NellyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jacksonville Jaguars + over Miami DolphinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dolphins fell to 5-8 last week and after a very encouraging start to the season Miami has lost five of the last six games. The last two weeks Miami has played pretty close with elite teams however and this is still a very tough team to rush against. Jacksonville is 31st in the NFL in yards per game on both sides of the ball and the Jaguars are surprisingly the worst rushing team in the NFL. Both teams likely will be passing in this game and this could be a game that plays out as a higher scoring affair despite a very low total with two limited offensive teams. Miami has failed to cover in all three games as a favorite this season and the Dolphins will be a tough team to trust laying a full touchdown in any match-up. Only two times have the Dolphins won by more than four points and they caught a lot of breaks in both of those games. Jacksonville has played four straight competitive games. Look for a motivated Chad Henne to have a strong game against the team that dumped him and Miami is 10-33-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2003 while the Jaguars have covered in six of the last seven road games.
John Ryan
Carolina Panthers vs. San Diego Chargers
Play; Carolina Panthers
The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game. Given projections like this from my simulator, I always like playing a combination bet using a 7.5* on the line and a 2.5* using the money line. Carolina has a long proven history when playing struggling teams. They are an impressive 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a bad team winning between 25% to 40% of their games with this game taking place in the second half of the season in all games played since 1992. Chargers are immersed in a 0-7 ATS run in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-15 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2006. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and now facing an opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 45% of the games played based on the criteria of this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. Cam newton has been given fewer progressions to make and it has paid off big for the Panthers as he has thrown 11 TD and just 2 picks in his last 6 games. The Chargers stunning win against the Steelers last week marked only the third game where they had no turnovers. The Chargers are doing a nice job against the run, but teams are attacking their pass defense. Opponents have run the ball just 38% of the time and now the Chargers have to defend both run and pass threats with Newton under center. using the ‘belly reads’ has made it very difficult for opposing linebackers to get enough depth in coverage and simply when they turn their back to get that depth is when newton takes off with the ball. Simple enough for the Panthers, but a true nightmare for the Charger defense. Take the Panthers.
Kelso
Eastern Kentucky at Illinois
Pick: Eastern Kentucky
It is difficult to gauge just how good Eastern Kentucky is but the fact the Colonels are 2-0 on the road says there certainly is some substance there and I am comfortable in taking the 15 ½ against an Illinois team that has remained undefeated while playing down to some of its opposition this season. While Illinois has a giant statement win at Gonzaga, 85-74, it is of note against weaker teams has played with less fire. For instance, the Fighting Illini beat Western Carolina by 8, Gardner-Webb by 1 and Hawaii by 1 in overtime. Eastern Kentucky will come to play on the big stage and has the firepower to keep it within the number all the way.
Dwayne Bryant
Jaguars +7.5
Yes, I know. It's the Jaguars. But Miami doesn't belong laying more than a TD against any NFL team. They're 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season and the last time they were chalk by a TD or so, they were spanked by the Titans, 37-3. Losing left tackle Jake Long to a triceps injury two weeks ago certainly hurts the Miami offense.
The Jags actually play much better on the road (5-1 ATS this season) and they have a travel edge here despite being the visiting team. While the Jags only traveled about 500 miles from Jacksonville to Miami, the Dolphins had to travel across three time zones (about 4,200 miles) to come home after playing in San Francisco last Sunday. I'm sure Jags QB Chad Henne will be plenty focused and motivated to beat his former team. I'm grabbing the points with JACKSONVILLE, as I'm expecting a close game.
Joe Gavazzi
Kansas City +4
History, fundamentals and current form combine for an underdog winner with KC. The dog has covered 11 consecutive games in this series. The Chiefs stand 8-3 SU 9-2 ATS at this series site. While KC is suffering through a 2-11 SU season, it is arguable that the Raiders season has been less successful. They are 3-10 SU ATS with a League worst -104 net AFP. They enter on a 6 games losing streak and are 1-7 ATS home recently. They feature a League worst defense allowing 31 PPG and despite the return of RB McFadden last week they ran just 16 times for 61 yards vs. Broncos. For the season they average 22 rushing attempts for 81 yards. There is little wonder they are 3-10 ATS. Chiefs at least have a prolific ground attack which averages 32 rushes for 150 yards. Against the Raiders defensive front allowing 131/4.6, they should clearly dominate overland. Combined with historical edges and Oakland's current form; it is no surprise that the Chiefs get this victory.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Giants +1 over ATLANTA: I feel the G-Men are ready for another late season run, They may not make it back to the SB, but they are primed to finish the season. I know that Matty Ice is dynamite at home, but The Giants have been one of the better road teams the last few years and as good as Matt Ryan has been I would rather have Eli at the end of what should be a close game. The Atlanta offense seems to be slowing down some as they have scored just 22.5 ppg in their last 4 games and a closer look shows that those 4 games were vs N. Orleans, Tampa, Carolina and Arizona, which are not some of the best defenses in the league. The Giants are 25th in the league in total defense, but Atlanta does have no running game and that should allow a strong Giant pass rush to put some heat on Ryan. The Falcons are not playing their best ball right now, while the Giants are in late season form. Look for the Giants to pull away in the 4th.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tampa Bay/ New Orleans Over 54: This should be a fun one and should put up around the same 63 points these teams put up in their first meeting. Drew Brees has has a few bad games in a row, but he did throw for 420 yards and 4 TD's last time these teams met and he will once again be facing the worst pass defense in the league. Just how bad is the Tampa pass defense? Well they have allowed 311.6 ypg overall and 312.7 ypg, plus last week they allowed Nick Foles to complete 32 of 51 tosses for 381 yards. There is no way they slow down Brees and this offense in this one. On the other side we have a Tampa offense that has grown through the year, especially on the road where they have averaged 28.7 ppg on the year. Josh Freeman been good this year and the Tampa offense has averaged 239 ypg and 7.3 ypa, which is 7th in the league. Josh should have a good game vs a New Orleans defense that allowed 284 ypg passing on 7.9 ypa this year. Saint home games have averaged 54.8 ppg, while Tampa road games have put up 55 ppg. I feel that these teams can put up a few more than that and get this game into the 60's. KEY TREND--- The Over is 12-1 the last 13 games when Tampa Bay is off a home game.
HOUSTON -10 over Indianapolis: This is the perfect spot for a Houston blowout of the Colts. Yes they are playing on a short week but that can sometimes help a team off an embarrassing loss as they want to get right back out on the field. Also playing a familiar foe shouldn’t hurt a team that that is on a short week. Houston’s defense has struggled of late but Andrew Luck is tied for the lead in the NFL in INT’s so their vaunted pass rush should be able to pressure Andrew into some mistake. In the other side this very good Houston offense should get back on track vs a Indy defense that is 22nd overall and 23rd in points allowed (25.3 ppg). Just feel that Houston is in desperation mode and will not let this one slip away. A win here gives them the division and they will get it by at least 2 TD’s.
Harry Bondi
ST. LOUIS (-2.5) over Minnesota
For a team that went 1-1 against the mighty Niners and really should have gone 2-0, the Rams really aren't getting much respect here from the oddsmaker. The Vikings are coming off a big upset win over Black-and-Blue Division rival Chicago and have now been thrust into the unfamiliar role of chasing a playoff berth. Rams Head Coach Jeff Fisher is at his best when facing one-dimensional offenses, so look for St. Louis to limit AP's production and make QB Christian Ponder try and beat him. Vikes have struggled on the road, going 1-5 ATS, while the Rams have covered 4 of 6 in the home dome and are 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The price is right. Lay the short number.
Erin Rynning
Detroit at Arizona
Play: Under
Something must give today when Detroit heads to the desert to face the Cardinals. The Lions have lost five games in a row, but the Cardinals have been much worse having dropped nine straight. However, we’ll be focusing on the total for this contest. The Cardinals were embarrassed in grand fashion last week losing to division rival Seattle 58-0. If there’s a unit to rebound from last week’s thumping it will be Arizona’s defense. This is a prideful group with solid talent; keep in mind the defense slowed down the Patriots early in the campaign when very few teams have. They’re at their best with their pass defense as well, which is a strong match-up against the Lions – cornerback Patrick Peterson will shadow Calvin Johnson. However, their offense is entirely a different story. The musical chairs will continue today at quarterback with rookie Ryan Lindley under center. He’s been awful with a 42 QB rating and zero touchdowns and five interceptions. Of course, behind this offensive line, many NFL quarterbacks would struggle mightily. Arizona lost their back-up center last week and will shift their line once again today – sandwiched around two rookie offensive tackles. It’s close to a college battery with quarterback/offensive line for the Cardinals. I think the Lions will face a more uphill battle against the Cardinals defense, while their own defensive line can control Arizona’s inept offense. Play this game UNDER the total.