Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Miami Dolphins minus the points at home versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
Both teams enter play today at 4-8, but this is a tale of teams heading in opposite directions, as Philadelphia comes to South Beach having lost their last pair of games, and four of their last five straight up. While it is true the Birds will have Vick and Maclin back in their lineup, this is a team that was hammered in a heartless performance at Seattle in their last game two Thursdays ago.
Miami comes into this game with four wins in their last five games, and they very well go be on a 5-0 straight up run as they lost a tough one on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. The Dolphins have also covered their last six times on field, and QB Matt Moore is getting quite comfortable now that he has established both Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall as "go-to" weapons.
Look for the positive energy to stay with a Miami team that is closing the season strong, and look for the backsliding Birds of Philly to mail in another one.
Dolphins minus the points the play on Sunday.
4♦ MIAMI
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Bengals who should be well equipped to expose the Texans TJ Yates in this match up. Listen guys, we all saw what Yates did last Sunday against the Falcons. Admittingly, it was encouraging to see a young quarterback look so good in his first career start, but let's not get carried away. He's going to have his ups and downs, and I saw we see Yates comes crashing back down to Earth in this one.
Yates may have gotten it done against a good, but not great Falcons defense, which obviously underestimated the young signal caller, but Cincinnati is an elite defense. They not only ranks higher than Atlanta in overall defense, but also gets after the QB at a better clip (31 sacks vs. 23 sacks). Coming off an embarassing effort against the Steelers, I expect Cincy's stop unit to come out fired up in their return home this afternoon. Not a good place to be for a rookie QB.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans still boast the # 1 defense in the NFL, but their numbers show a defense that softens up on the road, allowing 18 ppg on 299 total yards. Still great numbers, but not a lockdown unit by any means. Cincy's offense has been struggling, but the Texans are allowing 4.4 ypc over their L3 games, which should open the door for Benson, who ran well against the Browns in his last home game. If Benson can at least keep the defense honest, then Dalton can take care of the rest.
Bottom line, it all comes down to Yates vs. this Bengals defense, and I give a solid edge to Cincinnati. I like Yates, followed him throughout his college career at North Carolina, but I'm not ready to annoint him the "next coming" yet either. Given some film and a highly motivated defense, the Bengals should be able to take advantage. All things considered, lay it with Cincinnati over Houston Sunday.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Matt Rivers
Free play winner for Sunday night is the underdog Giants to cover at Dallas.
Huge divisional implications in this game, as New York enters this game at 6-6 and riding a four-game losing streak. Dallas is a game ahead in the standings at 7-5, but they are coming off a blown loss in overtime at Arizona last week, and the Cowboys have proven to be an unreliable chalk of late. Dallas is just 2-6-1 against the spread when favored this season, and they have also dropped nine of their last twelve when favored at home dating back to last year.
The Giants prefer the underdog role that is for sure, as their underdog cover last week against the undfeated Green Bay Packers puts Tom Coughlin's team at a very lucrative 23-9 when catching points their last 32 games.
The last time New York lost five straight during a season came all the way back in 2004, Tom Coughlin's first year with the club. Have to grab the points in this one based on the Giants strong dog numbers, and the Cowboys weak favorite numbers.
4♦ N.Y. GIANTS
OC DOOLEY
Patriots/Redskins Under 47.5
There is actually a connection to yesterday’s lone Division I-A college football game as Army/Navy played on the Redskins home field. In the 121-year history of the annual rivalry, Army/Navy had never faced each other inside the nation’s capital, which gives us an UNUSUAL NFL handicapping setup today. According to information received at around 11:30 AM eastern time late this morning, the field conditions today in Washington are POOR enough for players on both sides being urged to be careful. It comes as no shock that today’s total is lofty since Tom Brady and company are in town, and the Patriots woeful defense is ranked dead-LAST in the league giving up on average well above 400 yards per contest. But one of the keys to this total surrounds the fact that Washington’s defense has NOT allowed an opposing quarterback to pass for more than 300 yards against them all season. In addition the nation’s capital is the only location where the Patriots franchise has NEVER recorded an outright victory. As for the Redskins attack starting tight end Fred Davis along with starting offensive tackle Trent Williams have both been SUSPENDED for the rest of the season after violating the league’s drug policy. Turning to the database here is an excellent 80-PERCENT SYSTEM (22-7 past five years with a total between 35’-and-42 points) that takes home teams like the Jets off a “double digit” margin of victory OVER the total, against an opponent who was just held to 14-or-less points on the scoreboard in the previous game. When off an outright road victory the past two years, the Jets are an impressive 8-1 OVER the number