Art Aronson
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -2½
What you see is what you get each year from Pittsburgh, which builds through the draft, doesn’t sign a lot of free agents and basically comes at you. How much Ben Roethlisberger has left is a question asked every September given the number of hits he takes. The biggest change will be at defensive coordinator, where legend Dick Lebeau is gone – which may mean the LBs will be freer to attack the pocket.
The Vikes have Adrian Peterson back and things seem to have calmed down a bit in Minnesota. But then again, Mike Wallace has been on board for only a few months. Vikes are looking for a huge Year 2 improvement from Teddy Bridgewater and if they get it they can make things sticky in the North.
In 2014/15 the Steelers were 1-3 SU/ATS in the preseason and in 2013/14 they were 0-4 SU/ATS. After missing the playoffs in 2013/14, Pittsburgh returned last year only to lose 30-17 to the Ravens in the Wildcard round. Mike Tomlin has clearly not been very worried about winning in the preseason the last few years.
Last year the Vikes went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the preseason, after going 1-3 SU/ATS in 2013/14 and 1-3 SU/ATS in 2012/13. For a team which is desperately trying to get back to the playoffs, the preseason suddenly becomes a lot more important.
There are many players on Minnesota which have something to prove, while Pittsburgh will surely be happy to just go through the motions and leave Canton without any significant injuries.
Minnesota would seem to be the more motivated team in this one, consider laying the short points.
Raphael Esparza
Pittsburgh vs Minnesota
Play: Over 34½
Yes, I know most NFL Preseason Hall of Fame Games go under the total, but Sunday night I see offense ahead of defense. Both teams love to run the ball, but it wouldn't shock me to see the passing game established by both teams, and if that happens I see scoring early. Pittsburgh's defense is under new coaching, so we could see some early hiccups, and the Vikings offense could be a surprise all season long. So again this Hall of Fame game will go over the 34.5 number. This total opened at 34, and public money came in on the OVER early, and I see more public money being bet on the OVER until kickoff.
Tony Karpinski
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers +3½
This is the annual Hall of Fame game and I am backing the Steelers in this one. I am excited to see the Steelers new look on defense as DC Butler replaces the legend LeBeau. This is a good chance to blitz often and test the Vikes QB's. Look for Steelers RB to see a lot of time because Bell is out 3 games with a suspension. Take the Steelers by 13 here on Sunday night.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Pick: Pittsburgh +4
The preseason can be a good time to back underdogs, particulary in weeks one and four when so little is at stake. Here we find Pittsburgh as a dog despite winning a division title in 2014. That's because Minnesota went 4-0 last August under Mike Zimmer. However, Zimmer was a rookie head coach then and rookie coaches often want to show the fans and their new bosses that they hired the right man for the job. Zimmer has nothing to prove in 2015, coming off a decent inaugural season. This is still a rebuilding Vikings squad, one that has a young QB rotation and a defense ranked #25 against the run (121.4 yards per game). They face a talented and deep Steelers roster, one with a good QB rotation in Ben Roethlisberger, Landry Jones and Taj Boyd. Jones has shown improvement as the Steelers #3 QB, making the kind of progress over the past several practices in training camp that generally seemed to elude him over his first two seasons. A big reason is that he is playing with the big boys, throwing to targets such as Antonio Brown, Heath Miller, Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, plus they add speedy rookie WR Sammie Coates (Auburn). Coach Mike Tomlin is 20-13 in preseason with all this talent, partly because he demands physical play even in August when many opponents are going through the motions to try to stay healthy. Even in practice the last week he was pleased with the physical play. This is a deep, talented young linebacking corps and the secondary has a slew of players fighting for roster spots with 26-year-old CB Cortez Allen and Mike Mitchell, plus rookies Senquez Golson (second round), Doran Grant and Gerod Holliman. Pittsburgh is on a 5-1 spread run and this shapes up as a good matchup for them. Take the Steelers.
DAVE COKIN
BLUE JAYS VS. YANKEES
PLAY: BLUE JAYS +126
No need to go into great detail about what’s happening with the Blue Jays right now. That is one scorching hot baseball team and they’re now in position to finish off what would be a huge weekend sweep at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees have not had the greatest week of all time. Michael Pineda is off to the disabled list, the Yanks really didn’t add anything of substance at the deadline, and the offense got bogged down thanks in part to having had to face a pair of knuckleballers who happened to have that goofy pitch dancing all over the place.
Maybe it gets a little easier today for the Yankees as they face Marco Estrada. But the 2015 version of Estrada has not resembled past editions. Estrada is never going to be an ace, but one thing he’s done a great job of limiting this year is the home run ball. That has always been an issue for Estrada, but whether it’s just some fluke luck or something else, Estrada’s fly balls are not leaving the year this season. Of course, that could change at any moment and Yankee Stadium can be hell on a fly ball tendency righty. But I think Estrada could be okay here.
Masahiro Tanaka and his elbow will take the mound for the Yankees. I’m honestly amazed that Tanaka has hung in all season when it certainly looked as though elbow surgery was in his future back in the early portion of the campaign. But one has to also wonder about how effective Tanaka is going to be down the stretch. He has tailed off a bit lately and while there hasn’t been a velocity dip, he’s simply been more hittable lately. If that’s the case again today, watch out, as this Toronto team is just crushing baseballs.
I’m not brimming with confidence as far as Estrada goes, but all he has to be is acceptable to allow his teammates an excellent chance at winning another game. I certainly like the idea of getting a nice price with an insanely hot team and unless Tanaka is razor sharp, it’s tough envisioning him dominating this Toronto lineup. I’ll take my chances with the Blue Jays as dogs today.
Scott Spreitzer
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Boston Red Sox +118
Henry Owens makes his second Major League start of his career on Sunday. The Red Sox southpaw had his way with hitters during his time in the minors, posting a 3.30 ERA & .207 BAA since 2012. While his Major League debut ended in a 13-3 Boston loss in the Bronx on August 4, I felt the 23-year old showed plenty of promise. Owens held the Yankees to three earned runs, five hits, and one walk, while striking out five batters in a very tough environment for a first time starter. Suffice it to say, there are plenty of Red Sox personnel who're excited about the young prospect from Huntington Beach. Justin Verlander looked solid in recent back-to-back starts, before getting shelled for five earned runs on 10 hits in five innings last time out against Kansas City. The Tigers enter this one, just 1-8 in Verlander's nine starts in 2015. David Ortiz owns a .345 batting average with six extra-base hits in 29 at-bats against the Tiger hurler, and Pablo Sandoval has lit-up the right-hander, also. There's also a good chance the Boston lineup will face the Tigers' bullpen, (ranked 27th in ERA), for at least a couple of innings. Henry Owens is an unknown by many at this point, but we like what we saw against the Yanks and we'll back the lefty here as a short dog.
Mike Lundin
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +170
The struggling San Diego Padres are coming into this contest looking to avoid suffering a three-game sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies and a sixth straight loss overall. The Phillies have been swinging hot bats of late and I like the price we get on them claiming this series finale as they send Jerome Williams to the mound. Williams is looking for his first win away from home this season going 0-6 with an atrocious 8.02 ERA in nine road starts. He's off five innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers though and he's 3-3 with a more than respectable 2.18 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego. He has its current roster limited to a .068 AVG over 44 at bats while San Diego have a .233 AVG at home for the year and has mustered only 15 runs over its last seven at Petco Park. They've let down Andrew Cashner on more than one occasion as he's 2-5 with a 3.62 ERA home at San Diego this season. He's 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in eight career appearances against Philadelphia but has struggled mightily in day games this year posting a 5.01 ERA through eight starts.
Notes
Philadelphia is 13-5 in its last 18 games as an underdog.
San Diego is 2-6 in Cashner's last eight home starts.
Philadelphia has won 35 of the last 51 meetings at Petco Park.
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -178
San Diego will look t avoid the home sweep and take finale here. They fits a Powerful bounce back system that plays on home favorites off a home favored loss at -200 or higher if they scored 2 or less runs and the opponent scored 4 or less runs in a road dog win. The Phillies have lost 9 of 12 as a road dog in this range. Cashner goes today for the Padres and he is 2-0 with a 1.08 era vs Philadelphia. J. Williams counters for the Phils who have lost 8 of his 9 road starts as he has a 8.01 road era. Look for the Padres to salvage he last game.
Marc Lawrence
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -129
Edges - Cardinals: John Lackey 4-1 career team starts versus Milwaukee, and 6-2 last eight team starts during the month of August. Brewers: Jimmy Nelson 0-3 career team starts in this series, and 1-3 day starts this season. With the Redbirds 13-5 the last 18 games in this park, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Red Dog Sports
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +133
The Blue Jays are hot as they have won 9 of their last 10. Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Smoak and Josh Donaldson as well as Jose Bautista have led the way. Tanaka starts for NYY and the reason they are big home favorites but nice value on Toronto near +133 on Sunday afternoon.
Jesse Schule
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5.
The Nats are a game and a half back of the surging Mets in the NL East, and they wrap up a home series versus the Rockies here in Game three on Sunday. They can't afford to slip up in games like this if they want to catch New York, and I think they'll cruise here with Mad Max on the mound. Scherzer (11-8, 2.31 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits, striking out nine batters in six innings in a home win over Arizona his last time out. He's been at his best in early games, going 5-3 with a miniscule 1.47 ERA in nine starts in the afternoon. Colorado will hand the ball to Yohan Flande, who makes just his third start of the season. Flande (2-1, 3.54 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits, including a home run in five innings of work in a loss to St. Louis in his most recent start. He's appeared in three day games so far this season, and the results have not been good, posting a 6.75 ERA. Flande will not be expected to go deep into this ballgame, and that means the Rockies will need to count on their bullpen, that ranks dead last in the National League with an ERA of 4.50.
Big Al
Cincinnati vs. Arizona
Pick: Cincinnati
Now that Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake have been traded away (to the Royals and Giants respectively), second-year rookie RH Anthony Desclafani is the de-facto ace and #1 starter on this team. That may seem like a stretch, but actually Desclafani is pitching very well so far, posting a 3.71 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 126 innings. And he's been even better recently, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts, with 17 strikeouts in 20 innings. Even more impressive is the fact that two of those last three starts were against the St. Louis Cardinals (one home and one away) and the third was in Colorado against the Rockies. Desclafani has never faced the Diamondbacks before, however he's pitched much better all season on the road than he has at home. In 10 starts in Cincy, Desclafani is 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA but in 11 starts elsewhere, he is 4-2 with a very nice 2.41. Heading into this afternoon's game, Cincy has taken five of the last seven meetings here in Arizona.
Soccer Authority
Arsenal v West Ham
Pick: West Ham
We're playing West Ham +1.5 on the Asian Handicap at +102
It's true that Arsenal have a fantastic record of beating West Ham but we believe the Gunners have been favoured too much by the Public and the price of -350 is far too short.
Slaven Bilic has taken over as coach from Sam Allrdyce at West Ham, Bilic has an almost impeccable record of starting off his managerial jobs, don't be surprised to see the Hammers give Arsenal a tough opening game
Verdict: West Ham have a very underrated defence and with Bilic at the Helm this season everything may just click into place. Take value of the spread
Power Sports
New York vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Mets came into yday riding a seven-game win streak. That's over now after the Rays dealt them a 5-4 loss. The bulk of the scoring Saturday, for both teams, came in the 1st inning. But here, the Mets should struggle to score throughout as they must face Chris Archer. I like the hosts here as NY is due to "give some back."
Despite a pedestrian team start record, Archer has fantastic numbers this year, most notably a sub-1.00 WHIP, one of only two A.L. pitchers that can claim that. He's allowed 2 ER or less in four consecutive starts & there's actually been only four times this year (out of a possible 23 starts) that he's given up more than three runs. He averages 7.9 strikeouts per start and has a 180-34 KW ratio in 148 2/3 innings. This is a great pitcher.
While the Mets have a MLB-best 24-10 record in day games, that's somewhat mitigated by the fact this game is being played indoors. Also, with their recent winning ways, it's easy to forget that the Mets have been a terrible road team all season. Yesterday's loss dropped them to 21-33 away from Citi Field. Bartolo Colon had an 0-7 TSR his previous seven starts before winning last Monday (against league-worst Miami) and despite six daytime wins this year, his ERA in those starts is 4.03.