GoodFella
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GBP -3 vs CHI
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This Bears team is bombarded with several key injuries- and now they will be without WR/KR Devin Hester for Sundays game. This is just flat out a bad matchup for the Bears here. They struggle against passing teams, and Green Bay's strength is throwing the ball & the Packers offense is really rolling the last several weeks & I expect Rodgers to shred this Bears defense. The Bears can't run the ball which will force them to throw the ball in 2nd and 3rd and long situations for Jay Cutler- who is very prone to making bad decisions and forcing things. This is not good news for the Bears vs a very, very good Green Bay secondary. I really like Green Bay to take care of a injured riddled and depleting Bears team on Sunday. Lay the field goal with Green Bay guys.
Tony George
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KAN -0.5 vs BUF
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I like the home team here in a pick'em type game. Bufflao simply is not on the same page and Kansas City, despite a huge setback last week against a red hot Denver team who blew them out, have played well at home and weekly get better in many areas. The sum of the paerts does not equal the whole at KC yet, but the team was commenting this week about the "Black out" that was threatened by the NFL until a corprate giant stepped in abd bought 3500 tickets so they could televise the game here locally. Arrowhead is not what it used to be and the Players want to win this one and get their fans back.
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QB Cassel was benched last week but will start, and overall I like the offense of Kansas City to put up 21 in this one or more and win it by 3-5 points at home. Buffalo is not a bankable road team and they have issues on and off the field. The weather is cloudy and cold but no rain is expected, but bioth teams used to these type of conditions.
Vegas Vic
Eagles (+1) over GIANTS
Eagles 24, Bears 20
Last week, we had the Birds winning, but not covering. They did both. This time, we'll go for the double dip. And why not? The last meeting had the Eagles breezing to a 40-17 win at the Linc on Nov. 1. We're not looking for another blowout, but with DeSean Jackson back in the lineup (769 yards and seven touchdowns), it should be a solid night for the Green. The Birds have had great success at the Meadowlands, winning and covering five of the last seven. And making this selection even tastier, the New Yorkers have run into quite a rough patch. The Big Blue has lost five of the last seven, while covering only once during that stretch. All that plus Michael Vick (one rushing TD and one passing TD Sunday at Atlanta) finally throwing a scare into opposing defenses.
PATRIOTS (-13) over Panthers
As long as Bill Belichick doesn't bench the players he sent home from practice (Randy Moss, Adalius Thomas, Gary Guyton and Derrick Burgess) New England will be just fine. Actually, this could be the spark that lights the fire under the Patriots for the run to the AFC East title. Now that Tom Brady's wife, Gisele Bundchen, has delivered a healthy baby boy, Mr. Perfect can get back to the business of being Mr. Perfect. He is perfect at home this season, with a spotless 6-0 mark, and has a run of 18-0 in Foxborough since 2006. This Carolina team is the perfect opponent for the Pats and their lackluster pass defense. The Panthers have newbie Matt Moore at quarterback and will rely more on the run than the pass. With New England outscoring the opposition, 117-31, the last three at home (an average margin of 28.7 points per game), covering the double-digit spot should be a best-bet breeze.
Packers (-3) over BEARS
Let's just look for the better team, and that is clearly Green Bay. The Packers are coming off a sloppy, but strong win over the Ravens (27-14), and are smack-dab in the middle of the wild-card mix. The Pack, which has the best defense in the NFL, has covered six of the last eight overall and eight of the last 10 at Chicago. The Bears are pathetic against the spread (covering only one of the last eight), so we're all over the Packers.
TITANS (-13) over Rams
Nothing wrong with ending a five-game winning streak at Indy, where many winning streaks have gone to to die. Now Tennessee can jump back on track against the rotten Rams. St. Louis has one stinkin' win in the last 22 games, so we know that a W is out of the question. Covering the 13 should come easy with Chris Johnson, the NFL's leading rusher, against a Rams defense that ranks among the worst, allowing 146.2 yards per game on the ground.
Saints (-10) over FALCONS
New Orleans almost blew its perfect season by putting it on cruise control against Washington Sunday, but escaped with a 33-30 OT win. That will not happen again. Saints by at least two dozen.
Cardinals (-3) over 49ERS
With weapons like Larry Fitzgerald (eight catches, 143 yards and one TD Sunday against theVikings) and Anquan Boldin (seven catches, 98 yards and two TDs) running wild, Kurt Warner's life is really not that complicated. Arizona has covered six of the last eight overall, with one push, and six of the last seven on the road. And since San Francisco has abandoned the running game (53 yards Sunday), the Cards will pound the one-dimensional Niners for an easy win.
JAGUARS (-2) over Dolphins
Without much fanfare, Jacksonville is holding down the second wild-card spot, and it's because the Jags have ripped off a 5-0 run at home since the beginning of October.
Broncos (+7) over COLTS
Indy goes to 13-0, but Denver should be able to stay competitive to the final gun.
Bengals (+7) over VIKINGS
Cincy's biggest loss on the road this season was by only three points. Grab the 'dog, or the Cats in this case.
Jets (-3) over BUCCANEERS
New Yorkers are 5-0 against the spread vs. Tampa, while the Bucs have covered only one of the last nine at home.
CHIEFS (Pick) over Bills
It's hard to like either of these teams, which have come up way short this season, so we'll go with the home club on our "Monopoly Money Only" game.
RAVENS (-13) over Lions
Baltimore has three cupcakes and Pittsburgh left. The Ravens need to devour the cupcakes.
TEXANS (-6) over Seahawks
Seattle has covered only one of its last seven on the road, so Houston becomes a tasty little play.
RAIDERS (+1) over Redskins
Washington is on an 0-9 roll on the road, so look for the Silver & Black to steal their fifth win.
COWBOYS (-3) over Chargers
Tony Romo looked very capable against New York, and Dallas is always tough at home (11-3 last 2 years).
WUNDERDOG
San Diego at Dallas
Pick: San Diego +3
The Chargers are arguably playing as well as any team in the league right now. New Orleans and Indianapolis are grabbing the headlines thanks to perfect play all season. But, few have noticed that the Chargers have reeled off seven wins in a row by a combined score of 218-106. That's a winning margin of over two touchdowns per game! That's at least as good as New Orleans or Indianapolis and do you think either of those teams would be instilled as an underdog here? The under-appreciated Phillip Rivers is a good part of the reason this team is playing at such a high level. He has a QB rating of 105 and has thrown 21 TDs to just 5 INTs, yet he doesn't get the ink like the other top QBs. The Cowboys have the marquee name and the name QB with Tony Romo, but they are just 1-4 vs. teams with a winning record this season. The fact is that they aren't as good as their record. This is a team that has already lost four games outright as a favorite this season, and San Diego is a very loudbarking dog here - one that is 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 when getting points. Dallas' December woes are now known to all. The Cowboys have a penchant for fading late in the season and are just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 December games including 1-9-2 in week 14, which usually begins the home stretch of the season in December. This is a good matchup for the Chargers who thrive against good offensive teams like Dallas. San Diego is 8-1 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that average over 5.5 yards per play. They are also 15-4 ATS over that span when coming off back-to-back wins. Here we get to grab the superior team getting points.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
New England – vs Carolina
Cincinnati + vs Minnesota
Denver + vs Indianapolis
Houston – vs Seattle
San Diego + vs Dallas
Single Plays
Arizona – vs San Francisco
Tennessee – vs St. Louis
Buffalo – vs Kansas City
Atlanta/New Orleans Over
Carolina/New England Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings
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The underdog is an astonishing 12-0 ATS in Bengals games this season. All six games Cincinnati has taken points, they have won straight up. Their defense has allowed a staunch 11.5 PPG the last six weeks. The Vikings lost outright to the Cardinals last week and are just 16-32 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite, including 0-7 vs. the number if that outright loss came by double digits. Minnesota did not cover against either Baltimore or Pittsburgh, two teams the Bengals swept while going 4-0 ATS.
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Play on: Cincinnati
Tom Freese
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Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Under
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Washington is 9-1-1 their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 45-19-2 UNDER their last 66 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. The Redskins are 10-1 UNDER after passing for more than 250 yards in their last game and they are 4-1-1 UNDER in Week 14. Oakland is 5-0-1 UNDER their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing road record and they are 7-1-2 UNDER in Week 14. The Raiders are 19-7 UNDER their last 26 games as underdogs 0.5 to 3.0 and they are 4-1 UNDER off an ATS WIN. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
SPORTS ADVISORS
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Denver (8-4 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (12-0, 8-4 ATS)
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The torrid Colts look to grab home-field advantage for the playoffs and set an NFL record with their 22nd straight regular-season win when they play host to the Broncos at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis topped Tennessee 27-17 Sunday as a six-point home favorite to remain unbeaten, while also cashing for the third straight week. The Colts, who have won 21 straight regular-season contests dating to last season, rank fourth in the league total offense (390.6 total yards per game), mostly due to QB Peyton Manning leading the NFL’s No. 1 passing attack at 302.8 ypg, with the MVP candidate tossing 26 TDs against 12 INTS. Indy’s offense is also fourth in scoring 27.6 ppg (fourth), and Jim Caldwell’s troops are also second in points-allowed at just 16.8 ppg.
Denver has bounced back from an 0-4 SU and ATS skid by winning and cashing in its last two, including a 44-13 rout of Kansas City last Sunday as a six-point road chalk. Despite that scoring outburst, the Broncos are still netting just 20 ppg on the year (21st). However, they rate third in scoring defense (16.8 ppg), having given up just one point more than the Colts, and they’re third in total defense (288.9 ypg).
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The SU winner has cashed in all 12 of Denver’s games this year and 15 in a row overall for the Broncos.
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Indianapolis has won the last three meetings in this rivalry SU and ATS, including a 38-20 home victory laying 10 points in September 2007. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, during which the favorite and the home team also went 4-1 ATS, and Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last five home clashes with Denver. Also, the SU winner has cashed in eight straight meetings between these clubs.
The Colts are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home chalk, but they are otherwise on ATS upticks of 3-1 overall (all as a chalk and all against the AFC), 6-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in December. The Broncs are on identical 7-1 ATS runs after either a SU or an ATS win, but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 2-9 in roadies against teams with a winning home record 1-4 in December and 3-6 on the road after a SU victory.
Indianapolis is on “under” runs of 5-2 at home and 10-4 in conference play, and the under for Denver is on tears of 9-3 overall, 4-0 with the Broncos a pup, 9-1-2 against winning teams, 11-2 after a SU win and 9-2 after a spread-cover. However, the over is 10-4-1 in Denver’s last 15 December starts, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last five clashes.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Cincinnati (9-3, 6-6 ATS) at Minnesota (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS)
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Two teams aiming to improve their playoff credentials get together when the Bengals head to the Metrodome for a non-conference clash with the Vikings.
Cincinnati topped Detroit 23-13 last week, but fell short as a hefty 13½-point chalk for its third straight ATS setback (2-1 SU), all against league doormats – the Lions, Browns and Raiders. The Bengals are fielding the NFL’s staunchest defense, allowing just 15.6 ppg, and they are fourth in total yards allowed at 293.2 per game. And RB Cedric Benson didn’t miss a beat in returning from a hip injury, with 36 carries for 110 yards against Detroit. Despite missing two games, Benson is seventh in the league with 969 rushing yards.
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Minnesota had its four-game win streak (3-0-1 ATS) snapped in a 30-17 loss at Arizona as a 3½-point road favorite, being held under 27 points for just the second time all year (both losses). The Vikings are still second in the NFL in scoring at 29.9 ppg, trailing only the Saints (36.7 ppg), with an offense rolling up 383.8 ypg (fifth). Minnesota also sports a plus-seven turnover margin (seventh).
These teams have met just once this decade, with Cincinnati rolling 37-8 as a 3½-point home favorite in September 2005.
The underdog has covered in all 11 of Cincinnati’s games this season, while as a team the Bengals are on ATS runs of 8-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 as a road pup, 6-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against the NFC and 5-2 in December. Likewise, the Vikings are on ATS surges of 3-1-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU loss and 7-3 as a non-conference chalk, but they are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight December outings and 2-7 ATS in their last nine against winning teams.
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The under for Cincinnati is on several rolls, including 4-1 overall, 10-1 in December, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 as a road pup and 24-9 with the Bengals catching 3½ to 10 points on the highway. The under has also hit in four straight for Minnesota (all as a chalk) and is 4-1 in the Vikes’ last five December games, but the over is 34-16-3 in Minny’s last 53 games following a SU loss.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
N.Y. Jets (6-6 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-10, 4-8 ATS)
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The Jets, just a game behind New England for first place in the AFC East, fly south to face the dismal Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium, but New York will do so without starting QB Mark Sanchez in the linuep
New York held off Buffalo 19-13 in the Thursday game last week (played in Toronto), covering as a 3½-point chalk. It was the second straight win and cover for the Jets, following a 1-6 SU and ATS purge. New York boasts the league’s No. 1 running attack (168.6 ypg), with RB Thomas Jones (1,068 yards, 4.5 ypg, 9 TDs) leading the way, yet the Jets are 20th in total offense (324.9 ypg) and 17th in scoring (20.8 ppg).
Sanchez sprained his knee in the win over the Bills and has been ruled out for this game, meaning Kellen Clemens will get the start.
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Tampa Bay lost to Carolina 16-6 as a 3½-point road pup Sunday for its fourth consecutive setback (2-2 ATS). The Buccaneers have scored 17 points or less in seven of their last 10 games and are averaging just 15.6 ppg on the year (29th). Defensively, the Bucs are giving up 365.8 ypg (26th) and are allowing the second-most points in the league at 27.5 ppg.
New York and Tampa have met just twice this decade, with the Jets going 2-0 SU and ATS, both from the underdog role. Most recently, New York won 14-12 as a three-point home pup in October 2005.
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The Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a SU win, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six December starts and are on further pointspread purges of 0-5 against the NFC on the road and 4-11 as a favorite. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are on a 1-15 SU nosedive (5-11 ATS) and are on a handful of negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 overall, 1-8 at Raymond James, 1-6 in December and 3-10 after a SU loss.
The under for New York is on runs of 8-1 in December, 5-2-1 on the highway, 5-2 following a SU win and 13-6 after a spread-cover, and the under is 4-1 for Tampa Bay in its last five coming off a SU loss. However, the total has cleared the posted price in eight of the Bucs’ last 10 December games.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Buffalo (4-8, 6-6 ATS) at Kansas City (3-9, 5-7 ATS)
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In a meeting of two teams playing out the string, the Chiefs try to snap a two-game skid when they face the Bills at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City got belted for the second straight week last Sunday, losing to Denver 44-13 as a six-point home ‘dog after taking a 43-14 beating at San Diego catching 13½ points a week earlier. The Chiefs have allowed 24 points or more in five of their last six games and are giving up 27.2 ppg for the year (30th), along with 394.6 ypg, second-worst behind only Cleveland’s 400.2 ypg. Offensively, K.C. is netting just 265.6 ypg (30th) and 16.3 ppg (28th).
Buffalo, playing in the Thursday game last week, lost to New York 19-13 as a 3½-point “home” pup in Toronto, ending a modest two-game ATS upswing since Perry Fewell took over as interim coach. Like the Chiefs, the Bills have struggled to score all season, averaging 16.6 ppg (27th) and getting held to 17 points or less in eight of their last 10 outings, while gaining just 273.9 ypg (26th).
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These teams met in November 2008, also in Kansas City, with Buffalo rumbling to a 54-31 victory as a three-point road chalk and improving to 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five clashes. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 contests, dating to 1993.
The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four after a double-digit home loss, but they are also on ATS skids of 5-14 at Arrowhead, 2-6 after a non-cover and 3-7 against the AFC. The Bills are on a 1-4 ATS slide against winning teams, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2 on the highway, 6-2 as a road pup and 7-3 after a SU loss.
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Kansas City is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 4-1-1 overall, 3-0-2 at home, 8-1-1 after a double-digit home loss and 25-12 in December, though the Chiefs are on a 9-2-1 “under” surge against losing teams. The under for Buffalo is on runs of 6-2 overall and 5-2 against the AFC, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last seven meetings overall and four of the last five at Arrowhead.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Green Bay (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) at Chicago (5-7, 4-8 ATS)
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The Packers, who are on a four-game run that has put them in the thick of the playoff race, travel to Soldier Field for a meeting with the division-rival Bears.
Green Bay dumped Baltimore 27-14 on Monday night as a 3½-point home favorite, moving to 3-0-1 ATS during its winning streak. QB Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL’s sixth-best total offense, at 379.3 ypg, and the Pack are putting up 26.9 ppg (seventh), scoring 26 or more in seven of the last eight games. The big difference maker for Green Bay this year, though, is its league-leading turnover margin of plus-18.
Chicago held off hapless St. Louis 17-9 at home Sunday to snap a four-game SU skid, but the Bears fell short of cashing as a 9½-point chalk and have now dumped five straight ATS decisions. The presence of QB Jay Cutler hasn’t done much to bolster Chicago’s fortunes, as it is averaging just 309.2 ypg (24th) and 19.4 ppg (22nd). Cutler has a league-leading 20 INTs (against 17 TDs), and the Bears have the second-worst running game (88 ypg).
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Green Bay held off Chicago 21-15 as a 4½-point favorite in Week 1 to cover for the third straight time (2-1 SU) in this long-standing rivalry. The Packers have cashed in eight of their last 10 Soldier Field clashes with the Bears, and they are 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings overall. Also, the SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 contests.
The Packers are on several spread-covering streaks, including 9-3 in the NFC North, 4-1-1 against losing teams, 5-2-1 laying points, 17-7-1 on the highway and 10-4 as a road chalk. The Bears are on an 11-5 ATS run getting three points or less at home, but otherwise, they are on ATS dives of 6-18-2 after a SU win, 0-4 after an ATS setback, 1-6 in division play, 0-6 against the NFC and 0-5 versus winning teams.
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The over carries the day for Green Bay, as it is on tears of 46-22-2 against losing teams, 18-8 with the Pack favored, 12-5-1 in roadies, 19-7 after a SU win and 22-6 after a spread-cover, though the under has hit in four of the Packers’ last five December games. The under for Chicago is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-2 at Soldier Field and 7-3 with the Bears a home pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
New Orleans (12-0, 8-4 ATS) at Atlanta (6-6, 7-5 ATS)
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The Saints, who narrowly kept their perfect record intact last week, hit the road for the second straight Sunday, this time facing the NFC South rival Falcons, who are on the brink of being forced out of the playoff picture.
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New Orleans struggled all afternoon Sunday with Washington, trailing by 10 on three occasions, but it rallied from 30-20 down in the fourth quarter to win 33-30 on a field goal in overtime. The Saints fell well short as a nine-point road chalk, ending a two-game ATS uptick, but they continue to field the league’s most dominant offense, averaging 429 ypg and a whopping 36.7 ppg. New Orleans also forced four turnovers Sunday while committing just one, to stand at plus-15 for the season, second-best in the NFL.
Atlanta, minus starting QB Matt Ryan, got pelted by Philadelphia 34-7 as a four-point home pup last week, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Falcons have been giving up points in bunches the past seven games, allowing 28 points or more five times, with four teams scoring 34 points or more. Atlanta’s defense is also yielding 374.4 ypg on the year (28th).
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Ryan, who is dealing with a toe injury, is questionable for this game. If he can’t go, veteran backup Chris Redman will get the nod once again.
New Orleans has won six of the last seven in this rivalry (4-3 ATS), including a 35-27 home victory Nov. 2, though it failed to cover as an 11-point favorite in that one. Despite that outcome, the SU winner is still 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.
The Saints have failed to cash in four of their last five in conference action, but they still sport positive ATS streaks of 13-5-1 overall, 7-2-1 on the highway, 11-4-1 in road division tilts and 7-2 after a non-cover. The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 coming off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a pointspread setback, but they are also on ATS dips of 1-4 in December, 4-9 in the NFC South and 4-9 as a home ‘dog.
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In this rivalry, the over has hit in the last four meetings. Furthermore, the over for New Orleans is on sprees of 22-10-1 overall, 10-1 in December, 18-7 after a SU win and 37-18-1 against NFC foes. Atlanta is on nothing but “over” tears, including 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss, 9-3 within the conference, 6-2 inside the division and 7-3 in December.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Detroit (2-10, 3-8-1 ATS) at Baltimore (6-6 SU and ATS)
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The Ravens, who reached the AFC title game last year, face a near must-win proposition to stay in the postseason picture when they meet the lowly Lions at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore lost to Green Bay 27-14 Monday night getting 3½ points on the road for its third consecutive ATS setback, and the inconsistent Ravens have alternated SU wins over their past seven games. Baltimore has also struggled to score lately, netting 20 points or less in each of its last five outings to drag its season average down to 22.6 ppg (15th) after spending the first few weeks of the year among the top five in scoring.
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Detroit fell at Cincinnati 23-13 Sunday for its second straight loss, though it covered as a heavy 13½-point pup to halt an 0-5-1 ATS slide. Like Baltimore, the Lions also have struggled to put up points, getting held to 13 or less in five of their last seven starts, and they are averaging only 17.2 ppg for the year. Defensively, Detroit is yielding a league-worst 29.8 ppg, along with 388.2 ypg (30th).
Lions Rookie QB Matthew Stafford (shoulder) is unlikely to play this week, meaning veteran Daunte Culpepper will start.
These squads have squared off just once this decade in regular-season play, with Detroit rolling 35-17 as a 1½-point home favorite in October 2005.
Despite their current 1-4 ATS skid, the Ravens maintain positive pointspread streaks of 9-0 against losing teams, 11-4 laying points, 40-17-1 as a home chalk, 9-2 laying more than 10 points at home and 6-2 after a SU loss. The Lions are a putrid 3-33 SU (11-24-1 ATS) in their last 36 games, dating to the middle of the 2007 season, and they are on ATS purges of 1-5-1 overall, 1-4-1 in roadies (all as a ‘dog), 1-4-1 after a SU loss and 7-18-1 after a spread-cover.
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The under for Baltimore is on runs of 5-1 overall, 5-1 with the Ravens a chalk, 6-2 as a home favorite, 4-1 in December and 4-1 at home, though the over is on a 7-3 surge against losing teams. The under for Detroit is on upticks of 5-2 overall and 4-1 from the underdog role, but the over for the Lions is on tears of 10-2-1 after a spread-cover, 9-3 in December and 8-3 on the highway.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
Miami (6-6 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (7-5, 5-7 ATS)
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The Jaguars, who have fought their way into playoff position after an 0-3 start to the season, look for their fifth win in six weeks when they battle the in-state rival Dolphins.
Jacksonville dropped Houston 23-18 as a one-point home pup last week, ending a two-game ATS skid while improving to 4-1 SU in the last five. The Jaguars are getting it done despite averaging just 18.8 ppg (23rd) while giving up 22.8 (22nd). Jacksonville is bolstered by the league’s seventh-best rushing attack (130.5 ypg), with Maurice Jones-Drew (1,077 yards, 4.6 ypc, 13 TDs) sitting fourth in rushing yards.
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Miami upended New England a week ago, rallying from a 14-0 deficit to take a 22-21 victory as a 4½-point home ‘dog. The Dolphins, who have alternated spread-covers over their last five games (3-2 SU), are fourth in rushing (150.4 ypg) and 12th in scoring (23.2 ppg), but they are giving up 24.7 ppg (26th).
Miami and Jacksonville have met in the preseason every year since 2003, but they’ve had just three meaningful clashes since 2000, with the Jags going 2-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, Jacksonville rolled 24-10 as a one-point road chalk in December 2006. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four contests.
Although they have surged into postseason contention, the Jaguars are on pointspread declines of 2-6 overall, 3-11 at home, 1-12 as a chalk, 0-9 laying points at home, 2-9 after an ATS win and 4-13 outside the AFC South. On the flip side, the Dolphins sport positive ATS streaks of 9-4 on the road, 4-0 getting points, 8-2 as a road pup, 5-1 against AFC foes and 4-1 against winning teams, but Miami is also just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-division games.
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Jacksonville is on “over” runs of 5-2 at home, 5-1-1 with the Jaguars a favorite, 9-3-1 with them laying three points or less and 5-0-1 with the Jags a home chalk of that same price. That said, the under is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six December starts, and the under for Miami is on rolls of 8-3 on the highway, 7-1 with the Dolphins a road pup, 4-1 in December and 16-6 with the squad coming off a SU win.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Carolina (5-7 SU and ATS) at New England (7-5, 6-6 ATS)
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The Patriots will try to halt a rare two-game losing skid in a non-conference contest with the Panthers at Gillette Stadium.
New England blew a 14-0 lead at Miami last weekend, losing 22-21 on a late field goal as a 4½-point road favorite. It was the Patriots’ second straight loss – the first time that’s happened since 2006 – and third in the last four games (2-2 ATS), trimming their lead in the AFC East to just one game over the Jets. New England still sports the second-most-productive offense, churning out 414.6 ypg, while scoring 27.3 ppg (fifth), and they’re giving up 321.9 ypg (11th) and just 18.7 ppg (seventh).
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Carolina topped Tampa Bay 16-6 as a 3½-point home chalk Sunday, snapping a two-game SU and ATS skid. QB Jake Delhomme (finger) sat out the victory, but that might have actually helped, as the long-time starter has tossed 18 INTs, this season, trailing only the Bears’ Jay Cutler and the Lions’ Matthew Stafford (20 picks each. The lone bright spot for the Panthers: They have the NFL’s third-best rushing attack, racking up 151.9 ypg.
Delhomme is expected to sit out again this weekend, with Matt Moore set to start again.
The last regular-season meeting between these squads was in September 2005, with Carolina winning 27-17 as a three-point home pup. The Panthers are 2-1 ATS (1-2 SU) in three clashes with New England this decade, including a 32-29 loss as a seven-point ‘dog in the Super Bowl following the 2003 season.
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The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five at Gillette (all as a chalk), 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 following a SU loss and 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen following a pointspread defeat, and they are also on a 5-2 ATS run against losing teams. However, they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 laying more than 10 points. The Panthers have cashed in seven of their last eight December starts, but they are on a 4-10 ATS purge as a road underdog and are 4-8 ATS in their last dozen against the AFC.
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The over is 6-2-1 in New England’s last nine home games (all as a favorite), and the over for Carolina is on stretches of 7-3 on the road, 7-3 with the Panthers a pup, 8-3 against winning teams and 11-5 in December. However, the under for the Pats is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 against losing teams and 7-2-2 laying more than 10 points at home, and for the Panthers, the under is on surges of 4-1 overall, and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Seattle (5-7 SU and ATS) at Houston (5-7, 5-6-1 ATS)
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The Seahawks pursue their third straight victory when they make the trek to the Lone Star State for a non-conference clash with the Texans at Reliant Stadium.
Seattle bested San Francisco 20-17 catching one point at home Sunday, winning and cashing for the second straight week after a likely season-killing 1-4 SU and ATS skid. The Seahawks have been up and down all year offensively, scoring 27 points or more four times and 17 points or less five times. They rate 23rd in total offense (317.2 ypg) and 20th in scoring (20.2 ppg), and they’re in that same range defensively, allowing 349.4 ypg (21st) and 22.2 ppg (20th).
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Houston’s season has imploded over the past month, losing four in row – all to division opponents – including a 23-18 defeat at Jacksonville on Sunday as a one-point favorite for its third consecutive ATS setback. The Texans have scored 18 points or less in three of the four losses, following a stretch in which they put up 24 points or more in six out of seven games. QB Matt Schaub is directing the NFL’s fourth-best passing attack, at 278.9 ypg, but the Texans are running for just 89 ypg (29th), and they will be without star RB Steve Slaton (neck) for the rest of the season.
Schaub left last week’s game against Jacksonville with a shoulder injury, but he returned and is probable for today.
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There has been just one meeting between these two units, in October 2005, with Seattle belting Houston 42-10 as a 9½-point home chalk.
The Seahawks are on ATS upswings of 5-0 against losing teams and 4-1 in December, but they are otherwise on pointspread dives of 5-11 after a spread-cover, 3-10 after a SU win, 1-6 in roadies and 9-24 in non-division roadies. The Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six at home, but they are on a pair of 5-2 ATS runs – coming off a non-cover and in December.
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Seattle is on “over” runs of 6-1-2 against losing teams, 4-1 on the road and 25-12 as a road pup, but the under for the Seahawks is on 4-1 rolls after either a SU or an ATS win. The under for Houston is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in December, 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 with the Texans favored and 4-0 against losing teams.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
St. Louis (1-11, 6-6 ATS) at Tennessee (5-7 SU and ATS)
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The Titans, who had their five-game winning streak snapped last weekend, try to bounce back when they take on the lowly Rams at LP Field.
Tennessee tumbled to undefeated Indianapolis 27-17 Sunday as a six-point road pup, failing to cover for the second straight week after a four-game ATS surge. The Titans, who lost their first six games (1-5 ATS) before winning their next five (4-1 ATS), couldn’t keep their hot streak going against the Colts after falling behind 21-3. That said, star RB Chris Johnson (27 carries, 113 yards) continued to get it done, and he now has a league-leading 1,509 yards, averaging an eye-popping 6.2 ypc.
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QB Vince Young missed some practice time this week with a knee injury but is expected to start against the Rams. If he can’t go, though, veteran Kerry Collins will get the nod.
St. Louis dumped its fourth in a row in a 17-9 loss at Chicago, but covered as a 9½-point chalk and is now 4-1 ATS in its last five starts. The Rams have been held to 17 points or less in 10 of 12 games this year, including six outings of 10 points or less, and not surprisingly, they rate last in the league at 11.6 ppg. RB Steven Jackson is second to Johnson on the league rushing list, at 1,232 yards, (4.6 ypg), but his yards haven’t converted to points for St. Louis.
These teams have met twice this decade, with St. Louis going 2-0 SU and 0-1-1 ATS, including a 23-16 Super Bowl victory following the 1999 season, getting a push as a seven-point chalk. Most recently, the Rams won 31-27 giving seven points at home in September 2005, but Tennessee cashed as a seven-point pup.
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The Titans are on ATS dips of 1-6 after either a SU or an ATS loss and 2-6 laying points, but they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against losing teams, and they are on further ATS rolls of 5-0 laying more than 10 points and 16-5 hosting the NFC. The Rams are a paltry 1-21 SU (10-12 ATS) in their last 22 outings, and they carry negative ATS streaks of 3-9 catching more than 10 points and 13-27 following a SU loss. But along with their current 4-1 ATS run (all as a pup), they are on spread-covering upticks of 5-1 against losing teams and 4-1 on the road (also all as a ‘dog).
The under is 5-2 in Tennessee’s last seven December games, but the over for the Titans is on spurts of 4-0 against losing teams and 8-3 after a SU loss. Meanwhile, St. Louis is on a 5-1 “under” tear on the road (all as a pup).
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ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Washington (3-9, 6-6 ATS) at Oakland (4-8, 6-6 ATS)
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The Raiders, coming off one of the biggest upsets of the year, continue their quest to salvage a little dignity for the once-proud organization when they tackle the Redskins at the Coliseum.
Oakland shocked Pittsburgh 27-24 as a whopping 14½-point road underdog last weekend and is now on a modest 2-1 SU and ATS upswing, including an upset win over likely AFC North champ Cincinnati in its last home game. Still, the 27-point outburst is far from the norm for the Raiders, who are still 31st in scoring at a meager 11.8 ppg this year, and they also sit sit 31st in total offense (247.8 ypg).
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Washington nearly pulled off a huge upset over undefeated New Orleans last Sunday, blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead and falling 33-30 in overtime, though the Redskins easily cashed as a nine-point home ‘dog. The ‘Skins have dropped three in a row SU – by a total of seven points – but they’ve cashed in each of their last four starts. Washington has scored 24 points or more in three of those games, well above their season average of 16.7 ppg (26th).
Oakland edged Washington 16-13 as a six-point road pup in November 2005, the only time these squads have met this decade.
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Despite the Raiders’ recent surge, they remain on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 0-4 after a spread-cover, 1-5 after a SU win, 16-37-1 at the Coliseum, 16-36-1 against losing teams and 3-13 against the NFC. The Redskins are on ATS dips of 6-17-4 against losing teams, 4-9-2 after a SU loss and 1-10-1 against the AFC, though along with their current 4-0 ATS run, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine December starts.
The over is 5-1-1 in Oakland’s last seven in December, but the Raiders are on “under” stretches of 5-0-1 against losing teams and 4-1 following a spread-cover. The over has hit in five of the last six overall for Washington and is on a 5-0 roll for the ‘Skins following a SU loss, but the under for Jim Zorn’s troops is on a 9-1-1 tear against losing teams.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Diego (9-3, 6-6 ATS) at Dallas (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
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The streaking Chargers chase their eighth consecutive victory when they make the trip to Jerry Jones’ palatial new stadium to take on the Cowboys.
San Diego was up 27-7 on Cleveland in the third quarter Sunday before letting off the gas in a 30-23 road victory, failing to cash as a healthy 13½-point chalk, which ended a four-game spread-covering streak. The Chargers have scored 30 points or more in each of their last four games and sit third in the league for the season, averaging 28.5 ppg. San Diego also has posted a plus-9 turnover margin (fourth).
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Dallas had its 6-1 SU roll halted last Sunday in New York, losing 31-24 to the Giants as a one-point chalk. The Cowboys had more than 400 total yards against the Giants and still sport the third-most proficient offense in the league, rolling up 394.8 ypg, though that has yielded just 23.2 ppg (tie for 10th). That’s generally been enough scoring, though, as the Dallas defense has held its opponents to an average of 17.8 ppg (fifth).
San Diego and Dallas have split two meetings SU and ATS this decade, with the road team winning and cashing each time. Most recently, Dallas won 28-24 as a 4½-point underdog in September 2005.
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The Chargers are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall (all after SU wins), 8-2 in December, 19-6-3 as a ‘dog and 15-6-3 as a road pup, but they’ve gone just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-division road games. The Cowboys have won their last five home games SU, going 4-1 ATS (all as a chalk), and they’re on an 11-4 ATS run in non-division home games, but the Pokes shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-4 laying three points or less, 3-13-2 in December and 2-5 against winning teams.
San Diego is on a handful of “over” tears, including 11-5-2 overall, 5-0-1 in December, 20-8-3 on the highway and 10-4 following a SU win, and the over for Dallas is on rolls of 5-2 against winning teams and 9-4 with the Cowboys giving three or less at home. However, the under for Dallas is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-2 after a SU loss and 13-6 after a non-cover.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Philadelphia (8-4, 7-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (7-5, 5-7 ATS)
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The Eagles aim to remain in the NFC playoff picture, while the Giants will try to climb back in it when these NFC East rivals collide at the Meadowlands.
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Philadelphia has followed a two-game losing skid by peeling off three straight victories (2-1 ATS), including a 34-7 blowout of Atlanta on Sunday as a four-point road chalk. The Eagles sit 11th in the NFL in total offense at 359 ypg, but they rate sixth in scoring at 27.2 ppg, boosted by a plus-12 turnover margin that rates second only to the Saints. Philly’s defense, meanwhile is yielding 304.1 ypg (seventh) and 19.6 ppg (13th).
New York stemmed a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS plunge by dropping Dallas 31-24 Sunday as a one-point home pup, winning and covering in the same week for the first time since Oct. 11. The Giants are averaging 25.2 ppg (eighth), but they’re giving up just a couple ticks less at 23.8 ppg (25th). However, New York’s once-stout defense has surrendered 24 points or more in six of the last seven games.
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Philadelphia has won and cashed in the last three meetings of this rivalry, all as an underdog. That includes a 23-11 victory as a four-point road pup in last year’s divisional playoff round, followed by a 40-17 rout on Nov. 1 as a one-point home ‘dog. Prior to Philly’s recent run, New York had cashed in four straight meetings (3-1 SU).
The underdog has covered in 10 consecutive meetings between these two, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the Eagles are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to the Meadowlands. Finally, the SU winner has covered in six straight overall and eight of the last nine matchups.
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The Eagles are on a plethora of pointspread rolls, including 16-7 on the highway, 4-1 in December and 5-2 against NFC foes, though they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven after an ATS win. The Giants sport positive ATS stretches of 23-8 after a spread-cover, 19-7 after a SU win and 8-3 in December. But along with its current 1-6 ATS purge, New York is 1-6 ATS in its last seven against winning teams.
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Philadelphia is on “over” upswings of 9-4 overall and 27-13-1 against winning teams, and New York is on “over” runs of 4-0 in division play and 4-1 against the NFC. However, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings overall and 13 of the last 16 clashes at New York.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
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Cincinnati +6' at MINNESOTA
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For Sunday, the G-Man is taking the points with the underdog Bengals as they look to clinch the AFC North Division with the outright win at the Metrodome.
Don't know if they can get the outright on enemy turf, but Cincy is a perfect 6-0 this season both straight up, and against the spread when installed as the underdog. In fact, the underdog in Cincinnati's games this season is a perfect 12-0 against the spread.
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That is a tough stat to overlook, and catching nearly a touchdown, I won't!
Minnesota came back down to earth last week, as they were handed their hats in a loss at Arizona. In that game, Brett Favre threw a couple of picks, and bascially looked like the 40-year old that he is.
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Under Brad Childress, the Vikings are 0-7 against the spread in the month of December, and January at home, and with all of the injuries starting to mount for the Vikes, I don't see them covering today's game.
G-Man taking the Bengals plus the points.
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2♦ CINCINNATI
Jeff Benton
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Seattle at HOUSTON -7
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Hope you took advantage of Saturday’s easy 4♦ freebie winner with Mississippi State over UCLA. For Sunday’s free play, it’s back to the NFL – where I’m on a 19-9 roll with complimentary releases – and I’ll lay the points with the Texans at home against Seattle.
No question, Houston is reeling, having lost four straight games, all to division rivals and all by close margins (3, 3, 8 and 5 points). The slide has the Texans, who entered the year with aspirations of making the playoffs for the first time in team history, staring at another season of no better than 8-8. Still, even though both these squads are 5-7, there is no comparing these franchises in terms of overall talent and the direction each is heading. The Texans, with QB Matt Schaub, electrifying WR Andre Johnson and wealth of young defensive talent, is set for the future, while Seattle – which has major issues on the offensive line and defensive secondary in particular – is on the brink of rebuilding mode.
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Yes, Seattle is coming off last week’s 20-17 win over the 49ers, but two things about that game: The Seahawks got outgained by a 356-292 margin, and they were playing at home. That last part is real important, because Seattle is just 1-5 SU and ATS on the road, with the victory coming at St. Louis (big whoop). Take away that win over the lowly Rams, and the Seahawks’ other five road games ended in losses by margins of 13, 17, 21, 11 and 26 points. Also, Seattle has been outgained by an average of 102 yards per game on the road and allowed opposing QBs to complete 71 percent of their passes – meaning Schaub and Johnson should have a field day today.
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Going back to last season, the Seahawks are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games, 1-7 ATS in their last eight as an underdog, 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a road ‘dog and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after an outright win. At the same time, the Texans have finished strong the last couple of years, cashing in five of their last seven December contests.
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7♦ HOUSTON
Brian Graves
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St. Louis vs. Tennessee
Pick: Titans -13
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The Titans drive to the playoffs took a wrong turn last week as they had to go to Indianapolis, but that doesn't mean they can't win their 4 and sneak in. With the Steelers and Ravens reeling and the Dolphins and Jags facing off this week the Titans still know that 9-7 has a very good shot of making it into the final spot. That alone should be motivation enough to beat up on a Rams team that just can't score and a defense that gives up big rush yards. Chris Johnson could drop a 30+ game on fantasy leagues all over the country because I can guarantee at least a 50 yard TD run especially with Atogwe out for the Rams. Tennessee wins big 37-10!
SportsInsights
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
After a hugely-profitable week last Sunday, our offshore contacts were very talkative this week. One game that was mentioned by several line-makers was the Jacksonville-Miami match-up. Miami's big win over New England has people talking -- and believing -- that the Dolphins are a solid team. Indeed, about two-thirds of bets are taking the visiting, 6-6 Dolphins, over a 7-5 Jaguars team.
In addition to "betting against the Public" -- there is "reverse line movement" in the NFL marketplace, with CRIS opening at Jax -2.5 and ticking to the key number of Jax -3. This is an indication that "sharps" and "big money" are taking Jacksonville. We like "selling" Miami's big win over New England. Jacksonville, a solid playoff contender, is undervalued at -2 at home.
Jacksonville -2
San Diego Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys
This should be a great game: two first-place teams! This is potentially a playoff preview -- yet the Public is betting this game like they know the score. They can't believe San Diego is getting +3. This shows how the general Public has the philosophy of "what have you done for me lately?" The Chargers have won seven games in a row -- and have one of the league's better point differentials at +100.
On the other hand, Dallas just lost a tough game to their divisional rivals, the New York Giants. We're going to "buy" the Cowboys after their loss and "sell" the Chargers at their recent "high." The Chargers look like they are currently overvalued, with a huge 80% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) landing on the red-hot Chargers. Interestingly, there are indications that "sharps" are also taking the Cowboys. Although the line has stayed at Dallas -3, the odds have shifted slightly from the generally-available opener of Dallas -3 +105 to Dallas -3-110 -- even with almost all the bets going on San Diego. This is a relatively large move because the line is at the key number of 3.
Dallas Cowboys -3
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
This is another battle of first-place teams. The Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre have the headlines this year -- but the Cincinnati Bengals have quietly put up a 9-3 record. One of our contacts alerted us that very early sharp money pushed the point spread from its opener of Minnesota -7 down to Minny -6.5 almost immediately. We don't often see such fast action -- but our readers know that we like to follow the "sharps."
Bets are split almost 50/50 -- but we like the "smart money" and "reverse line movement." In addition, we like the fact that the Bengals have been mostly "under the radar" while the Vikings have been in the headlines constantly all season -- with Brett Favre leading the Vikings to a 10-2 record. We'll take the Bengals, plus a chunk of points, against a Viking team that showed a chink in its armor last week -- with a loss against a solid Arizona team.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5
Bob Balfe
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Chiefs +2 over Bills
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The Bills have a banged up offensive line playing in one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL. The Chiefs matchup well against the Bills Defensive Line. Kansas City cant beat the bad teams, but against their own competition they play well and at home should get a big win. Take Kansas City.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Kansas City Chiefs +2
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After getting completely embarrassed the last 2 weeks, expect the Chiefs to show up at home against a poor Buffalo defense. KC is 8-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons, a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Plus, the revenge factor favors KC as the Chiefs were blown out at home by Buffalo last season and will be looking for a little payback. With all this motivation, I can't see the Chiefs not showing up and getting the job done today.