Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Houston at Toronto
The Rockets look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is coming off a 95-74 win over Dallas and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Houston is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2)

Game 801-802: Houston at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.665; Toronto 110.655
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Over

Game 803-804: Denver at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.448; Sacramento 111.688
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2); Under

Game 805-806: LA Lakers at Philadelphia (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 117.369; Philadelphia 117.316
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 192
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 807-808: New Orleans at Portland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 112.098; Portland 118.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2); Over

NCAAB

Eastern Kentucky at Illinois
The Fighting Illini look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Illinois is the pick (-15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Illini favored by 21. Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-15 1/2)

Game 809-810: UAB at Rutgers (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 53.599; Rutgers 62.392
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 9
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-6 1/2)

Game 811-812: Delaware at Villanova (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 49.567; Villanova 63.131
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 13 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Villanova by 7; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-7); Under

Game 813-814: Northern Illinois at DePaul (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 42.774; DePaul 64.000
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 21
Vegas Line: DePaul by 18
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-18)

Game 815-816: Central Michigan at Pepperdine (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 45.429; Pepperdine 57.094
Dunkel Line: Pepperdine by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Pepperdine by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (-10 1/2)

Game 817-818: Appalachian State at UMKC (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 45.327; UMKC 45.143
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: UMKC by 3
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (+3)

Game 819-820: NC-Greensboro at James Madison (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 47.954; James Madison 55.664
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (-4 1/2)

Game 821-822: Western Kentucky at Murray State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 57.832; Murray State 67.741
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 823-824: Austin Peay at Arkansas State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 45.208; Arkansas State 60.654
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-13)

Game 825-826: Drexel at Fairfield (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 55.102; Fairfield 59.483
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-2 1/2)

Game 827-828: Eastern Kentucky at Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 53.737; Illinois 71.737
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 21; 131
Vegas Line: Illinois by 15 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-15 1/2); Under

Carlo CampanellaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas CowboysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas (7-6) kicked a field goal on the last play of the game to sneak by the Bengals last Sunday, 20-19, after trailing the entire game. The Cowboys were dominated on the line of scrimmage, only gaining 49 rushing yards while averaging a pathetic 2 yards per carry behind RB Murry. That late win 1 point victory came against Pittsburgh's AFC North division rival, Cincinnati, and these Cowboys played another close game against AFC North leader, Baltimore, losing by 2 points, 31-29. Dallas is a money burning 2-5 ATS in their last seven games due to a struggling running game that's been held to 85 rushing yards or less in 9 of their last 12 games. Expect defensive minded Steeler's HC Mike Tomlin to key on the Cowboy's running game and force mistake-prone QB Romo to pass the football this Sunday as his Steelers' defense is holding foes to only 93 rushing yards per game for 3.7 yards per carry! With Pittsburgh (7-6) tied with the Bengals for the final AFC Wildcard spot, backing them in this "must win" situation as we find these Cowboys at 1-7 ATS when they rush for 75 yards or less this year.

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina vs. San DiegoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina is 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS; last week it hammered Atlanta 30-20, and suffice it to say I believe this under-achieving team will carry that momentum over into this contest. QB Cam Newton had 287 yards through the air, and scored on a 72 yard run as well. In all the dynamic QB would rack up 116 yards on the ground.
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The Panthers would finish with 475 total yards of offense.
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After witnessing how possessed Newton and the offense was, I simply don't see any letdown this week:
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''I think this game allows me to have a little chip on my shoulder,'' Newton said after.
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The defensive unit looked decent, but has of course struggled with consistency throughout the year.
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Note that the total has gone "over" the number in four of the Panthers last five on the road.
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The Chargers are 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS; last week they won 34-24 at Pittsburgh as 7 point underdogs.
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Philip Rivers had three TD strikes, including two to Danario Alexander.
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Like the Panthers, this is an offensive unit which has been underachieving all season. They laid that notion to rest last week though.
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The defense, like Carolina's, has been a weak point all year, and looked mediocre at best last week.
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Note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten overall.
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Both of these team's QB's have something to prove. I believe this contest sets up as a classic shootout, with defense taking a back seat to the offensive fireworks, as each side opens up the playbook; consider a second look at the "over" in this one!

John Ryan

Washington at Seattle
Prediction: Seattle

The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will lose this game by fewer than eight points. In this particular situation, i don?t like playing the side as a combination bet involving the line and money line components. So, my recommendation is just bet it getting 8 ? or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 82-43 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1997. Play on road teams as a favorite or pick that are off a home loss by three points or less and playing only their second game in 8 days. Seattle has a huge edge in the rebounding department and the sim shows that Seattle will have at least four more rebounds than Washington. In past games, Washington is 23-49 ATS when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. Washington is also just 16-32 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite since 1997. Take Seattle.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina Panthers at San Diego ChargersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Carolina PanthersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here we go again, fading the Norvous one during ‘his’ time of the year. It’s not hard considering Turner is just 12-20 SU and 13-17-2 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU dog win, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS when facing a foe also off a SU dog win (thanks Panthers). And it’s not difficultknowing that favorites after facing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are 11-31-2 ATS, including an eye-popping 3-18-2 ATS if they’re a .600 or less team. The Panthers have been a time bomb waiting to explode all season and they finally detonated last week against NFC-leading Atlanta, blowing the Falcons into a 23-0 hole before coasting to a 30-20 decision. The Chargers’ shocking ambush of Pittsburgh buried countless survival pool participants but these guys haven’t won two straight games since opening the campaign 2-0 (3-9 SU since). Carolina owns a super 9-0 ATS mark in ‘4th quarter games’ versus a foe off a SU dog win and the dog has gone 5-1 ATS in Panthers’ road games this year. Diego’s 0-5 ATS record as revenge-minded chalk against an opponent off a double-digit win seals the deal. We’ll back the coach-QB combo of Rivera-Newton over a twosome that probably won’t be part of the plan in San Diego next year. Nothing could be finer. We recommend a 1-unit play on Carolina.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. DallasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last Sunday I won my free pick with underdog Minnesota at home, this week I am taking a favorite on the road.
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The Steelers are a very modest favorite on the road in Big D and I like them to win this game outright. The Steelers were burned and embarrassed last week by the San Diego Chargers. I expect a bounce back game from a team that is usually very consistent.
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The Dallas Cowboys got an emotional one point victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday, it will be tough this week to play that card against a Steelers team looking to bounce back from a double digit loss.
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We saw the Kansas City Chiefs suffer a emotional letdown after winning in Carolina after the loss of a teammate.The Cheifs were decimated by the Cleveland Browns last Sunday. I think its all together possible the same could happen to the Cowboys who are in a similar position here.
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The Cowboys are still just 5-8 ATS this year in all games and are 1-3 ATS in the last four games against the Steelers. Note: America's team has yet to cover the spread on home field this year.
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Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in games agains the NFC East this year. The Steelers were shocked last week as the Chargers took it to them from the opening kick-off, resulting in a 24-34 loss for the Steelers. The Steelers secondary was torched by the Chargers passing attack. I don't expect that to happen twice.
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Big Ben is back and will be starting his second game in a row. The Steelers need this game to stay in the race the AFC wild card spot. I expect Big Ben to come up clutch when the Steelers need him the most, just like in the past.
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Granted, this is a big game for Dallas as well, I just have more trust in a Steelers team that has been consistently coached and lead well by Mike Tomlin.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina vs. San Diego
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a letdown situation - for both teams. Last week saw Carolina pull off a much needed upset victory, at home, over division leader Atlanta 30-20. I was on that one, noting the situation greatly favored an undervalued Panthers team that was drawing Atlanta the week after clinching the NFC South and avenging its only previous loss of the season against New Orleans.
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San Diego pulled an upset of its own last Sunday, shocking the Steelers for the franchise's first-ever win in Pittsburgh. I was not on that one. Quite frankly, most people weren't as I'd rank it as the biggest shocker of the NFL weekend. Consider that the Chargers had lost seven of their previous eight games with the only win coming over Kansas City. They had scored 13 points in consecutive weeks before last week's upset. One thing to note here is that San Diego is 22-9 Under when priced as a home favorite of three points or less.
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Carolina is 36-14 Under all-time when coming off a division victory. They have gone Over the total each of the last five weeks, so they are overdue for an Under to cash in one of their games. Off their previous three victories, they have scored 7, 14 and 21 points. This is their only trip West all season.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City vs. Oakland
Pick: OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There are only two teams in the NFL with fewer wins than the Oakland Raiders, and they will face one of those when the Chiefs come to Oakland this Sunday. Kansas City has just two wins on the season, and they have lost five of six on the road. The Raiders have only three victories this season, and their last win came on the road in Kansas City by a score of 26-16.
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Darren McFadden ran for 114 yards on 29 carries in that game. McFadden played well in his return to the lineup last week, running for 52 yards on just 11 carries, and adding a couple of receptions for 12 yards and a touchdown. He will have an excellent chance to put up some big numbers this week, going up against a Chiefs defense that has really struggled against the run. Kansas City ranks 27th in the league allowing an average of over 130 yards rushing per game. Last week the Browns ran for 154 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in a 30-7 blowout win in Cleveland.
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The Chiefs passing game has been terrible all year, and the loss of their leading receiver Dwayne Bowe certainly isn't going to help matters this week. Brady Quinn had another stinker last week, completing less than half of his passes going 10 for 21 for 159 yards, an interception and no scores.
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These teams have had five meetings over the past two years, and Oakland is 4-1 SU, as well as 4-1 ATS in those matches.
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I think this battle of the bottom feeders favors the home team, and with Oakland only a small favorite, I like their chances.
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Take the Raiders to cover.

SpartanFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We cashed in last sunday with our free release on the Redskins over the Ravens although it took an overtime session to settle the issue. I firmly believe we have another winner here this week as we are going to turn to Mike Tomlin's Steelers and look for them to rebound from that shocking home defeat last week at the hands of the San Diego Chargers. That was a game that likely had more bettors scratching their heads than any this season. Just goes to show for the millionth time that in the NFL anything truly can happen and often does. Wagering over the course of an entire NFL season will result in some weekends that can easily humble the most grizzled veterans of handicapping. On the flip side here we have a Cowboys team that also to a large degree surprised some folks by going into Cincinnati and upsetting the upstart Bengals. I personally think there is some similarity here between the Cowboys situation and the Chiefs a couple weeks ago. After Belcher died the Chiefs summoned the will power and focus and rode the emotion to perhaps their finest performance of the season to date. Then the following weekend came out emotionally drained and it showed as they were pretty lackluster in the loss to Cleveland. Last sunday the Cowboys came together as a team under siege from the tragic death and arrest of a pair of teammates. I would not be the least bit surprised if they too are feeling the tanks are a little short on emotional fuel this sunday. And that does not bode well in my view with, well lets just speak plainly here, a pissed off Steelers team coming into town that has it's own business it drastically needs to tend to. I know also there are some of you that just love to have a trend you can hang your hat on to support the cause and I will gladly oblige you. The stubborn fact is Tony Romo is a pathetic 8-18 as a starting QB after November 30th. When the truly elite quarterbacks reach the stretch run in the NFL they rise up and seize the moment. Clearly Romo has not risen anywhere in his career at this stage of the season. Plus, frankly the fact that even though he will likely play I don't expect Dez Bryant to be the threat he typically would be and that hurts the Boys chances as well. The Steelers defend the pass very, very well. Okay, you guys can clearly see where this is going. I say take Mike Tomlin and his cranky Steelers to go into Dallas and take care of business.

Accuscore

San Diego Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers Over 44.5

The computer sets this line at 48 total points with the Over occurring in nearly 60 percent of simulations. This is a four-star pick by the computer which has gone 10-3 picking totals in San Diego games this season. Both teams are trending towards going over this season with the Panthers going 7-5 and San Diego going 8-5.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Dallas Cowboys

The Steelers are in need of a win to stay in the AFC playoff picture. Dallas is realistically still in contention for the NFC East, but I put far more faith in Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin than I do in Tony Romo and Jason Garrett. AccuScore projects Pittsburgh as 3 points favorites and winning outright 55.8 percent of the time by 2.3 points on average. The Steelers have the 5th best run defense in the league, and Dallas had an epic time trying to win ball games without a running game this year while DeMarco Murray was out with injury. Pittsburgh probably wins relatively easily if it can limit Murray and force Tony Romo to make 40+ throws.

Priority Sports Info

New York vs Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -1

The Falcons looked and played very poorly last Sunday vs the Panthers, meanwhile the Giants pounded the Saints. I am looking for the Falcons to bounce back at home and win the game.

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis vs. HoustonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: IndianapolisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texans are a paper tiger, a fraud. They spent much of the season beating up on the weak, and even those wins haven't come easily of late. 2-11 Jacksonville scored 37 against the Texans stop unit, making Chad Henne look like a pro bowler with a 354 yard, four TD effort off the bench.
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Houston managed to beat the 4-9 Lions in OT only because Lions head coach Jim Schwartz threw an illegal challenge flag that resulted in an 81 yard TD that should never have been. Against the 4-9 Titans miserable defense, the Texans managed only five first downs in the entire second half. And we all saw what happened on Monday Night when Houston faced a 'real' team at New England -- a complete, confidence sapping annihilation.
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The Texans injury woes continue to mount. Head coach Gary Kubiak: "I'm really concerned about the health of our team right now....it's something we have to deal with." Kubiak has reason for concern. Houston's defense hasn't been the same since pro bowl LB Brian Cushing got hurt back in October. In recent weeks, they've lost LB Brooks Reed and CB Brice McCain to long term injuries. CB's Johnathan Joseph and Alan Ball are both banged up, as is LB Bradie James. Center Antonie Caldwell is hurt. Most of these guys aren't well known, highly publicized superstars, but they're the core of the team.
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While the Texans are a dramatically overvalued commodity right now, Indy remains at the other end of the value spectrum. Well regarded 'advanced metrics' site FootballOutsiders.com has them ranked as the 28th best team in the NFL, based on their statistical profile -- right between Tennessee and Arizona. But anyone who's actually watched the Colts play knows that this team is not about stats -- they're about heart and clutch efforts in the fourth quarter. Indy certainly isn't going to lay down to Houston -- heck, they're still live to win the division, perhaps even to earn a first round bye in the playoffs!
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Yes, the Colts have had some ugly road losses this year - -at Chicago in Andrew Luck's first game, at the Jets and Patriots in Andrew Luck's two worst games. But after winning seven of their last eight, including confidence inducing come-from-behind efforts in each of the last two weeks, this team has no business as an underdog of more than a touchdown to any mediocre foe. Take the Colts.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jacksonville vs. MiamiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: JacksonvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dolphins were looking like a sleeper playoff team at 3-4 but they have since lost five of the last six games to fall out of the playoff picture. Now Miami has to regroup and is being asked to lay a big number this Sunday.
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Personally I don't think the Dolphins deserve to favored by a touchdown over any team and they have proven this has been the case for a while. Including their 0-2 ATS record this season, Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as favorites of more than a field goal.
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The Jaguars are sitting at 2-11 this season which is tied for the worst record in the NFL with Kansas City but they have been playing pretty well of late. They lost a game in overtime at Houston and bounced right back to defeat Tennessee at home. Jacksonville then traveled to Buffalo and got beat pretty bad but the weather played a major role in that game. The Jaguars hung tough last week at home against the Jets but lost by a touchdown and now they hit the road again where they have been pretty decent.
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Jacksonville is just 1-5 on the highway but it has covered five of those six games with the only spread loss being that game in Buffalo. The offense has looked a lot better with Chad Henne at quarterback. His numbers have gotten progressively worse the last four games but the last two came against solid secondaries and that is not the case this week. He also will likely be getting receiver Cecil Shorts back. In addition, heading back to Miami is big for Henne as he will be out to prove something.
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Miami's offense meanwhile is going the wrong way. After averaging 21.3 ppg through eight games, the Dolphins have averaged just 14 ppg over their last five games. Jacksonville's defense is anything but stout but it does possess a solid passing defense and it has yielded a total of only 216 passing yards the last two games. Miami does not have the passing game to have success so it will take to the ground which will eat clock and that favors a large underdog.
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Jacksonville is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games while the Dolphins are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg. Additionally, Jacksonville falls into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 118-70 ATS (62.8 percent) since 1983. Look for a much closer than expected game here.

Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore RavensFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Denver BroncosFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver has had three extra days to prepare for this contest. The Broncos have won 8 in a row SU, and have posted 31 or more points in 6 of those 8 wins. They have secured their playoff spot and are tied with New England for the #2 seed in the AFC. In his career, Peyton Manning has won 8 straight starts vs. Baltimore. On the season, the 4-Time MVP has tallied 3812 YP and a 30/10 TD/INT ratio. Thomas and Decker (1987 YR and 16 TDs combined) are a dangers receiving corps while Knowshon Moreno has filled in nicely at RB. The defense has 39 sacks and only yielded 17.8 PPG during their current streak. Baltimore fired OC, Cam Cameron after LWs 31-28 OT loss to Washington. Joe Flacco and the "O" has not had a solid outing in over a month and that performance was against Oakland. I don't see the unit moving the chains so easy vs. the #4 defense in the League. The Ravens "D" isn’t as ferocious as it once was, allowing the Steelers and Redskins erratic offenses to post 54 combined points the L2 games. They may see the return of Lewis and Suggs but will sorely miss CB, Asa Jackson, especially with facing Manning. Take Denver.