Drew Gordon
Detroit +14 at BALTIMORE
21-10-1 roll L32 Free Plays, incl. Wisconsin over Marquette 72-63 Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Lions/Ravens match up.
I know, I know, the Lions are woeful 2-10 SU & 3-8-1 ATS this season, so backing them takes a certain fortitude. However, in this spot, I see them presenting tremendous value against an overated Baltimore team playing very inconsistent football right now.
Ravens are averaging 16 ppg on 310 total yards over their L3 games, which is far worse than the Lions over the same stretch, averaging 21 ppg on 330 total yards! True, Mattew Stafford will not play, but Culpepper is more than capable of leading this Lions offense to the cover, using dink-and-dunk passing to move the chains. Remember guys, don't make the mistake of overreacting to the QB change, as the injury has already been factored in. It's the Ravens offense you have to wonder about, especially when Detroit's defense allowing just 3.0 yards per carry over their L3 games!
While I fully expect the Ravens to get the bounce back win here (SU), I just don't see them being able to cover the bloated number... Same thing that happened against Pittsburgh, same thing that happened against Cincinnati. Joe Flacco just isn't getting it done, posting a QB rating of 75 or less in 3 of his L5 starts, incl. a 27 QB rating at Green Bay last week. He'll have his chances against this Detroit D, but can he make the best of them? I say no.
Bottom line, this is not the same Ravens team we saw in the early season... So don't make the mistake of betting them like they are! Right now, there's no question Baltimore is underachieving, as their defense has been ho-hum (20 ppg allowed L3 games), and their offense is struggling mightily. Laying this many with the Ravens is out of the question at this point, even vs. the Lions.
Take Detroit plus the points over Baltimore in this NFL match up.
2♦ DETROIT
Steve Duemig
San Diego at DALLAS
For today, let's take a look at the Dallas-Philly game. Early action on the total here as it has moved up a point, but these two teams love to throw the football and I don't anticipate much more movement in this price.
Dallas threw it 55 times in a tough loss to the Giants last week as Romo passed for a personal-best 392 yards and tight end Jason Whitten had a career-day with 14 catches for 156 yards. If the Cowboys continue to throw it like - and with San Diego's Philip Rivers, who has completed 65 percent of his passes for 32 TDs in his last 16 games, expected to join the aerial show today, this game will fly by the posted total.
1♦ DALLAS-SAN DIEGO OVER
OC Dooley
Jets / Buccaneers UNDER 37
One of the keys to this total has to do with the Jets decision to start Kellen Clemens at quarterback instead of the injured Mark Sanchez who suffered a knee injury while rushing the football last time on the field. The last time that Clemens actually started a game was back in December of 2007 when the Jets were involved in a very low scoring 13-10 contest. Last week the Jets called 21 runs and 18 passes with Sanchez at quarterback, but 17 runs against only 7 passes when Clemens came into the game. Since New York leads the league in average rush yards per game (168) they will be encouraged to RUN the football against a Tampa stop-unit ranked way down at #31 in the NFL when attempting to defend the rush. This has been a season of highs and lows for New York who started off 3-0 out of the gate before going on a 1-6 skid. To make a long story short the Jets have climbed back into the playoff chase with consecutive triumphs where the DEFENSE has permitted a grand total of only 19 combined points. Those stellar efforts have to please head coach Rex Ryan who made a name for himself as Baltimore’s very successful defensive coordinator and he has brought that personality with him to Gotham. As for Tampa Bay they have actually played much better DEFENSIVELY the last two games since rookie head coach Raheem Morris took the “play calling” responsibility. Prior to his NFL arrival, Morris served as a defensive coordinator at Kansas State and obviously is very familiar with that side of the football. For those of you who watched last week’s game at Carolina, the lowly Buccaneers actually should have won that game going away as the defense was solid in a 16-6 final verdict. Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman was picked off FIVE times in that contest with most of those interceptions coming right around or inside Carolina’s 20-yard line. The statistic that most caught my attention last week was the 92 rush yards churned out by the oft-injured Cadillac Williams which is going to encourage Tampa Bay to RUN the football more often, especially since they have a mistake-prone quarterback under center. Turning to the database I see that the Jets are an eye-opening 9-1 UNDER the total when off consecutive contests where they successfully covered the spread as a favorite. But the big news here is a whopping 83-PERCENT SYSTEM (24-5 since 1983 with a posted total between 35’-and-42 points) which takes teams like the Jets off consecutive games where the defense allowed less than 251 total yards against an opponent after outgaining the opposition by at least 150 total yards in the prior outing. That 24-4 long term system favors the UNDER even though this game is being played in a warm weather site
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +6½ over MIAMI
The Grizzlies are really playing some decent ball right now with three wins in its last four with only loss over that stretch coming at Ok City by eight. Memphis has re4cent wins over Dallas, Cleveland and in Portland and that’s a very mice looking trifecta. This is a dangerous intruder, as they’re loaded with both big men and shooters and they should be able to dominate the boards again. The Heat are hit and miss. They can look so strong one night and absolutely miserable the next. Thing is, they’ve had trouble all year against good strong rebounding teams and the Grizz most definitely qualify. Miami is just 6-6 at home, they’ve won just two of its last seven and they just don’t warrant being a 6½ point favorite over a up and coming team from the West. Play: Memphis +6½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
TORONTO/Houston over 203
Contrary to what some may believe and unlike years gone by the Rockets love to run. They’ll play a defensive game when its called for and against other teams that play defense but give them the chance to run and gun and they’ll welcome it. Case in point is some recent games they’ve played. At Golden State the Rockets and Warriors combined to hit 220. Against Sac, the two teams combined for 219 and against Dallas, the final score read 130-99. Each of the Rockets last four games has gone under but that came against Portland, Cleveland and Philly. Now we get a decent total to go over because of those last three and the Raps are perhaps the best team in the league to play over on. The Raps defense is a complete grease-fire. They do not defend against anyone or anything. A well-coached team like the Rockets will exploit every defensive weakness the Raps possess and there are a ton of those. The Raps can also score. They’ve never seen a shot they didn’t like and they seldom use up the clock when they’re on offense. This one might go over about four minutes into the fourth. Play: Toronto/Houston over 203 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Cal Riverside –2½ over Northern Arizona
Give credit to Northern Arizona for scheduling competitive non-conference teams. While other Division I teams pad their win totals against embarrassing opponents, Northern Arizona took their medicine to the tune of two wins in the first seven games. Riverside hasn’t played a difficult schedule but has taken care of business, beating weak teams easily while shooting 37.8% from three. The key to this matchup will be the ease in which Riverside will score, as Northern Arizona allows opponents to shoot an unacceptable 58.6% from inside the line and blocks a measly 4.6% of total shots. Riverside isn’t a dominant offensive team but is competent enough to exploit this weakness. The strong three-point numbers are complemented by a strong offensive rebound percentage and strong offensive efficiency. The only reason this line isn’t in the 6-8 range is because Northern Arizona is playing at home and Riverside hasn’t played since December 3rd but don’t let that deter you from playing the road squad. This disparity in talent between these two teams is simply too large ignore. Play: UC Riverside –2½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
John Ryan
St Louis Rams vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -13
The Titans had an incredible pair of streaks this season and despite all but being eliminated from play-off contention the team still has the personal pride of going 8-8 this season. They could still make a 9-7 mark, but would need an incredible amount of help to attain a play-off spot. This game would make them 6-7 and I also see them winning on the last week of the season in Seattle. The back to back games against San Diego and Miami are very tough, but they could win them and move to a remarkable 9-7 after an 0-6 start. Jacksonville is in the 6th slot in the conference at 7-5 and have 3 very tough games. First, they face Miami then the Colts at home, then finish the last 2 games on the road with New England and Cleveland. I think 2 and 2 would be very good. So, the Titans still have a lot to play for. Supporting this 3* graded play is a system that has gone 39-16 ATS for 71% winners over the past 10 seasons. Play on December favorites off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. Simple enough and proven enough. Tennessee is also a perfect 6-0 ATS versus poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Rams are a poor 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Titan’s HC Fisher is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of the Titans. The biggest weapon for the Titan is of course Chris Johnsons and the OL, who will be matched up against the 28th worst rushing defense in the league. I expect that Vince Young may not attempt 20 passes in this game and Johnson may have 35 attempts on his own merit. This is certainly a game where he could exceed 200 rushing yards. Take the Titans Big.
BEN BURNS
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Over 39
This total has come down a little from its opener and there are now some 39s available. I feel that provides us with some value on the 'over.'
Yes, the Ravens saw Monday's game slip below the total. However, that game still produced 41 combined points, enough to eclipse this afternoon's lower number, and if you watched that game, you know it could have easily been higher-scoring. Not only did the normally reliable Crosby miss a fairly easy field goal but there were some turnovers in the red zone. Most notably, midway through the fourth quarter, the Ravens got a first and goal on the two-yard line but failed to record a point. This afternoon, they'll face a much weaker defense and I expect them to score considerably more points.
The Ravens are averaging a healthy 25.2 points and 379.3 yards per game at home, the Lions are allowing a whopping 33.5 points and 406 yards per game on the road.
While Baltimore should put up some big numbers, the Lions should be able to score a few themselves. They're averaging a respectable 21 points over their last three games. Of course, those numbers are inflated due to the big offensive outburst (38-37) vs. Cleveland - I had the 'over' in that one. Still, they've reached double-digits in six straight games.
Speaking of that Cleveland game, including that result, the Lions have seen the 'over' go a highly profitable 10-1 their last 11 vs. teams from the AFC. They've also seen the 'over' go 8-2-1 (6-1 on the road) the last 11 times that they played a game with an o/u line ranging from 35.5 to 42. During the same stretch, the Ravens have seen the 'over' go 16-9-1 when playing a game with a total in the same range. Consider the OVER
LARRY NESS
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -13.5
The Lions famously concluded last season by becoming the NFL's first-ever 0-16 team. Detroit has won twice at home in 2009 (Lions have beaten Washington and Cleveland) but the team has lost all six road games, extending the team's road losing streak to 19 in a row. The Lions last won away from home in late October of the 2007 season at Chicago. Opponents' average margin of victory during Detroit's current road slide is almost 20 PPG and this year, the Lions have allowed 33.5 PPG to their opponents on the road. After scoring 51 points in their first two road defeats of 2009, Detroit has managed just 43 points (10.8 PPG) in its last four road losses. The Ravens are just 6-6 entering this Week 14 game but the good news is that their remaining four games are against the 2-10 Lions and the 5-7 Bears here at home, then at the slumping Steelers (Pittsburgh's lost five straight!) and the 4-8 Raiders. Baltimore is 10-4 SU (9-4-1 ATS) in home games under Harbaugh and Baltimore's defense should love seeing the over-the-hill Daunte Culpepper in this game. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford will rest an injury to his non-throwing shoulder giving Culpepper the start. Baltimore needs its QB, Joe Flacco, to get things turned around. The second-year player threw 12 TDs with just five interceptions in his first seven games (95.6 QB rating) but is coming off his worst game of the season on Monday night. He was just 15-of-36 for 137 yards with one TD and three INTs. He now has just two TD passes, six INTs and a 67.0 passer rating over his last five games. However, Detroit's pass D should be "just what the doctor ordered." The Lions rank dead-last in the NFL allowing 275 YPG through the air, giving up 69.7% completions with 28 TDs allowed and just eight INTs. Opposing QBs have posted a passer rating of 108.5 vs Detroit, the highest of any team. Lay it with the Ravens.
Tom Freese
New Mexico St. at Texas-El Paso
Prediction: Texas-El Paso
UTEP beat New Mexico St 79-58 on December 1. There is no reason why it will be any different in the rematch tonight. UTEP is 9-1 ATS their last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less in their last game. The Miners are 13-3 ATS off 3 straight double digit wins and they are 22-10-1 ATS their last 33 games vs. a team with a win perecentage of under 40%. New Mexico St is 9-20 ATS their last 29 games as underdogs and they are 10-28-1 ATS their last 39 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Aggies are 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall and they are 3-15 ATS their last their last 18 games vs. the Miners. PLAY ON UTEP -
Jack Jones
Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -13
Lot of points here but I'll lay them as I think the Patriots are going to try to make a statement after back-to-back losses.
Carolina is scoring only 17.9 ppg against teams that allow 21.9 ppg and they are giving up 23 to teams that score 22.2. Basically this means that the team is not that good.
New England scores 32.5 ppg at home against teams that give up only 21.3 and they allow 14.3 against teams that normally score 22.5. This is a top-level team, especially at home.
Carolina was lucky to win last week against Tampa Bay and they aren't going to get 4 picks against Tom Brady today in the end zone like they did last week against Freeman. This one has blowout written all over it.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +1
While Oakland could be in letdown mode after a big win over Pittsburgh, I can't see it having as hard a time getting up for this one as Washington, which endured a heartbreaking overtime defeat to New Orleans in a game it never should have lost. Washington is 0-6 on the road this season and it faces a Raiders team playing its best ball of the year, with big wins over Cincy and Pittsburgh in 2 of its last 3 games. Washington is just 1-8 ATS versus the AFC the last 3 seasons. Plus, we have a very strong system in play here that tells us to play against favorites after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record, as doing so has produced a 25-3 ATS record the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that this system is 3-0 this season. Take the Raiders for 1 Unit.
John Ryan
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Cleveland vs. Oklahoma City
Play: Cleveland -3½=
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Cleveland as they take on Oklahoma City set to start at 7:05 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Cleveland will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 99-57 ATS since 1996. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and are excellent shooting teams >=47.5% going up against an average defensive team allowing a shooting percentage of 43.5-45.5%. HC Brown is a solid 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) against Northwest division opponents as the coach of Cleveland. Take Cleveland.