Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 12,2010

Carlo Campanella

Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Cleveland Browns +1

The Browns (5-7) are one of only 4 NFL teams that have not allowed an opponent to score 30 points or more this season, and they've defeated some high powered offenses in New Orleans (30-17) and New England (34-14). That stingy defensive play should have no troubles against a Buffalo (2-10) team that's been held to 16 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Hard to back a Bills team who's two victories have come against Detroit (2-10) and Cincinnati (2-10), who combine for 4 total wins this season after 24 games. Take the points with a much more accomplished road Dog, as the Browns are 6-0 ATS when playing on a turf field.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Play: Cleveland Browns +1

Turnabout is fair play. Buffalo’s 5-0-1 ATS streak came to a screeching halt in Minnesota while Cleveland snapped a 3-game ATS skein with a straight up dog win in Miami. While we won’t vault the Brownies to a Newsletter Best Bet like we did last week, we certainly won’t look past them… especially when you consider that they’ve made the Bills their annual whipping boys. In the battle of division basement dwellers, the Browns have won and covered all three meetings since 2007 and twice as dogs on this field. Our database likes Cleveland’s chances for a four-bagger as the Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road in their expansion history off a straight up road dog win and 11-1 ATS versus less than .580 AFC East opposition. Even our NFL Coaches League supports the visitors as Browns HC Eric Mangini is 5-0 ATS as a road dog in the final four games of the season, while Bills head man Chan Gailey is 0-4 ATS versus non-division opponents in the season’s final four games. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Raiders @ Jaguars
PICK: Under 43

It was a relatively easy victory last week with the "under" in the Browns/Dolphins (23 total points scored); we're now on a stellar 8-2, (80%) "FREE PREMIUM" NFL run since the start of the season.

This time around we focus our attention to Jacksonville as the upstart Oakland Raiders (6-6 Road: 2-4) hit the road to take on the AFC South division leading Jaguars (7-5 Home: 4-2).

For a number of different reasons, I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

Oakland has seen the total go "under" the number in 5 of its first 12, including in 3 of 6 on the road; last week it played great defensive ball (something I expect to see carry over into this game) as it came away with the 28-13 road upset over San Diego, the total staying well below the number of 44 1/2.

The Raiders came into that contest with a firm game plan in mind; to run the ball and play tough defense; suffice to say their plan worked.

Defensive coordinator John Marshall threw a myriad of different formations at Philip Rivers which completely confounded the veteran pivot (in fact, it's interesting to note that San Diego was so confused by Marshall's defensive wizardry, that it was called for 12-men on the field on back to back plays).

The Bolts were held to just 21-yards on eight carries; although the Chargers didn't even really try to establish a run game, and knowing that Jacksonville will certainly be a much stiffer test in the "ground department" this weekend, it's still significant to note that it was the fewest rushing yards allowed by the Raiders this year (the longest gain was 7-yards by Mike Tolbert, who had broken 100 in his previous two games).

The pass defense held Rivers to an extremely respectable 280-yards through the air.

Oakland has already seen the total go "under" the number in all three games its played this season after its played a division game; over the last two-seasons its seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of 14 in the same position.

On the other side of the field are the Jacksonville Jaguars who have only seen the total go "under" the number in 3 of 12 to start the year, including in just 2 of 6 in front of the home town crowd; last week the Jags played a tight defensive affair on the road though and slapped the Titans 17-6, the total staying "under" the posted number of 43 1/2.

Maurice Jones Drew is coming off the best game of his career with a 186-yard performance; after the victory head coach Jack Del Rio had this to say about his RB; "Obviously, Jones-Drew was special today and we rode him hard. He had a superb game. I talked about him being a champion and having the heart of a champion and part of that is having the humility."

Del Rio added, "The team was kind of celebrating his day and everybody wanted him to say something and the first thing he said was that it is all about the offensive line and you guys did a great job for me today. That kind of humility is really what this group of guys has been about, unselfish, hardworking, committed, staying together, getting better."

David Garrarrd threw only 19 passes and completed 14 of them for 126-yards.

Jacksonville will stick to its game-plan again this week and thoroughly test the Raiders 23rd ranked run defense.

The Jaguars have not played to many "unders" over the last few years, so it's crucial to recognize that they have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in five of eight in the last four weeks of the regular season over the last two-campaigns.

Bottom line: Both teams will be motivated here.

Oakland is tied with San Diego at 6-6 for second spot in the AFC West and is two-games back of the surprising division leading Chiefs (San Diego and Kansas City play against each other this week).

If the Raiders have any shot whatsoever at another upset they will have to play the same sort of hard nosed and inspired/creative ball they did last week.

Jacksonville will have to be wary not to "look ahead" here to its next game vs. the Colts the following week; however, I do expect it to be focused on Oakland on Sunday as it looks to take advantage of the home field factor and its inconsistent road opponent as it continues to try and distance itself from Indianapolis for the division crown.

When taking into account all of the strong motivational and situational factors listed above, and then coupled with the strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot, I believe you'll agree with me that the prudent wager in this particular contest is indeed on the "under".