesterday's 10-inning win was almost as important for the Angels as the win for Texas was when they came from behind to beat the Angels on Wednesday night. And like Texas, I look for LAA to build on the win. I'm backing the Angels on Sunday.

MTi Sports

Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Houston Astros

In the 2010 MLB Handicapping Bible, we published this team trend, ATL007: The Braves are 0-7 (-3.0 rpg) since 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they never led. Since its publication, the Braves are 0-3 in this spot moving them to 0-10. Note that, despite being a 200-plus favorite in every game, they lost by an average of 3.3 runs per game. Consider Houston.

Chris Elliott

Houston vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -1.5

The Houston Astros (36-72) square off against the Atlanta Braves (61-46) on Sunday afternoon in the rubber game of this 3 game set. The Astros will be looking to win back to back games for the first time since June 27th and win their first road series since June 10th!

Bud Norris will toe the rubber for Houston with a record of 5-8 on the year a 5.02 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. In his last 10 starts he is 0-7 with a 7.10 ERA. The Astros have lost 8 straight Norris road starts. In 2 starts vs. Atlanta, he is 0-1 with a 8.74 ERA.

The Braves will counter with 26 year old right hander Kris Medlen. He has made 39 appearances for the Braves this year, all but 1 as a reliever. He is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He looked good in his 1 start for Atlanta scattering 4 hits over 5 innings and allowing 1 run while picking up the victory over Miami. Medlen came up for the Braves in 2010 and pitched very well; in 31 appearances and 14 starts he was 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP before succumbing to Tommy John Surgery. He missed all of the 2011 season and has come back in 2012 and followed up where he left off in 2010. He has never faced the Astros as a starter in his career.

The Astros come into this game with the worst record in all of baseball. Friday night was their second road win in 25 contests. They have an MLB worst run differential of -137.

Atlanta has been on a roll and sit 3 games back of the division leading Washington Nationals in the NL East. They are 8-2 in their last 10 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 games against the Astros. They have a run differential of +57, good for 7th in MLB.

The Braves are the better team at home with the better starting pitcher. Take the Braves to win in a route. Take the Braves -1.5 Against the Spread

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates fit a Nice system that plays on road dogs with a total of 8 or less, that are off a 1 run road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs with 5+ hits and 5+ Men left on base. The Pirates have won 10 of 16 in the last road game of a series. Pittsburgh has also won 8 of 11 off 2 losses this season. They have A.J. Burnett on the mound and he has been stellar of late with a 1.12 era and 3 straight wins. The Reds will counter with Bailey, who has a 5.17 home era. In his start vs the Pirates back in June he was hit pretty hard allowing 6 runs in 3 innings. Look for the Pirates to get this one.

Dave Price

Minnesota Twins +1.5 -119

Boston has lost 4 in a row, 3 straight to the Twins, to fall to 0-8 in its last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Sox are clearly being overvalued today as they are 5-17 in their last 22 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Twins are 7-2 in their last 9 overall, 8-3 in Blackburn's last 11 starts, 5-1 in his last 6 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Twins on the run line.

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Nationals -1.5 -105

We'll take the Nats on the run line with Strasburg on the hill. The talented young right-hander has been lights out against the Marlins. Washington has won his last 3 starts against them, during which he has allowed no earned runs in 18 innings. He has made 6 career starts versus Miami and has it to 1 earned run or fewer in 5 of those.

Miami's Nolasco doesn't provide the same level of confidence. He's 0-4 in his last 4 starts and has given up at least 4 runs in each of those. The Marlins have lost 3 of those by 4 runs or more. They have also lost 8 of his last 10 starts with those 8 defeats coming by an average of 5.0 runs. Bet the Nationals on the run line.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox lost in extra innings to the Angels on Saturday, just their third loss in the last 10 games. Still, the Sox have a 1 1/2 game lead over Detroit for first place in the AL Central. The Angels need to do better than they have if they are going to grab one of the two AL Wild Card spots. Right now the Angels are tied with Oakland for the two wild card spots. However, Detroit is just a half game back and Baltimore and Tampa Bay just 1 1/2 games back. The Angels pitching staff has really been horrible of late, allowing 39 runs over their last four games. The White Sox don't mind, scoring at least four runs in 10 of their last 12 games. Dan Haren has just been ok for the Angels, going 8-8 with a 4.59 ERA this season. Francisco Liriano gets the starts for the Sox and he's only 3-10 with a 5.18 ERA this year. I don't expect either of these pitchers to be around long in this game. However, the White Sox have been the better team of late and I'm sticking with them at home here on Sunday after losing Saturday's game.