Bryan Power
Buffalo Bills @ San Diego Chargers
PICK: San Diego Chargers -7.5
Things have gotten really bad in Buffalo. You'd figure that franchise that hasn't made the playoffs in over a decade might have gotten used to this already, but this year started out w/ so much promise at 3-0 including a remarkable comeback to beat division rival New England. However, injuries have decimated this team. RB Fred Jackson is lost for the season as is C Wood. But those are only TWO of THIRTEEN players the team has lost for the year overall! The Bills have now lost five in a row following last week's 23-17 home defeat at the hands of Tennessee and now must make the cross-country flight to play a San Diego team that regained a bit of its lost confidence with a dominating road win over lowly Jacksonville on Monday night. Prior to the loss to the Titans, Buffalo had lost three times by 16 or more points in a four-game stretch. The Bills have not won in San Diego since 1981. With many of his key weapons lost to injury or not 100%, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been awful. He has only one 300 yd passing day all season and the offense has averaged only 13.4 PPG the L5 games.
Tony George
Tennessee +4
Can the Saints lose as hot as they are? Perhaps. They give it up on the ground, and their road record is just not all that good folks. I have no doubts the Saints offense is solid as a rock, but with RB Johnson is top form and rushing for 150 ypg the last 3 games, and the Titans under the radar screen and still in the hunt, this is a tough spot for New Orleans. The Titans defense vastly under rated and with the ability to run the ball, that keeps the Saints offense off the field. Anyone remember what Matt Hasselbeck did to the Saints defense last year int he playoffs at Seattle? Tough Spot, I like the home dog.
Nelly
Oakland + over Green Bay
The Packers clinched the NFC North title at 12-0 last week but it was one of the closest scares the perfect run has had. Aaron Rodgers rarely needs to make big fourth quarter plays but he did so last week to set up the winning kick. Green Bay gets every team's best shot but the injuries are adding up on a defense that continues to surrender big numbers on a weekly basis. The Raiders gave away their lead in the AFC West with an ugly loss in Miami, making this a tough second straight road game with long travel. Oakland's running game should have success in this match-up and the December conditions could favor the road team, now getting double-digits in an overreaction after one ugly loss for a team that has been very competitive with several quality teams.
TEDDY COVERS
Colts @ Ravens
PICK: Over 41
Indy’s stop unit is as bad as it gets at the NFL level right now. The Colts have already fired their defensive coordinator. They rank dead last in the NFL in interceptions, notching only five picks for the entire season. They rank #27 in the NFL in recovered fumbles, with only five of those in 2011. To say that the entire defense has been besieged with injuries is something of an understatement. Head coach Jim Caldwell placed three more defensive contributors on IR this past week and they’ve run out of NFL caliber replacements. No team in the NFL has allowed more than the 358 points that Indy has allowed so far this year, and their 34 points per game allowed on the highway is also dead last in the league.
Baltimore ran for 290 yards on 55 carries against the Browns last week. Don’t expect a ‘run early and often’ philosophy again this week. Head coach John Harbaugh: ““If you are going to beat the elite teams, you need to be able to pass the ball.” The lousy weather conditions in Cleveland last week dictated a conservative game plan. Sunday’s forecast for Baltimore? Sunny, no wind, temperatures in the 40’s – ideal conditions for ‘airing it out’ on offense, getting their passing game some confidence heading towards the postseason.
Indy’s offense is certainly a factor here. The change to Dan Orlavsky at quarterback instead of Curtis Painter made a legitimate difference last Sunday. Orlavsky went 30-37 for 353 yards with a 113.7 QB rating on the road at New England, showing a propensity to throw the ball downfield; not the same ‘dink and dunk’ approach that we saw from Painter over the past ten weeks. Expect both offenses to put some TD’s on the board, sending this game up and over the total. Take the Over.
TJ Pemberton
Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -3
The Broncos have been underdogs in 7 straight games since Tim Tebow took over as the team’s starting quarterback and, incredibly, they’ve won 6 of those 7 games outright. This week Tebow and the Broncos host an in trouble Bears team. The Bears will be without RB Matt Forte, QB Jay Cutler and only put up 3 points last week against the Chiefs. Tim Tebow is a unique and special kind of player. I am 100% on the Tim Tebow train until he loses me money, which he has not yet done! The Broncos come into Week 14 tied at the top of the AFC West and could take over the spot solely with a win and a Raiders lose. Lay the 3 points as Mr. Tim Tebow and the rolling Broncos get it done once again!
WUNDERDOG
Buffalo at San Diego
Pick: Buffalo +7.5
The Buffalo Bills looked like a playoff team early in the season as they got off to a 4-1 start. They have been reduced by injuries and the once 4-1 team has dropped five straight. As a result of that, and an impressive prime time win for San Diego last week, we get line value on Buffalo here. The Chargers remain overrated. They just broke a 6-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. So one good game means they are now worthy of a spread over a touchdown? This is a team that continues to dissappoint, and what was once a lot of talent that couldn't win despite having the #1 offense and #1 defense last year is no longer putting up those numbers. Their defense now ranks #12 and their offense is also middle of the pack. The offense has slipped because their QB Phillip Rivers has become a turnover machine. I need to see more than one win by this team to say they are back. After a few huge losses, the Bills are beginning to find their way. They lost their last two vs two winning teams by a total of 10 points, so this line certainly is suspect here. The Chargers haven't covered 7 points or more this season in three tries. The Bills are highly competitive vs. losing teams at 34-15-1 ATS in their last 50 playing against them.
Grab the points and play on Buffalo in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Indianapolis Colts
We successfully rode the winless Colts to an ATS victory last week and will look to do the same here. The fact that Indianapolis is still winless on the season continues to lead to rising lines against them. Though this week's line is not as lofty as last week's number, it's still above the two TD mark and is offering exceptional value to the big dog Colts. The Ravens are off of a huge win at Cleveland last week. However, even in going 5-2 in their last 7 games, the 14 point margin of victory in last week's win was the most lopsided win Baltimore has had in their last seven games. That said, this is a huge number to cover this week versus a Colts team that will be a little extra "scrappy" after battling back against the Patriots last week. Note that Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS this season (and 14-9 ATS long-term) when they are installed as double digit underdogs. Also, with last week's solid cover, the Colts are now 8-3 ATS the last three seasons combined when they are facing a winning team in the second half of the season. As for the Ravens, there is no real incentive to run up the score here and they are only 1-3 ATS when facing teams with a losing record this season. Off of a divisional win, and with a tough road trip to San Diego on deck, it would not surprise if the Ravens overlook the winless Colts. In fact, Baltimore is on a long-term 9-15 ATS run against AFC South opponents and the Ravens are just 4-6 ATS the last three seasons when off of a win against a divisional opponent. Based on all of the above, it's certainly worth considering a small play on Indianapolis plus the big points on Sunday afternoon.
Tony George
New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans +4
Can the Saints lose as hot as they are? Perhaps. They give it up on the ground, and their road record is just not all that good folks. I have no doubts the Saints offense is solid as a rock, but with RB Johnson is top form and rushing for 150 ypg the last 3 games, and the Titans under the radar screen and still in teh hunt, this is a tough spot for New Orleans. The Titans defense vastlky under rated and with the ability to run the ball, that keeps the Saints offense off the field. Anyone remember what Matt Hasselbeck did to the Saints defense last year int he playoffs at Seattle? Tough Spot, I like the home dog.
Tony Stoffo
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami Dolphins -3
Yeah Vick is coming back, and everyone is saying the Eagles are still a better team than the Dolphins - However I'm going with the team that really is trying and wants to win their games, and that's definitely Miami - On Thanksgiving they should have beaten the Cowboys in Dallas, and last week they crushed the Raiders. So let's lay the small number as the Dolphins winning ways continue here against a down and out Eagles squad.
David Chan
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs
I bet value where I see it and expect the Chiefs to keep this one close enough down the stretch, to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded in this contest.
The Jets won 34-19 over the Redskins last week; note though that they managed just 266 total yards on offense:
“We’re a team that just wants to win and get in the playoffs and see what happens,” coach Rex Ryan said. “Our goal is intact, even though it looked really bad a few weeks ago.”
It would be very easy to "overlook" the Chiefs here, who come into this game having not scored more than 10-points in their last five contests; note that New York faces the Eagles in Philadelphia next week (note that New York is 3-5 ATS its last eight when playing the roll of favorite).
Kansas City's defensive unit has had to shoulder the load since QB Matt Cassel went down, and its been red-hot of late, registering seven sacks and picking off three passes from Caleb Hanie, to help in beating the Bears 10-3 at Soldier field last week.
The Chiefs still have a mathematical shot at the postseason:
“We’re coming on at the right time,” coach Todd Haley said. “If we can figure out a way to win - pretty, ugly or indifferent - we have a chance," (note that the Chiefs are 13-9 ATS their last 22 on the road).
Expect the Chiefs' defense to continue in its dominant run, and for Tyler Palko to do just enough (note that KC RB Thomas Jones comes in with a chip on his shoulder, facing his former team for the first time); I think this is too many points to be giving up to an under the radar Kansas City team; what about you?
Steve Janus
Chargers -7
The Chargers always seem to play their best football when it matters late in the season. They still have a shot at winning the AFC West, but they more than likely have to win out for that to happen. They come in off a 38-14 win over Jacksonville on Monday Night Football. Philip Rivers has all his receiving weapons at his disposal, and I look for the Chargers to roll over a deflated Buffalo team.
While the Bills come in with an identical 5-7 record, their chances of making the playoffs were all but crushed with their 17-23 loss to the Titans last week. They have now lost five straight since opening the season 5-2, and are going to want no part of a hungry Chargers team. The motivation just won't be there for the players.
Offensively this team is really struggling to score without running back Fred Jackson, who is out for the season. Buffalo is averaging just 14 points over their last four games, getting held under 10 points in two of their last three on the road. Defensively this team is not that good, and its been even worse with the offense struggling to stay on the field.
San Diego is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in December, 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
EZWINNERS
Cincinnati Bengals -3
Houston has won a franchise record six straight games, but making it seven appears to be a very tough task. The Texans rookie quarterback TJ Yates will be making his first road start against a very good Cincinnati defense. Houston as relied heavily on the running game the last game and a half with Yates under center, but the Bengals are equipped to shut the ground game down forcing Yates to put the ball in the air. The Bengals are without their shutdown cornerback Leon Hall who is out with an achilles injury, but the guy that would be covering, Houston's All-Pro receiver Andre Johnson is also out. The Houston defense has played well, but the Bengals have the weapons to put some points on the board and their rookie quarterback Andy Dalton is playing like a seasoned veteran. The lack of offensive diversity catches up with Houston in this game. The Texans are just 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven games as an underdog. Lay the points.
James Patrick Sports
Chiefs vs. Jets 1:00
If Mark Sanchez & Co. want to stay in this playoff chase, they’ve got to win some games and look like a playoff team in doing so. Maybe facing a losing team is just what they need, as they are (4-1) ATS last five against sub (.500). The Flyboys fighting for their playoff lives and Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is on New York Jets.
Jimmy Moore
Texans +3
Have to like the Texans here even with their QB situation. Houston's defense has been outstanding and they will have the edge against the Bengals who have been very stoppable by the better defenses in the league. Cincy being favored in this game is an overreaction to the Houston QB situation, there are 10 other players on their offense and the QB doesn't play defense or special teams. Take the points with the better team in this one.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos
Might as well keep backing Tebow and his 6-1 SU and ATS record as a starter, even though he is favored for the first time in Week 14. The Bears are 8-27 ATS in December road games and are not only without starting QB Jay Cuter, but now RB Matt Forte. Their absence was felt in last week's 10-3 loss to Kansas City as the offense under Caleb Hanie failed to get in the end zone. Look for the Broncos to post their biggest margin of victory under Tebow's direction.