Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 11

Detroit at Alabama
The Crimson Tide look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 3-12-3 ATS in its last 18 road games. Alabama is the pick (-13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tide favored by 16 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-13 1/2)

Game 841-842: Southern Illinois at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 48.333; Western Michigan 55.350
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 7; 138
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 8 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+8 1/2); Over

Game 843-844: Santa Clara at Washington State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 58.129; Washington State 60.936
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 3; 137
Vegas Line: Washington State by 6 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+6 1/2); Under

Game 845-846: New Mexico State at UTEP (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.149; UTEP 57.398
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 3; 138
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 5; 135
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+5); Over

Game 847-848: Detroit at Alabama (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 54.548; Alabama 71.085
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 16 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Alabama by 13 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-13 1/2); Under

Game 849-850: UC-Davis at Hawaii (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 43.116; Hawaii 52.203
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 9; 142
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 11; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (+11); Under

Game 851-852: Jacksonville State at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 45.999; Tulane 62.889
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 17; 144
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 853-854: NC-Greensboro at Florida State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 43.866; Florida State 67.348
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 23 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Florida State by 26; 137
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+26); Under

Game 855-856: UC-Riverside at Montana State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 48.169; Montana State 52.757
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 4 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Montana State by 6; 128
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (+6); Over

Game 857-858: Murray State at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 61.489; Memphis 70.327
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 9; 144
Vegas Line: Memphis by 11; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (+11); Over

Game 859-860: Eastern Washington at CS-Fullerton (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 54.137; CS-Fullerton 54.468
Dunkel Line: Even; 138
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 3; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+3); Under

Game 861-862: Iona at Marshall (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 66.192; Marshall 66.362
Dunkel Line: Even; 148
Vegas Line: Marshall by 2; 152
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+2); Under

Game 871-872: Coppin State at Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coppin State 44.547; Illinois 72.240
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 27 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Illinois by 18 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-18 1/2); Over

Carlo Campanella

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Houston Texans +3

The Bengals are 7-5 and have had a productive season from rookie QB Andy Dalton, however, he's struggled against Playoff caliber teams. Dalton has played in 4 games against teams that are going to be playing in the postseason and he's a winless 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS against San Francisco, Baltimore and Pittsburgh (twice). In fact, the Bengals lost those four games by a combined score of 56 to 103 With numbers like that, we must take the points with a 9-3 Houston squad that's leading the AFC South. Expect QB Dalton to struggle against a Texans defense holding opponents to only 15.7 points per game and held 6 STRAIGHT foes to 14 points or less!

John Ryan

Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -3½

5* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they host the Chicago bears set to start at 4:15 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by four or more points and put themselves into excellent playoff position. Statistically, the Denver defense is not that strong, but since Tebow took over the offense, the defense has played at a very high level. They simply know and firmly believe that if they keep their team in the game that Tebow will find a way to win the game. Making matters worse is that Chicago is just 8-27 ATS losing 21.7 units per on unit wagered in road games in December games since 1992.With the Bears now missing running back Forte with a MCL knee injury I do not see how Chicago will score enough points to win this game. Take Denver

Hollywood Sports

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts (0-12) were a 20.5-point underdog last week at New England yet were very competitive in their 31-24 loss. Quarterback Dan Orlovksy was very effective behind center by completing 30 of 37 passes for 353 yards. Indianapolis does not want to finish the season winless so they should remain competitive down the stretch -- and this team has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog of more than 10 points. The Ravens are 6-0 at home this season -- and the Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning home record. Baltimore (9-3) may be due for a flat performance after grinding out a 24-10 win on the road against division rival Cleveland. The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Baltimore is averaging only 23.7 PPG over their last three games which makes Indy's 16.5 points or so that they are getting very attractive. Take all those points with Indianapolis.

Brad Diamond

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers +3

Looking at the non-public barometer this weekend in the NFL, I would say the Panthers would check in as a play against unit. So, with the Falcons ripping this squad over the last three years, scoring 93 points in total, one would have to make a good case to play against inconsistent Carolina?? The Panthers are 4-8 SU this season with no wins against winning football teams. Atlanta plays after a horrific loss to Houston down in Texas (+2) 17-10, a game that did not enlist QB Schaub for Houston as the headliner. The Texans had only 337 yards of offense and just 70 yards rushing. The Falcons are 7-5 with a losing ticket counter of 5-6-1 ATS in Vegas this season. Atlanta is 2-4 ATS on the road in 2011. After a difficult three game road swing, the Panthers show Sunday at home bringing a 4-2 ATS mark in Carolina this campaign. No doubt the Falcons have own this series of late ATS, but the home team is on a commanding 6-1 ATS skip. Oh, Carolina is 9-1 ATS after scoring 35 or more in their last game. For a real hunch, the Panthers come clawing home with a big win on Sunday.

Spartan

Carolina Panthers +3

Lot of folks thought I was off my rocker last week when I went against the Falcons laying the short number at Houston but that turned out just fine. Well I'm going against them once again this sunday as they stay on the road at Carolina. The stubborn fact is this, the Falcons offenses labors very hard to put points on the board when they are playing away from their Georgia Dome. Cam Newton is clearly finding his way under center in Carolina and if he can continue to play smart and protect the ball I can easily see them sending Atlanta back home with a loss just like Houston did for us last week. I'd say we have a very live dog here with the home guys catching points. Take Carolina guys, I'm firmly convinced they are the right side. Cashed in nicely last week on the free release with Denver getting the outright at Minnesota, I predict this one will do likewise for us.

James Patrick Sports

Chiefs vs. Jets

If Mark Sanchez & Co. want to stay in this playoff chase, they’ve got to win some games and look like a playoff team in doing so. Maybe facing a losing team is just what they need, as they are (4-1) ATS last five against sub (.500). The Flyboys fighting for their playoff lives and Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is on New York Jets.

Sam Martin

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Last week we backed the Indianapolis Colts here as a huge underdog at New England (lost by 7 points as a huge 20-point road dog), and we'll come back with another ugly team that is simply getting way too many points. Kansas City has been ravaged by injuries this season but they are coming off a win against Chicago where they defense was superb, and we can't do anything but take the generous points against a bad NY Jets offense. Chiefs have allowed just 16 points combined over the last two weeks, and we're confident their defense can keep them within single-digits here this Sunday! 5* Play on Kansas City.

Marc Lawrence

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Oakland Raiders

One thing is for sure the Packers will stay unbeaten this week. With his connections, Tim Tebow has made sure of that. With Denver currently holding the tiebreaker in the AFC West, the Raiders will need some help to reclaim the division lead, though it’s unlikely the man upstairs will offer any even with Al Davis now in his ear. Nonetheless, Mike McCarthy is just 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS at home against an avenging opponent with a winning record and the Raiders are 9-2 SU and ATS with revenge versus a foe off back-to-back SU wins. And as amazing as it seems, the NFC and AFC’s top two teams – the Packers and the Patriots respectively – own the two worst defenses in the entire league. And speaking of the Pats, they’re the only team in NFL history (21 straight wins between 2003 & 2004) to win more consecutive games than the 18 straight the Pack has accumulated since December 26th of last season. And though a favorable remaining schedule (three home, one road game at KC) suggests that Green Bay runs the table and breaks New England’s record, we’ll step in front of Rodgers and company one more time and take the doubles with the desperate Raiders. Remember: God spelled backwards is ‘dog.’ We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

Matt Fargo

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Detroit Lions -10

After a great start to the season, the Lions are falling fast as they have dropped five of their last seven games but confidence should not be an issue. Detroit is still very involved in the Wild Card race and it was fortunate that the other four teams fighting for those playoff spots also lost last week. At 7-5, Detroit needs to make a push with this game being a must win and not only to avoid a sixth loss overall, but to avoid a sixth loss in the conference, which is one of the tiebreakers should it come down to that.

The Vikings are coming off a devastating loss to the Broncos last week as they were hit by the Tebow train as many teams have already. Minnesota is off to the worst start in franchise history and things are only getting worse. The offense took a hit with Adrian Peterson missing the last two games, and he remains questionable this week. Now the quarterback position is in disarray once again as Christian Ponder will sit out. Enter Joe Webb and his 60.9 career passer rating.

The Lions showed last week that they can hang around with the elite teams in the NFL but the problem is that they are incredibly undisciplined. They committed two costly personal fouls as well as three offensive interference penalties that cost them numerous yards and probable points. This is an issue that cannot be rectified overnight but lessons were learned and head coach Jim Schwartz called a private meeting with the team captains on the way home and things will be different this week.

The Vikings defense has been solid against the run this season but that is about it. They are allowing 252.2 ypg through the air which is 26th in the league and their 27.5 ppg allowed is second most in the NFL, ahead of only the lowly Colts. Even last season when the Vikings were 6-10, the defense allowed fewer than 300 total yards six times and this year have done so only once showing how much they have digressed. Detroit has put up over 400 yards of offense in three straight games and that continues this week.

An offense that should go nowhere with Webb and a defense with too many holes spells blowout and a much needed confidence boost for the Lions. Detroit has played the third toughest schedule in the NFL and finally catch a break here after a brutal stretch of games. The Vikings are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record with a negative scoring differential of nearly two touchdowns per game. The Lions meanwhile have covered four straight against losing teams.

Stephen Nover

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Tennessee Titans +3.5

This is a dangerous flat spot for the Saints. Following their bye, the Saints destroyed the Giants at home on a Monday night and then took care of the Lions also at home this past Sunday night.

But now the Saints have to travel for the first time in four weeks and play on grass for the first time since mid-October when they lost at Tampa Bay.

New Orleans ranks 27th in total defense and its offense isn't nearly as explosive away from its home dome, especially on a grass field. Drew Brees' completion percentage drops from 68 to 63 on the road and his passing yardage falls from 341 to 290.

In the Louisiana Superdome, the Saints have averaged 39.8 points in six home contests. In their last five road games, however, the Saints are averaging 23.4 points during regulation. New Orleans has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road contests.

The Titans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings against NFC competition. The Titans already have covered against the three other NFC South Division teams this year, beating Carolina and Tampa Bay straight-up by a combined 33 points.

Tennessee's defense doesn't get much fanfare, but the Titans are allowing just 19.1 points per game, which is sixth-best in the NFL. The Titans are respectable versus the pass and can play ball control with a ground attack that is picking up steam.

Chris Johnson was the best running back in football two years ago. After a very slow start, caused in large part by a protracted holdout, he has come on strong rushing for 343 yards the past two weeks.

If the Titans pull the upset, they have a real shot at making the playoffs. It's something they are well aware of. The spot and opponent match up well for the underdog to get the money if not win the game outright.

Bobby Conn

Kansas City Chiefs vs. NY Jets
Play: NY Jets -9

I went against the Chiefs last week when they played the Bears and it was my only loss on Sunday, not because of anything special Kansas City did but how puke the Chicago offense was. The Jets offense isn't great, but they will be good enough to score points against this Kansas City defense. The Chiefs on the other hand are coming off a 10 point performance in Chicago, and 7 of those points came on an end of the half hail mary. I think the Jets win this one big, so I'm comfortable laying the large number for a small amount.

Steve Merril

Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Oakland Raiders +11½

Oakland’s 3-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a crashing halt last week in Miami. The Raiders lost that game 34-14 after generating just 304 yards of total offense. But we’re willing to forgive that poor effort by Oakland as they were playing an early start game on the East Coast against the red hot Dolphins who have out-scored their last five opponents by a combined score of 139-54. The Raiders should be much more competitive this week even though they are now facing the undefeated Packers on their home field.

The Raiders are a solid 4-2 SU on the road this season and an even more impressive 5-1 ATS in those games. Oakland has been effective running the football this season averaging 4.6 yards per rush. And that could be the Raiders best defensive weapon in this game, especially since Green Bay’s defense is allowing opponents to rush for 4.9 yards per carry. While the Raiders run defense has not been strong this season, they’ll be facing a Packers team that only averages 3.8 yards per rush. Green Bay is strictly a passing offense, but Oakland’s secondary has been their defensive strength this season. The Raiders are allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and they’ve held their last seven opponents to 239 passing yards or less.

The huge offensive numbers put-up by Green Bay has done a good job of hiding what has been an inconsistent defense. The Packers are 16th in points allowed (22) and they are next to last in the NFL in total yards allowed (398) and passing yards allowed (292). This will be the seventh time this season in which Green Bay is a double digit favorite; the Packers are just 3-3 ATS in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed 409 yards or more in six of their last seven games, and since we expect Oakland to run with success, we see some tremendous value in taking the big points with a rushing underdog.

SPORTS WAGERS

CAROLINA +3 over Atlanta

If you watch or listen to all the NFL shows on ESPN, NBC, FOX and CBS, then perhaps you’ve been brainwashed into thinking that the Atlanta Falcons are a good team that is playoff bound. These so-called experts are rarely right in anything they predict. If you’ve watched the Falcons this season, you know they are more fluff than stuff. They’re 7-5 but have beaten Philly, Seattle, Carolina, Detroit, Indy, Tennessee and Minnesota. There’s a great chance none of those teams are going to make the playoffs and Atlanta was very fortunate to win at least two of those games. The game against Carolina at Turner Field saw the Panthers carry a lead into the fourth quarter but Carolina turned the ball over five times in that game to Atlanta’s none and when you lose the turnover battle 5-0, winning is near impossible. The Panthers outgained their host by a 368-325 count. The Panthers have dropped three straight to their division mate and should be able to avenge this recent trend with their explosive offense against a visitor that scares nobody and that is falsely perceived as a playoff-caliber team. Play: Carolina +3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

MIAMI -3 over Philadelphia

Every team needs a leader and when the Eagles signed Micahel Vick they figured he was the guy. He’s not, he’s never been and he never will be. Despite being out, Vick is not vocal and he’s nowhere to be seen. By contrast, Peyton Manning can be seen on the sidelines every game and Jay Cutler has been quoted at least 15 times since he got knocked out. It’s no wonder the Eagles are a mess. Philadelphia has now lost four of five, displaying very little desire during the tailspin. Conversely, the Dolphins have won four of five and continue to ascend after their 0-7 start. Miami ’s solid defensive play has been a large contributor while the quarterback play of Matt Moore has been nothing short of extraordinary. Moore has thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception over past five and is among the top quarterbacks in passer rating over that span. With these two headed in opposite directions, expect a reverse of nature on this day as the fish get to feast on the birds. This is a cheap lay. Play: Miami –3 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

ARIZONA +4 over San Francisco

San Francisco could be caught napping here after locking up the NFC West last week and with a Monday night home date against the Steelers on deck. Such a snooze could prove costly as the Cardinals are quietly putting together a respectable second half, having won four of last five and doing it in much the same way as the Niners do, with good defense and few offensive mistakes. Arizona has allowed just five touchdowns in its past five games and with playmakers like stud WR Larry Fitzergerald, emerging RB Beanie Wells, QB Kevin Kolb’s second game back from injury and kick return extraordinaire Patrick Peterson, an upset is a distinct possibility. San Fran has been going to good for too long and that intensity level is unsustainable over the entire 16-game schedule. This is the day the 49ers relax. Play: Arizona +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

THE Rest with no wagers

Indianapolis +16½ over BALTIMORE

Colts have nothing to lose, except a 13th straight game and that should find them loose and tossing the ball around as they did in New England last week when amassing a season-high 338 passing yards. This is a hefty spot for a Baltimore team that has exceeded 23 points just once in past five games. The last time the Ravens were favored by 16½? Never. Play Indianapolis +16½ (No bets).

WASHINGTON +8½ over New England

Washington’s pass rush is dangerous enough to keep this one within range against a New England squad that has defensive issues, despite its solid record. Rex Grossman remains at quarterback for the ‘Skins and while he can be careless, he’s not afraid to throw it downfield against this leaky secondary. Down the stretch these teams headed for the playoffs are not as interested in going all out for four quarters as they are at the start of the year when injuries have time to heal. New England is a vulnerable team because of aforementioned poor defense. Play: Washington +8½ (No bets).

TENNESSEE +4 over New Orleans

The Saints have been featured on prime time for two weeks and those games have a way of sticking in the minds of betters. They bludgeoned the Giants two weeks ago and buried the Lions last week. Why then are they just a 4-point choice here when the books could’ve made them –6 and not sway a single bet. It’s always a danger sign when everyone is on one team and the Saints are that team this week. Saints are nasty when playing in their own building but have dropped two of past three away, including one to the woeful Rams. If Saints arrive here overconfident after consecutive home wins, they’ll be in for a difficult afternoon against this scrappy Tennessee squad that is fighting for a post-season berth. Looks like a trap so proceed with caution. Play: Tennessee +4 (No bets).

N.Y. JETS –10½ over Kansas City

Jets have won consecutive games and may have to win out to qualify for this year’s post-season. They couldn’t ask for a more accommodating visitor. The Chiefs have scored 35 combined points over their past five games and without skilled offensive players, their chances of competing are limited. Line keeps moving upwards but one really has top wonder how the Chiefs are going to score anything. Play: N.Y. Jets –10½ (No bets).

Tampa Bay –2 over JACKSONVILLE

This is a process of elimination game, as the Jags aren’t playable and that leaves the Buccaneers. For the Jags, the coach got the axe and the owner bailed but between the lines it was the same two-week old litter box. How bad are the Jags? Well, the fact that we’re forced to play against them when the Creamsicles are getting more dysfunctional as the season winds down. Shut down corner Aqib Talib has a hamstring injury and DL Brian Price was literally told to go home during the Carolina game by head coach Raheem Morris, who admitted the move in the post game presser with a "F-yeah". LeGarrette Blount threw Josh Johnson under the bus when the rushing game faltered last week and reportedly Blount was part of a group that severely beat a man who was too scared to press charges. Oh yeah, and the offense is worse and the defense gives up more points, yet the Jags are so bad that we can’t play them unless an abundance of points are being offered. Play: Tampa Bay –2 (No bets).

Houston +3 over TEXAS

After a surprising 6-2 start to the season, the Bengals have dropped three of four as their schedule toughened and they’ve been simply outclassed. Cincinnati ’s run defense has been struggling after strong start and that won’t bode well against Houston ’s powerful ground game. Play: Houston +3 (No bets).

Minnesota +10 over DETROIT

Vikings are beat up but this opponent is in a fragile state of its own after a tumultuous season that has Detroit facing public and league scrutiny over its undisciplined style of play. That type of distraction may be just enough for Minnesota to avenge an earlier 3-point loss in a game they bled by 23 points. It looks like Christian Ponder is a no go and that’s why this line is so high but it’s still inflated after Vikes scored 30 and still lost to the Tebows. Play: Minnesota +10½ (No bets).

Chicago +3½ over DENVER

Broncos’ stock is at its peak while Chicago ’s continues to spiral. But don’t wise investors recommend selling high, buying low? The Tim Tebow saga has been nothing short of miraculous. However, this is first time that Denver is ask to spot points under Tebow’s guidance and that’s a commodity worth shorting. Play: Chicago +3½ (No bets).

GREEN BAY –11 over Oakland

The Raiders are too banged up to field a competent team and after flying through three time zones with this makeshift line-up, to play in the cool confines of Lambeau, against the undefeated Packers, we wouldn’t be surprised if some of the Oakland players refuse to get off the airplane. Play: Green Bay –11 (No bets).

SAN DIEGO –7 over Buffalo

Difficult to back Bills with their cluster injury problem and inept defense but the Chargers warrant less respect than a substitute teacher. Dare we say it but San Diego is not quite out of division race and with their customary strong Decembers and something to potentially play for, we’ll cautiously lean that way. Play San Diego –7 (No bets).

DALLAS –3½ over N.Y. Giants

After playing at New England, at San Fran, hosting rival Eagles, a Monday nighter in New Orleans and then coming up a tad short in an exhausting effort against the undefeated Packers, the Giants may be out of gas. The Cowboys are a screwy bunch but a win here gives them a stranglehold on division and given the circumstances, we’ll count on them to come through. Play: Dallas –3½ (No bets).