Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Falcons are back home after playing 5 of 7 games away from Atlanta. This is a team that has lost 9 of 11 games in straight up fashion. The two victories coming in overtime against Buffalo and against winless at the time Tampa Bay. Going back to preseason the Falcons are 3-14 SU but are laying a full touchdown here. A team that was the number one seed in the NFC Playoffs a season ago. A team that has a 0.1 yards per play advantage in this game. With a less than enthusiastic home crowd how can this line be a full touchdown?
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Washington is playing lousy football and there is turmoil in the locker room. But the same thing was said about the Dolphins over a month ago and look how that has turned out. The switch at quarterback moved this line a full 1 1/2 points away from the Redskins. Why is the quarterback change a negative? Under RGIII the Skins have scored an average of 12.3 points per game the last four contests. The change at QB isn't a negative it's a positive. There are many in this locker room who tired of the RGIII show and are excited to play with a true team leader at quarterback.
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Arizona vs. TennesseeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Arizona Cardinals are currently one of the NFL's hottest teams, and they travel to Tennessee to take on a struggling Titans team on Sunday. The Cards have won five of their last six, while the Titans have lost four of five. The visitors look awful tempting as just a slight favorite.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Previous History - These teams have met just twice over the past decade, and Arizona has covered the points in both of those meetings. The Cardinals are also 6-0 ATS in their last six road games versus sub .500 teams.
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2: Titans Defense - Statistically, Tennessee's defense doesn't look too bad. They haven't played a lot of great offensive teams though, and they failed the test miserably against the Broncos last week. It was the first time they faced a to tier quarterback, and Manning picked them apart for 397 yards and four touchdowns.
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3: X-Factor - The Cardinals 3rd ranked run defense has allowed fewer than 85 rushing yards per game. If the Titans can't run, it puts even more pressure on their backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Randall the HandleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BEST BETSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Bills (4-9) at Jaguars (4-9)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Don’t be fooled by Jacksonville’s current streak. A month ago, you couldn’t bet counterfeit money on them. Now they are a very short price at home because of four wins in five games, including three straight. However, those wins came against four losing teams. Two of them were against the woeful Texans, ultimately costing Houston’s coach his job. A win at Cleveland isn’t exactly cause for celebration either. Prior to this supposed improvement, the Jaguars were averaging just less than 11 points per game on offense. Jacksonville’s offense still ranks dead last in terms of yards per game, points per game and rushing yards per game. Granted, the Bills have not been any great shakes themselves, losers of four of five, but there is talent littered throughout Buffalo’s roster. After an embarrassment in Tampa last week, expect a much stronger effort against a host that has won just once in more than a year on this field. TAKING: BILLS –2
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Redskins (3-10) at Falcons (3-10)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Ho, ho, ho. That’s not Santa speaking. That’s our reaction to the overreaction of this number. We recognize how poor the Redskins have been, but it’s not like they are headed somewhere to play a contender. The benching of Robert Griffin III certainly has upped this pointspread, but anyone who’s seen Kirk Cousins play knows they will be getting a bang for their buck. Can the team be worse off the way RG3 was performing? The Falcons are another team that can’t wait for the season to end. It’s just that they haven’t received the fanfare that Washington has, perhaps because of the expected coaching changes in D.C. Atlanta has just three wins, two of them against co-division dreg Buccaneers and an overtime win against the Bills. The wins against Tampa were the only ones in nine tries against NFC opponents. The Falcons have been outscored on the season by 80 points. Is this a team you want to have to win by more than a converted touchdown to get the money? TAKING: REDSKINS +7
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Bengals (9-4) at Steelers (5-8)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh finishes the year in Green Bay and at home to the Browns. The Steelers will not be going to the playoffs. Knowing all that, this Monday-night affair becomes their Super Bowl and we expect an all-out effort in an attempt to redeem itself for an early September loss in Cincinnati. The Black and Gold have improved their play after a sluggish start. They’ve made adjustments on the offensive line and the results have been evident, as Ben Roethlisberger and his offense have scored 23 or more points in five of Pittsburgh’s past six games. Big Ben has not thrown an interception in four straight, while tossing nine touchdowns. The Bengals have a losing road record and they have not won an away game in nearly two months. The up-and-down play of Cincy QB Andy Dalton must always be considered and, with Pittsburgh’s familiarity with him, it could prove beneficial to the home side. The mild upset would not surprise. TAKING: STEELERS +3
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THE RESTFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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49ers (9-4) at Buccaneers (4-9)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The last time the Niners played the Seahawks, San Francisco was crushed 27-7 at home by the Colts in its next game. This could be a bigger letdown spot than that one after the 49ers avenged that loss to Seattle last week with a physical home win. Now they’ll be asked to fly across the country to play an early game against an improving Tampa Bay team. The Bucs have covered five of the previous six and they’ve averaged slightly more than 27 points per game during that span. LB Lavonte David has stepped up in helping the Tampa defense improve as well. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +5
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Cardinals (8-5) at Titans (5-8)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oddsmakers keep pricing the Titans like they’re something, but come the end of a Sunday, they keep paying out on those tickets. Tennessee has just two covers in its past seven games and, once again, this shoddy team is getting more respect than it deserves. Conversely, the Cardinals are being disrespected as they continue to win week in and week out in impressive fashion. Carson Palmer has finally found an offense he can work with, aided by the outstanding play of the ageless Larry Fitzgerald. After opening day, Arizona’s only losses are to teams currently with eight wins or more. This opponent is hardly in that class. TAKING: CARDINALS –2½
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Saints (10-3) at Rams (5-8)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With all of their offensive firepower, it is bizarre how differently the Saints play at home compared to their road games. New Orleans’ past three away include a 34-6 pounding in Seattle, a pedestrian 17-13 win at Atlanta and a loss at the offensively challenged Jets. Until we see some indication of that changing, we’re reluctant to spot this many points on foreign turf. St. Louis held its own with the Seahawks here before trampling the Bears at the end of November. The Rams’ pass rush cannot be ignored, ranking seventh with 38 quarterback takedowns. After watching Seattle rattle Drew Brees recently, they may have learned enough to keep this one within reach. TAKING: RAMS +6
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Seahawks (11-2) at N.Y. Giants (5-8)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, expect New York to be playing hard against the team with the league’s best record. Seattle is another bi-polar team when it comes to home and away. While the Seahawks maintain a winning road record, there have been some very close calls. If you remove a 33-10 win in Atlanta, Seattle’s average road win is by 5.4 points. Seattle could be flat after battling with the 49ers last week and then having to fly east for an early start. With temps expected to be near freezing and some gusty winds swirling, expect a conservative tempo and a score that reflects such a pace. TAKING: GIANTS +7
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Texans (2-11) at Colts (8-5)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re not anxious to hitch our bankroll to either of these two AFC South teams, but given the current state of affairs, we prefer taking any points that Indianapolis is offering these days. The Colts have only won one game by more than six points since September and that was an eight-point victory over the Titans when the score was not indicative of that winning margin. In that set was a game between these two that saw Indy needing to rally twice from 18 points down before edging out a 27-24 win. The Colts have not been able to stop anyone lately, surrendering more than 40 points in two of their past three games. TAKING: TEXANS +6
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Patriots (10-3) at Dolphins (7-6)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Patriots are being held together by duct tape and a damaged piece broke off again as key contributor Rob Gronkowski was lost for the year. Still, New England finds ways to win and it’s tough to buck that trend when they are short-priced as they are here. We admire what the Dolphins are doing, but Miami’s only win against a winning team since Week 2 was when they hosted the Bengals. Despite the Fish’s soft schedule, their offense ranks poorly in most categories, their best being 19th in the passing game. New England has enough of a pass rush to get to an exposed Ryan Tannehill. That could be the difference. TAKING: PATRIOTS –2
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Eagles (8-5) at Vikings (3-9-1)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Not many teams are playing better than the Eagles right now, but the Vikings refuse to go away, as we’ve seen in three consecutive nail-biters. Philadelphia will travel for the first time in a month, while the Vikings will be in their home dome for only the second time since early November. Minny’s lone home game during that time frame was a win over the Bears, making it two straight victories as hosts. It appears that Matt Cassell will QB the Vikes the rest of the way, having done a decent job recently and he’ll now have the luxury of facing a Philadelphia pass defense surrendering 285 yards per game, placing them 31st in the league. TAKING: VIKINGS +4½
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Jets (6-7) at Panthers (9-4)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets may be up against it with their rudderless offense facing a strong Carolina defense, but the Panthers could get caught napping here in a difficult situational spot. Carolina is still stinging from being schooled in New Orleans last week. Turns out they have those same Saints coming for a visit next week. So in this classic sandwich spot, giving away double-digits is a very dangerous proposition. New York also figures to be loose as it was in a win over Oakland last week, having nothing to lose, while QB Geno Smith is trying to prove that he belongs in the bigs. The low total posted also favors the dog here. TAKING: JETS +11
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Chiefs (10-3) at Raiders (4-9)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raiders lack impact players, but they come to play most Sundays and this is one they’d really like to have. The Chiefs embarrassed Oakland a couple of months back by a 24-7 count. K.C.’s pass attack was in fine form that day, sacking QB Terrelle Pryor a ridiculous 10 times. Since then, things have improved, with the Raiders switching to QB Matt McGloin while also getting a starting tackle back on the field. This may not be the best matchup for the visiting Chiefs as Oakland is solid against the run and Kansas City’s 24th-ranked aerial game cannot be relied upon. The Raiders are home for only the second time since Nov. 3 TAKING: RAIDERS +4½
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Ravens (7-6) at Lions (7-6)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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These two are polar opposites, with the Ravens poised and methodical and the Lions anything but. However, when you consider Baltimore’s road play this year (just one win) and that Detroit will be back indoors after trudging through the snow a week ago, the Leos get the nod. Baltimore hasn’t played a winning team in a month and they arrive here after playing two at home after dropping its last three away. It will also aid Detroit to have RB Reggie Bush back in the lineup as the nifty back has missed a couple of games with a muscle pull. Baltimore does not have the offensive personnel to trade punches here. TAKING: LIONS –6
Wunderdog
Arizona at Tennessee
Pick: Over 41.5
The Arizona Cardinals are a surprising 8-5, and although Carson Palmer takes some heat for a too many errant throws, he has added a bundle to the offense on this team. Last season, the Cardinals produced 20 points or more in a game just one time in their last 12 contests. This season they have done so 11 times through 13 games, including each of the last nine. Ryan Fitzpatrick has started the last five games for the Titans, and has produced 23 points or more in four of them, so I think the low total here is in considerable jeopardy. Both of these teams appear to be destined for 20 points or more, and Arizona is an amazing 66-29-1 in their last 86 after gaining over 350 yards in their previous game. The Titans are 7-0 to the OVER after allowing 350 or more in their previous game. Make the play on the OVER.
Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston vs. Indianapolis
Pick: IndianapolisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The wiseguys here in Vegas absolutely despise the Colts; rare vitriol from professional bettors. Why the abject hatred for Indy? Simple -- Indy’s stats are lousy, just like they were last year; yet the Colts are on a 16-8 ATS run in their last 24 ballgames.
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In other words, the sharp $$ has been fading Indy for two years and consistently losing those bets; a mounting source of frustration.
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Those same wiseguys have cashed betting against the Colts three times in their last five games; blowout losses against the Rams, Cardinals and Bengals. And we’re seeing heavy money pour in on Houston, against Indy again this week; giving us a very favorable line to support the superior team, at home in a strong bounceback spot. It’s surely worth noting that Indy is 4-0 SU and ATS off a loss this year, on the heels of their 5-0 SU and ATS mark coming off a loss last year.
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There’s also a wiseguy school of thought that says ‘bet on a team in the first game after their coach gets fired.’ That’s a tried and true strategy for NBA, NHL and MLB, but I haven’t seen a lick of data to support that thought process in the NFL.
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Gary Kubiak got fired last week because the Texans have lost eleven straight ballgames and just got swept by the hapless Jaguars in another mistake filled contest. Supporting them here against a Colts team with an exemplary track record of bouncing back strong requires a leap of faith that Houston is still capable of coming through with a solid performance. Quite frankly, I’m not willing to take that leap of faith….. Take the Colts
Jack Jones
New York Jets +10.5
After losing three in a row and with their backs against the wall, the Jets came away with a gutsy 37-27 win over Oakland last week to keep their playoff hopes alive. They now trail the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins by just one game for the 6th and final Wild Card spot in the AFC. With Rex Ryan as their head coach, this team will have the mentality to fight until the end.
If this team would quit turning the ball over, they could beat anybody. They proved that earlier this season by beating both the Patriots and Saints, who each have 10 wins on the season at this point. They certainly will not be intimidated by the Panthers in this one after beating two teams of that caliber.
This is a very tough spot for Carolina, which is coming off a crushing loss to the Saints with first place on the line last week. That could make this a hangover situation for the Panthers. Plus, they play the Saints against next week, which makes this a possible lookahead spot as well.
The Panthers aren’t really a team built for blowing out the opposition by double-digits. In fact, this will be the first time all season that they have been favored by double-digits, signifying there is a good chance they are overvalued. It’s only the second time that the Jets will have been an underdog by double-digits. The first time they covered as a 10.5-point dog in a 10-13 loss at New England.
The Panthers rank just 26th in the league in total offense at 320.2 yards per game. They rely heavily on the run, and the Jets have the perfect antidote considering they rank 2nd against the run at 82.6 yards per game and 3.1 per carry. Without an explosive offense, the Panthers will have a hard time covering this massive spread Sunday. They rank just 29th in the league in passing offense at 191.7 yards per game, so when the Jets take away their strength in their running game, they aren’t likely to move the ball that effectively through the air, either.
This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle. That certainly favors the double-digit underdog. Bet the Jets Sunday.
Steve Janus
Arizona Cardinals -2.5
The Cardinals don’t get a whole lot of publicity in the NFC, but this team is just one-game back of the 49ers and Panthers for the two Wild Card spots. With a win over Carolina earlier this season and a home game against the 49ers still left on the schedule, Arizona is very much alive.
Tennessee on the other hand is technically still in the mix, but trail four teams for one spot in the AFC. You have to wonder if the Titans still believe they have a chance to make the playoffs. When a team finally comes to grasp with the fact that they won’t make the playoffs, that usually leads to a poor showing on the field next time out.
While the Cardinals are just 2-4 on the road this season, each of their last three losses away from home have come against teams who are currently in the playoffs. They have taken care of the likes of Jacksonville (27-14) and Tampa Bay (13-10) on the road. I wouldn’t typically be all that excited about laying points with Arizona on the raod, but it’s hard to not like your chances when they only have to win by a field goal. Keep in mind the Cardinals are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record.
Arizona’s win over St Louis sets them up in a favorable system, as favorites in non-conference games off a win against a division rival are 81-45 (64.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Adding to this is the fact that the Titans are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs a team with a winning record.
The Cardinals defense has been one of the more underrated units in the league and are certainly capable of slowing down a Tennessee offense that needs to be able to run the football to really get in rhythm offensively. Not only does this appear to be a favorable matchup for the defense, but the Titans defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.2% of their pass attempts. That’s a key number, as the Cardinals are a perfect 6-0 ATS vs defenses who allow 61% or better this season.
Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Redskins +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Skins should be motivated to play for QB Kirk Cousins this week as he will replace RG 111. Mike Shanahan came out and had an honest press conference with the media earlier in the week. The team has won just 3 games but heads to Atlanta to play a disappointing Falcons team that has struggled. QB Matt Ryan has had a poor year and the team has seen injuires and the rise of Carolina and New Orleans to the top of the division. Look for the underdog Redskins to keep it within a touchdown on Sunday. Take Washington +7.
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NY Giants +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Alot of teams get banged up after playing a very physical SF 49ers team. It must be noted that the Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS L/10 after facing their rivals the 49ers. Seattle lost a hard fought and closely contested 19-17 battle to the Niners last Sunday, and should be in a bit of a letdown situation this week and start slowly vs a desperate and hungry NY Giants side. Add to that the Seahawks have failed to cover 9 of their L/11 as road favs off a division battle. Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
Larry NessFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
Pick: Arizona CardinalsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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One may want to argue that Arizona is the most improved team in the NFL, as Bruce Arians, who saved Indy’s season last year by stepping in as interim head coach while Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia, has again worked ‘miracles,’ this time with the Cards. Arizona opened 4-0 last year but then lost 11 of its final 12. However, the Cards are 8-5 with the Titans up on Sunday. They then play at Seattle and home to San Francisco to end the season. Quietly, the Arizona Cardinals have become a serious threat to chase down an NFC wild-card spot.
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Though he was unable to throw a pass in last week's workouts because of a sore right elbow, Palmer completed 27 of 32 passes for 269 yards and a TD (no INTs) in last Sunday's 30-10 victory over visiting St Louis. The Cards have now won FIVE of their last six (after a 3-4 start), with Palmer throwing 12 TDs and just four INTs in that span (had eight TDs and a whopping 13 INTs in his 1st seven games!). Despite a sore elbow, Palmer’s never had a QB rating below 85.0 in ANY of his last six games, while four times topping 112.0 (112.1, 114.0, 116.0 and 119.0). All this, despite a running game which averages a modest 90.2 YPG on 3.7 YPG.
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While the Cards still hold postseason hopes, the Titans, while mathematically alive for a playoff berth at 5-8, are all but ‘toast.’ They're 2-7 in their last nine after Sunday's 51-28 loss at Denver and they've dropped FOUR of five since Jake Locker went down for the season with a foot injury. QB Ryan Fitzgerald looked good in his first three games after Locker went out for the year, throwing five TDs without an INT (completed 71.% for an a average of 268.7 YPG), while posting consecutive QB ratings of 111.2, 111.6 and 109.2 However, he’s completed just 55.7% for an average of just 186.5 YPG over his last two, with two TDs and five INTs.
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The Titans will almost assuredly miss the playoffs for the FIFTH consecutive season and the team’s failure to improve despite spending $100 million in free agency will likely cost head coach Mike Munchak his job. The morale-challenged Titans enter this game looking to avoid their first FIVE-game home losing streak since 1996, when the franchise was still based in Houston. Considering the Cards still have plenty to play for and their lone loss in their last six games is a three-point defeat at Philly (don’t forget, the Eagles have won FIVE in a row), the price seems ‘cheap.’ Lay it.
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Tampa Bay +6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Sharp ATS Players are already aware of the dangers of playing a WEST COAST team who takes to the road and plays an EARLY kickoff in a eastern time zone city. That'll be the case on Sunday, as the Niners head east to take on a very HOT Tampa Bay Bucs team. The line in this game opened at San Francisco -5 points. As of Saturday, the line was still hanging around in the -5 to -6 range. You may want to hold off on your play ON the home underdog. With the Niners being a very popular play with the 'squares', there is a very good chance that this line might just go up to +6 or +7 on gameday. So follow the line move... and then STRIKE when the pointspread reaches it's zenith.
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Credit the host Buccaneers for not throwing in the towel on the season. After starting off the 2013 season with losses in EACH of their first eight games, Tampa Bay has risen like the Phoenix from the ashes. They come into Sunday's game with as 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games. And the average MARGIN during that 6-game stretch has been +9.8 ppg. So they've been covering the spread by almost 10 PPG during that stretch.
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Our database querying begins with the 'West to East' factor that we touched on in the first paragraph.
2-11 ATS since 2007: All WEST time-zone road favorites playing off a division home game (San Fran) versus any 4 pts (San Fran) in this ideal 'LET DOWN' situation.
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There's ALSO a 'hangover' or 'letdown' effect for teams who just played the Seattle Seahawks (like the Niners) as of late.
1-8 ATS last 12 months: All NFL teams AFTER playing a home game vs the Sea Seahawks (San Fran). These teams have gone a PERFECT 0-6 ATs when taking to the road.
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There's a big role reversal for the Buccaneers. They just BLASTED the Buffalo Bills as a home favorite last week... and are now catching significant points at home.
5-0 ATS: All non-division home underdogs of +3 > pts playing off a SUATS home favorite DOUBLE-DIGIT win (BUCS) versus any opponent off a SU win BUT an ATS loss (Niners).
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In their last two games, the host Bucs have WON by 21 points... and LOST by 21 points.
8-1-1 ATS since 1993: All non-division underdogs of pts and a SU loss of 20 > pts (BUCS). These teams have gone a PERFECT 5-0 ATS vs any opponent off a SU win (like the Niners).
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Sealing the deal is a look at the ATS tendencies when these two divisions (NFC West vs NFC South) hook up against each other.
1-16 SU / 2-15 ATS: All NFC WEST DIVISION road teams playing off a division game (San Fran) versus any AFC SOUTH DIVISION opponent (TAMPA BAY). These teams have gone a PERFECT 0-10 ATS when playing a a division SU WIN (Niners).
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Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville JaguarsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Buffalo Bills are coming off a horrible performance last week in Tampa losing 27 to 6 as three-point road underdogs. The Bills had five turnovers with QB Manuel throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns in the loss. The Bills have lost their last three on the road averaging 246 yards of total offense and have been outscored 85 to 33. The Jags have won four of five with two of those wins coming against the Houston Texans. In the last meeting with the Texans they lost the stat battle 406 to 181 and that has been the case for the most part in each win so far this season. That luck runs out today against the Bills. A check of our database reveals a system that tells us to Play ON a non-Monday road favorite of 2 to 9 points with a total of more than 33 points coming off a road SU loss with three or more interceptions thrown in their last game versus an opponent not off a division home SU loss of seven or more points. This system has a record of 20-1-2 ATS for 95.2 percent winners covering the spread by an average of 8.65 points per game. Play the Bills
Aaron's Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) host the Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers are coming off of two heartbreaking losses, losing to Miami last week 34-28. and to Baltimore the previous week, 22-20. Against the Dolphins, Steeler receiver Antonio Brown came up short as time expired in a wild last ditch effort. The week prior, they missed out on overtime as their two point conversion failed. Despite the loss last week, the Steelers outgained the Dolphins 412-360. Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger managed to pass for 349 yards and 3 TDs and Brown caught five passes for 137 yards and 1 TD. As a result of those two consecutive losses the Steelers have no chance of making the playoffs, and will not end up with a winning season. The Bengals are currently sitting comfortably at the top of the AFC North, with a two game lead over the Ravens. They have won three games in a row, and are coming off of a 42-28 victory over Indianapolis last week. Despite a perfect 6-0 record at home, the Bengals are only 3-4 on the road, with two of those three victories coming by a mere margin of three points each. Behind the arm of Roethlisberger the Steelers are ranked #7 passing the ball, with an average of 266.8 yards per game. In addition to last week’s effort versus the Dolphins as mentioned above, Ben and the Steelers have managed to pass for an even better 290 yards per game over their last four contests. This week they should be able to take advantage of a Bengal secondary who has been struggling as of late, allowing an average of 252.7 yards over the last three games (222.4 on the season). On the season Roethlisberger has passed for 3,724 yards, with 64% completions and a solid 24 to 10 TD to INT ratio. In their previous meeting this year in Cincinnati in the second week of the season, the Bengals won 20-10. Roethlisberger managed to pass for 251 yards and 1 TD in that one. At that point early in the year, not only were the Steelers minus running back Le’Veon Bell, but also were minus Ben’s ”safety blanket” on offense, tight end Heath Miller. Entering the lineup in the third game, Miller has caught 49 passes for 524 yards and 1 TD since. Leading all receivers for the Steelers has been Antonio Brown, catching 90 passes for 1,240 yards and 7 TDs. The other two leading wideouts are also quite competent, as Emmanuel Sanders has caught 58 passes for 661 yards and 5 TDs and Jerricho Cotchery, 41 passes for 571 yards and a team leading 9 TDs. Versatile running back Le’Veon Bell has gained 936 yards from scrimmage to go along with 5 TDs in just ten games this season. Over the last two games he has 225 yards in total offense, with 1 TD and an improved 4.3 yards per carry. Defensively, the Steelers have been quite sound, as they rank #7 in the league versus the pass, allowing an average of just 221.8 yards per game. Prior to allowing 181 yards rushing to Miami last week in snowy conditions, the Steelers were allowing just 82.8 yards per game on the ground in their previous four contests (120.2 on the season). Prior to the Bengals putting up 275 yards passing versus the Colts last week, QB Andy Dalton had been struggling, as the Bengals averaged just 184 yards through the air over the three games prior. Although the Bengals may very well put up some decent numbers passing versus the Steelers with Dalton and receivers A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, a solid Steeler defense should be able to keep them in check. Roethlisberger, Brown, Sanders, Cotchery and Miller should be able to get it done in the passing game versus the Bengals secondary, and Bell should keep the Bengal defense honest as he pounds away on the ground. As mentioned above, the Bengals have been a poor road team this year. Although the Steelers are out of the playoffs, they look to play the role of spoiler in this one, and would love nothing better than knocking off their division rival, and I forecast they’ll be able to come out of this one with an upset victory.
Aaron's Analysis
Carolina Panthers -10
The Carolina Panthers (9-4) host the New York Jets (6-7) on Sunday in Charlotte. The Panthers are coming off of a disappointing 31-13 loss at New Orleans last week, ending their eight game winning streak. That loss also put them one game behind the Saints in the NFC South. The Jets are coming off of a 37-27 victory at home over Oakland, putting an end to their three game losing streak. Despite the victory, they were outgained 383-352. As a result of that victory, the Jets still cling to hopes of making the playoffs. Playoffs? By simply reading that you cannot hear the emphasis, as I was trying to imitate what Coach Jim Mora said in an interview years ago. The Panthers have won five consecutive games at home, with their loss prior coming at the start of the season versus the now 11-2 Seattle Seahawks. Throwing out a tough 24-20 victory over the always tough 10-3 New England Patriots, the Panthers have dominated their other four opponents at home with a combined score of 129-31. During that five game span, Panther QB Cam Newton has had a passer rating of 100.2, 65.2% completions, 1,148 yards and 10 TDs versus 5 INTs, with an additional 223 yards and 3 TDs rushing. While the Panthers are #1 in the league allowing just 14.5 points per game, the Jets are #31 in scoring, averaging just 17.4. The Jets have managed to go just 1-5 on the road this season, with their lone victory being versus 3-10 Atlanta. Throwing out that victory, the Jets have been outgained on the road by the combined score of 156-49, averaging just 9.8 points per contest. While the Jets have a decent rushing attack, their offense is one dimensional as they rank #30 passing with an average of just 181.4 yards per game. Recently they’ve seemed to have gotten even worse with QB Geno Smith, as they have averaged just 137.5 over the last six games. The Jets offense should find both points and yards hard to come by this week versus the stingy Panther defense, a defense who has allowed just 79.4 yards rushing per game (#1, 62.3 last three games) to go along with 216.8 versus the pass (#5). Offensively the Panthers rank #9 in rushing, with a solid average of 129.2 yards per game (142.3 last three games). Although the Jets rank #2 versus the rush, they’ve shown vulnerability over the past two games, as they have allowed a combined 275 yards rushing to Oakland and Miami. The Panthers should be able to move the ball on the ground versus the Jets with the likes of backs DeAngelo Williams (833 yards from scrimmage, 2 TDs) and Mike Tolbert (475 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs). Jonathan Stewart will be out with a torn MCL in his right knee. Contributing 495 yards and 6 TDs rushing is QB Cam Newton. Newton has passed for 2,776 yards, 62% completions, and a solid TD to INT ration of 20 to 11. Behind Newton the Panthers have averaged a decent 191.7 yards per game through the air. Newton and the Panthers should be able to take care of business through the air in this one, as the Jet secondary has allowed a staggering average of 290 yards per game over the last six games, with a season average of 254.9 yards, which ranks them #24. The Jets may also be without Antonio Cromartie (concussion). Newton has a talented group of receivers, with the likes of the ageless Steve Smith (60 catches for 681 yards and 4 TDs), tight end Greg Olsen (58 catches for 651 yards and 5 TDs), Brandon LaFell (45 catches for 553 yards and 5 TDs) and Ted Ginn, Jr. (31 catches for 474 yards and 4 TDs). The Panther defense allows just a total of 296.2 yards per game (#2). They should be able to handle Smith and the Jet offense. As mentioned above, the Panthers have been successful at home, and that should continue here versus a Jet team who struggles on the road. As a result of the Jets winning and the Panthers losing last week, there’s some line value in this one. Panthers should be able to dominate and get back on track here.
Sean Murphy
Houston vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Under
The first meeting in this series this season totaled 51 points, affording us some additional value with the 'under' in this spot.
Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last week, but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis.
Last week's loss in Jacksonville may have been the 'straw that broke the camel's back' so to speak for the Texans. I'm just not expecting much from Houston offensively in this spot. That's certainly no stretch as the Texans are averaging only five yards per play on the road this season. Much better Texans offenses have topped out at 17 points in their last four trips to Indy.
The Colts did manage to score 28 points in Cincinnati last Sunday, but that was after falling behind by a substantial margin in that game. Something just hasn't been right with this offense over the last month or so, and I'm not sure they'll get it figured out this week.
Home field hasn't given Indy much of a boost offensively, as it has averaged just 5.2 yards per play over its last three games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
We've seen the 'under' go 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series, and that's a trend I see continuing this afternoon. Look for the Texans defense to show some pride, while the offense remains stuck in neutral, ultimately helping this one stay 'under' the lofty total.