Kyle Hunter
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -3½
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The Green Bay Packers defense is playing terrific football right now, and quite frankly Jay Cutler and the Bears offense have been very bad. Cutler has 20 interceptions and Green Bay has more interceptions than anyone this year, so unless something changes it could be a really long day for Cutler and the Bears. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack should have success in this one and the Packers will cover and improve their position in the playoff race.
EZWINNERS
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Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -14
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The Ravens lost a heart breaker to Green Bay on Monday Night, but Baltimore is not dead yet as their playoff hopes are still on life support. The Ravens offense did not perform well last week against a solid Green Bay defense, but they should get rolling against a very poor Detroit defense. The Baltimore defense will likely be without safety Ed Reed again this week, but I look for a dominating performance from this group against a Lions offense that will have Daunte Culpepper under center. Lay the points!
Tony Mathews
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St. Louis Rams vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: St. Louis/Tennessee Under 41.5
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With only one straight up win this season, St. Louis has had great difficulty scoring on the road with an average of less than 9 points over their last 6 games. Since QB Kyle Boller is now leading the Rams, there is little room for the possibility to produce consistent drives and scores. Last week against the Bears, Boller showed an abysmal performance with only 3.5 yards per pass attempt. This is bad news for the Rams offense as Tennessee has seen significant improvements to their defense as well as players who are now much healthier. In fact, Tennessee has faced incredible offenses and quarterbacks while playing the under in three straight games.
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With QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson who is having an incredible season thus far, the Titans will focus on the ground game which is key in this matchup. Similarly for St. Louis and star RB Stephan Jackson, the Rams will also be relying on running the ball. This means both teams will be keeping the clock moving (perfect for an "under" the posted total selection).
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When all is said and done, expect this to be a low scoring game!
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Take the St. Louis Rams/Tennessee Titans Under 41.5
Brian Marshall
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Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -13
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The Patriots are now 1-5 on the road after last week’s loss, resulting in two straight defeats. Returning home this week, New England is 6-0 and is in a dire situation for a victory. With this must win situation, we expect New England to put forth every effort in order to achieve a victory. Carolina on the other hand will be careless since their playoff hopes have been all but crushed; they just want to get the season over with at this point.
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When returning home after a road loss over the last two years, the Patriots are 6-0 straight up and against the spread, with an average margin of victory at 35-8.
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Expect the New England offense to excel against a Carolina defense that cannot or has no desire to keep them in check.
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Take the New England Patriots -13
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Jets -3' at TAMPA BAY
With Saturday's winner on Mississippi State on the college hardwood, I'm now on a 25-13 run with my FREE plays. Today's comp winner comes from the pro gridiron as I go witih the Jets to go into Tampa and get it done against the Bucs.
Suddenly the Jets have reason to start believing again and even with starting QB Mark Sanchez out today, they will be able to march into Tampa and get this one rather easily against the Bucs. Go ahead and lay the chalk and watch as the New York defense dominates this one and they leave with a 17-6 victory.
The Jets beat Carolina 17-6 back on Nov. 29 and then four days later went to Toronto and beat Buffalo 19-13. Now they’ve had 10 days off and should be feeling good when they take the field in Florida. They are one game behind in both the AFC East race and the wildcard race.
Kellen Clemens gets the start for New York today but he should get a lot of help from the offensive line and the rushing game as the Tampa defense is 31st in the league against the run, giving up 160.1 yards per game.
The Jets’ defense should have some fun against Tampa rookie QB Josh Freeman who threw five interceptions last week against Carolina, including three inside the Panthers’ 8-yard-line. Freeman has seven TD passes and 10 INTs in five games as the Bucs’ starter.
The Jets are 8-1 all-time against the Bucs but these teams haven’t squared off since 2005. Tampa is just 1-8 ATS at home and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall, while the Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after a spread-cover.
Play New York to get this one with a shutdown defensive effort.
2♦ N.Y. JETS
Stephen Nover
Detroit +14 at BALTIMORE
Nothing has come easy for the Ravens this season. They are extremely banged-up and on a short week. They have lost six of their past nine games and do not deserve to be a two-touchdown favorite in this spot.
Yes, the Ravens are hosting Detroit. Keep in mind, though, the Lions are 10-3-1 against the spread when a road underdog of 10 1/2 or more points.
It's actually better for Detroit that veteran Daunte Culpepper is getting the start ahead of injured rookie Matthew Stafford in such a tough road venue.
Those willing to lay the heavy wood with Baltimore believe Joe Flacco will light up a bad Detroit secondary that has given up eight touchdown passes in the last three weeks. That may be a leap of faith considering Flacco has a 58.9 completion percentage in his last five games averaging 206 yards passing with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of two-to-six.
The Lions baited Carson Palmer into two interceptions last week while covering as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs, 23-13. The Bengals are better than the Ravens.
Flacco may not be passing as much as some think because bad weather may force the Ravens to turn conservative. The forecast calls for rain. Ray Rice hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in his last three games. The Lions are respectable versus the run, ranking 19th.
Flacco isn't expected to have his second-best wide receiver, Mark Clayton. In addition, offensive left tackle Jared Gaither is questionable with a foot injury.
Once again the Ravens don't figure to have star safety Ed Reed. They already are missing cornerbacks Samari Rolle and Fabian Washington. Terrell Suggs, Baltimore's best rusher, is questionable.
The Lions have allowed 41 pass plays of 20 or more yards. But Baltimore has given up 38 passes of 20 or more yards. Calvin Johnson can take advantage of the Ravens' backup defensive backs.
3♦ DETROIT LIONS
Tony Weston
Of course I delivered yesterday as New Mexico takes care of business and I hand you a solid Comp Play winner.
I’m doing it again today as I’m taking the Packers on the road at the Chicago Bears.
When these two hooked up earlier this year the Packers pulled out the 21-15 victory as a 4 1/2 point favorite. That cover made it 3 straight for Green Bay against Chicago.
Coming into this game the Packers are riding a 4-game SU winning streak where they’ve gone 3-0-1 ATS. Green Bay is also 6-2 SU its last 8 games and is 5-2-1 ATS in that stretch.
And now they battle a Bears team that’s riding a 5-game ATS losing streak and has covered just once its last 8 games.
It’ll be a sixth straight non cover as Chicago drops another game to the Packers today.
3♦ PACKERS
Craig Davis
The Bucs should NOT be getting points at home to a one-dimensional team. Sure, the Bucs allow more rushing yards than any team in the NFL, but they also allow more rushes per game than any team in the NFL. Why do you think that is? It's because teams throw all over them in the first half, grab a big lead, and then run, run, and run some more to milk the clock in the second half. I don't see that happening today because the Jets just can't throw. Kellen Clemens replaces Mark Sanchez under center for the Jets, and he might be the worst QB in the NFL. I've seen him play... he's terrible. I imagine the Bucs secondary is trying not to laugh knowing they have to face this QB. So that makes the Jets a complete, run-oriented team... just like Carolina was last week. The Panthers, who were playing at home, scored just 16 points and used a Tampa turnover to set them up with their only TD. Truth be told... I don't trust the Jets on the road... not without a QB. Thomas Jones is a great RB, but he simply can't do it himself. There will be a lot of punts today, trust me. Tampa should be able to use Kellen Winslow to get open over the middle and those short pass plays will be HUGE on third downs. Tampa should play inspired football at home, catching a Jets team that hosts Atlanta next week followed by a trip to Indy. You think they've prepared for this game all that much? I don't. Big look-ahead spot, and I think they come out flat. Play the Bucs, at home, plus the generous number.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
Lenny Del Genio
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DAL -3 vs SDC
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It would be rather easy to justify a selection on the Chargers in this game. San Diego has won seven straight games and will be getting points Sunday afternoon. They are 15-0 SU in the month of December with Philip Rivers at quarterback including eight covers in their last 10 games. Dallas is 5-11 SU in the month of December with Tony Romo at quarterback. The struggles even extend beyond the Romo/Phillips era as the Cowboys are just 3-14-1 ATS their last 18 December games. However, betting is not supposed to be easy. This game, at least in our opinion, means a lot more to the Cowboys than it does to the Chargers. Even though San Diego leads Denver by just one game in the AFC West and is tied with Cincinnati for the second-best record in the conference, their playoff presence is pretty much considered a mere formality at this point. The same cannot be said for Dallas, who is tied for first place with Philadelphia in the NFC East and just one game ahead of the Giants, who swept them this year. Those two teams play this week on Sunday night. Despite what you might think, or what ESPN may say to the contrary, Tony Romo is every bit as good a QB as Philip Rivers, at least statistically speaking. Romo comes off one of the finest efforts of his young career last week where he completed 41 of 55 passes for 379 yards in a loss to the Giants. Over his last seven games, he has a 16-3 TD-INT ratio. The other key in this game will be defense. Dallas has allowed just 15.9 PPG over its last ten contests. They have recorded 29 sacks since Week 2. The Chargers rank 32nd in the league (and there are only 32 NFL teams!) in rushing the ball. Look for Rivers to have an off game and the Cowboys to answer the call. Take Dallas
DUNKEL INDEX
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Green Bay at Chicago
The Packers look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their 14 games as a road favorite. Green Bay is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3)
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Game 105-106: Denver at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 133.520; Indianapolis 139.940
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+7); Under
Game 107-108: Cincinnati at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.952; Minnesota 144.972
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Over
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Game 109-110: NY Jets at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 132.646; Tampa Bay 126.885
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 6; 41
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3); Over
Game 111-112: Buffalo at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.994; Kansas City 129.875
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 6; 34
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 37
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+1); Under
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Game 113-114: Green Bay at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.359; Chicago 128.010
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over
Game 115-116: New Orleans at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 145.308; Atlanta 135.690
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+10 1/2); Over
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Game 117-118: Detroit at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 120.164; Baltimore 131.959
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 13 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+13 1/2); Over
Game 119-120: Miami at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.251; Jacksonville 131.718
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 3 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-2 1/2); Under
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Game 121-122: Carolina at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.538; New England 140.808
Dunkel Line: New England by 8 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 13 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+13 1/2); Over
Game 123-124: Seattle at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.006; Houston 134.456
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick Houston (-6); Over
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Game 125-126: St. Louis at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.252; Tennessee 135.831
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 11 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 13; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+13); Under
Game 127-128: Washington at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.571; Oakland 125.230
Dunkel Line: Washington by 6 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Under
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Game 129-130: San Diego at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.610; Dallas 140.398
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under
Game 131-132: Philadelphia at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.306; NY Giants 131.051
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 1; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+1); Under
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MONDAY, DECEMBER 14
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Game 133-134: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 135.628; San Francisco 134.079
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under
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NBA
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Houston at Toronto
The Rockets look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Houston is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1 1/2)
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Game 701-702: Houston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.987; Toronto 114.675
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 1 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1 1/2); Over
Game 703-704: New Jersey at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 110.386; Atlanta 123.382
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 12 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-12 1/2); Over
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Game 705-706: Memphis at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 115.998; Miami 122.578
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 199
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+7); Under
Game 707-708: Cleveland at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.868; Oklahoma City 121.880
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+3 1/2); Over
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Game 709-710: San Antonio at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.489; LA Clippers 116.833
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+6); Under
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NCAAB
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Villanova at Temple
The Wildcats look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a favorite between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Villanova is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-3)
Game 711-712: Detroit at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 53.800; Michigan 63.598
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 10
Vegas Line: Michigan by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+13 1/2)
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Game 713-714: Central Michigan at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 52.239; South Florida 64.685
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: South Florida by 13
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+13)
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Game 715-716: Western Michigan at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 52.989; Illinois 69.045
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 16
Vegas Line: Illinois by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+17 1/2)
Game 717-718: Wright State at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 60.478; Miami (OH) 57.961
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Wright State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3)
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Game 719-720: Villanova at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 71.901; Temple 63.284
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 3
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-3)
Game 721-722: Fordham at St. John's
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 44.672; St. John's 66.501
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 22
Vegas Line: St. John's by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+22 1/2)
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Game 723-724: UL-Monroe at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 48.031; North Texas 56.973
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 9
Vegas Line: North Texas by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+12 1/2)
Game 725-726: Illinois-Chicago at DePaul
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 51.253; DePaul 62.202
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 11
Vegas Line: DePaul by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-6 1/2)
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Game 727-728: Rhode Island at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 62.391; Boston College 69.218
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 7
Vegas Line: Boston College by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-4 1/2)
Game 729-730: Cincinnati at Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 63.956; Xavier 76.300
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-3 1/2)
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Game 731-732: New Mexico State at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 53.182; UTEP 64.783
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+16 1/2)
Game 733-734: UC Davis at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 45.418; Stanford 66.638
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 21
Vegas Line: Stanford by 17
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-17)
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Game 735-736: Princeton at NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 49.050; NC Greensboro 46.651
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: NC Greensboro by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+2 1/2)
Game 737-738: Elon at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 44.764; Wake Forest 68.134
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 23
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-23)
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Game 739-740: Niagara at Illinois State
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 57.276; Illinois State 67.374
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 10
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-6)
Game 741-742: Furman at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 47.158; Clemson 73.221
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 26
Vegas Line: Clemson by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-21 1/2)
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Game 743-744: Portland State at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 54.570; Pepperdine 50.608
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 4
Vegas Line: Portland State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-1)
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Game 745-746: UC-Riverside at Northern Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 56.080; Northern Arizona 50.341
Dunkel Line: UC-Riverside by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Riverside by 2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (-2)
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NHL
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Calgary at Colorado
The Flames look to bounce back from a 2-1 overtime loss to Minnesota and build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Calgary is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110)
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Game 51-52: Tampa Bay at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.924; Chicago 11.504
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-225); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+205); Under
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Game 53-54: Calgary at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.037; Colorado 11.993
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110); Under
JIM FEIST
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / NEW YORK GIANTS
TAKE: UNDER
Weather update: 37 degrees, 6 MPH winds, 80% chance rain. New Jersey weather: .5?Sunday could see a wintry mix in some areas that will turn into rain, with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s..5? Philadelphia (8-4 SU/7-5 ATS) has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but has been up and down on offense. QB Donovan McNabb (16 TDs, 6 picks) had little trouble carving up the Falcons Sunday with 238 passing yards in a 34-7 rout. They are sitting pretty for a postseason berth. The Eagles are showing some balance, as RB LeSean McCoy has 99 and 76 yards in consecutive games. This offense ranks 11th, and 27 points per game, while the aggressive defense (8th) has been great under new defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. The Eagles are 3-8-1 in their last 12 games decided by a touchdown or less, including 1-2 this year. Philly is 8-4 over the total. The (7-5 SU/6-6 ATS) NY Giants are a tough team to figure out, loaded with talent but on a 2-5 SU/1-6 ATS skid. They have the No. 4 ranked defense and a balanced offense ranked 7th. QB Eli Manning (20 TDs, 11 INTs) has been bothered by a bruised heal and he has 9 picks the last six games. But at least they finally played up to their talent with a 31-24 win over rival Dallas Sunday, overcoming a 10-0 deficit. It was a huge win to get them back in the Wild Card race, though the defense allowed 424 yards. It doesn.5?t get any easier this week. Against Denver, a 26-6 defeat, Manning struggled by throwing high and wide of receivers. The Giants have been playing from behind a lot during their skid, so the ground game has been less effective. The Giants have only surpassed 30 carries in a game four times this season, three in the first four games (only 23 Sunday in beating Dallas). Over their past seven games, the Giants are averaging 24 rushing attempts and 99 yards per game. New defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan has yet to put his stamp on the defense and the unit has looked lost at times. Denver picked up 138 rushing yards, Dallas 379 passing yards. The secondary has struggled, as C.C. Brown was an absolute disaster for three weeks before being replaced by Aaron Rouse. Both defenses are above average and with the weather conditions looking to be on the poor side, look for more controlled running and less throwing. That translates to this game going UNDER the total
LT Profits
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Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots
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People keep waiting for the New England Patriots to explode, but the fact is that they are an overrated team this season that will only win the AFC East by default, while the Carolina Panthers looked a bit better last week with Matt Moore at quarterback instead of turnover-prone Jake Delhomme.
Besides the performances of these teams on the field, there is also some disarray in Patriot Land, as four players including Randy Moss were sent home earlier this week for being late to a team meeting.
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In past years, this would have been a blowout alert for New England coming off a loss, but this simply not the same team. In fact, people expect the Pats to blow out Miami last week after their embarrassing Monday night performance against the New Orleans Saints, and yet the offense imploded in the fourth quarter of their 22-21 loss in Miami.
The fact is, the Patriots have a losing 5-6-1 ATS mark, and they have not blown anyone out since a 59-0 rout over a Tennessee Titans team that was in the midst of an 0-6 start. It no longer appears that the Patriots can turn it on with a flip of the switch as in past years.
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Now the Panthers beat a bad Tampa Bay Buccaneers team last week, but the Bucs have been more competitive with Josh Freeman at QB, so Carolina does deserve credit for their defensive performance. Now the offense was not that explosive, but Moore did not make any mistakes either, and his task would be made easier here by another nice performance by the rushing tandem of Jonathan Stewart (126 yards last week) and DeAngelo Williams (back this week).
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We do feel that the Panthers will be able to move the chains vs. a sometimes shaky New England defense, as we think they will be able to control the ball and shorten this game enough to cover this nearly two touchdown spread.
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Pick: Panthers +13
Chris Jordan
New Orleans -10 at ATLANTA
Have to believe we're going to see an outburst of offense between NFC South rivals.
Let's start with this amazing New Orleans team, which continues to live by nine lives, and has shown its Indy-like tendencies by storming back in any situation. Like last week, when it struggled against Washington and trailed by 10 on three occasions before rallying to win 33-30 in overtime.
Simply put, the Saints have the most dominating offense in the NFL. The Colts may argue that point, but Drew Brees has so many weapons to throw to, you're going to see this today being this one is being played in the comfort of the Georgia Dome.
And since the Falcons have been giving up points in droves the past seven outings, allowing 28 or more five times, with four teams scoring 34 points or more, it's a given the Saints will light up the scoreboard.
I'm not so sure I want to lay the road points though, as there have been too many close calls for the Saints, including the first meeting, a 35-27 home victory Nov. 2, when it failed to cover as an 11-point favorite.
The over has been the play the last four meetings.
With New Orleans the over is on winning streaks of 22-10-1 overall, 10-1 in December, 18-7 after a straight-up win and 37-18-1 against intra-conference foes.
With the Dirty Birds, it's much of the same, as they're on over sprees of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a losing straight-up, 9-3 within the NFC, 6-2 inside the NFC South and 7-3 in December.
This one goes high
3♦ SAINTS/FALCONS OVER
Dominic Fazzini
New Orleans -10 at ATLANTA
I cruised to another win with my complimentary selection Saturday, taking the Kings to hammer Minnesota at home. That gave me 40 wins in my last 64 free plays, including a current run of 23-11! And don't think for a second that my hot streak is over, because it's not.
I'm really starting to believe the Saints are going to go 16-0 after their amazing 33-30 overtime win over Washington last weekend. All New Orleans did in that game was overcome three 10-point deficits, turn a Drew Brees interception into a 44-yard fumble-return touchdown by Robert Meachem in the final minute of the first half, watch Shaun Suisham miss a 23-yard field-goal try with 1:52 left that likely would have clinched the victory for the Redskins and have Washington lose a fumble in overtime to set up the Saints for the game-winning score.
Is this a team of destiny? I guess we'll find out.
But there's no doubt that New Orleans is a talented, dangerous team that is a definite Super Bowl contender. And now the Saints get to face a division rival in Atlanta that is seriously banged up, especially on offense.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner missed most of practice this week with injuries and probably won't play today, and four other offensive starters -- three linemen and standout receiver Roddy White -- are questionable for today's game.
The Atlanta defense is horrible against the pass, allowing 254.7 yards per game to rank 29th, and Brees should have no problem exploiting that weakness.
The Saints failed to cover as an 11-point home favorite against the Falcons on Nov. 2, but still won 35-27 despite having four turnovers in that game. I seriously doubt New Orleans is going to have that many mistakes today, so if Atlanta fails to take care of the ball, things could get really ugly.
New Orleans is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games overall, 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games, 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 7-15-1 ATS as a home underdog. Take the Saints to roll by at least two touchdowns today.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS
Michael Cannon
Denver at INDIANAPOLIS -6'
I’m now 43-29-1 with my last 73 overall free plays.
Take the Colts as the home chalk over the Broncos.
There’s too much to play for here for Indianapolis. They can wrap up home-field advantage for the playoffs and set an NFL record for consecutive regular-season wins.
Don’t think for a minute that Peyton Manning isn’t aware of both scenarios. He has put this team on his back and carried them all season long and I’m not about to doubt him now. Not against a Denver team that has shown some flaws after such a surprising start.
I know the Broncos are coming off consecutive wins. But they were exposed against some of the better teams in the league and they won’t have enough to keep Manning grounded today.
Indy has won the last three meetings with Denver both SU and ATS. The Colts are on other pointspread runs of 3-1 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in December.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 2-9 in road games against teams with a winning home record, 1-4 in December and 3-6 on the road after a SU win.
Take the Colts minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ INDIANAPOLIS