CAJUN SPORTS
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Selection: 2* UNDER 44
Denver is averaging 20.0 points per game while their defense is allowing 16.8 points per game on 17.2 yards per point. Indianapolis is averaging 27.6 points per game and on defense they are giving up only 16.7 points per game on 20.0 yards per point. Both defenses make you work for each scoring opportunity which will benefit us here today as we play the under. Denver has really stepped up when facing teams that average 350 or more yards of offense per game, their last eight games in that situation have all fallen under the posted total. In those eight games Denver averages 17.1 points per game while their opponents average 18.8 points per game. The Colts respond similarly after allowing 375 or more yards of offense in two consecutive games, posting a 7-19 Under mark in those contests. They are also 4-14 Under when playing at home after winning six or more straight games. A check of our systems database reveals four league-wide systems that are active for today’s game. We want to Play UNDER on road underdogs of seven or more points the week after a straight up win on the road as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. These teams have gone ‘under’ at a rate of 0-10 under since 1994. Play UNDER on NFL teams who won by seven or more points in each of the last two weeks, these teams have gone ‘under’ at a rate of 18-41 ‘under’ since 2008. If they are installed as an underdog that record improves to 3-21 ‘under’ since 2008. We have two systems that are active for the Colts and they tell us to Play UNDER on a home favorite of seven or more points after a straight up win at home as a touchdown or more favorite in their last game, these teams are 1-16 ‘under’ since 2007. The fact that the Broncos are on a current winning streak of at least two games also favors the under. Play UNDER on home favorites of seven or more points when their opponent is on a two or more game winning streak, these teams are 5-15 ‘under’ since 2007. With solid situational and technical support for the ‘under’ we will play this game to fall well below the posted total.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Denver Broncos – Indianapolis Colts UNDER 44
Vernon Croy
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Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Denver Broncos +7
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This pick falls into one of my NFL systems and the Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a win and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after covering the spread in their previous game. Denver is also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and the Colts are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that has a winning record on the road. The Colts have not run the ball effectively this season averaging just 77 rypg at home and the Broncos defense has been solid against the pass this season with opponents averaging just 168 pypg against them on the road. Grab the points with the Denver Broncos Sunday.
Matt Fargo
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Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -13.5
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The Patriots are coming off a loss on Sunday, which was their second straight loss and that in itself is a rarity. New England has lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2006 when it lost two straight home games to the Colts and Jets. It has not lost three straight games since 2002 when it actually dropped four in a row so you can see what a rarity this actually is. Both of these recent losses have come on the road and that is the way it has been this season as the home team is 11-1 in Patriots games this season, which includes New England being a perfect 6-0 at home and the one road win for New England actually came in a neutral field in London. Three weeks ago, the division title was looking like it was going back to the Patriots but that is not the case anymore as both the Dolphins and Jets are just a game back with four to go. Carolina was able to recover from its loss in New York with a win against Tampa Bay last Sunday but the season is pretty much done barring some sort of miraculous finish. The Panthers beat the Buccaneers despite getting outgained by 160 total yards so the 10-point victory is very misleading. Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman threw five interceptions including two inside the Panthers redzone so this game easily could have gone the other way. That outcome however presents us with some line value as Carolina hits the road again. The Panthers have been outgained in four of their last five games and it is unlikely that will get turned about here as New England is in a must win game and in a spot looking for some payback. Miami is one of the best running teams in football but netted only 88 yards on 27 carries (3.3 ypc) against New England and the Patriots will have to keep that stout rushing defense going against the Panthers. Carolina was without DeAngelo Williams against Tampa Bay but still managed 157 yards rushing on 33 carries (4.8 ypc). Of course Tampa Bay is one of the worst defenses in stopping the run as it is 29th in the NFL while the Patriots are a much more respectable 15th in rushing defense. The blame went to the secondary against the Dolphins as Chad Henne ended up putting together a great game with 335 yards through the air. New England is not that bad at all against the pass as it is 13th in the league but it has had it blowups which have come at the wrong times and mostly on the road. The Patriots are allowing only 158.0 ypg and 5.5 ypa in their six home games and will be going up against Matt Moore who was decent against Tampa Bay but he threw the ball only 20 times and he will see a much tougher defense this weekend. After losing to a division rival as a favorite, the Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their 10 games following that under head coach Bill Belichick with the average scoring differential being over two touchdowns in those games. If there is a game that New England is going to go all out this is the one as it needs to regain its form before going to Buffalo next week which is actually a big game as far as tiebreaking implications go. The home rout will be on Sunday. 3* New England Patriots
BIG AL
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Washington Redskins vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Washington Redskins -1
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Last week, these two teams had very opposite emotions. Oakland came from behind to shock the world champion Steelers, with a 27-24 win as a 14.5-point underdog, while Washington collapsed against the unbeaten New Orleans Saints. Kicker Shaun Suisham (now ex-kicker, after his release on Tuesday) missed two field goals, including a 23-yard chip shot, which would have wrapped up the game for the Redskins, and the Saints went on to win the game 33-30. But even though Washington might be a bit down after that game, it is still deserving of a wager here, as Oakland falls into a nasty 26-43 ATS situation which goes AGAINST teams off upset wins as underdogs of more than 10 points, provided they're NOT favored by 3 or more points. This system has already provided two blowout winners this season with San Diego over KC (after the Chiefs' upset win over the Steelers), and the Jets over Oakland (after the Raiders' upset of Philly). Look for the Redskins to bring Oakland back down to Earth.
Bob Wingerter
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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: New Orleans Saints -10
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The Falcons came up just short a month ago when they were healthy and a little more evenly matched in the standings than now. At this point, with New Orleans chasing history and Atlanta examining health-care options, it seems unlikely that the road to perfection will encounter more than a bump or two in Georgia. The wrong time for a banged-up team to encounter what might be the league's best. Jonathan Babineaux is Atlanta’s top defensive linemen this season. He receives the most snaps of the players in the seven-man defensive line rotation. He has 41 tackles, tops on the team among defensive lineman, and has five quarterback sacks, which is tied for the team lead with Kroy Biermann. He leads the team with eight tackles for loss. Babineaux got arrested on Friday morning for possession of marijuana with intent to distribute and was admitted to the Gwinnett County jail at 1:01 am. Although he is expected to play, this is one of the last things that a banged-up, fading team clinging desperately to a playoff hope needs to have happen to it. The NFL’s best offense is coming into their building and the Saints will not give a hoot about Atlanta’s problems, which go beyond Babineaux and extend into the offense, where the starting QB and go-to running back are both doubtful again. Back-up TE Peele is out, for the first time after getting hurt vs. Philly.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars -3
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We had another successful "free pick" winner with the Jaguars/Texans "under" last weekend and we also hit our fifth "free video pick" play in a row with the Jaguars as they won outright at home as underdogs over the Texans! (check out last week's 5th video winner in a row right here > 5th Video Winner In Row)
Let's continue our incredible "free NFL pick" run and turn our attention to...you guessed it...the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars contest.
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For a number of different reasons I believe the Jaguars will continue their strong run at home:
The Dolphins improved to 6-6 and are just one game behind the AFC East-leading Patriots with their thrilling win over New England last weekend. Although the Dolphins are tied with the Jets, they hold the tiebreaker edge on the basis of their sweep of New York this season.
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Miami always struggles on the road; 2-4 SU its last six away from friendly confines.
Chad Henne has shown flashes of brilliance, but at other times has really looked like a "rookie"; his play so far to this point is best described as: "inconsistent".
The loss of Ronnie Brown for the season will ultimately hurt this team down the stretch.
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On the other side of the field: The Jaguars play the Dolphins and then come back the following Thursday night with another home game; this one against the unbeaten Indianapolis Colts.
If they win both games, they'll probably make the playoffs. If they split, they still might make it. If they lose both, the odds will be against them.
David Garrard had a solid day with two TD passes, no INT's and a 106.0 quarterback rating last week; Maurice-Jones Drew will look to bounce back from a sub-par showing though.
It's true that Jacksonville is just 2-6 ATS its last eight overall, however it always plays tough at home; 4-1 SU its last five overall and 5-0 SU its last five in front of the hometown crowd.
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Bottom line: Because the Colts can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs Sunday by beating Denver (and assuming they will), their following short week game vs. the Jaguars will be meaningless other than if they are interested in preserving the perfect record.
I look for JACKSONVILLE to improve to 6-3 ATS against conference opponents and for Miami to fall to 3-4 ATS on the road this year.
MARC LAWRENCE
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Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +1
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When Kansas City plays host to Buffalo they will be looking to avenge last year's 54-31 loss on this field at Arrowhead. It's good to know the Chiefs are 12-3 ATS at home in the month of December when playing with revenge. It's also good to know Buffalo enters off back-to-back division frays with another division game on deck. With the Bills a paltry 7-17 ATS on the road in games when not getting point when playing off a SU and ATS loss, look for the Chiefs to make amends here today.
ALEX SMART
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Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Denver Broncos +7
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A pair of teams with playoff aspirations lock horns at Lucas Oil Field on Sunday afternoon, when the Denver Broncos (8-4, 8-4 ATS) get it on with the Indianapolis Colts (12-0, 8-3-1 ATS) in a crucial playoff positioning battle. Denver is in a chase to get back on top of the AFC West, but it's going to take a Herculean effort to get the job done. The Colts have already wrapped up the AFC South championship, but they can lock everything up, including a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and losses by both San Diego and Cincinnati.
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Has there been a streakier team in the NFL than Denver this year? After opening up the year at 6-0 both SU & ATS and looking like absolute world beaters, the Broncos slumped to four straight losses before picking up wins in back-to-back weeks. After pounding the Giants 26-6 on Thanksgiving night at home, the Broncos snapped a two-game road losing skid last weekend with a dominating 44-13 win at Kansas City. HC Josh McDaniels’ defense looked a lot like the old "Orange Crush", as the unit held the hapless KC offense to 222 total yards and forced three turnovers. The rushing game was awesome as the trio of RBs Correll Buckhalter, Knowshon Moreno, and Peyton Hillis combined for 40 carries for 246 yards and a pair of TDs.
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What more can be said about the Colts than what has already been said? Last week, they pretty much crushed the Tennessee Titans playoff chase by upending them 27-17 victory at home. It seems like every time this team has its back to the wall, it finds a way to persevere. Just look at Indy's L/6 games. San Francisco had a chance to win at the gun. Houston could've tied the game and forced overtime in the waning moments. The Colts needed to stage an epic comeback to conquer New England. They withstood a furious Baltimore rally. They eliminated a 17-point deficit against Houston. And finally, they took QB Vince Young's best shot and came up strong with their defense in the red zone to effectively cripple Tennessee's season.
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The Colts may be perfect in the record books, but they're far from a flawless team. How many times can these guys take the best shots from the opposition and prove victorious? This is the biggest challenge that this team has faced outside of New England in months. Look for Denver to hang around in this one with just enough offense to get the job done. Manning may lead his team to another win, but the Broncos should stick inside this healthy spread.
Scott Rickenbach
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Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -13.5
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Last week we rode an ugly dog to victory as the Browns got the cash for us. This week we’re going to turn around and make an investment on a big favorite. We often stay away from big favorites in the NFL but, as noted previously, this season has been filled with blowouts. That said, a Detroit visit to Baltimore could very likely produce another one. After getting blasted by 22 points on Thanksgiving Day the Lions “bounced back” with a cover at Cincinnati last week. However, they now have to go to Baltimore and the Ravens will not be in a pleasant mood after falling apart at Green Bay on Monday Night!
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Note that last week’s ATS win was Detroit’s first cover on the road this season and, overall, the Lions are just 3-9 against the spread this season. Last week the Lions got the cover in the final two minutes on a late touchdown. That doesn’t lend a lot of comfort for anybody backing the Lions here. Even with that late TD drive Detroit was significantly outstatted in the game and, as noted above, the Ravens won’t be in a good mood after Monday’s loss. That means the Lions get Baltimore’s “A game”. The Ravens are on a 10-4 ATS run as a favorite of 10 or more points and that includes three covers in the double digit role this season as they’ve gone a perfect 3-0 against the number as a big fave! The Ravens offense has been solid in their last two home games and those came against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh! Detroit is in trouble here. Consider a small play on Baltimore minus the big points on Sunday.
Hollywood Sports
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St. Louis Rams at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
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The St. Louis Rams continue to struggle with their offense on the heels of their 17-9 loss at Chicago. This game was the 5th time the Rams failed to score in double-digits. Furthermore, St. Louis (1-11) has scored only thirteen offensive touchdowns in their twelve games. The Rams will continue to rely on quarterback Kyle Boller given the broken tibia of Mark Bulger. Running back Steven Jackson did not practice last week but did play on Sunday and rush for 112 yards. But having to turn around in a short week, he may not be completely healthy for this game. Tennessee (5-7) was defeated for the first time in six games last week to the Indianapolis Colts, 27-17. While superstar running back Chris Johnson rushed for 113 yards on 27 carries, the fact that the Titans fell behind early in this game compelled Tennessee to have QB Vince Young throw the ball 43 times. While Young played well, that is not the formula for Tennessee's success. The Rams allow over 145 rushing yards per game. Johnson should have a very good game and help his team take an early lead against this St. Louis team that struggles to put points on the board. At that point, Young's ability to run the ball as well as execute play-action passes will provide the Titans' additional offensive diversity to help them control the game and cruise to victory. Tennessee has covered in four of their last five games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points while St. Louis has covered only three times in their last twelve games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points. Lay the points with the Titans.
Carlo Campanella
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
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After being upset 38-28 by Tampa Bay back on November 8, the Green Bay Packers (8-4) called a "players only" meeting to discuss their season. Since that meeting, Green Bay has not lost a game, posting a 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS record, including an easy 27-14 victory hosting Baltimore on Monday Night Football in their last game. They head to Chicago (5-7) this Sunday knowing they're 19-9 ATS on the road and 9-2 ATS on the road against Division foes. Chicago's lack of offense combined with several key defensive injuries has caused them to lose 6 of their last 8 games outright along with a money burning 1-7 ATS record. With the Packer's needing another victory in order to stay in the Playoff picture, we'll lay the points with this road Favorite as we find Green Bay at 9-2 ATS on the road following a home win behind Head Coach McCarthy.
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7* Play On Green Bay
Black Widow
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1* on Dallas Cowboys -3
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The Cowboys have been hearing everything in the media about how they can't get it done in December. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been hearing all about how they are 15-0 in their last 15 December games and how they cannot lose this time of year. Yet, the Cowboys are still favored and there is a reason for it. Odds makers know, as do we, that Dallas is going to be highly motivated in this game to prove their doubters wrong. San Diego will fall flat on their faces Sunday after a great run to regain the lead in the AFC West division. Criticism usually brings out the best in players, and Cowboys' players have had enough of it. We feel they will come out and do something about it Sunday. Dallas is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this year, winning by 11.1 points/game. Dallas is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games off a road loss since 1992. The Cowboys are 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Dallas is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992. It gets even better in the second half of the season. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season since 1992. DeMarcus Ware and company will be able to pin their ears back and get after Philip Rivers Sunday because the Chargers lack a running game to keep Dallas honest up front. Rivers will be on the ground in this one more than he has been in any other game all season. Take the Cowboys and lay the points.
Randall the Handle
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THE BEST
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Bengals @ Vikings
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The Vikings will feel more in their element next week when they get to play another team (Carolina) with a losing record. Minnesota’s 10-2 record finds that the only team it defeated currently sporting a winning record are the arch-rival Packers. Minny’s other opponents are a dreadful 31-65 combined. The Vikes were toyed with on Monday night as the surging Cardinals handed them a 30-17 loss. The Bengals stingy defence has allowed the fewest points in the league while attaining six covers in as many attempts when taking points. TAKING: Cincinnati +6½ +1.02 RISKING: 2 units
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Panthers @ Patriots
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Don’t write off the Patriots just yet. New England’s past four games have all been significant high octane. That set included road games against both the undefeated Colts and Saints. The other two were divisional, with the hated Jets and the pursuing Dolphins. Three of those four were away games. A home game against a dreg is much needed right now. Panthers won last week but Tampa moved at will on them last week, amassing 469 yards of offence but managed just six points despite being inside Carolina’s 30 yard line eight times.TAKING: New England –13½ +1.04 RISKING: 2 units
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Bills @ Chiefs
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The Bills do not offer much but at least they have a few playmakers on the field. The same cannot be said of the Chiefs. Kansas City is missing its best receiver and now could be without sparkplug RB Jamaal Charles (shoulder). And the offence is their bright spot. KC has given up 87 points the past two weeks while they continue to give up in excess of 400 yards weekly. Buffalo will have had 10 days to prepare for this one and should have enough up their moderate sleeve to depart here with a win.TAKING: Buffalo -1 -1.03 RISKING: 2.06 units to win 2
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THE REST
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Broncos @ Colts
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Colts have two games in four days so don’t expect them to have their foot to the floor especially with cushiony lead in AFC. Denver appears to have fixed some things after recent drought and are allotted enough points here to keep it interesting.TAKING: Denver +7
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Jets @ Buccaneers
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Kellen Clemens starts at QB for the injured Mark Sanchez and that’s not a bad thing. Clemens can be conservative while New York’s aggressive defence can create opportunities. Bucs have one win in a year. No reason to back them at this price.TAKING: NY Jets –3
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Packers @ Bears
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The Bears have been sloppy all year long but despite Green Bay’s semi-impressive numbers, they have not been far behind. Now Green Bay must leave the cozy confines of Lambeau, on a short week and spot points to this familiar adversary.TAKING: Chicago +3
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Saints @ Falcons
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Granted, it’s a lot of points to be giving up on the road for a Saints team that had to exert an unexpected amount of energy to slip by the Redskins last week. However, Atlanta spiralling with too many of its relevant players in the infirmary.TAKING: New Orleans –10
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Lions @ Ravens
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Their one win has football folk forgetting just how awful the Lions really are. Let us remind you that they rank near the bottom of most categories on both sides of the ball. Baltimore is banged up but its flickering playoff hopes require wins against such meager opponents.TAKING: Baltimore –13
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Dolphins @ Jaguars
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Jaguars recent play is encouraging but not enough to be spotting points to a legit team. Jacksonville has failed to cover in nine straight as home chalk while Miami found a passing game last week and may carry it over against Jags 23rd ranked pass defence.TAKING: Miami +3
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Seahawks @ Texans
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Despite the weekly torment the Texans have put us through, we’ll call for them once again as Seahawks instill zero confidence when leaving their own field. Seattle is away for fourth time in five weeks and has just one road win this year, in St. Louis.TAKING: Houston –6
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Rams @ Titans
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We’re anticipating a lackluster effort by the Titans here after rival Colts convincingly halted Tennessee’s win streak last week. Rams were wretched last week but were showing signs of improvement before last week’s setback.TAKING: St. Louis +13
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Redskins @ Raiders
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Washington could be spent after traveling for the third time in four weeks combined with heartbreaking losses to the Cowboys, Eagles and most notably, the Saints last week. Raiders pumped after knocking off Steelers.TAKING: Oakland +1
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Chargers @ Cowboys
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Despite Dallas’ underachieving ways, they are still a cut above some of San Diego’s recent opponents and that provides good value for the ‘Boys here. After facing Denver, Kansas City and Cleveland, the Chargers’ banged up secondary may get exposed.TAKING: Dallas –3
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Eagles @ Giants
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While wind may wreak havoc, would rather trust a streaking Eagles squad than suspect Giants squad in this one. Philadelphia dominating series recently with three straight wins, including 40-17 pasting earlier this year.TAKING: Philadelphia +1
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Cardinals @ 49ers
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Cardinals appeared to be suffering Super Bowl hangover when these two met in season opener with Niners prevailing 20-16. Arizona has pulled it together since and is peaking at right time. Niners getting too much respect here for pedestrian team.TAKING: Arizona –3
SPORTS WAGERS
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Miami +1.18 over JACKSONVILLE
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The Dolphins will make the short trip to Jacksonville in what is considered a road game but with little fan interest in Jacksonville you can count on a huge number of Dolphins fans to make the trip. More importantly, however, is that the Dolphins are simply the better team. After opening the year 0-3 they Fish have gone 6-3 since and its schedule has been about 10 times more difficult than that of the Jags. In fact, Miami has already played New England, Indianapolis and New Orleans and dominated the Saints in the first half before a second half implosion. The good news is that Chad Henne is getting better each week and there’s no denying he’s the real deal. The kid has it and after last week’s terrific performance against the Pats, his confidence is soaring. Miami’s defense is tightening up big time, its offense now has a passing game to complement one of the best running games in the league and let’s not forget who’s running the ship either. In a big game nobody is better than Bill Parcells. Meanwhile the Jags are without a signature win this season. They’ve played cupcake after cupcake after cupcake. They recently needed a last minute TD to beat the Bills 18-15. They were smoked in San Fran, 20-3. They beat the lifeless Chiefs 24-21. They have a three-point win over the 1-11 Rams. Each of its last five wins has been by five points or less against a slew of questionable opponents. Incidentally, those three-point wins over K.C., St. Louis and Buffalo were all at home. Based on strength of schedule, momentum, defense, offense and coaching, yeah, I’d say the Fish has a shot, a better one than the host. Play: Miami +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
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NEW ENGLAND –13½ +1.04 over Carolina Pinnacle
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It’s usually not a great idea to be laying close to two converted TD’s in mid-December but this one sets up pretty sweet for the angry Patriots. After getting humiliated on Monday night two weeks ago and blowing a 14-point lead in Miami last week, the talented Pats will be in a foul mood, a very foul mood. The weather will be in a foul mood too and these Patriots thrive in those favorable conditions. New England is now 7-5 and in no way can they afford to lose this easy game. They’ll win, that you can take to the bank, the only question is by how many. The Panthers offer up nothing besides a decent running game but when you’re playing from behind that running game gets put on the back burner and that should definitely be the case here. Against the Bucs last week, the Panthers “D” was shredded for close to 500 yards and only a miracle prevented them from losing. That 16-6 win was this year’s most misleading score, as the Panthers went three and out all game long. If the Bucs offense shredded them last week in Carolina, Tom Brady should absolutely tear them apart. Of course it always doesn’t work out that way but the Panthers remain one of the more beatable teams in the NFL and it’s worth noting that Delhomme will likely be on the rack again. Either way, Moore or Delhomme, this one could and likely will get ugly. Play: New England –13½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
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Buffalo –1 over KANSAS CITY Pinnacle
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One really has to wonder how the Chiefs are going to move the ball here. They definitely cannot run and they definitely cannot pass, not to mention they’ll face one of the top passing defenses in the business. Todd Haley benched Matt Cassel midway through the game but nothing is going to help a team that has zero big playmakers. Cassel will be back in this week but it won’t matter, as the team has lost interest and they’ve also lost trust in its coach. Todd Haley runs the most inefficient and conservative offense in the game. On third and 12 from the 50-yard line you can expect a running play from this clown. On a cold Kansas City Sunday afternoon, you can expect the joint to be half empty, as the fans have lost interest too. Significantly, the Bills have had 10 days to prepare for this one after that awful showing in Toronto. Unlike the Chiefs, the Bills have playmakers and they also have one of the most underrated defenses in the game. The total in this game is 37½ points, which seems awfully high and nobody could be faulted for playing it under. However, those predicted 37½ points has to come from somewhere and it sure as hell isn’t going to come from the Chiefs. Let’s call it 24-3 in favor of the visitor and if you make one wager this week, this should be it. Play: Buffalo –1 (Risking 2.58 units to win 2.5).
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Philadelphia @ NY GIANTS
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The Giants come in as a one-point choice after an important win last week over Dallas. However, they were absolutely shredded by the Boys offense and that’s a big red flag again. In fact, the G-Men have not shown much over the past few weeks with just two wins in its last seven and both wins were unimpressive at best. At OT win over the reeling Falcons and last weeks fortunate win over the Cowboys did nothing to instill confidence in wagering on them. Philly barely broke a sweat in last week’s easy win over those same Falcons, in Atlanta. The Eagles are much more crisp at the moment and always seem to play their best against the Giants. Eagles ruined them earlier in the year by a score of 40-17 and that loss sent the Giants on its current tailspin. They have not recovered yet and they likely won’t here either. Having said that, I’m not a believer in the Eagles and therefore refuse to play them in this spot because I think they’re the most overrated team in the league. Hold a gun to my head and I’d play the Eagles but I’m going to have to pass on this one. Play: Philadelphia +1 (No bets).
Spartan
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OAK +1 vs WAS
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Obviously not a marquee match up here but often that is exactly where we can uncover our best opportunities guys. I can well recall when these teams met in the super bowl and both were proud, winning franchises. You have a young owner who cannot seem to find success and seems clueless at times against his polar opposite, the antique Al Davis who has won but seems to be incapable of guiding this organization into the future. Young clueless going up against old clueless. I'd really love to hear the pregame conversation between those two. As for the actual game I feel the Raiders at home here is actually a value. Long trip for the Skins and many will be backing them after the close defeat to the Saints, problem is they know they blew that game and it's doubtful they took much of an emotional lift out of that loss. Meanwhile the Raiders come back home after an exciting last second victory at Pittsburgh. Believe it or not this Raider team is feeling confident and showing some swagger. Look for the Raiders to keep in extra blockers and roll out Gradkowski in an attempt to at least try and neutralize big Albert Haynesworth. The Raiders feel they can put together back to back wins and I for one feel they can pull this one off at home. For folks thinking the Skins should easily handle this Raiders squad, remember back earlier this year when another NFC Central team ventured into the black hole with high expectations, of course that would be the Philadelphia Eagles and we all recall what happened that afternoon.