Steve Merril
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -6½
Philadelphia is hot right now as they’ve won five straight games while going 4-1 ATS. The Eagles are also a fresh team as they just had their bye three weeks ago. To compare, Minnesota had their bye after Week 4 way back in September; the Vikings will play their 10th consecutive game on Sunday. Philadelphia’s offense is in tremendous form; the Eagles have scored 24 points or more in five straight games. Overall, the Eagles are averaging 25.7 points and 409.4 yards of offense per game this season. Philadelphia averages 8.0 yards per pass attempt which ranks them #4 in the NFL. They also own the best rushing attack in the league, averaging 158.8 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush. Minnesota’s poor defense will be hard-pressed to stop the Eagles in this game.
The Vikings have given up 20 points or more in every game this season. Overall, Minnesota is allowing 30.4 points and 401.8 yards per game. The Vikings allow opponents to gain 5.6 yards per play (#22) and 7.0 yards per pass attempt (#21). The Vikings’ pass defense is going to get torched in this game by Philadelphia QB Nick Foles. Minnesota has allowed a league-high 29 passing touchdowns this season, and they lost their best cover-corner (Xavier Rhodes) last week to injury. Foles is having an exceptional season running Chip Kelly’s offense. Foles has a QB rating of 120.0 with an incredible 20/1 TD/INT ratio. Matt Cassel will be under center once again for Minnesota. But unfortunately for him, the Vikings backfield is depleted. Adrian Peterson (foot) is expected to miss this game and his replacement, Toby Gerhart, hurt his hamstring last week and he’s highly questionable to play. Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in games they win SU this season. The Eagles have won six of those seven games by 6 points or more with their averaging win coming by 12.5 points per game. We’ll lay the points with the Eagles in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Bob Harvey
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 204½
he New Orleans Pelicans have finally begun to adjust to the absence of injured power forward Anthony Davis - and they have strong guard play to thank for it. The Pelicans look to build off back-to-back victories Sunday evening when they visit the Denver Nuggets in their first meeting of the season. New Orleans is coming off a 104-98 win over Memphis - salvaging a .500 record on their four-game homestand - while the Nuggets dropped a 103-93 decision to Utah.
With Davis expected to miss several more weeks with a broken bone in his hand, the Pelicans' dynamic backcourt duo of Eric Gordon and Jrue Holiday has stepped up. Gordon led the way with 25 points against the Grizzlies while Holiday is averaging 19.5 points and 10 assists over the past two games. The Nuggets' starting guard duo of Ty Lawson and Randy Foye has been the exact opposite of effective, having combined for zero points in the loss to the Jazz.
ABOUT THE PELICANS (11-10): As well as New Orleans ended its homestand, the news wasn't all positive. Veteran swingman and bench spark Tyreke Evans aggravated a left ankle injury in Friday night's victory and may not participate in Sunday's opener of a five-game road trip. The Pelicans have other concerns, as well; they're allowing opponents to shoot a robust 47.2 percent on the season, the second-worst mark in the league.
ABOUT THE NUGGETS (13-9): Head coach Brian Shaw was displeased with his team's collective effort against the lowly Jazz, and has suggested that changes to the starting unit may be on the way. Of particular concern: Denver allowed 33 points in the first quarter versus Utah, the latest in a series of bad starts. "Continuing to give up those big quarters is not going to get it done for us," Shaw told the Denver Post. "The chemistry, for whatever reason, is not there."
Dave Price
Arizona Cardinals -3
With tough division games against Seattle and San Francisco ahead, the Cardinals know they need to take care of business here to boost their chances of making the playoffs. While Tennessee is still mathematically alive for a playoff berth, it is a long shot. The Titans went into Denver last Sunday with hopes of staying in the thick of the race but left with their tail between their legs. It will be mighty tough for this team to recover from that beating. Tennessee has been a poor investment against winning teams, going 10-26-1 ATS in its last 37 games versus such opponents. The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 14 points. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a losing record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record. Lastly, the Titans are 0-7 ATS in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 30.7 to 18.4. Take Arizona.
Rob Vinciletti
Seattle Seahawks vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants +7½
The Giants are taking a touchdown here today in what looks like flat spot for a Seattle team that comes in off a close loss to San Francisco last week. Road favorites like the Seahawks that are off a loss that broke 3 or more game win streak have failed to cover 10 of the last 11 times vs an opponent that lost by 20 or more points straight up and to the spread like the Giants. Seattle is flatter than a short stack at IHOP after a game with the Niners and have failed to cover the last 6 times as a road favorite off a division game vs an opponent that had revenge. Also in effect is a solid 25-4 system that plays on non division dogs of 6.5 or more with at least one win that are off a non division loss and are playing an opponent off a division loss. It will be cold with a mixture of snow and rain here today and the Giants can keep this game close.
Brandon Shively
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Play: Over 41
While a lot of folks today are looking at the 'UNDER' in this game, I want to tell you why I am looking the other direction as this game will be going OVER the Total by 7 points or more I believe. A lot of guys are looking at the trends in this game and seeing that the UNDER is 9-1 the L10 matchups when these divisional rivals hook up. Seeing this trend, one might think that the UNDER is a 'lock' for this game. Not so fast though. The lines makers still have this total posted at '41' and are begging for some UNDER action.
I am going to wait before kickoff in this one, and see if we can get it at 40.5 possibly. The Chiefs defense has taken a step back as of late as they are giving up 34 ppg in their last 3 divisional games. I am not saying that the Raiders will score 34 points this afternoon, but I feel they will score 20-23 points playing at home. I know they will move the ball with success, and Janokowski is always a threat to kick a couple 50 yarders. The Raiders defense has been regressing and that is where Kansas City will take advantage. Alex Smith has no problem in taking what the defense gives him and he should make some big plays down filed off the play action. I am seeing a 17-10 score at halftime in the Chiefs favor, and the 14-17 points in the second half should be no problem. The Raiders are on a 5-0-1 OVER run currently. The defense is allowing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes and this has the makings of a high scoring game. The Raiders have a decent run game, but they do their best at home where they are rushing for 155 yards per game for 5.1 yards per carry. That ties in nicely with the fact that the Chiefs are getting torched on the ground for 5.2 yards per carry on the road.
I see the final score in the 31-20 range for the Chiefs today and the OVER should be locked in by the end of the 3rd quarter so you won't have to sweat this one.
DB Consensus
Chiefs at Raiders
Pick: Under
These AFC West divisional foes have some powerful trends pointing to a low scoring game. Under is 14-4-1 in KC last 19 vs. AFC West. Under is 7-2-1 in KC last 10 road games. Under is 21-8-1 in KC last 30 vs. AFC. Under is 8-1-1 in OAK last 10 home games. Under is 7-2 in OAK last 9 vs. AFC West. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oakland. Head-to-Head is a RIDICULOUS 9-1 UNDER the last 10 meetings. The Chiefs can clinch a playoff spot with a win today. Last meeting (10/13) KC sacked Pryor TEN TIMES! Lots of punting and clock killing in the 2nd half sends KC to the playoffs.
Bruce Marshall
Pepperdine at Washington State
Pick: Pepperdine
Pep has been a bit erratic, but its best efforts suggest Waves can hang around in the Palouse. Emergence of frosh G Jermey Major (15 ppg last five games) and juco backcourt mate Malcolm Brooks (scored 16 in recent win over UCI) providing a nice complement to frontline workhorse 6-6 soph PF Stacy Davis (16.2 ppg & 57% from floor). Meanwhile, Pac-12 sources report Wazzu HC Ken Bone still trying to shore up PG position that was depleted when expected starter juco Danny Lawhorn left the team in preseason practice. Cougs (only one spread cover first five on board) now relying heavily upon G DaVonte Lacy (21.8 ppg), the only Wazzu player scoring more than 10 ppg. In current state, not sure revenge angle for last year’s 2-point OT loss in Malibu is enough reason to support Cougs.
Charlie Scott
Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Washington Redskins +6
I believe the Redskins sitting RG3 and starting Cousins at QB could be a positive for the Skins. I also can't understand laying this many points with the Falcons who due to cluster injuries quit a couple of weeks ago.
Andy Iskoe
New Orleans Saints -6
The Saints are in a Carolina sandwich as they will be at Carolina next week after routing the Panthers at home this past Sunday night. The Rams have played well at times this season but a loss here would be their third three game losing streak. The Saints need a win to stay a game ahead of the Panthers and maintain their Division lead and a chance for a number 2 seed as opposed to a number 5 seed if they fall to a Wild Card. New Orleans is just 3-3 on the road but two of the losses were at Seattle and New England. St Louis is capable of staying close into the second half but ultimately New Orleans has too many options on offense and a much improved defense capable of pulling away.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +5½ over INDIANAPOLIS
Since defeating the Broncos in Week 7 the Colts have been as wretched as any team in the league. In six weeks since that victory, Indianapolis is 3-3 but should probably be 0-6. It started in Week 9 after their bye when the Colts played in Houston on a Monday Night. Indy needed a 15-0 fourth quarter to defeat the Texans 27-24 they were outgained in 483-314 and lost the time of possession, 36 minutes to 24. The Colts were buried in St. Louis the next week, 38-8. In Week 11, Indy fell behind the Titans 17-6 and needed another rally to win by three, 30-27. In week 12, the Colts were buried in Arizona, 40-11 and in Week 12, they defeated the Titans again, this time by a score of 22-14. In that latter game against Tennessee, Andrew Luck passed for 160 yards and the Colts had 265 total yards of offense but Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three picks and the Titans fumbled once. Incidentally, Indy fumbled three times in that game and lost none of them. Finally last week, Indy lost in Cincinnati 42-28. The Colts are not a good team. They’ve been fortunate with every bounce going their way. If this game meant anything to them, we’d still be reluctant to spot points because they are among the least appealing and riskiest favorites in the NFL. The Colts already clinched the AFC South but are three games back from a possible first round bye so they have three weeks to play and yet not have it matter. No reason yet to expect resting of players but it is bothersome that the Colts do not have any added motivation to win games with the playoffs still three weeks away.
Teams respond differently when they lose a head coach. Some actually get markedly better while others just dwell in the futility that got their coach fired in the first place. We can assure you that Wade Phillips wants to win and so do these players. Phillips brought in some Big 12 refs to the Texans practice this week in an attempt to get his team to cut down on penalties. Houston has dropped 11 games in a row and no team or individual player wants to keep losing at a humiliating pace and it’s not like the Texans don’t have talent. Case Keenum had a big game against the Colts last time and that’s when it mattered for Indy. The Texans defense ranks among the top units in the NFL. Andre Johnson had his best game of the year - make that his career, when he reeled in nine passes for 229 yards and three scores on the Colts in week nine. The Colts have not played better than Houston for six weeks. In a nothing game they are asking to spot a margin against a hungry team that is going to put a stop to its futility at some point. We’re calling the Texans outright but will accept the points.
Buffalo -2 over JACKSONVILLE
How can the Bills be road favorites!? That’s probably the sentiment of most people after the Jaguars won again last week for their third straight victory and fourth win in five games. Now we get an opportunity to sell high on a team that could generate precious little offense in the first 10 weeks of the season but that has scored 29, 32 and 27 points in three of the past five weeks. That’s nice but we’re not buying into that for a second. Most of those points were handed to the Jags. In last week’s 27-20 win over Houston, Chad Henne went 12-27 for 117 yards. In the Jags 29-27 win over the Titans, Henne went 14-23 for 180 yards and the Titans fumbled five times, losing three of them and threw two picks. In Jacksonville’s 32-28 win over the Brownies, Henne was at it again by going 22-40 for 195 yards. Truth is, the Jags have had a lot of good fortune and favorable bounces over the past month but this is still the same team that was getting smoked almost every week for the first nine weeks of the season.
The Bills will wind down another losing season. The offense started well early in the season but E.J. Manuel hit the rookie wall and began to decline in recent games. There's plenty of raw material for next season if the Bills can only determine how to be consistent on offense and how C.J. Spiller can fit in so that he's not just an explosion every four weeks. E.J. Manuel returned in Week 10 and suffered through his worst game yet last week in Tampa Bay when he passed for 184 yards and four interceptions. In other words, C.J Manuel’s worst game is Chad Henne’s best. Furthermore, the Bills have played a rather tough schedule that includes games against New England, Carolina, Cinci, New Orleans and Kansas City and aside from a 35-17 loss to the Saints the Bills were in a position to win the others. Yeah, the Bills are just 4-9 and yeah, they’ve looked bad at times but they are so much better than the Jags and should prove so here. The Bills had a rough game last week but so what. It happens. Let’s not forget what they did to the Jets (37-14) prior to their bye week and all of those other good games they’ve played. The Bills poor effort last week almost guarantees us a response here because Buffalo is usually well prepared and ready to go. Should that come to pass, the Jags pure luck will not hold up again.
DALLAS -6½ over Green Bay
The Cowboys did not merely lose in Chicago, they exposed just how badly the defense plays and that the Cowboys offense cannot handle cold weather even versus a defense that has been decimated by injury this year. We just love it when a team looks so awful in prime time and the next week’s line is a reaction to it. Not only do teams respond to being whacked, Tony Romo and the Cowboys are sick of hearing how they choke every December.
Can someone explain why the Cowboys aren’t -14 here? Sure the Packers won last week but that was in the bitter cold at home against the inept Falcons (an indoor team) by a single point. Aaron Rodgers might as well replace his jersey name with "GLUE" because it all falls apart without him. Two weeks of Matt Flynn and the wideouts have never looked worse. James Jones hasn't scored since week four and with Flynn under center he only managed four catches for 19 yards against the weak secondary of the Falcons. When we look at the Packers without Rodgers, we see them losing by 14 to both Philadelphia and the Giants. On Thanksgiving, they were clobbered by the Lions in a flattering 30-point loss. The Pack should have lost that one by 50. The closest the Pack have been on the road since losing Rodgers is 14 points and now this marginal defense will be facing its toughest test of the season. Green Bay does not have the horses to get into a shootout (see Detroit) and a Dallas squad in a foul mood is very likely to do the same thing to the Packers as the other two clubs did when they came calling. This is a cheap price.
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Houston (+5.5) 22 INDIANAPOLIS 27FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The wakeup call was sounded this past week with the firing of HC Gary Kubiak after their 20-27 loss to the Jaguars in Jacksonville after a terrible performance by an underachieving team. Despite outgaining the Jaguars 406 yards at 5.1 yppl to 281 yards at 4.9 yppl, they continuously shot themselves in the foot with poor penalties and uninspired play. I’m sure the firing got a lot of player’s attention and as a result I expect a better performance this week against the Colts, who they surrendered a 21-3 halftime lead to before losing 24-27 back in week 9. In this matchup both teams should be able to run the ball effectively, but the Colts have been below average passing the pass since WR Reggie Wayne has been out, and may struggle once again here against a Texans team that has been very good defending the pass (allowing 184 yards at 5.9 yps against teams that gain 223 yards at 6.1 yps on average). Offensively, Houston may have some opportunities against a Colts pass defense that is allowing 243 yards at 7.0 yps against teams that gain 235 yards at 6.4 yps on average. The Texans qualify in a 43-16 situation and my model only favors the Colts in this spot by (-3.9) but this Colt team is very good off of a loss (9-0 SU and ATS) the past two seasons and after their 28-42 beat down in Cincinnati last week, I expect them to play better at home in this spot as they look to gain some momentum as they head into the playoffs. I’ll lean slightly to the Texans plus the points.
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Philadelphia (-5) 28 MINNESOTA 18FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After trailing 0-14 last week against the Lions, the Eagles made some adjustments to take advantage of the slippery playing conditions by abandoning the outside running game which was smothered early, to a more direct between the tackles approach, where defenders couldn’t gain traction inside. It worked as the Eagles came back to win 34-20 behind 301 rushing yards at 6.8 ypr. While it’s not rocket science, that’s the mark of a smart coach, one who is adaptable to game specific conditions and is willing to make changes on the fly. With the Cowboys loss to the Bears on Monday night, the Eagles are in the driver seat in the NFC East with a one game lead and will look to improve their position with a win in Minnesota. In their current five game winning streak the Eagles have outscored opponents 31.4 – 18.0, and after some early defensive issues, the Eagles have allowed just 17.4 points per game in their last seven. They’ll face a Vikings team that lost a tough one last week 26-29 to the Ravens and is really banged up with multiple injuries in their RB and TE groups as well as their defensive backfield. Philadelphia has multiple offensive and defensive advantages in this game and with the Vikings main offensive threat RB Adrian Peterson questionable with a foot injury and his backup Gerhart hobbled with a hamstring, this could be a long day for the Vikings. The only worry here for me is the threat of a letdown for the Eagles as they may be starting to feel a bit too good about themselves after their big win last week and with a big Sunday night showdown at home against the Bears next week looming. My model likes the Eagles here (-8.2) assuming Peterson plays and I also have a negative 186-300-17 statistical indicator that plays against the Vikings in this spot. I do have a 30-10 situation that applies to the Vikings but it’s not real strong. With some concern at this point about a letdown, I’ll lean with the Eagles minus the points.
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ATLANTA (-7) 32 Washington 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redskins are a mess right now with the coach attempting to manipulate his way out while still getting paid, a QB/owner relationship that has undermined the coaches’ authority, and a defense that has been just awful this season. That being said, it’s hard to say how this team will play as backup QB Kirk Cousins takes over for Robert Griffin, and what their mental state is at this point. It’s probably not very good as most players expect a coaching change and lots of turnover in the offseason, and with nothing to play for right now this team could go in the tank. From a production standpoint, the QB change makes sense as Griffin has not played well and Cousins brings something different to the table that Atlanta will have to try and prepare for but it may not make much of a difference if the team around him has mailed it in. On the other side, the Falcons have also had a poor season but without the drama in Washington, and with some improvement in recent weeks as some players have come back and gotten a bit healthier, they will look to finish the season strong and head into the off-season with some positive momentum. Washington qualifies in a 155-89-11 situation and my model favors the Falcons by (-7.3) but I don’t have any faith in the Redskins at this point. After their blowout 10-45 home loss last week to the Chiefs and now travelling to play in Atlanta, who has been tough to beat at home, they will travel back to Washington to play division rival Dallas next week in a game that they might have some more focus on. Despite the situation, I don’t like the spot at all for Washington and will lean with the Falcons minus the points.
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San Francisco (-5) 21 TAMPA BAY 15FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With their 19-17 home win against the division rival Seahawks last week, the 49ers improved their record to 9-4 and are currently the 6th seed in the NFL playoff picture with a one game lead over the Cardinals for the final wildcard spot. This is a tough spot for the 49ers as they just played a difficult game against their main division rival and now travel cross country to play a 4-9 Tampa team in a 10AM PST start time game before heading back home to play on Monday night football next week against the Falcons. The Bucs have clearly gained momentum after their 0-8 start and are 4-1 SU their last five games and 5-1 ATS in their last six. They will look to continue their positive momentum here and finish out the season strong against a 49ers team that may get caught flat. My model favors the 49ers here (-7.2) and I also have a statistical indicator that plays against the Bucs that is (186-300-17). Despite the technical support, I can’t overlook the spot and as a result I’ll offer a weak lean to the 49ers minus the points.
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OAKLAND (+4.5) 20 Kansas City 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chiefs come into this game off of an easy 45-10 wipeout of the Redskins in Washington in a game that was never in question and look to pull even with the Broncos at 11 wins after Denver’s 20-27 loss to the Chargers on Thursday night. After losing three straight games, the Chiefs seemed to get back on track last week but the reality of it is that the Redskins were falling apart at the seams internally and that became public knowledge after the Shanahan news story broke and the subsequent developments in the story this week. The Chiefs aren’t as good as they played last week and season numbers show a team that is slightly below average overall from an adjusted yppl perspective. They have been opportunistic and have also had some luck on their side with a league leading +15 turnover differential (+7 in net fumbles). On the other side, the Raiders come off of a 27-37 loss to the Jets and have now lost three in a row and five of their last six. They have played better at home, with a 3-3 SU and ATS mark while the Chiefs are 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this season. Oakland qualifies in a 179-84-5 situation and my model only favors the Chiefs by -3.2 here so based on the numbers I like the Raiders plus the points.
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New Orleans (-6.5) 29 ST. LOUIS 18FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Saints come into this game off of a huge 31-13 win at home against the Panthers for the division lead. Their defense played well overall, holding Carolina to 239 total yards at 3.9 yppl while their offense rolled up 374 yards at 6.3 yppl. This week they face a Rams team that has not been able to stop the pass this year (allowing 249 yards at 7.1 yps against teams that gain 227 yards at 6.2 yps) and the Saints should be able to carve them up with a passing offense that has my #3 rating. The St. Louis offense will be hard pressed to keep up as they have some real problems offensively with a banged up and shuffled offensive line protecting a below average second string QB who will be throwing to subpar receivers. The Rams are going to rely on their good ground game to keep them in this one and they actually have a good match-up against a Saints defense that is not very good against the run. I’m sure Saints DC Rob Ryan has consulted with his brother Rex, who as HC of the Jets watched Kellen Clemens operate this Brian Shottenheimer offense for years when they were both with the Jets and may have some good information on tendencies and areas of vulnerability that he will look to exploit. This obviously isn’t a great spot for the Saints coming off two huge primetime games with a game against the Panthers on deck next week but New Orleans knows that they can’t afford to lose this game as they can still lose the division to the Panthers. I have situations going both ways in this one but my model favors the Saints here (-8.9) and with strong passing match-ups and good information on their side I like the Saints.
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TENNESSEE (+2.5) 21 Arizona 19FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With their convincing 30-10 win last week at home against the Rams, the Cardinals moved their record to 8-5 and are currently the 7th seed as they continue to fight for a potential wildcard playoff berth. Their defense has been very good this season, and last week continued their good play at home as they held the Rams offense to 257 total yards at 5.1 yppl with four sacks and two interceptions. They haven’t been quite as good on the road this year with just a 2-4 record (they are 6-1 at home), and will travel this week to Tennessee to face the Titans. After jumping out to an early 21-10 lead last week in Denver, the Titans ended up being outscored the rest of the game 7-41 before eventually losing, 28-51. Overall, the Titans are a slightly below average team, and after a 3-1 start they have dropped seven of their last nine. HC Mike Munchak’s job is in jeopardy but is well liked within the organization and this is a team that should continue to play hard for him the rest of the season. This is the time of year where analyzing what a teams motivations are come into a different sort of focus, as teams with losing records experience a lot of uncertainty with potential coaching/personnel changes looming on the horizon. While not completely mathematically eliminated, the Titans are a long shot at a wildcard at this point, but still cling to the 10th seed and are classified as being still in the hunt. As a result, and with support for their HC, I expect the Titans to play well in this spot. In addition, this is a divisional sandwich spot for the Cardinals with difficult games the next two weeks against the Seahawks and 49ers. Arizona could get caught here overlooking a team that they probably shouldn’t. There is technical support on the Titans side as well as they qualify in a 30-10 situation and also benefit from a negative 83-168-9 situation that plays against the Cardinals. I like the Titans plus the points.
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Green Bay (+7) 23 DALLAS 28FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With their 22-21 win last week at home against the Falcons, the Packers remain in playoff contention with a 6-6-1 record and are currently projected as the 10th seed in the NFC. They were hoping for the return of QB Aaron Rodgers this week but he is out for this game and that leaves Matt Flynn to run the offense. Since Aaron Rodgers left the Chicago game with his injury, the Green Bay passing offense has been terrible as you might expect. The combination of Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn have been a huge downgrade with a combined (-71.7 passing yards per game relative to Aaron Rodgers average, with a 3.9 INT% and just a .01 TD%. The good news for the Packers is that this week they face a Cowboys defense that is allowing 428 yards at 6.3 yppl and have been bad against the run and the pass. Dallas is another team fighting for playoff positioning with a chance at either their division title or a wild card berth but took a step back in their 28-45 loss in Chicago on Monday night where their defense was exploited by the Bears both on the ground and in the air to the tune of 491 total yards at 7.2 yppl. While the Cowboys ran the ball well (199 yards at 7.4 ypr), they couldn’t generate much through the air as Tony Romo was only able to pass for 130 yards at 4.8 yps. Adjusted season numbers show the Cowboys to be a below average team, both offensively and on defense, but their +12 turnover differential (including +6 in net fumbles) is 3rd best in the league so there has been some luck involved in their success. The Packers benefit from a negative 57-115-3 situation that plays against the Cowboys here and my model favors Dallas by (-6.3). I’ll lean with the Packers plus the points.
Cincinnati (-2) 24 PITTSBURGH 20
Off of a 42-28 home win last week against the Colts, Cincinnati now has a two game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North and will look to increase their lead in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. The Bengals seem to be hitting their stride, winning their last three against Cleveland, San Diego and Indianapolis by an average score of 33.3 – 19.3. With a chance to beat division rival Pittsburgh in front of a national audience on Sunday night, the Bengals will be fired up to perform well. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, comes off of a heartbreaking home loss to the Dolphins in a game that they thought they had won on the last play, before it was determined that Antonio Brown stepped out of bounds before going into the end zone. That loss essentially eliminated the Steelers from playoff contention this season, and I’m sure was a tough pill to swallow. They’ll look to rebound this week with revenge for an earlier 10-20 loss in Cincinnati in Week 2 but will have a hard time against a solid Bengals team that has some good match-ups in their favor. Behind a banged up and shuffled offensive line, Pittsburgh has not been able to run the ball very well this season (averaging 78 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 113 yards at 4.2 ypr) and will face a Bengals rush defense that has been pretty good in allowing 98 yards at 4.1 ypr against teams that gain 106 yards at 4.2 ypr on average. They’ll have to pass the ball effectively to win the game and they have the ability to do that but Cincinnati’s pass defense has been one of the league’s best so I’m not sure how successful they’ll be. On the other side, the Bengals offense has been above average and will face a Steelers defense that has been banged up and is a bit below average overall. This game is really a toss up to me as I don’t have any situations in play and my model only favors the Bengals by (-2.3) here. With some favorable matchups I’ll lean slightly to the Bengals minus the points.
Bob Balfe
St. Louis Rams +6
The Saints as we all know are pretty much flawless in their own building, but when you get the crowd noise against them we all have seen how they can get beat. The Rams matchup very well against them on defense and really have the ability to get after the quarterback. New Orleans is weak with their front 7 and corners due to injury. I expect the Rams to play well enough at home to have a chance to win this game outright. Take St. Louis
Harry Bondi
New England / Miami Under 45.5
Today, we look to South Florida where we'll take advantage of the trend that says divisional games this late in the season typically go under the total. What's more, this series has gone under in three straight and the Patriots have gone under in five of their last six AFC East games while the Dolphins have gone under in seven of their last eight divisional affairs. The loss of Rob Gronkowski for the New England offense will also be a friend to the under since the team has averaged 11 points less per game when he is not on the field. Go under!
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5½
I think their is a lot of value on Tampa Bay today since they face a 49ers team that is coming off their biggest win of the season. The Buccaneers are playing well in the second half of the season. They have won four of their last five games, and have covered the spread in five of their last six. They have played from the underdog position several times, and two of their recent victories have come against teams that have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs this year.
The 49ers rely heavily on their ability to run the ball in order to win games. They face a Buccaneers defense that has played extremely well at home. Tampa Bay is holding opponents to 20.6 points per game in home games, and they have allowed a mere 88 rushing yards per game in those games. The 49ers get almost half of their total yardage on the ground in road games this season, and if they are unable to gain yardage on rushing attempts it will put them in a very tough spot.
Doug Upstone
Portland Trailblazers vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Portland Trailblazers -3½
On Sunday, Play Against underdogs like Detroit, an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) like Portland, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game). This NBA free pick is a sharp 38-12, 76% the last 16 years.