Rob Vinciletti
Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Indianapolis Colts +17
The Colts qualify in a solid system here today that plays on winless double digit dogs in week 8 or later of the season. The Ravens are a terrible 1-15 ats with revenge if off back to back wins and covers. Last week the Colts rallied to cover the 20 point spread as they were down 31-3 late to the Patriots. They have Dan Orlovsky at the helm now replacing the Pick prone Curtis Painter, who is clearly not even a worthy back up. Orlovsky may not carve up the Ravens defense like he did to the Patriots last week. However he should keep them in the game and cover the nearly 17 point spread here. The Ravens could be a little flat off the 2 big wins and could be looking ahead to next week. Take a shot with the big number here.
Sean Murphy
Buffalo Bills @ San Diego Chargers
PICK: San Diego Chargers -7
We've picked our spots wisely fading the Bills lately, successfully going against them in two of the last four weeks (at Dallas and at home against Tennessee). We'll go back to the well here in Week 14, as they face a tough cross-country matchup against the Chargers in San Diego.
Buffalo isn't moving the football with any consistency, nor is it making stops when it needs to on defense right now. Needless to say, that's a recipe for disaster, and no surprise it's led to five consecutive Bills' losses.
This is a banged-up team that is having an awfully tough time finding something to hang its hat on right now, and as I've said all along, I'm not sure it's a particularly well-coached squad under the guidance of Chan Gailey.
Ryan Fitzpatrick was already without his number one security blanket in RB Fred Jackson, but now he'll have to make do without TE Scott Chandler as well. While the Bills have done a better job of getting C.J. Spiller and Brad Smith involved in the offense, it's a case of too little, too late.
The Chargers were written off by most following their 16-13 home loss to the Broncos two weeks ago. With the pressure off, they responded by crushing the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Monday night. Now they have another very winnable game, and if they can get it done, they might be able to start thinking playoffs again (provided they get a little help).
San Diego remains a talented football team, it's just a question of whether they come to play in any given week. They've proven to be a streaky team in the past, and this season's been no exception. Remember, they did reel off three consecutive wins back in late September and into October.
I won't be surprised if we see one of their better efforts of the season on Sunday, as they can certainly handle a matchup with a Bills squad that is essentially playing out the string. After this week, all bets are off, but this is an opportune spot to back an underachieving team.
Chip Chirimbes
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Oakland Raiders +12½
We are coming off winners in both games these two teams played last Sunday posting the Giants as a Megabucks winner over the 'Pack' and the Dolphins as a 'Money Game' winner over the Raiders. Green Bay may be undefeated but they are feeling the pressure (Put on by themselves) to go unbeaten. Oakland traveled across the country the play in Miami and got caught with that west coast east cost time thing that effects so many teams. Look for Oakland to try and control the ball on the ground and for Carson Palmer to be another step closer to fitting into the system he has had to learn on a crash course. The points come into play.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Oakland Raiders +12½
The Packers haven't won by more than 12 points in any of their last 3 games and 5 of their last 6. They'll have a difficult time running away from an Oakland team that will be hungry after laying an egg in Miami. Playing on underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more, in December games, has produced a 99-55 ATS record the last 28 years. Teams in this situation have covered the spread 64.2% of the time while only losing by an average of 3.1 points. This system is 14-5 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. The Packers are just 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. We'll bet the Raiders.
Dave Price
1 Unit Kansas City Chiefs +11
The Chiefs, who have quietly covered the spread in 7 of their last 10, are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Kansas City defense has been playing very well. It held the Steelers to 290 yards in a 13-9 loss in Week 12, and it held the Bears to 181 yards in last week's 10-3 victory. Look for the KC defense to play well enough to keep this one within the number. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* Detroit Lions -9½
I question Minnesota's motivation heading into this one. The Vikings are 2-10 on the season, going 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall to eliminate themselves from playoff contention. While there's no guarantee the Vikings will even show up for this game, it's certain that the Detroit Lions will be highly motivated. Detroit is 7-5 on the season, sitting in a three-way tie with the Bears and Falcons for the two NFC wild card spots. If the season were to end today, the Lions would be the last man out. This team has been in a tough stretch of their own, but they have simply beaten themselves. I still believe the Lions are one of the best teams in football, and they will take out their frustration on the lowly Vikings in this one. Minnesota is likely going to be without starting quarterback Christian Ponder (hip, doubtful), and they could be without Adrian Peterson (ankle, questionable) for a third straight game. Detroit played right with Green Bay and New Orleans in their last two games, but they committed 11 penalties in each and cost themselves a chance to win. Detroit actually outgained both the Packers and Saints, and they have outgained each of their last five opponents. The focal point all week in practice will be to not beat themselves with stupid penalties, and I believe the Lions will play one of their cleanest games of the season Sunday, which will result in a double-digit blowout. Matthew Stafford is fifth in the league with 3,527 passing yards and fourth with 27 TD throws, and the Vikings have been vulnerable through the air with a depleted secondary. Minnesota is tied for 26th in the league in pass defense at 252.2 yards/game, also allowing an NFL-worst 24 passing touchdowns. Even if Peterson goes, he has rushed for a combined 109 yards in his last two games against Detroit. The Lions will be able to stack the line of scrimmage, making unproven backup quarterback Joe Webb try to beat them. The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record, while the Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The Vikings are 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC North foes. Take Detroit and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Washington Redskins +9
Prior to last week's 15-point loss to the Jets, which was a much closer game than the final score leads you to believe (Washington led in the 4th quarter), the Redskins hadn't lost by more than 8 points in any of their home games. Doing the math, we find that Washington is only losing by an average of 3.0 points at home this season.
This is the most points the Redskins have been catching all season and also the most points the Patriots have laid on the road. And frankly, this is too many points for a New England team that ranks dead last in the league in total defense with 412.1 yards allowed per game to be laying away from home.
Going back to 1992, the Redskins are a rock solid 58-38 ATS when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games in the second half of the season versus terrible defensive teams that allow 6 yards or more per play.
New England has the second-best passing attack in the league, but Washington is a reliable 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game, provided it is at least 8 games into the season.
Washington's defense has not allowed a 300-yard passer all season. Plus, Tom Brady struggled against Mike Shanahan's teams when the coach was in Denver. Brady went 1-5 against Shanahan's Broncos, completing just 56.5 percent of his passes and posting a 78.1 passer rating. We'll take the points.
Jack Jones
49ers/Cardinals UNDER 39½
The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are primed for a defensive battle Sunday. San Francisco already clinched the division, but they'll be looking to get the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Arizona is trying to stay alive for a wild card spot while playing their best football of the season.
The 49ers are 10-2 on the season. They have been winning behind one of the best defenses in the league, and a solid running game that controls the time of possession and keeps the chains moving. San Francisco ranks 4th in the NFL in total defense (303.4 yards/game), including 1st in run defense (71.8 yards/game). They are also 1st in scoring defense (13.4 points/game).
San Francisco ranks 7th in rushing offense (130.0 yards/game). However, they are just 24th in total offense (315.3 yards/game) due to having the 28th-ranked passing offense (185.3 yards/game). They are barely outgaining opponents on the season because of this lackluster offense.
Arizona is 5-7 on the season, but they are 4-1 in their last 5 games thanks to big improvement defensively and a solid running game. The Cardinals have rushed for a combined 371 yards in their last two contests, but they will not have nearly as much success on the ground against this top-ranked 49er run defense. Arizona is only giving up 17.2 points/game in this five-game stretch.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. The 49ers and Cardinals have combined to score 36 or less points in four of those contests. That includes a 23-7 home victory by the 49ers in their first meeting of the season on November 20th. San Francisco held Arizona to just 229 total yards in the win.
Arizona is a perfect 6-0 to the UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. The UNDER is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games overall. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in 49ers last 11 games as a road favorite, including 5-0 in their last 5 as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The UNDER is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 vs. NFC West opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
Eric Williams
Falcons vs. Panthers
Play: Over 47
I’m seriously pissed that the Atlanta Falcons (7-5 SU, 4-7-1 ATS, 3-9 O/U) didn’t show up at all in their dismal 17-10 road loss to the banged-up Texans in Week 13 as they cost me a pay day by not covering the spread as a 1-point road favorite in seeing their modest two-game SU winning streak snapped.
The Carolina Panthers (4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 O/U) are firing on all cylinders under gifted rookie quarterback Cam Newton and looked phenomenal in laying an emphatic 38-19 smackdown on the reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers while cashing in as a 1-point home favorite with room to spare.
Having said that, I really like the Falcons and Panthers to play Over the high O/U Total in this one. These two NFC South division rivals can both score the ball and average a combined 44.6 points per game on offense while allowing a combined 47.3 per game defensively.
The Over is 7-2-1 ATS in Carolina’s L//10 games against NFC teams and 5-2-1 in Atlanta’s L.8 games as a road favorite.
Last but not least, the Over is 6-0 in Carolina’s L/6 games after they score at least 30 points in their previous game.
Jim Feist
Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS) runs a ball control offense. QB Tyler Palko (1 TD, 6 INTs) is running the offense. The Chiefs, who led the NFL in rushing last season, are ranked seventh this season with contributions from Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster and Battle. They come off a surprising 10-3 win at Chicago. The defense took advantage of 3 Caleb Hanie turnovers as the Bears were 0-for-11 on third down. The Chiefs had a home game with the Steelers, losing 13-9 with only 252 total yards. The Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog. The streaky Jets (7-5 SU/5-7 ATS) now are on one of their hot streaks, winning two big wins in a row, 28-24 over Buffalo (hanging on for dear life) and Sunday’s 34-19 comeback win at Washington. They trailed 16-13 in the fourth quarter before erupting. Still, they haven’t been impressive, getting just 266 total yards against the Redskins (101 rushing). They are back to being a run-first team. QB Mark Sanchez (19 TDs, 11 INTs) leads a ball control, conservative offense. The Jets opened the season as a passing offense. Ryan made the change back to ground-and-pound seven weeks ago. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Big numbers like this are difficult for ground control teams to cover and in the NFL this is just too many points for the Jets to cover. They have been playing well enough to win, but not blow out a team. Take the points here in a ground controlled ballgame.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -½ 130 over San Jose
Big scheduling advantage for the Blackhawks here, as they’ve been off since Thursday while San Jose played last night in St. Louis and is playing its third game in four days. The current form also heavily favors the Blackhawks, as they’ve won five of their last seven and have picked up points in six of those games. The Sharkies lost 1-0 last night. They have two wins over their last seven and the pair of wins have come against Dallas and Montreal, two teams going nowhere fast. These two have met once this season back on November 23 in San Jose. The Sharks won 1-0 but were clearly the second best team on the ice, as the Blackhawks dominated play from start to finish. It’s payback time here in what has to be considered a strong wager. Play this one with confidence. Play: Chicago -½ 130 (Risking 2 units).
Triple Threat Sports
Oakland (+) over Green Bay
One thing, and one thing only, keeping this from being a star rated play, and that is the fact that the Raiders are playing their fourth road game in five weeks. Aside from that, Packers off back to back big games, were rather fortunate to win last week, and Oakland has been an excellent road team this year, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS away. They are not the typical "warm weather" team either, as many of their best players come from cold weather locales. Aside from the travel, there is some concern about the Oakland special teams as if Janikowski does not kick the ball out of the endzone Randall Cobb is a skilled returner, but "SeaBas" should be able to neutralize him. Points are very tantalizing here...and even a (very) small money line play could make some sense.
JR O'Donnell
Marshall -2
The O'ster goes big time with the members play as we know it is hard to find a weakness in the Marshall lineup. They check in @ 5-2 with a "2" point loss to 7-1 Ohio, and a "6' point loss in the Carrier Dome to the Power Ful Cuse. They return the freshman of the year in C USA, DeAndre Kane, some good experience players off a rock solid "22' win team, and just an excellent recruiting class to provide added depth. Factor in the outstanding coaching of Tom Herrion (avg 20+ wins/yr), and you have the recipe for a winner. They will wear Iona out, and the Gaels are a very good team, but the Thundering Herd is @ home where even rival WVU has trouble beating them.
Bob Balfe
Cowboys -4.5 over Giants
This line keeps on moving to try to bait Giants backers, but much like Philadelphia I think the coaching staff has lost this team and its time for a change. The Cowboys are getting healthy while the Giants are not. The Giants will be without their starting center today and lack the running game this year to win this division. The Cowboys had some key injuries and the backups now have made a name for themselves. This team has so many offensive weapons and at home should win this crucial NFL East Battle. Take the Cowboys
Scott Delaney
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville
On the heels of yesterday's winner on Indiana over No. 1 Kentucky, my complimentary winner today will be on the Jackonsville Jaguars getting it done over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as I believe the wrong team is favored. The Buccaneers are laying a field goal in this game, so I want you buying the half point up in this game and taking +3-1/2 with the Jaguars in this game.
This Sunshine State battle features a pair of disapppointing teams on the year, and the fact we can get a value number in a game the home team can win very easily is a gift. After all, Jacksonville brings one of the most successful and physical defensive units into this game, ranking fifth overall.
Jacksonville has the fourth-best passing D, and 14th-ranked rushing stop unit. And you better believe the Jags will be out to avenge last week's game, which saw them allow 38 points in a 24-point loss to the San Diego Chargers. Interim coach Mel Tucker has to get the Jags to respond over these last few weeks of the campaign, if he expects the upper brass to take him seriously as the next coach of this franchise.
So by getting this defense fired up for this game, and counting on the NFL's leading rusher, Maruice Jones-Drew, to dictate the tempo with the running game, Tucker will have his scheme intact for the struggling Buccaneers, who have lost six straight since and four in a row on the road overall.
Take the points.
4♦ JACKSONVILLE