Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 15

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

New Orleans at Denver
The Nuggets look to bounce back from their 103-93 loss to Utah on Friday as they host a New Orleans team that is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games. Denver is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6)

Game 801-802: Houston at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.963; Sacramento 113.997
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 9; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 803-804: Minnesota at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 114.970; Memphis 120.236
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3); Over

Game 805-806: Portland at Detroit (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 123.676; Detroit 124.260
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 4; 207
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+4); Over

Game 807-808: Orlando at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 110.009; Oklahoma City 132.776
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 23; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 13; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-13); Under

Game 809-810: New Orleans at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.824; Denver 125.145
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 9 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 205
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6); Under

Game 811-812: Golden State at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 116.641; Phoenix 122.912
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 1; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1); Over

NHL

Los Angeles at Chicago
The Kings head to Chicago following a 5-2 win over Ottawa yesterday and look to build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Los Angeles is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+125)

Game 51-52: Philadelphia at Washington (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.492; Washington 11.848
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Detroit (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.024; Detroit 10.105
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Over

Game 55-56: Florida at Montreal (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.784; Montreal 12.429
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-200); Under

Game 57-58: Calgary at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.660; NY Rangers 9.191
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+165); Over

Game 59-60: Los Angeles at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.666; Chicago 11.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+125); Over

Game 61-62: Edmonton at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.935; Anaheim 12.569
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-210); Under

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

LaSalle at Villanova
The Wildcats host a LaSalle team today that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 non-conference games. Villanova is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 22. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-13)

Game 813-814: Syracuse at St. John's (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 70.690; St. John's 68.534
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+4 1/2)

Game 815-816: Wright State at Miami (OH) (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 54.752; Miami (OH) 50.310
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Wright State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-1 1/2)

Game 817-818: LaSalle at Villanova (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 56.802; Villanova 78.685
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 22
Vegas Line: Villanova by 13
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-13)

Game 819-820: UC-Santa Barbara at San Diego (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 60.758; San Diego 59.560
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 1
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1
Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (+1)

Game 821-822: Troy at Kansas State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 46.339; Kansas State 66.336
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 20
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-14 1/2)

Game 823-824: Western Michigan at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 53.426; Missouri 65.907
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri by 15
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+15)

Game 825-826: Pepperdine at Washington State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 47.610; Washington State 65.025
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (-9 1/2)

Game 827-828: Northeastern at Fairfield (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 54.847; Fairfield 53.826
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 1
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+3 1/2)

Game 829-830: Marist at College of Charleston (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 41.868; College of Charleston 56.461
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (-10 1/2)

Game 831-832: Manhattan at NC-Wilmington (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 55.867; NC-Wilmington 54.994
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 1
Vegas Line: Manhattan 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+4 1/2)

Game 833-834: Bowling Green at Morehead State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 52.302; Morehead State 54.058
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+6 1/2)

Game 835-836: Drexel at Davidson (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 60.529; Davidson 57.673
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 3
Vegas Line: Drexel by 1
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-1)

Game 837-838: Wyoming at Denver (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 57.989; Denver 58.853
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+3 1/2)

Game 839-840: UC-Irvine at Eastern Washington (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 59.737; Eastern Washington 55.333
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Irvine by 1
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (-1)

Game 841-842: Montana State at Portland (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 43.493; Portland 60.054
Dunkel Line: Portland by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-14 1/2)

Game 843-844: Georgia Southern at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 47.975; UAB 60.772
Dunkel Line: UAB by 13
Vegas Line: UAB by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+15 1/2)

Game 851-852: Chicago State at DePaul (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago State 47.095; DePaul 57.812
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: DePaul by 14
Dunkel Pick: Chicago State (+14)

Dave Essler

Oakland +4.5

IMO the Redskins made the Chiefs look better than they are last week (not to mention the travel from Washington to Oakland) and the fact is the Chiefs are somewhere between who the WERE and who they ARE as far as expectations go. Yes, Oakland lost to the Jets, but IMO the Jets are just one of those teams capable of great things or implosion at any time, and of course it was an early gaem on the East Coast for the Raiders, and in the cold. If Pryor is playing that does give the Raiders an fighting chance. They've got a reasonable defense, and with Kansas City perhaps one of the more conservative offenses, I simply don't see them running away with this game and am not over reacting the Chiefs rout of Washington. If the Chiefs were beaten or it was a close game, and the Raiders hadn't been beat down in New York, this line might be under -3, so I'll gladly take what I perceive as a number that's not as close to reality and far more based on recent events. Most lines are (based on recent events).

Art Aronson

Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta

This game would have been top billing last season but is far off the radar this year with injuries and poor play has made it dog of a matchup. The Washington Redskins come off a 10-45 loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs to sit at 3-10 SU and ATS. The Atlanta Falcons come off a narrow 21-22 loss at Green Bay to move to 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS. While these teams’ records are the same its obvious that the Falcons are the better team here and should easily cover this spread. Atlanta has covered the spread in three straight games now and is showing some life. The Falcons won last year’s meeting 24-17 in Washington. The Redskins have lost five in a row and failed to cover the spread in any of those games. With Mike Shanahan looking to be on the chopping block and things in chaos with RG3 comments I don’t see this team as prepared as it should be. Lay the points with Atlanta.

Nick Parsons

Kansas City vs. Oakland
Pick: Under

Last week I recommended a play on the "under" between the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams, stating that divisional contests were always the toughest and almost always "mean more" to the home side.

However, with last week's 37-27 loss at the New York, the Raiders have now been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, and I expect that disappointment to weigh heavily on the team's collective psyche.

Conversely, the Chiefs are rolling again after a commanding 45-10 performance in Washington last week; there's no reason not to expect another dominant defensive effort vs. this down-and-out Oakland side.

The total has gone "under" the number in four of these teams last five in the series ("pushed" in the other), and I believe that the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest once again points to a lower-scoring affair between these divisional foes.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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N.Y. Jets vs. CarolinaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Did you know that non-conference games have been going Over w/ great regularity this season? Well, they have. The official tally is 44 of 58 have gone Over this year, including 3-1 last week.
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The Jets exploded for 37 points in a win and cover over the Raiders last week. While not a non-conference game, it was the most points the team scored in any contest all season. The 209 yards passing were actually the most since Week 4. While this Jets offense hardly inspires a lot of confidence on the road, remember what I talked about last week w/ a record amount of scoring currently taking place league-wide. This year has seen an average of 46 points scored per game, which would be an all-time high. Last week's games saw more total points scored (859) than any other week in NFL history. The average Over cashed by nearly nine points per game w/ 11 of 16 games producing winning Over tickets.
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In other words, this total is too low.
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Carolina is also due for an Over. They own the league's longest Under streak at six straight games and are also the league's top Under team at 9-3-1 for the year. But take note that the Jets are 3-0 Over this season on the road when the total falls between 38.5 and 42 points.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay vs. DallasFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DallasFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas struggled in the elements at Soldier Field, something that I thought they might be able to overcome. Playing in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium in Arlington against a deflated Packers team should yield a completely different result for the Cowboys.
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Aaron Rodgers has still not been cleared to play, and the Packers are looking at starting Matt Flynn once again in Dallas. You might remember that Flynn was 10-for-20 for 139 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception in a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Lions, in his last start on the road.
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Even if Rodgers is able to return, this was always going to be a tough game against a Dallas team that is 5-1 at home. The Cowboy's only home defeat came at the hands of Denver, in a 51-48 shootout.
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DeMarco Murray ran for a whopping 145 yards on just 18 carries in the loss to Chicago, and he's facing a Packers defense that has really struggled to defend the run (25th in the NFL, allowing over 122 yards per game).
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There is every reason to think that the Cowboys can get back on track at home, and I think they win this game regardless of who's under center for the visitors.

Carlo CampanellaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta FalconsFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington Redskins +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redskins (3-10) have announced that QB Kirk Cousins will start in place of injured QB RG3 in Atlanta this Sunday and expect the team to rally behind him just as they did last season during their Playoff run when QB Griffin was injured. QB Cousins was also a rookie last season, but was solid in his 3 games, completing 33 of 48 passes (68.8%) for 466 passing yards and 4 TDs! It might be the spark the offense needs to "wake up," especially since QB Griffin was having issues with both HC Shanahan and the offensive coordinator. The Falcons (3-10) are having troubles of their own as well, losing 6 of their last 7 games and are surprisingly not in the Playoff hunt. Without QB Griffin the line of this game has risen to almost a TD and we're expecting QB Cousins to take this time to show the rest of the NFL that he can be a starter in this league.

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Seahawks vs. GiantsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Giants +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Alot of teams get banged up after playing a very physical SF 49ers team. It must be noted that the Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS L/10 after facing their rivals the 49ers. Seattle lost a hard fought and closely contested 19-17 battle to the Niners last Sunday, and should be in a bit of a letdown situation this week and start slowly vs a desperate and hungry NY Giants side. Add to that the Seahawks have failed to cover 9 of their L/11 as road favs off a division battle. Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.

Strike Point SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City / Oakland Over 41FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chiefs defense has been dominant for the most part this season, but currently Kansas City is scoring points to make this total number look short. The Chiefs are averaging 37 points per game over their last three. And prior to last weekend’s game against Washington, KC allowed each of those last three opponents to score at least 27 points. Oakland has shown it can move the ball and score this season, whether it is with Terrelle Pryor or Matt McGloin. In Oakland I see the Raiders making this a competitive game in the 20s and forcing the Chiefs to earn every bit of a win if they are to leave the Bay Area with the victory. In their last game the Raiders allowed 37 points to a lesser talented Jets team, so there is good reason to be confident in Kansas City scoring at least 24 points if not more. These two go over the posted total, 27-21 to the road Chiefs.

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New Orleans (-6) over St. LouisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There’s not a team in the NFL who looks as different on the road compared to how they play at home than these New Orleans Saints. The Saints are world-beaters at home, arguably the best team in the NFL as not only are they 7-0 inside their home dome but they are 6-0-1 ATS in those games as well winning by over 17 points per game. These aren’t cheap wins, either, with some quality victories over some good teams such as beating Carolina by 18, San Francisco by 3, Dallas by 32, and Arizona by 24 points.
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The St. Louis Rams have little to play for at just 5-8 overall on the season. Head coach Jeff Fisher usually keeps games close, but that hasn’t been the case with this year’s Rams squad as they have been beat by an average of 14 points per game this season and have failed to cover seven of their last nine games against teams from the NFC.
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The key here in this play is the fact that this game will feel more like a home game for the Saints as it’s indoors inside a dome; exactly what New Orleans is built to play in. As you can see from above, the Saints are very difficult to beat in this type of environment. Take New Orleans minus the points here. I

Marc Lawrence

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Pick: Miami Dolphins

And down goes Gronk. As rewarding as the Pats’ comeback win over the Browns was for New England last Sunday, the loss of all-world TE Rob Gronkowski to a blown knee was absolutely devastating. Consider: according to the BOSTON GLOBE, over the first six games of the season without Gronk, Brady was 136 of 239, a completion percentage of just 56.9. From Game Seven heading into last week’s contest with Cleveland, he was 150 for 232, or 64.7 percent. Without Gronkowski available, and with Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan as the only tight ends, just 6.7 percent of Brady’s attempts went to players at the position. Since then, it’s 26.3 percent of his attempts, almost exclusively going to Gronkowski. In the first six games of the season, Brady was averaging 6.2 yards per passing attempt, which would have been the lowest of his career, and over the last six that number has spiked to 7.7 YPA, much closer to where he’s been since 2007. New England had seen a big improvement in red-zone efficiency, with just nine touchdowns in 22 opportunities (40.9 percent) pre-Gronkowski, and 19 touchdowns in 28 opportunities (67.9 percent) post, and also in points per game – 20.8 without the All-Pro in the lineup, 32.8 PPG with him. Get the picture? Today the Patriots take a 3-game division lead into South Beach against a hungry Miami team currently tied at 7-6 with Baltimore for the 6th and final playoff spot, but on the outside looking in with the Ravens holding the tiebreaker. Yes, the Dolphins must overcome the dreaded post Pittsburgh Tomlin-syndrome, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after Steelers skirmishes, but we’ll look instead to their 6-0-1 ATS home dog log of late. Tom Brady’s 41-8 SU career mark in games during the final four games is scary, but not as bad as the X-rays of Gronk’s knee… if you get our drift. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Bill Biles

Eagles / Vikings Over 51

The Eagles can put up the points in the snow imagine what they will do indoors and on turf. Look for the Eagles to at least score 31 points in this one, and the Vikings have been able to score some points lately so this one should sail over the total.

Ray Monohan

San Francisco 49ers -5

Having just beaten Seattle last week the 49ers should be flying high against Tampa. They have won their last three game and even though Colin Kaepernick’s numbers weren't great against the Seahawks he has been playing much better the last month. Tampa has won 4 of their last 5 but when they played an elite defense a couple of weeks ago against Carolina they had no answers. I think it will be more of the same against the 49ers on Sunday. Easy victory for San Fran.