James Patrick Sports
Browns vs. Bills
The Browns look for their third consecutive win as they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills on Sunday, The contest continues a three-game stretch of road games for Cleveland for the fi rst time since 2001. The game will mark the fourth consecutive season in which these teams have faced one another in the regular season and third straight in Buffalo. The Browns have won the last three meetings and Cleveland owns a 5-2 all-time mark in Buffalo. Cleveland holds a 10-5 advantage in the all-time regular season series. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is Cleveland Browns.
Triple Threat Sports
Miami at NY Jets
Play: Miami +5
Miami deserved better last week as they had a sizable first down edge and only allowed one Cleveland scoring drive of more than 14 yards, but turnovers sealed their fate in a loss. Of course the Jets are off a major loss as well, on Monday Night against the Patriots. That defeat puts the Jets in a rare situation, and one that has proven tough to overcome. Note that since 1991 division home favorites off a MNF division loss of 17 or more points are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their next game. We look for a good effort and a cover from Miami here.
Insider Angles
Eagles at Cowboys
The Philadelphia Eagles have revenge on their minds here as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in the Sunday night game this week, and considering that the Eagles have has a few extra days to prepare for this game after playing last Thursday night vs. Houston and that they are simply the much better team this year, Philadelphia should get that revenge in emphatic fashion.
The Cowboys swept three meetings between the teams last season, with the last two wins being the most memorable. These teams closed out the regular season against each other with the NFC East title at stake, and Dallas dominated that game in every way in a 24-0 shutout. That set up a rematch in the first round of the playoffs again here at Cowboys Stadium six days later, and almost as if to prove that the prior week wasn’t a fluke, the Cowboys dominated again 34-14.
These clubs have headed in completely opposite directions this year though, and the Eagles have the potential to be the best team in the NFC if they are not committing turnovers or stupid penalties. They did both but got away with it in the 34-24 win over the Texans last Thursday, but they should be much more focused vs. their hated rivals here.
The presence of Michael Vick has allowed Philadelphia to have something they lacked last season, that being a running game. The Eagles are averaging a very nice 144.0 rushing yards per game, and they lead the entire NFL in rushing average at 5.2 yards per carry/
Now the Cowboys have been much improved while going 3-1 under new coach Jason Garrett, and they could easily be 4-0 considering that they basically had the Saints beaten on Thanksgiving before a late fumble. However, the pass defense has not improved under Garrett, as the Cowboys are in fact allowing a distressful 320.3 passing yards per game the last three weeks.
Thus, Vick can now take advantage of another weak secondary just as he has all year, and the end result should be a big avenging Philadelphia win.
Pick: Eagles -3.5
Offshore Insiders
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)
New York (9-3, 7-5 ATS) was embarrassed 45-3 by the Patriots on Monday night. Nothing went right; Mark Sanchez and the offense looked terrible while the defense had no hope at all of slowing Tom Brady. It’s one of those games you don’t dwell on—just forget it and move on.
Miami (6-6, 7-5 ATS) has rotated between wins and losses for nine straight games. Last week, it was a 13-10 loss to the Browns, which was sealed by an interception by Chad Henne with less than a minute to play. At least the defense is playing pretty well; Miami hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its past four games.
Don’t overthink this one. Yes, the Jets looked awful last week, but they simply got crushed by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. After a few drives, the Jets mentally checked out. That won’t happen against Chad Henne and Tony Sparano. Look for New York to bring its typical array of exotic blitz packages, confusing Henne and forcing some turnovers—and easy points for the offense.
Take the Jets.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)
If at the beginning of the season somebody told you the Raiders and Jaguars would be involved in a hugely important game in Week 14, you’d have called them a liar—yet here we are.
The Raiders (6-6, 6-6 AT) ended a two-game skid with last week’s 28-13 romp over San Diego. Oakland covered as a 13-point underdog and kept itself in the AFC West hunt. The ground game finally got back on track, with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush churning out 192 yards and a pair of scores.
Jacksonville (7-5, 8-4 ATS) is 4-1 in its past five games, including a 5-0 run against the spread. The Jags are playing much-improved defense; they’ve allowed just 288 yards per game over their last three outings.
Oakland’s offense lives and dies by the run, but Jacksonville has bottled up Chris Johnson, Peyton Hillis and Arian Foster in recent weeks.
The Jaguars will play some tough defense, run the ball and cover the spread.
Tom Freese
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
Seattle is 2-4 straight up on the road this year. The Seahwks are 3-12 ATS their last 15 road games. The Seahawks are 3-22-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by more than 14 points. The Seahawks are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games on grass. San Francisco is 3-3 at home this year. The Niners are 9-3-3 ATS their last 15 games off an ATS loss. San Francisco is 13-5-2 ATS their last 20 games following a straight up loss. The Niners are 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game.
Matt Fargo
St Louis Rams vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -9.5
This is a very tough spot for the Rams. St. Louis has been a very pleasant surprise this season as they are 6-6 after winning just six games in the three previous seasons combined. They are 2-4 on the road with both of those wins coming in their last two games and with this being the third straight road game, it becomes more difficult to extend that streak. St. Louis is 5-1 ATS on the road but the schedule has had a lot to do with that as all six games have come against teams not likely to make the playoffs. New Orleans suffered through a post Super Bowl hangover early in the season as it started 4-3 and only one of those victories was a dominating one. The Saints have picked up steam however and are peaking at the right time as they have won five straight games including the last two on the road. They return home where they are only 4-2 but find themselves in a must win spot to keep pace with Atlanta in the NFC South. They play at Baltimore next week which makes this game that much more important. The resurgence of the Rams starts with their defense. They are 14th in the NFL in total defense, 16th in rushing defense and 14th in passing defense. This is an improvement from 29th, 27th and 25th respectively from last season so the turnaround has been huge. Or has it? As mentioned, the road teams they have played have been pretty bad and overall, St. Louis has played the easiest schedule in the league. The Rams are allowing 19.7 ppg but that is against teams averaging only 20.2 ppg which is ranked right around 24th. St. Louis has played only one team ranked in the top ten in the NFL and that was against the Falcons by 17 points at home. This is the second highest ranked opponent they will face this season and easily the most potent offense. The Saints have moved up to third in the league in total offense and two weapons are back at full strength in Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. New Orleans has racked up an average of 448 ypg over its last three games following its bye week. On offense, the Rams have gotten their quarterback of the future in Sam Bradford. He does not look like most rookies as he has had some really good games but at other times, he has in fact looked like a rookie. He has a quarterback rating of 81.0 and faced a New Orleans defense that allows an opposing quarterback rating of 81.2. The Saints are third in passing defense, 15th in rushing defense and ninth overall. They are allowing 18.9 ppg against teams averaging 19.2 ppg and that is right where St. Louis falls. St. Louis is 2-21 ATS in its last 23 games when it is outgained by 1.5 to 2.0 yppl and that is a very definite possibility here. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Saints have struggled at home covering double-digits but they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. With the way the Rams have been playing, New Orleans will not be taking them lightly on Sunday. 3* New Orleans Saints
Frank Jordan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +1
Tampa Bay hasn't beating anyone good this year and now that their schedule is getting tough down the stretch they have dropped their last two games. Washington is coming a brutal game getting run over left and right by the Giants. Look for Tampa Bay to try and do the same but Washington will have that corrected and they will have too many drives stall leaving the door open for McNabb and the Redskins to steal the win at home. Play Washington
Tom Stryker
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
PICK: Buffalo Bills
Off a pair of impressive wins over Carolina and at Miami last week, this is going to be a tough encore for Cleveland. Buffalo has been red-hot against the pointspread lately posting a profitable 5-1-1 ATS mark in its last seven games and the Bills apply to one of my best late-season pro systems.
Since 1980, regular season non-division hosts from game 12 to game 16 are a rewarding 60-35 ATS provided they check in off a straight up loss and they're matched up against an opponent that arrives off a straight up underdog win. If our "play on" side battled on foreign soil last, this powerful technical situation tightens up to a sound 49-25 ATS. Finally, with those two parameters applied and our host holding a won/loss percentage of .100 or better, this system zips to a phenomenal 47-19 ATS! Buffalo applies on all three levels.
If you though that situation was good, then you'll love this next one. Over the past 30 years, NFL road teams that just pulled off an upset on foreign soil priced as a dog of +5 or more last are a horrendous 11-32 ATS provided they're matched up against an opponent that arrives without momentum off two or more straight up losses. If this is a non-division affair, this technical gem slips to a dismal 8-28 ATS and is currently on a jaw-dropping 4-23 ATS run since December of 1988! Cleveland is locked into this "play against" system on Sunday.
As a non-division host over the years, the Bills have been a solid investment posting a reliable 88-59 ATS record including a juicy 50-31 ATS in this set tackling an opponent that checks in off a straight up win. With those two parameters in play and Buffy entering off a SU and ATS loss, this golden situation tightens up to a spectacular 22-5 ATS!
Two solid systems and one sound team trend that have stood the test of time all line up on the host in this AFC matchup. In what could be considered a small upset, the Bills will find a way to get it done. Take Buffalo.
Scott Spreitzer
Northern Colorado @ Illinois
PICK: Illinois -21
Illinois is off to a 9-1 start and they're looking for their best season under HC Bruce Weber, who has not enjoyed the same winning success since coming over from Carbondale. But this version returns all five starters and seven of their top eight scorers. We found out that this team is a little different...a little better than Weber teams of the past when they lost to Texas in OT on Nov. 18, then followed the next night with an 80-76 win over Maryland. That would have been an easy game to lose following the OT loss just 24 hours earlier. I expect Illinois to be completely focused for this one despite the fact that they're faing lesser competition. Weber wasn't too pleased with his team's focus, or lack thereof in their 11 point win over Oakland last time out. B.J. Hill is in his first season as coach of the Bears. Last season, coach Tad Boyle took the program to 25 wins after being ranked at the bottom of the RPI rankings the season before. Boyle is now coaching the Colorado Buffaloes. Northern Colorado is not only getting used to a new coach, but also to a new starting PG. They're playing decent basketball, but lost by 23 in a step-up game against Arizona and will now play their toughest foe, by far. And again, the Illini will be a focused team. The Bears have covered just 6 of their last 20 lined games. Look for Illinois to cover the number. I'm laying the points with the Illini.
Black Widow
1* on Seattle Seahawks +5.5
The San Francisco 49ers have no business being favored in many games this season, especially by 5.5 points against the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. San Francisco is 4-8 this season and were dealt a huge blow when Frank Gore was lost for the season two weeks ago against the Arizona Cardinals. Gore had accounted for 40% of the team's offense and he is one of the few players in the league that is irreplaceable. In their first game without Gore, the 49ers held the ball for a season-low 22:49 in a 34-16 loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. Alex Smith is just 2-5 as a starter against Seattle while Matt Hasselbeck is 10-4 as a starter against San Francisco with 25 touchdown passes. In their 31-6 loss earlier this season to the Seahawks, Smith threw a pair of interceptions and was responsible for their 1-of-15 third-down conversions. The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC West opponents. The 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the 49ers and the points.
Jack Jones
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been undervalued all season, and they remain that way Sunday as they are a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Oakland Raiders. Jacksonville has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall to improve to 7-5 this season. Their only loss came at the New York Giants in a game they really dominated but found a way to lose in the second half. Oakland is improved this season at 6-6, but they are getting way too much credit from the betting public and odds makers for their win over the Chargers last week.
The Raiders are just 12-25 ATS off a upset win as an underdog since 1992. Oakland is 5-15 ATS in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. Jacksonville is 18-6 ATS off a road win against a division rival since 1992. The Raiders are 1-9 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. They are getting outscored by 12.8 PPG in this spot on average. This is the time of year where Oakland usually falls apart, going 19-39 ATS in their last 58 games in December. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series, and Jacksonville beat Oakland 49-11 in their most recent meeting. Bet the Jaguars Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New York Jets -5
Expect the Jets to respond in a big way after getting brutally embarrassed by New England last week. While it can be tough to bounce back after playing the Monday nighter, because it gives you 1 less day to prepare, no teams has been better in this situation than the Jets. After they went down to Baltimore on MNF to start the season, they responded with a 28-14 win over New England on short rest. And after a MNF win over the Vikings, New York was able to go on the road and get the cover in Denver the following Sunday. In fact, the Jets are a superb 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after playing on Monday night football.
In addition, we find that playing on any team after being beaten by 28 or more points ATS the spread in its previous game has produced a 56-24 ATS record the last 10 seasons.
It is also worth noting that Miami is a dismal 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when out for revenge following an upset loss as a home favorite. It is losing by 7.5 point on average in this situation. New York's offense was dominant in an 8-point win at Miami earlier this season. Considering how poorly the Dolphins have performed in revenge spots, I have no problem laying the points today.
Bob Wingerter
Miami Dolphins vs. NY Jets
Play: Miami Dolphins +5½
Big bounce-back opportunity for the 9-3 Jets to get their 10th win and help solidify their post-season status. Except that the Jets expect everyone to lay down for them, and they don’t. Seeing that the Jets have a short week to prepare for them, Miami is coming in early, practicing in the Giants’ facilities (probably to share stuff about upcoming Giants’ opponents Minnesota and Green Bay, who Miami has already played), and until the 6-6 Dolphins are mathematically eliminated, you can’t count them out. So, they lost to Cleveland home. Big deal. New England lost to Cleveland by a lot. The Jets almost lost to Cleveland. Cleveland has the number of AFC East foes because of their coaches and ex-players. Toss out Miami’s loss to Cleveland. Rain and wind in the forecast level the playing field for both teams and sets up the Jets to have to grind it out and fumble the ball, AND miss field goals, while their banged-up secondary misses assignments and tackles. Their quarterback is now under December pressure and unlike last season, when Indy and Cincinnati didn’t try against the in their last two games, (and they got to face super-losing teams Tampa Bay and Buffalo in two other December games), Miami will be trying.
Scott Rickenbach
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
While it is true that the Steelers are off of a massive, key divisional win on Sunday night football, it's also true that the Bengals are simply playing out the string at this point in the season. Cincinnati had just enough to stay inside the spread against the Saints last week. However, Cincinnati now faces a tough division rival and, this time, the Bengals are on the road instead of getting the benefit of home field edge. The Steelers defense played extremely well against Baltimore last week and, on the road Cincinnati's offense will struggle to put up the kind of points that they did against the Saints last week. Note that the Steelers won the first match-up this season with the Bengals 27-21. In that game Pittsburgh actually had a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter. That fact is getting lost in the equation here and we see good value with the Steelers minus the big number in this one!
Hollywood Sports
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Denver Broncos
Lay the points with Denver on Sunday as they are likely to enjoy a strong performance in their first game after the firing of Josh McDaniels. Call it the Wade Phillips/Brad Childress Rule. Players want to prove that the coach was the "problem." And Denver (3-9) has a willing accomplice in the hapless Arizona Cardinals (3-9) who have lost seven games in a row. Arizona is 31st in the league with their 16.7 PPG average along with their 265.3 total YPG mark. Unfortunately for Ken Whisenhunt, the defense has been just as bad as they are 28th in the NFL in yards allowed (386.8 YPG) and dead last in the league by allowing 28.2 PPG. And rookie quarterback John Skelton from Fordham University will be taking the snaps in this game. Kyle Orton leads a Broncos' offense that averages 271.4 in the air which ranks 4th in the NFL. Expect an inspired effort from a Denver team wanting to validate themselves vis-a-vis McDaniels. Lay the points with the Broncos.