Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Detroit Tigers with Justin Verlander over the hapless Boston Red Sox and Henry Owens.
Yes, I realize Verlander isn't having quite the season he (or the Tigers) wished he'd had to this point, but these are the Red Sox, this game is in Detroit, and Boston really sucks on the road.
Owens was decent in his MLB debut against the Yankees last week, but took the loss with a 5.40 ERA to boot. Now he has to come to Detroit and face an veteran like Justin Verlander who has had some recent success against Boston in his career.
Take the Tigers on the money line over the Red Sox as your free play of the day.
2* DETROIT
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Yankees over the Blue Jays.
The lead in the East is now down to 2 1/2 games, as Toronto has taken the first pair of this three game set that concludes this afternoon in the Bronx.
The Jays have won 7 straight now, and have won 6 of the 8 series meetings this year against the Yankees.
Since Toronto has not swept a series of at least 3 games against New York since 2003, and for the Yankees, that was their first series loss now since the early part of July!
I am going to take the Yanks to avoid the sweep with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound opposing Marco Estrada.
With yesterday's shutout loss, the Yankees have only come up with 4 runs in their last 4 games. Look for them to snap out of their funk today and get just enough for them to avoid the ugly sweep in their home park.
Yanks with the salvage win.
2* N.Y. YANKEES
Scott Delane
Siding with the Angels here, and I'm listing both scheduled starters, as I like Jered Weaver over Miguel Gonzalez.
The Halos' ace right-hander is expected to return from the disabled list for the first time in 40 games, and I think we're going to see Weaver rejuvenated for his team.
This is a guy who who went 18-9 with a 3.58 ERA last year, but prior to going on the disabled list was 4-8 with a 4.75 ERA. But after rehabbing, I think we'll see the same guy who thrives with a deceptive delivery and uses precise command.
He'll do better than Gonzalez, who is in after a 5-0 loss on Tuesday at Oakland, where he lasted just 5-1/3 innings. He's now lost two straight starts, after winning two in a row, and three of four. This one will be rough on him.
Take the Halos and list both.
1* ANGELS
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: N.Y. Mets (+160) at TAMPA BAY
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - The surprising New York Mets are in first place in the National League East, they've won seven of 10 and they're one of the hotter teams in the league. Yet because of the pitching matchup we're catching a big price. It's because of that pitching clash I like the Mets.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-facor is Bartolo Colon. While the veteran right-hander owns a 5.53 ERA since May 18, he has also delivered eight-inning, one-run starts twice in his last three outings. He knows how to pitch still, and today I think he will bring his variety of pitches to Tropicana Field.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - On the flipside, and the reason I'm listing pitchers, we're siding against Tampa Bay's Chris Archer, who is 3-6 with a 2.74 ERA in 13 home starts in 2015. Archer could struggle against a hard-hitting lineup that will be out to support its veteran hurler.
1* N.Y. METS
SPORTS WAGERS
HAMILTON -7½ over Winnipeg
The Bombers have as many wins as the Ticats but equals they are not. Seven weeks into the season and we’ve learned enough about these teams to know that Winnipeg has been mostly outplayed in every game this year. After getting smoked by Edmonton two weeks ago 32-3, Winnipeg bounced back with a 10-point win over B.C. last week in Winnipeg. Their other victories were against Montreal (Als are 0-3 on the road) by two points, also in Winnipeg and in Saskatchewan against the now 0-7 Riders by foir points on opening day. In Saskatchewan, the Bombers were outgained by 108 yards. In their win over the Als, they were outgained by an almost identical 109 yards. In Winnipeg’s win over B.C. last week, they outgained the Lions by 10 yards. Statistically speaking, Winnipeg has lost just about every single battle. They have a 26-point loss and a 29-point loss. Defensively, the Bombers are giving up over 400 yards per game, including 129 per game on the ground. Last week was a response game against the Lions (we’ve all seen how bad B.C. is) after Winnipeg was destroyed the previous week. This week, Winnipeg is out to avenge a shellacking they took at home by these ‘Cats back in Week 2. The score of that game was 52-26 but 19 of those 26 points that Winnipeg scored all came in garbage time after Hamilton was leading 38-7.
We still haven’t seen the best out of Hamilton. They whacked the Argos last week in their first home game of the season but the score was more convincing than the performance. It’s not that the ‘Cats played poorly but they caught the Argos in a good spot and Toronto made several mistakes that allowed Hamilton some easy scores. In fact, Hamilton was outgained by 143 yards last week by the Argonauts. Don’t think for a second that Hamilton’s players and coaches were satisfied with last week’s result. They may have been satisfied with the win but not with the performance. Now the Tigercats will be home in back-to-back games for the first time this season. They’ve never lost at their new home and have now won eight straight at Tim Horton’s Field. This game is sold out. Winnipeg is much improved across the board, and that includes the Bombers' 2014 tendencies toward poor play on the road and shoddy pass protection. Still, this is not a team that matches up with Hamilton on the line of scrimmage or anywhere else for that matter. The case for the Bombers is mainly to “make-a-stand” against a team that has absolutely blown them out in so many games over the years including the first one this year. Those are indeed often decent spots, but don't invest in intangible advantages when the team in question has repeatedly demonstrated lousy intangibles, not to mention a really poor defense.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -102 over Los Angeles
Charlie Morton is an extreme groundball pitcher that is coming off perhaps his best game this year in Cincinnati, where he held the Reds to five hits and zero runs in seven full innings. Morton does bring risk but no more risk than his mound opponent here. Furthermore, the Pirates are at home, they’re playing very good ball and they have all the momentum on their side.
The Dodgers acquired SP Alex Wood, SP Mat Latos, 1B Michael Morse, RP Jim Johnson, RP Luis Avilan, 2B Jose Peraza and SP Bronson Arroyo as part of the a three-way trade with the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves on Thursday, July 30. The two big pieces for the Dodgers are Wood and Latos, who immediately moved into the L.A. rotation behind Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke. Wood struggled in July as noted by a 4.91 ERA in five starts and there are other concerns too. Both his velocity and strikeout rates are down this year, and his 4.85 ERA over his last five starts seems to suggest caution. Wood has an alarming 27% line-drive rate since July 1 and his first pitch strike rate has dropped considerably to 56% over that same span. Wood was whacked by Philadelphia in his Dodgers debut. His 1.42 WHIP and oppBA of .288 are far below league average. Wood signed a 1-year deal with the Braves last March for a mere 520,000. That’s far below market value and he’s not a free agent next season. His first year of arbitration eligibility is in 2017 therefore, it’s a little curious that the Braves moved him. Lefties with good contracts that have had success (3.10 ERA over 86 MLB appearances) are scarce. Every team would love one. Perhaps the Braves knew something that the Dodgers don’t or saw something in Wood that caused great concern. Regardless, it makes one wonder, no? The Pirates defeated Clayton Kershaw and Mat Latos in the first two games of this series and cannot be a pooch at home to Alex Wood and the Dodgers in this series finale. Wrong side favored.
CLEVELAND -1½ +136 over Minnesota
The balls are exploding this weekend at Progressive Field and if that continues today, expect the Indians to cross the plate far more often than the Twins. Cleveland scored nine times on Friday and 17 times yesterday. They’ve belted out 33 hits over those two games and have a great chance again to put up another crooked number against Phil Hughes. Some things make sense while others do not and Hughes’ 10-7 record with a 4.14 ERA makes none. Here’s a guy with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 35%/25%/41%. He has a mere 83 K’s in 141 frames to go along with a low 5% swing and miss rate. His impeccable control counts for something but when this park is giving up hits and runs like it is now, Hughes’ profile cannot withstand it.
The Twins are sinking faster than Donald Trump’s likeability. Minnesota is 5-15 over their past 20 games with a team batting average of .194. The Twinkies pitching staff has given up nine runs or more in four straight games so not only will they be working with a weak starter here but the relief staff will be hiding in a corner praying their name isn’t called.
Cory Kluber is almost always a solid play at home where he has held foes to a .637 OPS in 2015. The Twins offense has been steadily sinking into the land of solidly second-division (.663 OPS last 20G), and Kluber has excellent numbers against Minnesota batters (strikeout-laden .600 OPS allowed). There’s nothing more to say about this game other than the Indians have a huge edge in every single area while getting rid of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn may just turn out to be the best moves this franchise has made in a long while. “Looking pretty out there Swish”. “That’s a pretty uniform you have on Swish”. Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out. Indians have a better vibe about them the past few games and we like it.
Baltimore +111 over L.A. ANGELS
We don’t like Miguel Gonzalez one bit. He’s a guy that wins games but his skills leave plenty to be desired. However, Gonzalez is pitching better right now than he has all season with a 10% swing and miss rate over his last 10 games, not to mention a respectable 4.17 xERA. Furthermore, Gonzalez catches the Angels struggling with a BA of just .239 over their last 20 games. Should this one come down to the bullpens, we still like the Orioles chances, but let’s forget all of that because this one is all about fading Jared Weaver.
Weaver is back in the rotation because the Halos are playing him 18M a season, otherwise they would have left him down in the minors where he belongs (we’re not sure if they are even allowed to according to his contract and we don’t care enough to look it up). In his last rehab start at High-A Inland Empire (that’s A-ball folks, not Triple A) Weaver was tagged for two jacks. Overall, Weaver issued four walks and struck out 7 over 9.1 innings covering two starts at Inland Empire. Weaver struggled to tune of a 6.58 ERA in four June starts before hitting the DL with a hip issue. The writing on the wall is finally catching up to him. Weaver’s ERA jump is reflective of his increasing xERA downside. With below-average skills now, his downside is even worse than that mediocre 1st half. Avoidance of disaster is his only redeemable skill, and his 1st half disaster % reveals cracks there too. Weaver’s fastball tops off at 83 mph. That was before his bum hip. There are no radar gun records at Inland Empire that we know of but we can’t imagine that Weaver will be stronger or better after being off for two months. If we rip up this ticket, so be it but we must play value and fading Jered Weaver has to be about as good as that value gets.
Michael Alexander
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -135
Miller has a 3.14 ERA during his winless streak, giving up two runs or less nine times while going 0-7 since his last victory. Miller is 2-0 in three starts against the Marlins this season, falling one out shy of a no-hitter en route to a two-hit shutout on May 17 in Miami – his last victory. He surrendered two runs on four hits in seven innings Tuesday against San Francisco, leaving with the lead before the Braves’ bullpen lost the game one inning later. Miami starter Hand made three starts earlier this season, but gave up six runs on six hits in two-thirds of an inning June 8 at Toronto, sending him to the bullpen for his next 10 appearances. Hand, is 5-19 with a 4.58 ERA in 35 career starts.
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez struggled against NL West teams Arizona and Colorado in his last two outings, although he managed to earn win No. 13 Monday despite surrendering four runs and 11 hits over 6.2 innings in an 8-7 road triumph over the Rockies. That followed him getting reached for a season-high 12 hits and seven runs in losing to the D’backs on July 29 in Seattle. "He's done that time and time again for us, when we've needed a big win, particularly when he's come off a tough start," Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon told MLB's official website. "He's more determined than ever." Hernandez can become the AL's first 14-game winner when the Seattle Mariners ace takes on the Texas Rangers in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday at Safeco Field.
The Rangers appeared to be slipping out of the playoff race following an embarrassing 21-5 blowout loss to the New York Yankees. However, the Rangers have righted the ship with EIGHT wins in their last 10 games and can capture their third straight series win with a victory on Sunday. Texas dropped 21 of 31 after climbing six games over .500 on June 19, a skid that was punctuated by that July 28 rout by the Yankees. The Rangers rallied for a four-game split in that series and Saturday’s 11-3 win was highlighted by EIGHT runs in the 11th inning to best the Mariners, 11-3! Texas trails Houston by 4 1/2 games in the American League West, which is its smallest deficit since June 27. Texas also sits just three games out of the mad wild card race.
Colby Lewis (12-4, 4.68) get the nod for Texas and how many realize he goes for win No. 13 on Sunday? He’s won four consecutive starts while often backed by strong run support. That was the case in his last outing, when he allowed SEVEN runs and three HRs in six innings during Monday's 12-9 decision over Houston. However, Lewis is 8-1 over his past 12 starts (Rangers are 8-4) and has won four straight on the road while posting a 2.48 ERA. “King Felix” goes for win No. 14 but Texas has had plenty of success in the past against him, as Hernandez is 14-21 (by far his most losses to one opponent) with a 3.92 ERA in 44 career starts (Seattle is just 17-27).
However, Hernandez has fared pretty well within the division in 2015, going 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 starts (Seattle is 7-3). He has a 1.98 ERA in winning each of his two starts against the Rangers this year, including a 3-1 decision at Safeco Field on April 18, when he struck out 12 in seven innings while yielding a run and two hits. Let me also note that Texas’ 11th-inning explosion last night, helped the Rangers end a SIX-game losing streak to the Mariners. “King Felix” to the rescue.
Dave Price
Oakland A's +107
I'll gladly back the Oakland A's and Chris Bassitt as home underdogs to the Houston Astros today. Bassitt is one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball this season. He has posted a 2.64 ERA and 1.090 WHIP over 47 2/3 innings, including a 2.43 ERA and 1.027 WHIP over 37 innings as a starter. He has been at his best at home with a 2.19 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in four home starts. Mike Fiers pitched OK for the Brewers before getting traded to Houston. Fiers sports a 3.89 ERA and 1.356 WHIP over 21 starts. His move to the AL will certainly hurt his numbers before the season is over as he's just an average starter in this league at best. The Astros are 113-233 in their last 346 road games. The Astros are 1-9 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
ASA
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Cincinnati Reds +124
Neither Cincinnati nor Arizona has been very productive on offense in recent games but the Reds have to be thrilled with the recent results from Anthony DeSclafani. After some early season ups-and-downs DeSclafani has turned a corner with mostly great recent results, allowing three or fewer runs in eight of his last 10 starts including beating several quality teams. Arizona hopes to find out what they have in Patrick Corbin who looked like a future star in 2013 before missing over a full season due to surgery. Corbin has been limited to fewer than 90 pitches in all six of his starts this season and while his strikeout numbers are respectable he has allowed a great deal of hits and home runs in a small sample so far. The Reds have won four of the last five games vs. left-handed starters and Cincinnati pitching has gone 12 straight games without allowing more than five runs and the bullpen has shown improvement after posting rough early season numbers. Arizona is still a losing team at home this season and the Reds have out-hit and out-scored the Diamondbacks so far in this series despite the split. Arizona has been the NL’s most strikeout-prone team in the second half of the season and DeSclafani appears to have more potential for a deep strong outing.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -157
The Chicago Cubs are currently playing their best baseball of the season. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to get to 61-48 on the season and in a wild-card spot. I look for them to cap off the 4-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants today due to the edge they have on the mound.
Jake Arrieta has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past two seasons. He has gone 12-6 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 22 starts this season with 152 K's in 147 2/3 innings. Arrieta is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against San Francisco.
Jake Peavy is far past his prime and cannot go deep into games anymore. Peavy is 2-4 with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA in four road starts. He is only averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing.
The Giants are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 0-5 in Peavy's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Cubs are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 6-1 in Arrieta's last 7 starts.
Brandon Lee
Atlanta Braves -129
Atlanta is worth a look here as a relatively small home favorite given the advantage they have on the mound. The Braves will be starting Shelby Miller, who owns a 2.44 ERA in 22 starts and a 1.97 ERA in 10 starts at home. The Marlins give the ball to Brad Hand, who owns a 4.59 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in 4 starts, including a 9.52 ERA and 1.940 WHIP in two outings on the road. Hand is also just 1-3 with a 4.43 ERA in 4 career starts against the Braves, while Miller is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA in 5 career starts against Miami.
Jimmy Boyd
White Sox/Royals Under 8
I believe we are getting some great value with a high total set for Sunday's series finale between AL Central rivals Kansas City and Chicago.The two teams combined for 13 runs in the Royals' 7-6 win on Saturday, but keep in mind they combined for just 5 on Friday.
The key here is the starting pitching matchup, which I think is going to turn into a pitcher's duel. The White Sox will send out Jose Quintana, who has a sensational 1.69 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Kansas City will counter with Danny Duffy, who has a 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in his last 3 starts, 2 of which he's allowed 1 earned or less. Duffy has also pitched extremely well in his last 2 starts against the White Sox, giving up just 1 earned run in 13 1/3 innings of work.
UNDER is 33-15 in Quintana's last 48 starts when listed as an underdog of +100 to +150 and 11 in his last 12 starts when working on 5 or 6 days of rest. UNDER is also 15-5 in Duffy's last 20 starts in the 2nd half of the season.