Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Wichita State at St. Louis
The Shockers head to St. Louis today to face a Billikens team that is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. St. Louis is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Billikens favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2)

Game 517-518: Wichita State at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 70.565; St. Louis 75.234
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2)

Game 519-520: Cornell at Notre Dame (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 38.286; Notre Dame 69.293
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 31
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 25
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-25)

Game 521-522: Loyola-Chicago at Mississippi State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 51.835; Mississippi State 55.106
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+8)

Game 523-524: North Carolina at UAB (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 68.560; UAB 60.772
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 8
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-6 1/2)

Game 525-526: NC-Wilmington at East Carolina (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 45.539; East Carolina 65.701
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 20
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 11
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-11)

Game 527-528: Oregon State at DePaul (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 56.761; DePaul 60.812
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 4
Vegas Line: DePaul by 2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-2)

Game 529-530: Providence vs. Kentucky (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 65.935; Kentucky 67.913
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 6
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+6)

Game 531-532: Washington State vs. St. Joseph's (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 58.025; St. Joseph's 63.926
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 6
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-3 1/2)

Game 533-534: Butler vs. LSU (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 60.843; LSU 66.423
Dunkel Line: LSU by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LSU by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-3 1/2)

Game 535-536: Purdue vs. Siena (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 65.302; Siena 47.670
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-11 1/2)

Game 537-538: Oklahoma State vs. Memphis (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 73.950; Memphis 65.534
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-5)

Game 549-550: CS-Fullerton vs. College of Charleston (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 47.482; College of Charleston 52.738
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 3
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (-3)

Game 551-552: Miami (FL) vs. Arizona State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 59.572; Arizona State 64.701
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 5
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+6 1/2)

Game 553-554: George Washington vs. Creighton (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 62.240; Creighton 68.379
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 6
Vegas Line: Creighton by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (+8 1/2)

Game 557-558: Columbia at Elon (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 51.669; Elon 56.781
Dunkel Line: Elon by 5
Vegas Line: Elon by 6
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (+6)

Game 561-562: Southern Utah at Portland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 37.561; Portland 58.488
Dunkel Line: Portland by 21
Vegas Line: Portland by 19
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-19)

Game 563-564: South Dakota State at Stanford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 51.650; Stanford 69.801
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 18
Vegas Line: Stanford by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-14 1/2)

Game 569-570: VCU at Belmont (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 69.595; Belmont 63.919
Dunkel Line: VCU by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-2 1/2)

Game 571-572: Fairleigh Dickinson at Seton Hall (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairleigh Dickinson 37.058; Seton Hall 62.736
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 22
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-22)

NBA

Portland at LA Lakers
The Trail Blazers hit the road tonight in LA looking to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Portland is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Trail Blazers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3)

Game 501-502: Denver at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.994; Toronto 120.608
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 1 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 503-504: Indiana at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.384; LA Clippers 127.040
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 505-506: Philadelphia at Detroit (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 111.903; Detroit 116.409
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 4 1/2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 8 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+8 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Golden State at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 119.899; Sacramento 114.106
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 4; 199
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-4); Under

Game 509-510: Charlotte at Miami (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.992; Miami 130.064
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 14; 211
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 511-512: Minnesota at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 118.457; Oklahoma City 129.628
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 11; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-8 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: New Orleans at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.556; New York 116.453
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+1); Over

Game 515-516: Portland at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 122.402; LA Lakers 117.400
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 5; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3; 207
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3); Under

NHL

Detroit at Ottawa
The Red Wings visit Ottawa today where the Senators are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Detroit is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100)

Game 51-52: Vancouver at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.914; Carolina 10.422
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-125); Under

Game 53-54: Detroit at Ottawa (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.930; Ottawa 10.422
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Over

Game 55-56: Edmonton at Dallas (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.336; Dallas 12.809
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-170); Over

Wunderdog

Jacksonville at Cleveland
Pick: Over 40

This one looks like a defensive game in Cleveland, right? Ahhh, no. The general public thinks so, which is why this total is low, but let's take a closer look. Jacksonville is bad on defense, ranked 18th against the pass and 29th versus the run. And they are giving up points: 27, 27, 42, 24, 35, 24, 37 and 45 in eight of their last nine games. As a result, the Jags are on a 5-2 run OVER the total, 4-1 OVER in their last five road games. QB Chad Henne is a significant upgrade over Blaine Gabbert, and has thrown for 239 and 255 yards the last two games. He faces a Cleveland defense that hasn't had a sack in two games. And, this defense has allowed a whopping 16 touchdown passes in their past six games. The last place Browns have been giving up points as well, 27, 41, 18, 23, 31, 31 and 24 the last seven games. Cleveland is on a 5-2 run OVER the total, and the OVER is 4-1 in the Browns last five against the AFC. Go with the OVER.

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CLEVELAND (-7) 23 Jacksonville 14FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After starting the season 0-8, the Jaguars have gained some momentum recently and have now won two of their last three games. In last week’s 13-6 win in Houston they played good defense as they held the Texans to 218 total yards at 3.8 yppl and played a turnover free game on offense to get the victory. They are still worst in the league with terrible adjusted yppl stats across the board on the season but have shown improvement the past three games. This week they travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, fresh off of a 11-27 loss to the Steelers at home, their second consecutive divisional loss. The Browns will go back to QB Brandon Weeden, who has been horrible this year (6 TD’s and 7 interceptions with a 51.5 completion percentage). With some weapons at his disposal (Josh Gordon had 14 receptions for 237 yards last week) he’ll face a Jaguars pass defense that has allowed 244 yards at 7.1 yps to teams that average 233 yards at 6.4 yps and he’ll have some opportunities in this game to make plays. The Browns qualify in a 651-479-41 situation and my model favors them (-7.7) slightly as well. I don’t have much of an opinion on this one, but based on the situation, I’ll lean with Cleveland minus the points.
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NY JETS (-2) 22 Miami 16FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dolphins come into this game off of a tough 16-20 loss to the Panthers in a game that they led 16-3 in the second quarter. They couldn’t hold off Carolina on their last drive of the game as the Panthers converted a 4th and 10 from their own 20 yard line, and eventually a 1 yard touchdown pass from Cam Newton with 43 seconds left after a 12 play drive sealed the deal. After giving up a big lead and losing the game the way they did, that loss would have to be a bit deflating for a Miami team that had hoped to pull to 6-5 and in good position in the Wild Card race. It didn’t happen and the loss has now dropped them to 5-6 as they travel to face the Jets, who are also 5-6 and fighting for a Wild Card spot. With their 3-19 loss last week to the Ravens in Baltimore, the Jets have now dropped two straight since coming off their bye, and have been outscored 17-56. Both games were on the road, where the Jets have played much worse (1-5 away and 4-1 at home with victories over the Patriots and the Saints). Meanwhile the Dolphins have a similar home/away split, playing much worse on the road this year (2-3 away, 0-3 in their last 3). Match-up projections show the Jets winning the rushing battle as they sport the best run defense in the league (allowing 73 yards at 3.0 ypr to teams that gain 109 yards at 4.1 ypr on average) and face a Dolphins running attack that is not very good (averaging 86 yards at 4.2 ypr against teams that allow 112 yards at 4.4 ypr). I have situations that go both ways in this game but my model likes the Jets in this spot (-6.3). As a result, I like the Jets minus the short number.
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INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) 27 Tennessee 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With a late Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass to Kendall Wright the Titans pulled one out last week in Oakland 23-19 and coupled with a loss by the Colts in Arizona (11-40), the Titans are only two games back of Indy. They can cut that deficit to one game if they can pull off the upset in Indianapolis this week. Since Jake Locker went out three weeks ago and Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over full time the Titans offense has played well. OC Loggains has done a good job of adjusting the offense to suit Fitzpatrick’s skills, moving to more of a no-huddle scheme. The big knock on Ryan Fitzpatrick entering this season was his gunslinger mentality and my metrics show an adjusted turnover rate of 5.44%. Previous results may have been a product of the systems that he played within to a certain degree as he has played much better the past few games since the offensive changes were made as the focus has been on shorter crossing routes and less risk. On the other side the Colts are a team that has been trending down since beating the Broncos five weeks ago and are only 2-2 in their last four games since losing Reggie Wayne, being outscored by an average of 19.0 – 32.3. Over that time, they have been blown out twice and have two narrow three point victories where they had to overcome large deficits to win. This is a big game for both teams and the Colts do have some technical support on their side in this game. They qualify in a 122-64-7 situation and tend to bounce back after losses as Andrew Luck is 8-0 SU and ATS off a loss so far in his career. My model only favors the Colts by -.7 but based on the spot for the Colts at home I will lean their way.
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MINNESOTA (-1) 29 Chicago 24FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago comes into this game off of a 21-42 loss to the Rams in St. Louis in a game where they were destroyed in the run game (261 yards at 10.0 ypr for the Rams to 80 yards at 3.1 ypr for Chicago). The Bears have been really bad against the run this season (allowing 146 yards at 5.0 ypr to teams that average 109 yards at 4.2 ypr) and will be facing one of the best running backs in the history of the NFL this week in Adrian Peterson. In the Vikings 26-26 tie in Green Bay last week they really got their running game going as they gained 232 yards at 5.4 ypr and on the season they have now averaged 123 yards at 4.8 ypr against teams that allow 112 yards at 4.3 ypr. With all of the injuries the Bears have had to deal with in their front seven, it’s no surprise that they have struggled this season, and I expect them to have a difficult time trying to contain the Vikings rushing attack. The Bears advantage in this game is their ability to pass the ball (averaging 265 yards at 6.8 yps against teams that allow 245 yards at 6.4 yps) against a poor Vikings pass defense that has been limited by injuries this year and have allowed 282 yards at 6.6 yps against teams that gain 252 yards at 6.5 yps on average. There should be lots of points scored with both offenses having match-up advantages against the opposing defense and while I won’t be playing it, I do lean towards the Over 48 in this game. The Bears qualify in a good 153-88-11 situation but my model favors the Vikings here (-2.9) and as a result I’ll pass on the game but lean slightly with the Vikings minus the short number.
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Tampa Bay (+7.5) 15 CAROLINA 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucs come into this game on a three game win streak (nearly four in a row as they lost to the Seahawks in Seattle the game prior 24-27 after leading 21-0) and have been playing much better football recently. As I have been saying, this is a talented team defensively and now with QB Mike Glennon at the helm making good decisions, this is a team that can be competitive. The big difference in their four game improvement can be directed attributed to turnover differential as they have gone from -1 five weeks ago to +10 heading into this game (tied for third in the league). Last week against Detroit they were outgained 243 yards at 5.4 yppl to 390 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Lions but were +5 in turnover margin and ended up winning 24-21. This week they face the Panthers (who they are tied with at +10 in turnover differential) as the Panthers attempt to keep their seven game win streak going. Carolina might be in a bit of a flat spot here as they are coming off a 20-16 win against the Dolphins where they trailed 3-16 in the first half before staging a second half comeback and more importantly, face the division leading Saints next week in a Sunday night football showdown. If the Panthers win this game and the Saints lose in Seattle on Monday night, that game will be for first place in the division. In a tough spot off of three close games and with a big showdown looming, the Panthers may not bring their best effort here while the Bucs should be fired up to make a statement about their own recent improvement. Five weeks ago the Panthers beat the Bucs easily 31-13 in Tampa in a Thursday night game and that may help the Bucs here from a motivational perspective as well. My model only favors the Panthers by (-5.6) but Carolina qualifies in a couple of good situations that are 277-169-14 and 135-67-5. With the situations and the model going different directions and with what appears to be a good spot for the Bucs, I’ll offer a lean to Tampa Bay plus the points.
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SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5) 25 St. Louis 16FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With a 42-21 home win against the Bears last week, the Rams have now won two consecutive games by an average score of 40-14.5. In fact, when we look back a bit further we see that after a poor 1-3 start, the Rams have gone 4-3 since (winning by an average score of 28.1 – 19.1) which includes a close 9-14 loss to the Seahawks that they had an opportunity to win at the end. St. Louis has focused on their run game and have played much better defense recently and still consider themselves a team on the rise with a shot at a Wild Card playoff opportunity. They will get a tougher test here against the 49ers, who played well in a 27-6 victory on Monday night in Washington. While their rushing game was shut down (79 yards at 2.6 ypr), Colin Kaepernick picked up the slack and played a very good game (228 yards at 8.8 yps). With WR Manningham getting acclimated into the offense and the arrival of Michael Crabtree this week, this offense has a trend line that appears to be going up. Defensively the 49ers have played well overall, holding opponents that average 354 yards at 5.5 yppl to 313 total yards at 4.9 yppl. The Rams are likely to regress back a bit in this game offensively as QB Kellen Clemens has some limitations that may get exploited here if the Rams have trouble running the ball (which I expect they will). San Francisco qualifies in a couple of good situations that are 277-169-14 and 122-67-7 and my model favors them by (-10.2). I do have some concern about the possibility of a look ahead for the 49ers in this game as they face Seattle at home next week and coupled with the fact that that Rams have played the 49ers tough outside of their 11-35 loss earlier this season (0-1-1 in 2012), I’ll lean slightly with the 49ers.
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WASHINGTON (+1) 23 NY Giants 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants enter this game off of a bad 21-24 home loss to the Cowboys that they really needed in order to have any continued realistic hopes of a playoff run this season. The loss dropped them to 4-7 on the season and after four consecutive wins, their bubble has been burst. I don’t believe that they can be that excited about playing the Redskins this week in Washington after such a difficult loss, but the Redskins are in a similar situation. After getting dominated by the 49ers on Monday night in a 6-27 loss, the Redskins have dropped three in a row and have fallen to 3-8 on the season and essentially out of the playoff picture. The Redskins season numbers show a team that is about average overall, but their numbers are a bit deceiving because they have accumulated some garbage yards in the second half of games to appear more competitive than they really were. They have averaged 9.5 first half points this season (#27 ranking) and as I expected last week, if they were trailing against a team with a good defense like the 49ers, they would find it very difficult to get back in the game or make it close. The Giants are another team that has deceiving raw stats as they have played backup QB’s in several of their wins (Minnesota, Philadelphia, Green Bay) and when playing teams with their current starting QB’s, they are 0-7 on the season (Pryor lost his job after the Giants game). This game is a toss-up to me as I don’t have any situations in play and my model favors the Giants by (-0.9). I’ll lean slightly to the Redskins plus the points.
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SEATTLE (-4.5) 28 New Orleans 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In a huge Monday night match-up that will likely determine the #1 seed in the NFC playoff race, the Saints travel to face the Seahawks in Seattle. New Orleans enters this game winners of their last three and off of a competitive 17-13 win in Atlanta last Thursday night. This should be a great game to watch as both teams do a lot well, with advanced stats in nearly every category that are very good. The Seahawks rushing game against the Saints rush defense is one match-up to watch (the Seahawks average 149 yards at 4.8 ypr against teams that allow 112 yards at 4.3 ypr and face a Saints rush defense that is allowing 112 at 4.9 ypr to teams that gain 105 yards at 4.3 ypr on average). Seattle also has a very effective passing game that should get better as WR Percy Harvin gets acclimated to the offense. The other match-up to watch is the Saints passing offense against the Seattle secondary (which has been the best in the league) but will be missing starting CB Brandon Browner and his backup Walter Thurmond. There is no doubt that Drew Brees will test their replacements and with the extra time to prepare, I expect that they will be well schemed to take advantage of the opportunity. The Seahawks have been deadly at home where they have not lost with Russell Wilson at the helm (13-0), including 5-0 this year where they have outscored opponents 32.4 - 15.4. The Saints are just 3-2 on the road this year, including a loss to the Jets. I have situations that go both ways in this game and my model favors the Seahawks in this spot (-4.4). It looks like the weather could favor the Seahawks as well with temperatures in the 30’s and the possibility of snow flurries. This game is really a toss-up as far as I am concerned but I will lean with the Seahawks minus the points at home.

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Jacksonville vs. ClevelandFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Last week saw Jacksonville pick up its second win in three games as they defeated Houston 13-6. Obviously, it was the defense that carried them, holding Houston to just 218 total yards for the game. Not only was that number a season best, it was a two-year best. At the same time, nobody is ever going to confuse this Jags offense w/ the '07 Patriots. Last week, they were held to 20 pts or less for the 10th time in 11 games. The lone exception was their first win of the season, 29-27 over Tennessee. Coming in as a TD underdog here w/ a total of 40 pts, the oddsmakers are obviously calling for another sub 20-point performance this week.
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Meanwhile, things are hardly rosy for the Browns. They came out of the bye at 4-5 SU and with realistic playoff aspirations. They've since dropped B2B division games to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, getting outscored 68-31 in the process. Now they must turn back to the much maligned Brandon Weeded at quarterback, he who has benched two different times this season! Quite simply, Weeden is terrible and does not deserve to be a starter in this league. Last week, he completed only 13 of 30 pass attempts against the Steelers as he came on in relief for the injured Jason Campbell.
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Jacksonville is 22-9 Under their last 31 AFC games. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 27-15 Under in all games the last three seasons. With few watching, this game stays Under.

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St. Louis vs. San FranciscoFORFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. LouisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With a convincing win over the Redskins on Monday night, the Niners are back. Or are they? An 11-0-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS mark in games at Candlestick off an away win certainly suggests they are. Our concern, though, is their play of late on the field where they are just 4-7 In The Stats this season. The gold diggers are also laying a boatload of points to the best underdog coach in the NFL, Jeff Fisher (89-58-1 ATS in his career). Frisco’s shaky 1-6 ATS record after allowing 6 or fewer points makes this a tenuous spot at best. St. Louie’s 9-0 ATS mark in games after posting 35 or more points swings us solidly to the dog. The bottom line is we’re not convinced Frisco is back. You know what to do. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Nick Parsons

Denver vs. Kansas City
Pick: Under

There are a number of strong situational O/U trends which point to the "under" as being the prudent wager in this particular matchup:

The Broncos

Note that Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of three vs. divisional opponents this year and in eight of its last 13 in the same position over the last two.

The Chiefs

Having already seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six in front of the home town crowd this year, note that the Chiefs have seen it fall under the number in 15 of their last 22 at Arrowhead overall.

In both games they've been the underdog this year the total has fallen under the number, and in 19 of 28 in the same position over the last two.

The Bottom Line

Two weeks ago these teams played in Denver and the Broncos walked away with the 27-17 victory, handing the Chiefs their first loss of the year at the time.

Kansas City is coming off an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance last week vs. the Chargers, clearly getting caught looking ahead to this game.

But here's a chance for redemption.

Denver is also coming off a disheartening loss, 34-31 in OT in New England last week.

Take note that five of these teams last six in the series have indeed stayed below the posted number and consider a second look at the "under" in Broncos/Chiefs Part II.

Ben Burns

Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
Pick: Over

Both teams are off low-scoring games last time out. That's helped in keeping this O/U line relatively low, beneath the important number of 41.

In fact, only the Jets/Dolphins total is lower. I believe the small number is offering some value.

Even after last week's "defensive battle," Jacksonville games are still averaging 42.4 points. On the road, that average climbs to 46.4.

Meanwhile, Browns' games are averaging 42.6 points, 40.8 here at Cleveland.

Prior to last week, the Jags had seen three straight games - and seven of eight - finish with a minimum of 40 combined points.

Prior to combining with Pittsburgh for 38 points last week, the Browns had seen six straight games produce a minimum of 40 points. Those six games had combined scores of 61, 42, 40, 44, 48 and 61.

With a pair of teams now both playing out the string, I won't be surprised if this one proves a little higher-scoring than expected.

Bill Biles

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Atlanta Falcons +3½

The Falcons played well last week vs their division rivals in the Saints. I think they show up in this one and extra rest and play for some pride and win this game. Matt Ryan comes back into form and has a big game.

Brandon Shively

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8

Carolina routed the Bucs 24-13 earlier this season on a Thursday night game. Carolina only won the 'ITS' in that game though by 27 yards. Tampa Bay had to settle for a few field goals instead of touchdowns, and Carolina was more efficient as they scored 4 touchdowns and didn't have to kick a field goal until late in the 4th quarter.

I like Tampa Bay and the momentum they have going now that they have won 3 straight games, including a 24-21 SU win @ Detroit last week as a +7.5 point underdog. The Bucs have now covered 4 straight games and I feel that HC Schiano has these guys believing again they can win. It took a while for quarterback Mike Glennon to get settled in, but he has found his groove completing 62% of his passes with a 13TD/ 4 INT mark.

The Panther's as most know might be the hottest team in the NFL, having now won 7 straight games. The last two games though, they have been outyarded and that is a red flag for me and one we will take advantage of today. On the season, Carolina is only averaging 321 yards per game and 24 more yards than their opponent. With a Huge Marquee game with the Saints next week, that has serious implications on who will win the division, I will take this as a look-ahead game for the Panthers and one that they will be lucky to escape with a win.

Looking back at this Carolina win streak, their first 4 games they scored 30+ points in each game. The next 3 wins though they only scored 10,20, and 24 points. (17 ppg)

TakeAways: Both teams are +10 in Turnover differential.

Trends:

Carolina is 2-13 ATS (0-7 ATS L7) all time playing against teams with revenge off B2B win
Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in revenge games when playing off a SU underdog win.

Steve Janus

Washington Redskins +2

Things have gone about as bad as they possibly could for the Redskins in 2013. While it’s to the point where you have to start worrying about Washington throwing in the towel, I don’t think they will lay down against a division rival. Playing spoiler can sometimes be a huge motivational factor and their would be some satisfaction with ruining the Giants playoff hopes.

There’s no question that New York has been playing better, but I think people might be overreacting a little. Each of the Giants victories during their 4-game winning streak came against a backup quarterback. Three of those four wins also came at home. As bad as the Redskins have been, I don’t know that they should be an underdog at home in this one. Home underdogs after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 92-48 (65.7%) ATS in the month of December since 1983. Adding to this is the fact that the Giants are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a losing home record.

The team who has been favored in this series hasn’t lived up to the hype. The underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Another thing to mention is that while road teams who have struggled to run the football have had a lot of success, Washington is 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games in the second half of the season vs teams who average 90 or less yards/game on the ground.

Dave Price

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7½

Tampa Bay is better than its record might lead you to believe. The Bucs have won three in a row, and they have four losses of three points or less. Two of these close losses came to the Saints and Seahawks - arguably the two best teams in the NFL. Tampa Bay clearly hasn't quit on the season, and it will be hungry to avenge a 31-13 loss to Carolina in the season's first meeting. Because Carolina's win over Tampa Bay was so lopsided, the Panthers likely won't be able to keep themselves from looking ahead to next week's big showdown at New Orleans. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. Take the points.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego ChargersSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chargers come home off a big road division win over Kansas City last week. The are one of the more inconsistent teams in the NFL, employing on of the worst defenses, giving up 4.9 ypc and 7.9 ypa. However, their big play passing game, averaging 8.2 ypa. has made up for a lot of this. They take on a Cincinnati team coming off a bye and employing a very good defense, despite losing 2 key starters for the season (5.4 ypa 35% 3rd down). The Bengals have the better kicking game and commit fewer mistakes.

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Minnesota PkFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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n week two this season, the Vikings led 30-24 in Chicago very late in the game when Cutler threw a 16-yard TD pass with ten seconds remaining in the game to pull out a 31-30 win. While this game has been forgotten by many, the result makes this game the Vikings' "Super Bowl." The Bears had high hopes for the season but their lost last week to the Rams was crippling. While they still have a good chance to win the NFC North, they were in a better position last week and threw up a collective brick. The Vikings are relishing the role of spoiler and trying to get Peterson the rushing title. It's not even clear to us the Bears are passionate about making the playoffs and then visiting the Saints or Seahawks.
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Chicago is 1-12 ATS on the road vs a divisional opponent when they have non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks, with their only cover on a pick-six in overtime.
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In addition, Chicago is 0-6 ATS (-11.42 ppg) since 2009 the week after a road loss in which Matt Forte had at least 5 receptions, losing every game straight up.
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The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (+7.58 ppg) at home the week after a game in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average and a monster 10-0 ATS the line is within three of pick and they are hosting a team that is better than two games below 500 and has benefitted from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game covering by an average of 15.1 ppg. Minnesota should prevail.

Tony George

Dolphins vs. Jets
Play: Under 40½

Really hard to make a case for either team, and equally you can say this is a coin flip game. The value in the number lies with the Jets because they are favored at home under the fall number of 3. They have beaten the Patriots and and the Saints in the Meadowlands as well this season, so the potential is there for NY to win this game. The quarterback play out of NY has been a huge learning curve for Geno Smith, and last week he look deplorable. NY has lost 2 straight to the Bills and ravens.

As I look at this game, the most glaring stat is the play of the offense's, and if you look at the last 3 games neither of these teams offense has done much of anything. The average yards by NY is 275 yards a game, and Miami 296 yards a game. The strength of both teams is defense, and against struggling offenses, in a rivalry type game. The Under is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings and the Dolphins are 6-1 on Unders against AFC east opponents. Look for a game dominated by defense today.