Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 12,2010

Sports Insights

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

One of our offshore sportsbook contacts circled this game early in the week, reporting that several of his "sharper" bettors jumped on Detroit early in the week, locking in Detroit +7 at home versus Green Bay. This early sharp action has pushed the "sharper books" down to Detroit +6.5 and even +6 (at CRIS). Some of the "Public books" are still at +7.

SportsInsights' NFL marketplace indicators reflect the "smart money" action, due to the "reverse line movement." Although Green Bay is collecting more than 80% of the bets, the opening line of Green Bay -7 has ticked down to Green Bay -6.5. This indicates the existence of "big, smart, money" on Detroit as a live, home dog. We'll "bet against the Public" and tail the "smart money" in this match-up.

* Detroit has lost five games in a row, so we are "buying at a low."

* This is an NFC North Divisional Rivalry, so Detroit should be able to "get up" for this game.

* Although Detroit is just 2-10, they have been very competitive in most of their games this season. They have scored almost as many points as they have given up this season.

* In their first divisional game at Green Bay, Detroit lost by just 2 points.

* Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.

Remember to shop around for the best line, monitor the latest line -- and try to grab the key number of seven. Grab Detroit +7 while you can.

Detroit Lions +7

Carlo Campanella

Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Cleveland Browns +1

The Browns (5-7) are one of only 4 NFL teams that have not allowed an opponent to score 30 points or more this season, and they've defeated some high powered offenses in New Orleans (30-17) and New England (34-14). That stingy defensive play should have no troubles against a Buffalo (2-10) team that's been held to 16 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Hard to back a Bills team who's two victories have come against Detroit (2-10) and Cincinnati (2-10), who combine for 4 total wins this season after 24 games. Take the points with a much more accomplished road Dog, as the Browns are 6-0 ATS when playing on a turf field.

Bryan Leonard

Buccaneers vs. Redskins
Play: Over 41

The Bucs have played a string of very good defensive teams as of late. Atlanta twice, Baltimore and San Francisco. Against the weaker defenses they have faced lately Tampa Bay produced 31 against Carolina and 38 against Arizona. Overall the Bucs have reached 21 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. They should have little problem moving the ball on a Washington team who has permitted 30 points or more five times including 59 to the Eagles.

Washington has not been a very efficient offense this season but they haven't faced too many stop units as weak as Tampa Bay. The Bucs average allowing 15.2 points and 192.2 yards in the first half and we fully expect the Skins to be aggressive offensively on Sunday. The Skins have been held in check against the top stop units in the NFL but they produced 27 against Houston, 24 against Indianapolis and 25 against Detroit. They should be good for at least 21 here and likely 24 which would put this game firmly over the total.

While neither of these offenses are considered strong, the defensive weaknesses will enable both teams to move the football.

Ray Monohan

Oakland Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -4

The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Oakland Raiders on Sunday and this falls into a simple system: bet against West Coast teams on the road in the East Coast playing 1:00 PM ET games. For those who aren't too familiar with the system, the basic concept is that the Raiders, who are the West Coast team, will be playing at what is essentially 10:00 AM their time. The Raiders last two road games (in Tennessee and in Pittsburgh), they were outscored by a combined score of 70-16. Also, the Raiders are on back-to-back road games, which should further bite into their freshness. Jaguars star Maurice Jones-Drew has topped 100 yards rushing in five straight games, including a career-high 186 yards in last week's 17-6 win at Tennessee. Jacksonville has won three of four all-time meetings between the teams, including the most recent one, a 49-11 rout at home in 2007. Jacksonville (7-5) took a one-game lead over Indianapolis in the division race when the Jaguars beat Tennessee and the Colts lost to Dallas last week - the Jaguars haven't been in first place this late in the season since 1999, when they won their last division title. One key trend favors them as well. Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games. The Jaguars are an underrated squad. Bet them to cover on Sunday.

Chip Chirimbes

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers +8

It has been a dreadful year for the Carolina Panthers (1-11) who have 'covered' only three times while getting points in 10 of their 12 games. Atlanta is coming off a huge come-from-behind fourth quarter win over Tampa Bay last week and my not be in the right frame of mind while facing the lowly Panthers. The Falcons have been out-gained in their last two wins and are just 3-13 against the points after back-to-back wins against a foe off a loss. Hard to believe that the Panthers (#1-5) at home are the side. Take CAROLINA!

David Chan

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
PICK: San Diego Chargers -6.5

The Chiefs weren't going to beat San Diego with Matt Cassel and they're certainly not going to stay inside this spread with backup Brodie Croyle at quarterback.

San Diego must win this game to keep alive its AFC West hopes and realistically stay in the playoff hunt. Talent isn't the problem with San Diego - turnovers and special team breakdowns are.

The Chargers rank first in total defense and are No. 2 in total offense. Philip Rivers is putting up MVP numbers. He's thrown 24 touchdown passes and ranks second in passing yards. He's expected to have his full complement of receivers and running backs for the first time this season.

Kansas City doesn't have big-game experience like the Chargers do. San Diego has won the last four AFC West titles. The Chiefs last won a division title in 2003. They haven't won more than four games in any season since 2006.

The Chargers dominated the Chiefs in Kansas City when they met opening week but lost 21-14 on a 94-yard punt return. It was only the second time in the last eight meeting the Chargers have lost to Kansas City.

The Chiefs are going to be more limited than usual with Croyle behind center since it's highly doubtful Cassel will play after having an emergency appendectomy this week. Croyle has never won in nine NFL starts.

Dwayne Bowe is the Chiefs' lone legitimate receiver. He didn't catch a pass against Champ Bailey last week. The Chargers' Quentin Jammer is a lockdown-caliber cornerback, too.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in rushing. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, though, will be running against a stacked eight-man front as the Chargers load up to stop the run not fearing the inaccurate Croyle.

The Chargers were flat last week when they shockingly lost to the Raiders. Prior to that, though, they had scored 36, 35, 29 and 33 points. They are 18-1 in their last 19 December games covering 10 of the last 14 times during the month.

Don't look, or expect, the Chargers to be flat a second straight week at home.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Raiders @ Jaguars
PICK: Under 43

It was a relatively easy victory last week with the "under" in the Browns/Dolphins (23 total points scored); we're now on a stellar 8-2, (80%) "FREE PREMIUM" NFL run since the start of the season.

This time around we focus our attention to Jacksonville as the upstart Oakland Raiders (6-6 Road: 2-4) hit the road to take on the AFC South division leading Jaguars (7-5 Home: 4-2).

For a number of different reasons, I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

Oakland has seen the total go "under" the number in 5 of its first 12, including in 3 of 6 on the road; last week it played great defensive ball (something I expect to see carry over into this game) as it came away with the 28-13 road upset over San Diego, the total staying well below the number of 44 1/2.

The Raiders came into that contest with a firm game plan in mind; to run the ball and play tough defense; suffice to say their plan worked.

Defensive coordinator John Marshall threw a myriad of different formations at Philip Rivers which completely confounded the veteran pivot (in fact, it's interesting to note that San Diego was so confused by Marshall's defensive wizardry, that it was called for 12-men on the field on back to back plays).

The Bolts were held to just 21-yards on eight carries; although the Chargers didn't even really try to establish a run game, and knowing that Jacksonville will certainly be a much stiffer test in the "ground department" this weekend, it's still significant to note that it was the fewest rushing yards allowed by the Raiders this year (the longest gain was 7-yards by Mike Tolbert, who had broken 100 in his previous two games).

The pass defense held Rivers to an extremely respectable 280-yards through the air.

Oakland has already seen the total go "under" the number in all three games its played this season after its played a division game; over the last two-seasons its seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of 14 in the same position.

On the other side of the field are the Jacksonville Jaguars who have only seen the total go "under" the number in 3 of 12 to start the year, including in just 2 of 6 in front of the home town crowd; last week the Jags played a tight defensive affair on the road though and slapped the Titans 17-6, the total staying "under" the posted number of 43 1/2.

Maurice Jones Drew is coming off the best game of his career with a 186-yard performance; after the victory head coach Jack Del Rio had this to say about his RB; "Obviously, Jones-Drew was special today and we rode him hard. He had a superb game. I talked about him being a champion and having the heart of a champion and part of that is having the humility."

Del Rio added, "The team was kind of celebrating his day and everybody wanted him to say something and the first thing he said was that it is all about the offensive line and you guys did a great job for me today. That kind of humility is really what this group of guys has been about, unselfish, hardworking, committed, staying together, getting better."

David Garrarrd threw only 19 passes and completed 14 of them for 126-yards.

Jacksonville will stick to its game-plan again this week and thoroughly test the Raiders 23rd ranked run defense.

The Jaguars have not played to many "unders" over the last few years, so it's crucial to recognize that they have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in five of eight in the last four weeks of the regular season over the last two-campaigns.

Bottom line: Both teams will be motivated here.

Oakland is tied with San Diego at 6-6 for second spot in the AFC West and is two-games back of the surprising division leading Chiefs (San Diego and Kansas City play against each other this week).

If the Raiders have any shot whatsoever at another upset they will have to play the same sort of hard nosed and inspired/creative ball they did last week.

Jacksonville will have to be wary not to "look ahead" here to its next game vs. the Colts the following week; however, I do expect it to be focused on Oakland on Sunday as it looks to take advantage of the home field factor and its inconsistent road opponent as it continues to try and distance itself from Indianapolis for the division crown.

When taking into account all of the strong motivational and situational factors listed above, and then coupled with the strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot, I believe you'll agree with me that the prudent wager in this particular contest is indeed on the "under".

Teddy Covers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Washington Redskins +2

We routinely see NFL line moves of a point or two based on injuries to running backs or wide receivers; two of the most easily replaceable positions in the lineup. However when key injuries strike in positions that don’t attract as much attention as the skill players, the betting markets tend to under-react, not over-react.

We’ve got that exact situation on display this week in Washington. Tampa Bay lost starting offensive guard Davin Joseph two weeks ago. Last week, they lost their starting center, Jeff Faine. That’s two significant injuries to two of their best offensive linemen. The pointspread this week hasn’t moved one iota based on those key injury losses.

The Bucs woes don’t end there. Tampa lost a huge ‘must win’ home game against the Falcons last week because their defense couldn’t get a stop when it mattered most; with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. Two weeks ago, the Bucs lost starting safety Cody Grimm, to a season ending injury. Last week, they lost pro bowl caliber cornerback Aqib Talib to a season ender. Again, we’ve seen no discernable pointspread move from these crucial injuries in the secondary.

Tampa is clearly banged up on both sides of the football. They’re in a tough spot, off a devastating home loss that probably ended their playoff dreams. They are a warm weather team travelling north for a game in the cold December rain. And they’ll be facing a Redskins team primed for a bounceback showing after last week’s embarrassment at the Meadowlands against the Giants. If the Redskins have any heart – and I think they do – they’ll show with enough effort to win this game. 2* Take Washington.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati +8½ over PITTSBURGH

We’re not even sure the Steelers can score 8½ points let alone cover. That genie we keep mentioning that has been following them around for years showed up again last week when the Ravens fumbled with four minutes to go and a three-point lead. Somehow, some way, something odd happens that allows the Steelers to win but this is an average team in a difficult spot. Pitt is coming off that hugely physical and emotional game against the Ravens. The week before they got that fluke win over the Bills and next week they’ll host the Jets. Big Ben looks rough. He’s got a bum ankle and a disfigured nose. The temperatures are going to be unpleasant again this weekend and laying big points in difficult weather will work against you. The Bengals don’t care about much other than their own personal twitter accounts and looking good on television. Having said that, they always care when they play the Steelers and they’ll show up today in an attempt to knock the Steelers down a notch or two. Despite losing nine in a row, Cinci has been in every game and its schedule has been tough with close losses against Atlanta, Tampa, Miami, Indy, the Jets and New Orleans last week. When they played the Steelers on Nov 8, they lost 27-21 and that was when the Steelers were much healthier than they are for this one. Again, the Steelers 9-3 record has them hugely overvalued here and it would not surprise us one bit to see the Bengals win this game outright. Play: Cincinnati +8½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

NEW ORLEANS –8½ over St. Louis

8½-points seems like a pretty big number and it is, however, this choice is more of a situational play than anything else and when the host is up by 21 points that big lumber gets small awfully fast. First, we all know the Saints can score points and chances are they’ll put up a bunch here. The only question will be how will the Rams respond and there’s a strong chance they won’t respond. You see, St. Louis will travel for the third consecutive week after back-to-back road wins in Denver and Arizona. They traveled to the high altitude of Denver and then back home. Then they traveled to the desert and back home and now they’re being asked to travel again and that is just too difficult to overcome. Think of your own work week and that’s without getting your brains knocked around for four hours on game day, not to mention the physical toll practice takes on one’s body. Imagine going out of town and returning home on Monday, only having to go right back to work on Tuesday and then times that by three. It must feel like they just got home and they have to fly out again. Simply put, you can’t take the human element out of any equation and now the Rams are taking a huge step up in class. In fact, four of the Rams last five opponents have been Carolina, San Fran, Denver and Arizona and they barely got by those four dregs. Under these conditions the Rams virtually have no shot against a hungry, fighting for a playoff spot Saints and it says here the Saints whack this invader by a large margin. Play: New Orleans –8½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Washington +2½ over TAMPA BAY

This is another classic case of selling high and buying low. The Bucs were the 4PM featured game last week and everyone watched them give the Falcons a serious run for its money. In fact, those that bet the Dirty Birds had to have felt fortunate to cash the ticket but no matter whom your rooting interest was for, you had to be impressed with the Bucs. Now Tampa draws a much easier opponent and it sure is easy to lean their way. Having said that, they exerted a ton of energy in that game and they lost its most important player other than Josh Freeman when their starting center went down in the second half. That’s key. Furthermore, the Buccaneers will play at a cold-weather site while traveling for the third time in four weeks. They’ll be received by unappealing Redskins team that has been struggling but may be in a better frame of mind after the team cut ties with Fat Albert and the negativity surrounding him. Tampa is improving but it has been favored only three times this season, covering just once and has yet to be spotting points on the road. After last week’s near but impressive win, the Bucs stock is a little too high and that means we’re selling. Play: Washington +2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

RANDALL THE HANDLE

BEST BETS (20-17-2)

Chiefs (8-4) at Chargers (6-6)

The Chargers were up to their old tricks last week, laying an egg against inferior Raiders. We can’t thank them enough for the opportunity afforded us here because of that blunder. While the Chiefs sit atop the division, four games above .500, their recent schedule has been laughable. Kansas City’s previous six opponents consisted of the Bills, Raiders, Cardinals, Seahawks and Broncos twice. That group is a combined 20-40 on the season and have been outscored by an incredible 340 points. The only way the Chargers will qualify for the post-season is to surpass the Chiefs for the division. That creates the urgency and playoff-like atmosphere that should allow for the superior team roll. TAKING: CHARGERS –6½

Buccaneers (7-5) at Redskins (5-7)

Bucs remain in pursuit of a playoff spot but not sure if young team can rebound from difficult defeat in Atlanta last week. The Buccaneers will play at a cold-weather site, while traveling for the third time in four weeks. They’ll be received by unappealing Redskins team that has been struggling but may be in a better frame of mind after the team cut ties with Fat Albert and the negativity surrounding him. Tampa is improving but it has been favoured only three times this season, covering just once and has yet to be spotting points on the road. Seeing will be believing. TAKING: REDSKINS +2

Bengals (2-10) at Steelers (9-3)

Pittsburgh finds itself off huge win over the Ravens while awaiting the arrival of braggart Jets next week. Overlooking this underwhelming Bengals team wouldn’t surprise, especially with Steelers long list of walking wounded. Mummies are less wrapped than QB Ben Roethlisberger as his front line continuously exposes him to oncoming defenders. While the Bengals have taken a giant step backward this season, they’ve been battling recently and loosey-goosey passing game allows for quick strikes. Pittsburgh’s overvalued here. TAKING: BENGALS +9

THE REST:

Raiders (6-6) at Jaguars (7-5)

If you can figure out the Raiders, psychiatry may be the field for you! We’re thinking (hoping?) that Oakland may feed off huge upset of Chargers last week. Having scored more points while allowing less than this host, the Raiders should keep this one interesting. TAKING: RAIDERS +4½

Patriots (10-2) at Bears (9-3)

Tough to fade the Patriots at the moment but we’re going to do just that. The Bears are no slouches themselves lately and with a rugged defence and playing in sub-zero temps, there’s nothing wrong with taking the few points being offered in what figures to be a battle. TAKING: BEARS +3

Browns (5-7) at Bills (2-10)

Buffalo finally ran out of steam last week in Minnesota but should be rejuvenated enough to compete here. Considering that the Bills have the best quarterback on the field while playing this one at home, needing just a win for a cover seems like an achievable task. TAKING: BILLS –1

Giants (8-4) at Vikings (5-7)

Favre or Jackson? Does it really matter? Both guys are prone to turnovers and neither has defeated a winning team this year. Giants battling for division and post-season activity and after covering 21 of past 29 away games, this one becomes a minor hurdle. TAKING: GIANTS –2½

Packers (8-4) at Lions (2-10)

Lions continue to be a scrappy bunch and despite their woeful record, only the Patriots really laid a whooping on them. Detroit hung in as a 14-point underdog in Lambeau a few weeks ago and playing at home should allow them a reasonable chance at redemption. TAKING: LIONS +6½

Falcons (10-2) at Panthers (1-11)

Yes, there is risk in spotting a converted touchdown on the road, within the division and after a key victory. But better to root for talented Falcons squad than this Carolina squad that just does not have adequate personnel to compete at this level. TAKING: FALCONS –7

Rams (6-6) at Saints (9-3)

Saints have been squeaking by some lesser teams recently and while the Rams are improving, they would certainly qualify amongst such types. St. Louis has surprised many with consecutive road wins but ending a three-game trip at this venue will prove a bit too challenging for young squad. TAKING: SAINTS –9½

Seahawks (6-6) at 49ers (4-8)

Even playing in this putrid division and with its soft schedule, Seattle still ranks 30th overall in both total defence and pass defence. The Niners aren’t exactly prolific offensively but they still have enough speedy athletes to take advantage of this leaky unit. TAKING: 49ERS –4½

Dolphins (6-6) at Jets (9-3)

The Jets were who we thought they were. After getting clobbered in New England last week, the sting may take time to dissipate and in the meanwhile, the Dolphins will stop by in attempt to rub salt in New York’s wound. Jets won earlier meeting but only on the scoreboard. TAKING: DOLPHINS +5½

Broncos (3-9) at Cardinals (3-9)

Look away. This line tells you how bad the Cardinals are, as if you didn’t already know. It’s so bad that only the Panthers have scored less and no team has allowed more points than this Arizona bunch. Denver gets a new coach in a situation that lends itself to a successful start. TAKING: BRONCOS –5½

Eagles (8-4) at Cowboys (4-8)

The Cowboys are playing with a renewed enthusiasm and what better stage than a Sunday night affair against the league’s trendiest team. Despite Philadelphia’s recent success, many holes remain on the defensive side and Dallas’ style of offence capable of inflicting some damage. TAKING: COWBOYS +3½

Ravens (8-4) at Texans (5-7)

Texans commonly tease their fans with strong December finishes and with a soft schedule remaining after this one and the division still attainable, we’ll expect a solid effort here. Baltimore arrives battered after Pittsburgh while Houston has had extra rest. TAKING: TEXANS +3

Craig Trapp

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Green Bay Packers -6.5

Rogers and company have been great on offense the last five games. Lack of running game has not bother the Packers and today they air it out early and often. Injuries have kept DET from what was going to be some big upsets. Great defense to boot for GB makes this a beatdown from start to finish.

LT Profits

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals +4

While we realize that the Arizona Cardinals have quit on this season, so have the Denver Broncos, and frankly, neither of these teams should ever be favored by more than a field goal right now. The fact that the Broncos are actually road favorites virtually makes the Cardinals an automatic platy in this NFL Matchup

The NFL latest line from Bodog for this contest is Arizona +4, with the betting odds set at -105.

The Cardinals are now going with rookie John Skelton at quarterback, and he is actually more athletically gifted than both Derek Anderson and Max Hall. He was also the best Arizona quarterback in the preseason, and he now finally gets a chance to prove himself in a real game, Besides can he really be much worse than the two quarterbacks that have guided Arizona to a 3-9 record both straight up and against the NFL odds?

Sure, some rookie mistakes may be inevitable, but Skelton could not have asked for a better defense to make his first start against, The Broncos are weak vs. both the run and the pass, which is a major reason why Denver is 3-9 straight up and 4-8 in NFL betting, and a good running game would make Skelton’s job much easier.

The Broncos just fired Josh McDaniels, and while that tactic has revitalized both the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings, we don’t think this firing will improve Denver that much, if at all. Remember that the Cowboys and Vikings are actually two good teams that were underperforming under their previous coaches, whereas the Broncos are simply not as good as those two clubs talent wise.

It may not be pretty, but we do not see the Broncos building a big lead here, so getting more than a field goal with Arizona seems like a wise investment vs. the NFL betting odds.

Bob Wingerter

Miami Dolphins vs. NY Jets
Play: Miami Dolphins +5½

Big bounce-back opportunity for the 9-3 Jets to get their 10th win and help solidify their post-season status. Except that the Jets expect everyone to lay down for them, and they don’t. Seeing that the Jets have a short week to prepare for them, Miami is coming in early, practicing in the Giants’ facilities (probably to share stuff about upcoming Giants’ opponents Minnesota and Green Bay, who Miami has already played), and until the 6-6 Dolphins are mathematically eliminated, you can’t count them out. So, they lost to Cleveland home. Big deal. New England lost to Cleveland by a lot. The Jets almost lost to Cleveland. Cleveland has the number of AFC East foes because of their coaches and ex-players. Toss out Miami’s loss to Cleveland. Rain and wind in the forecast level the playing field for both teams and sets up the Jets to have to grind it out and fumble the ball, AND miss field goals, while their banged-up secondary misses assignments and tackles. Their quarterback is now under December pressure and unlike last season, when Indy and Cincinnati didn’t try against the in their last two games, (and they got to face super-losing teams Tampa Bay and Buffalo in two other December games), Miami will be trying.

Ross Benjamin

Oakland @ Jacksonville
Play: Over 42.5

The Raiders have gone over the total in 8 of their last 9 games versus a team that averages 32 minutes or more of possession time on the season. Since jack Del Rio has been the head coach of the Jaguars they have gone over the total in 25 of their last 34 games after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Any team that's covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, versus a team that covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 has gone over the total in 33 of the last 42 (78.6%) since 2000. Play on the game to go over the total.