Strike Point Sports
Arizona / New Orleans Under 34.5
I think that New Orleans has something to prove in this game. But rather than the offense coming out and trying to blow out an opponent in a "meaningless" preseason game I think that the Saints defense is actually the group that is going to come out and try to make a statement. There has been a lot of talk about New Orleans and dirty play and about how bad their defense has been the past few years. That is all you heard all offseason. But now the defense will have a chance to go out and let its play do the talking. Both teams have an extra preseason game so I expect to see the starters even less than usual in this one (maybe one series each). And I bet a lot of key offensive players don't even suit up on either side. No matter who plays and who doesn't I don't think we will see much offense here and I think that this one will stay under.
CHRIS JORDAN
I don't think anyone can argue the Reds are currently the most hottest team in Major League Baseball the past month. They've built the best record in the bigs with their impressive run since July 6, as they're on a dominating 22-3 tear, including wins in the first two games of this series with their National League Central-rival Pittsburgh.
During this run, Cincinnati has built a season-high 5-1/2-game lead over the Pirates, who have lost four of their last six games overall. And even though the Bucs hand the ball to veteran A.J. Burnett, who has arguably been the team's most consistent pitcher, I think Reds are in a great spot to extend that division lead against a weary Pittsburgh team that will play its 10th road game in 11 days.
Once again we're seeing manager Dusty Baker work his wonders, and I'm sure he's done a good job in emphasizing to his troops just how important this series is, and will keep them focused on increasing that lead in the Central. I'm laying the money with the Reds tonight, and I won't worry about listing pitchers. I just want the better team.
3* CINCINNATI
SCOTT DELANEY
Today I am making money with the Cincinnati Reds over the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates and I want you to be sure you list both Homer Bailey over A.J. Burnett.
These two oppose one another for the second time in two months, as they faced one another on June 5, when Burnett got the win despite a sketchy performace that saw him last just five innings and allow three earned runs. Bailey didn't do much better, getting pummeled for six earned runs behind eight hits and two walks over three innings of work.
But since that outing, the Cincinnati right-hander is a solid 5-2, and has been one of the Reds' more consistent pitchers since the All-Star break. Contributing to a startling 22-3 run by the Reds, Bailey is actually 4-0 since July 2, with a 2.61 ERA.
He comes in after a rough start, against the San Diego Padres, who tagged him for nine hits and six earned runs over 3-2/3 innings. It was his worst outing since that June 5 start versus the Bucs. So I think he'll be out for better results, especially since the Reds are probably the hottest team in baseball right now.
List both and play Cincinnati in this one.
3* CINCINNATI
MATT RIVERS
Sunday's free play is another total, as I see some runs being scored at Turner Field when the Astros and Braves conclude their 3 game series.
It will be Bud Norris against Kris Medlen. Norris has been serving them up of late, allowing 13 runs over his last 17-plus innings pitched. Each of his last 3 starts have wound up going over the total. On the road this season, Norris is just 2-7 with an over 7 ERA.
Kris Medlen is making just his second start since coming out of the bullpen, and while his first was decent, I feel pretty sure he is not going to be going the route and shutting out the 'Stros in this spot.
The Over is now 6-3 after a rare Under in last night's meeting.
This is not a big total, and one big inning by either side could very easily propel this one into the Over column once again. I say it happens.
Houston-Atlanta Over the total.
3* HOUSTON-ATLANTA OVER
DOM CHAMBERS
Sunday’s free play is on the St. Louis Cardinals to beat the Milwaukee Brewers on the run line.
Kyle Lohse starts for the Cardinals. He his putting together a very good season, going 11-2 with a 2.91 ERA overall. In his last three starts, he is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA. In the one start he did not get the decision, in his last three, he gave up only two runs and the Cardinals beat the Dodgers, 3-2.
He has been very good.
For the Brewers, Marco Estrada gets the start. He is 0-4 with a 4.34 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA.
He has given up 11 runs in his last 18 innings. He can be knocked around.
The Cardinals should finish off the sweep, they covered the run line in the first two game of the series and will do so again.
Take the Cardinals on the run line.
3* CARDINALS -1.5
JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie will be the same as it was on Saturday, Seattle and the Yankees to stay Under the total.
With yesterday's 1-0 Under for free, my comp play run is now 7-4 the past 11 days.
The Yanks were blanked on two hits by Felix Hernandez on Saturday, and while Hisashi Iwakuma may not be in Hernandez' league, he has been pretty efficient lately, going 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts - including allowing just one run in five innings of work on July 25th versus the Yankees. Each of Iwakuma's last three starts have all stayed Under the total. Seattle overall is on a 10-3-3 Under run their past 16 games.
Freddy Garcia will counter for New York, and each of his last three starts have also played Under the total, including a seven-plus innings of three run ball against the M's at Safeco on July 24th. Since returning to the rotation for the injured Andy Pettitte, all six of Garcia's starts have ended up going Under the total.
Series numbers now show 8-1-1 Under the total the last ten times the teams have faced one another.
I expect more than a 1-0 final today, but I don't expect there to be enough runs to get this game Over the total.
Mariners-Yankees Under on Sunday.
2* SEATTLE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
JR O'Donnell
Angels / White Sox Over 10
Angels send out righty Dan Haren who is 8-8, with a big 4.59 ERA & 1.37 WHIP against the Sox'x Francisco Liriano (LHP) 3-10, 5.18 ERA & 1,43 WHIP. Teams are both in the hunt for October's playoffs. Still neither pitcher has shown the ability to keep the game under "5" runs or even more. We see this game going into the 6-4 or higher range.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +173 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yankees have cooled right off with just five wins over their past 15 games while the Mariners have won eight of their past nine, including a win here yesterday to even the series at 1-1.
Freddy Garcia comes in with a 4-5 record and a 5.10 ERA. His troublesome groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 38%/26%/36% is plenty reason to lay off him when being asked to lay a price, let alone a significant one. At home, Garcia is 2-3 with a 6.28 ERA and overall the Yanks have lost his last three starts. His velocity has dropped each of the past three years. Freddy Garcia is a complete wildcard. He is in no way to be trusted in this range. He’s as capable of any pitcher in the league of having some crooked numbers put up against him.
Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed just two solo homers in his last two starts spanning 13 innings with 16 Ks in those outings. He's only given up four earned runs in his last 19 innings with 23 Ks. He has an elite groundball rate of 53%, his walks are way down and his strikeout rate is way up. These are great signs that Iwakuma has his confidence back and has adjusted to life in the major leagues. He and the red-hot Mariners are a much better option taking back a tag like this than Freddy Garcia and the cold Yankees are spotting this ridiculous number.
DETROIT -1½ -101 over Cleveland
The Indians have lost eight straight and have been outscored 64-20 over that span. No team holds a worse OPS than Cleveland’s .669 mark over the team’s last 22 games. The Indians will now turn to career minor-leaguer Chris Seddon to try and snap out of this thing.
Seddon last pitched in the majors in 2010. He allowed 14 runs in 22 innings. Prior to that he pitched in 2007 and allowed 19 runs in 17 innings. He has pitched 39 major league innings over the past five years, all with Seattle, and posted a career ERA of 7.01. Seddon is a soft tossing lefty who pitches to contact and was never considered to be much of a prospect. At 29, he has 11 minor league seasons under his belt. The sinking Indians are throwing him in the fire in a desperation move and chances are it’s not going to work out.
The Tigers are warming up again. They’ve won three in a row and recently went through a three-week stretch in which they went 15-5. They’re just 1½-games back of Chicago.
Max Scherzer has 151 k’s in 123 innings and will face a Tribe club that is seeing BB’s. Scherzer has electric stuff and although he can be erratic, he couldn’t have handpicked a riper team tahn these Indians. The Tigers have won the first two games of this set, 10-2 and 6-1. That was over Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jiminez. This matchup is the most lopsided of them all.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -133
Last year, you would have never gotten the Philadelphia Phillies at this price at home with Cliff Lee on the mound. The price is right to pull the trigger Sunday and back one of the best starters in the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Lee is just 2-6 on the season over 18 starts despite a 3.73 ERA and 1.181 WHIP, which are good numbers. The left-hander pitched seven shutout innings of an 8-0 victory at Washington his last time out. Lee is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Arizona is 29-59 in its last 88 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Philly is 11-2 in Lee's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Phillies Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +107
The Rays have the edge with ace David Price on the rubber. The southpaw is 14-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 21 starts and 7-2 at home with a 2.03 ERA in 10 starts. Each of those 7 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Plus, Price has had Baltimore's number. He's 6-2 (8-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.45 in 11 career starts against the Orioles. He's 2-0 against the O's this season, holding them to just 1 run in 14.3 innings. The Rays won those 2 games by 5 and 9 runs, respectively. Take Tampa Bay on the run line.
Andrew Lange
Toronto at Oakland
Play: Under 7.5
It has been a wild series in Oakland with the last two games lasting a combined 26 innings. And if it weren't a for a 2-out 9th inning home run, we'd been looking at three straight unders. That is the way I'm going to look this afternoon with Aaron Laffey and Tommy Milone on the hill. Laffey has been pretty decent at times this year. He added a cutter to his repertoire and while still not ideal for the American League East, I think he'll be a good fit for this ball park. Milone has had back-to-back starts vs. Tampa and Toronto in which he got smacked around some (13 IP, 10 ER). He's a big home/road split guy and the outing against the Rays marked the first time all season he allowed more than 2 runs at home. I do have some concern about the health of the bullpens but I think both pitches are capable of reaching the 6th inning and beyond. We also have a long term UNDER umpire in Phil Cuzzi who with his crew are probably eager to end this marathon series and get out of town. The juice is pretty heavy but still worth some sort of play at the key number of 7.5.
GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET
HALL OF FAME GAME PICK
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5, ov 37)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2.5, un 37)
The 2012 NFL preseason gets underway when the annual Hall of Fame Game returns to the schedule today. The New Orleans Saints probably can't wait to start playing football.
When the defending NFC South champions take the field at Fawcett Stadium in Canton, Ohio for Sunday's matchup with the Arizona Cardinals, they'll be doing so without the services of both head coach Sean Payton and middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma. Each were suspended for the entire 2012 campaign by league Commissioner Roger Goodell due to their knowledge and involvement of the Saints' notorious "pay-for-performance" system orchestrated by former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, with the controversial decision capping an offseason filled with turmoil and upheaval for the team.
New Orleans' tumultuous offseason also contained a lengthy contract impasse between the front office and star quarterback Drew Brees, but those issues were resolved when the club signed the record-setting triggerman to a massive five-year, $100 million deal just prior to the start of training camp.
Brees and the first-team offense are slated to get in some work, though journeyman Luke McCown and 2011 practice-squad member Sean Canfield will likely get the majority of the snaps under center when the Saints have the ball.
The game will provide an opportunity for New Orleans fans to catch a first glimpse at a refurbished defense that will no longer have Williams making the calls from the sidelines or Vilma barking out signals on the field. The unit also lost three starters from last year's group, with tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker JoLonn Dunbar and cornerback Tracy Porter all departing via free agency.
The Cardinals entered camp with some important questions of their own that need answering, namely at quarterback. Arizona thought it had that all- important position solved when it traded for Kevin Kolb last summer and gave the former Philadelphia Eagle a long-term contract, but he went just 3-6 and missed a good portion of the 2011 season with injuries, enabling backup John Skelton to make an impression by engineering five wins in his seven starts.
Kolb currently rates as a slight favorite in the battle and will draw the starting assignment on Sunday despite sustaining a minor thigh contusion earlier in the week. Both quarterbacks are expected to play sparingly, however, with rookie sixth-round choice Ryan Lindley and holdover Richard Bartel in line for more extensive time as the two compete for the No. 3 slot on the depth chart.
Arizona does come in rather thin at running back, with returning starter Beanie Wells presently on the physically unable to perform list as he recovers from an offseason knee procedure and 2011 second-round pick Ryan Williams questionable for the game as he continues to make his way back from a torn patella tendon that sidelined him his entire rookie season.
The Saints are projected to be without starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer (groin) and Patrick Robinson (shoulder), which should provide second-year pro Johnny Patrick and offseason pickups Elbert Mack and Marquis Johnson an opportunity to state their case for the open nickel back job.
Projected Score: ARZ 20, NOR 10
Teddy Covers
Miami vs. Washington
Pick: Washington -1.5
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the struggling Ricky Nolasco these days. Miami has lost each of his last four starts and eight of his last ten. Six of those eight losses have come by four runs or more, non-competitive defeats. And it’s worth noting that one of the losses that didn’t come by multi-run margins was a game in which the ice cold Marlins lineup suddenly exploded for seven runs against the Cardinals…yet Miami still found a way to lose the game.
Nor is it hard to make a case for supporting Stephen Strasburg, particularly coming off a poor effort like he had against the Phillies last weekend. Strasburg completely dominated Miami in both previous meetings against them this year: 12 innings of work, zero runs allowed, with a 13-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It was a similar story in two starts against the Marlins last year: 12 innings, five hits, one run allowed, with the exact same 13-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Its surely worth noting how good Strasburg has been coming off a poor effort. He allowed four runs or more on three previous occasions prior to that last start against Philadelphia. On his next trip to the hill following those rough outings, Strasburg has allowed a grand total of two earned runs in 19 innings of work, and the Nationals won all three games by multi-run margins (combined final scores of 17-5).
Yesterday’s come-from-behind thriller for the Nationals (six runs in the bottom of the eighth) was just the latest in a long series of Marlins meltdowns; another truly disheartening defeat for a team just a half game out of last place. 11 of their last 13 losses have come by two runs or more, and they are just 5-13 in their last 18 ballgames. Expect another ugly loss here. Take the Nationals on the Run Line.
WUNDERDOG
San Francisco at Colorado
Pick:Under 11
After two games that averaged over 20 runs each, we get some value on the UNDER here as things revert back towards the mean. The Giants games' average 8.1 runs per game this season and the team scores only 4.0 per game vs. RHP. Over the past two seasons, the Giants are 14-3 UNDER following a game in which their bullpen got rocked for 4+ runs, including a perfect 8-0 UNDER if they gave up 5+ runs. And, after games that saw 15+ runs scored, San Francisco is 21-7 UNDER the past three seasons. Take the UNDER.
Hollywood Sports
Blue Jays at Athletics
Prediction: Under
Toronto (52-55) won Game Two of this series by a 3-1 score yesterday -- and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory. The Blue Jays have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. They send out Laffey who is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. Laffey is looking to rebound from a subpar effort where he allowed seven runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work at Seattle. Look for Laffey to be very focused in this contest as he looks to redeem himself from that poor performance. He has been giving up fewer runs on the road where he has a 3.49 ERA as compared to his 5.14 ERA when at home. Oakland (58-49) has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total following a loss. The A's have also played a decisive 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with the number in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Milone who is 9-8 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. Milone has been outstanding at home where he enjoys a 1.51 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and .196 opponent's batting average as compared to his rough 5.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .313 opponent's batting average when on the road. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Milone on the mound. The A's have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Milone pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Considering that the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams, the Under is a nice proposition for this contest. Take the Under in this one.