Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 18

Hollywood Sports

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs (5-8) should play with a new sense of urgency after Todd Haley was relieved of his head coaching duties earlier this week since all the players know they are playing to keep their jobs. Kansas City has covered 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog of more than 10 points. And the Chiefs have covered 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Green Bay (13-0) comes off a dominant 46-16 win over Oakland last week in Lambeau Field -- but they have then failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite of more than ten points. Take Kansas City plus all the points in this one.

Scott Rickenbach

Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs

The fact that Kansas City is without QB Matt Cassel and RB Jamaal Charles is giving us some solid line value here. Though the Chiefs got blown out by the Jets last week, Kansas City had covered the spread in each of their prior two games. Before giving up 37 points to the Jets last week the Chiefs had held their last two opponents to an average of just 8 points per game. Yes, Green Bay's offense has been a "class of their own" this season but note that last week's blowout of the Raiders was just the 4th time this season (in 13 games) that the Packers have won by a margin of more than 12 points. The Green Bay defense has been porous throughout this season and the Packers are on a long-term run of 1-4 ATS when they are a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. In fact, overall as a big favorite, the Pack has not fared well as they're on a long-term 13-21 ATS run as a favorite of 10 or more points. Also, in a road game with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points Green Bay is 3-5 ATS the last three seasons combined. Look for the Chiefs to improve to 13-4 ATS when they are installed as an underdog of 10 points or more. Kansas City is 7-3 ATS this season when they are installed as an underdog. Based on all of the above, it's certainly worth considering a small play on Kansas City plus the big points on Sunday afternoon.

Carlo Campanella

Cleveland Browns vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -6½

Arizona is just 6-7, but one of the hottest teams in the NFL during their current 5-1 SU & ATS winning run and should have no trouble continuing this run as they host a Browns crew that's dropped 6 of their last 7 games (1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS). Arizona has been solid at home all year, owning a 4-2 SU & ATS record while beating Playoff caliber teams like Dallas and San Francisco. You'd have to go back almost 2 months, to October 23rd, to find the last time Arizona lost at home and that came against another Playoff caliber team in Pittsburgh (10-3). Willing to lay the points against a struggling Browns offense that hasn't passed for more than 225 yards in 9 STRAIGHT games and only did it once in their first 13 games!

Spartan

Green Bay -14

Clearly a big number for a road favorite and laying these kind of points on the road in the NFL is pretty much taboo. However I'm making an exception this week in the case of the Packers and the Chiefs. I reside right in the middle of Chiefs country and generally have my finger on the pulse of this team. In fact I'm actually 8-2 this season on games where I have either been with or against this club so I think the record backs me up. I'll be at Arrowhead this sunday to take this one in. It's my opinion there will likely be as many Packers fans in the stands as Chiefs. Orton may be under center for Kansas City but even so he won't be 100%. If not then rookie Ricky Stanzi could be getting his first action under fire. The Packers are in a zone right now and clearly are intending to make every effort to run the table. The Chiefs are frankly a dumpster fire right now and have finally cut ties with head coach Todd Haley who evidently had serious conflicts with the management. Sometimes you can over think games guys and this is a classic case. The Chiefs struggle mightily to put any kind of points on the scoreboard and now they have to try and keep up with the Green Bay Packers. Sorry but I'm just not seeing it. The fact is teams playing after giving their coach the axe are a miserable 0-6 against the number as a home dog since 96. That is weak my friends. This line is where it is for a very valid reason, the odds makers know full and well that Green Bay could very well humiliate the Chiefs on their home turf. I say two touchdowns are perfectly reasonable. Take the champs to keep things rolling along Sunday.

MATT FARGO

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Indianapolis Colts

This is arguably the last chance that the Colts have to win at home as next week, they host their home finale against Houston which is right in the thick of the top seed in the AFC so the Texans will be out to win. Indianapolis has covered its last two games, both of which came on the road as massive underdogs, but the public continues to fade the Colts which is the case again this week. 85 percent of the early action is on Tennessee yet the line has actually dropped in some places and remained the same in others.

The Titans playoff hopes took a big hit last week as they lost at home to New Orleans. We were on Tennessee in that game and it was a disappointing game to watch at the end. Tennessee got down to the New Orleans 24-yard line with over two minutes left and all of its timeouts but failed on fourth down and after getting the ball back again, got down to the New Orleans five-yard line but failed to score. That was a demoralizing loss so getting up for this game is going to be a big challenge.

For the Titans, quarterback Jake Locker will likely get the start as Matt Hasselbeck is nursing a calf injury. Locker was solid last week although he did miss some open targets and while his passer is a solid 96.6, his completion percentage is a dismal 46 percent. The Colts passing defense is certainly not great but a lot of it depends who they are playing. They have allowed 212 yards passing or less in three of their last four games and have been lit up three time but those were against Brady, Brees and Roethlisberger.

Offensively for the Colts, Dan Orlovsky has taken over at quarterback and he has led them to two straight fourth quarter covers. His passer rating is deceiving as his big numbers have come in garbage time but he can have a lot of success throughout the game here. The Titans are 22nd in overall defense including 20th in passing defense and they have allowed 282 or more yards in three of their last four games. Indianapolis put up 399 total yards in the first meeting, the second highest offensive output this season.

The Colts fall into two solid situations. Play on home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 71-32 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1983. also, we play on home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage les than .250 in the second half of the season after three or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons.

Eric Williams

Panthers vs. Texans
Play: Over 45

The Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans are combining to average 49.5 total points per game this season while allowing 43.3 points per game this season defensively, leading me to have some faith in the fact that the Over is going to play out in this matchup. The Panthers have played Over the O/U Total in two straight games and three of their last four games overall while Houston has topped their Over/Under Total in three of their last five games overall. The Over is 5-0-1 in Carolina’s last half-dozen games versus a team with a winning record and 7-3-1 in the Panthers’ last 11 road games overall.

Scott Spreitzer

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Denver Broncos

Lost in all of the talk about Tim's "Tebow-ing" is the fact that he has brought a confidence to his teammates that's almost unmatched. Call it luck, will, talent, hard work, or a mix of all of the above, the bottom line is that this team feels like it should win every time they put on the pads. And the fact is, it's not just late game heroics by Tebow. So many players are making contributions, from Tebow to McGahee, from Eric Decker to Von Miller, to the special teams and all points in between. And HC John Fox should be Coach of the Year for changing his game plan - or better yet, overhauling his game plan on the fly. New England does enter with the NFL's second best offense. But the defense can look horrible at times, ranked last in the league in yards passing allowed and in total yards allowed. New England is hurting so much in the secondary that they have a couple of receivers playing in the defensive backfield. And last week, the defense was slammed on the ground by Washington. Should you really lay 7 points on the road against an 8-5 team playing at home? And one that's on a 7-1 run to boot? I don't believe it's a good move. But public perception still sees a huge difference between the names themselves...New England over Denver, and Brady over Tebow. The value lies with the home dog and we'll grab the points with the Broncos on Sunday.

Stephen Nover

Packers @ Chiefs
Play: Under 46.5

The Kansas City Chiefs don't move by yards. They don't even move the ball by feet. Try inches. Their offense is absolutely brutal minus Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki.

The Chiefs have managed only two touchdowns in their last four games - and one of these came on a lucky Hail Mary pass. They are averaging 7.5 points in their last six games!

This lack of offense certainly figured in offensive-minded Todd Haley getting the boot this week. Defensive-minded Romeo Crennel is the Chiefs' interim coach now. You know he'll have a very conservative game plan.

The Chiefs obviously want to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hands as much as possible. The problem for Crennel are three-fold: His offensive line is horrible. His running backs are way below average with playmaking Charles gone for the season and his quarterback choice is Tyler Palko, rookie Ricky Stanzi and Kyle Orton.

Palko has a 2-to-8 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his four starts. He's clearly not the answer. Stanzi isn't close to being ready and Orton, Crennel's best choice, has a badly damaged right index finger.

The Packers give up yardage, but they rank a respectable 15th in points allowed. They are extremely opportunistic with 32 takeaways. If you discount their game against the Giants and a hot Eli Manning, the Packers are giving up an average of 16 points in their last four games.

Green Bay won't have its best running back James Starks, nor its best wide receiver, Greg Jennings. The Packers have tremendous wide receiver depth, but none of their other wideouts has Jennings' versatility and ability to play each receiver spot.

Rookie Randall Cobb and erratic James Jones will be seeing more action now with Jennings out. Rodgers doesn't have the timing with them like he had with Jennings. Neither Cobb nor Jones are consistent.

The Chiefs will be motivated to play hard at home for the likeable Crennel. Tamba Hali is an elite pass rusher and rookie Justin Houston is coming on with four sacks during the last two weeks. They give the Chiefs two dangerous edge pass rushers. Green Bay's pass protection has just been mediocre.

The Packers aren't going to be inclined to open up their attack. They want to hone their ground game for the playoffs, which means a heavy dose of Ryan Grant and fullback John Kuhn, two mediocre runners.

Mike McCarthy showed last week that he will pull Rodgers early if the Packers jump out to a commanding lead. The combination of the Packers being less explosive than normal by their own design and the Chiefs' total lack of offense should spell under the total.

Tony George

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Tennessee Titans -6½

I am all over the Titans. What wins in the NFL late in the season? That would be running the ball, and Tennessee's Chris Johnson is back in form and faces a division opponent with a playoff life hanging in the balance here. Colts QB situation is a joke, and at 0-13 they will not beat the Titans off a tough loss last week, but with the Colts allowing 145 yards a game on the ground, this one is over early. When you can run the ball, that opens up play action passing, and the Colts are allowing a whopping 72% completion rate against opponents. So much is made of Peyton Manning being out and the reason for once might Colts demise, but it is their defense that is as much to blame, and with so many 3 and outs by their offense, fatigue and depth at skill positions is being exploited by opponents.

SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO –3½ over Seattle

With three straight losses, Chicago’s playoff hopes aren’t quite down the drain but they are circling the bowl. Knowing that a trip to Green Bay is on deck and then finishing in division at Minnesota, this one becomes crucial. It sets up very well as price may be reduced because of the imprint placed in the betting public’s mind after the Seahawks consecutive blowout wins in a pair of prime timers over Philadelphia and St. Louis. The Seahags stock is high and the Bears stock is low and buying low and selling high usually works out well. Tavaris Jackson is a bad QB so that leaves Marshall Lynch and a bag of Skittles as Seattle’s main weapon. The Bears defense has to come up big and they know it. They have to dig down extra deep because they still have a good shot to make the playoffs and should they do so, Jay Cutler could return. Seattle’s last two aforementioned wins, both at CenturyLink Field, does not provide enough qualifications to be slotted in this price range against a cold-weather and desperate host. Play: Chicago –3½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Carolina +6 over HOUSTON

This one appears short-priced and with good reason. The Texans have proven to be gritty during this seven-game win streak considering the injuries to several key personnel. But with division secured, don’t be surprised to see them take an unintentional afternoon off. While rookie QB T.J. Yates has filled in admirably, still prefer rookie-of-year candidate Cam Newton and his versatile offense to third-stringer Yates. Let’s also not ignore that despite being 4-9, the Panthers have blown seven, fourth quarter leads. Houston has faced Blaine Gabbert twice, Colt McCoy, a regressing Josh Freeman and rookie Andy Dalton during current streak. They also finish the season against Indianapolis and Tennessee, the latter at home so two more wins for the taking are right there and thus, a hiccup here would not surprise. Definite upset possibility. Play Carolina +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Washington +7 over N.Y. GIANTS

Those pesky Giants. Can never count them out, can you? But for whatever reason, they are better for our pocketbooks when taking points. That thought is corroborated when you track the G-men’s 1-11 mark versus spread in past 12 home games against teams with a losing record. Jabar Gaffney’s “Lambeau Leap” into the lap of an unconcerned Patriots fan and the surrounding Redskins fans was a bigger flop than Danny Snyder has been as a team owner. So yeah. the Redskins have their warts but their past four contests have all been competitive with Dallas, the Jets and Patriots included in that set. There is not much separating the NFC East teams and Washington plays its division tough with five covers in past six against its foes. Again, buy low, sell high. Play: Washington +7 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

ST. LOUIS +265/+7 over Cincinnati

We’d rather watch the Kardashians than the Rams but the Bengals are no great shakes lately, having dropped four of five and not covering a spread since November 6. Rams happy to be home after a couple of games on west coast and with Cincy hurting in its secondary, the host should hang around with a chance to win it outright. Cinci comes in here very demoralized after last second loss to Texans last week. That followed games against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh again. The Bengals are emotionally spent after that set and thus, getting up for this game with two home games remaining to close out season is a daunting task at best. Nobody wants anything to do with the Rams right now. They were blown out on Monday night and that has influence on the public. Having said that, this one is all about fading the Bengals in a horrible situational spot. Play: St. Louis +265 (Risking 1 unit). Play: St. Louis +6½ (Risking 1.15 units to win 1).

THE REST

INDIANAPOLIS +7 over Tennessee

The Titans need to win out in order to qualify for the post-season but with a pair of dinged up quarterbacks and the possibility of overlooking these winless Colts, an upset would not surprise. Indianapolis actually outgained Tennessee in earlier contest, that one held in Nashville. Play: Indianapolis +7 (No bets).

MINNESOTA +6½ over New Orleans

Saints may not be as goofy as the Cowboys, Chargers or Eagles but with previous losses at Tampa and St. Louis while barely holding on in Tennessee last week, we’re not anxious to endorse them at this price when outside of Louisiana. For a two-win team, the Vikings remain tenacious and should maintain that here. Note that you can take back +7½ at SIA and lay a quarter. Play: Minnesota +6½ (No bets).

KANSAS CITY +14 over Green Bay

You look at all the key injuries suffered by the Chiefs this season, and you wonder if a head coach deserves to be fired under those circumstances. Maybe not but that neck-beard in itself was reason enough to can Haley. Instead of just looking like a homeless dude, he has taken an important first step toward becoming one. Now back to the game. A premium is required when backing the Packers and despite obvious disparity between these two clubs, we can’t advise overpaying for the prized commodity. QB Kyle Orton should be able to start, a honeymoon surge is often occurs when a new coach arrives and Green Bay is being cautious with its starters after losing one last week. Play: Kansas City +14 (No bets).

OAKLAND +1 over Detroit

There’s not much shame these days in getting blown out in Green Bay and with the Raiders returning home after dropping a pair on the road, don’t be surprised to see them rebound against these Lions. Detroit’s defense is imperceptibly poor and Oakland gets a playmaker back. Play: Oakland +1 (No bets).

ARIZONA –7 over Cleveland

Cardinals are hot. Browns are not. With a little luck and three winnable games ahead of them, Arizona could find its way to the playoffs. Cleveland’s offense remains one of the lamest units around and one that is incapable of trading points against a capable counterpart. Play: Arizona –7 (No bets).

New England –6½ over DENVER

The thing about fairly tales is that there is usually a gloomy part before the happy ending. We’re not sure how the Tim Tebow story will end but the sad part is about to occur. Denver’s miraculous run has been aided by some fortuitous scheduling. However, with the Patriots stopping by, the gig is officially up. Play: New England –6½ (No bets).

PHILADELPHIA –3 over N.Y. Jets

Nothing can be said about the Eagles that hasn’t been said before but one thing they can do is sack opposing quarterbacks (42, second in the league). With an easily rattled Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets, expect Philadelphia to apply enough pressure to create ample opportunity for a nice win. Getting up for the Jets is not difficult, as everyone loves to beat this cocky intruder. Play: Philadelphia –3 (No bets).

Baltimore –2½ over SAN DIEGO

Defeating the Jaguars and Bills does not suddenly make everything okay in Chargerland. However, those two wins present us with a glorious opportunity to spot a small price with a superior Ravens squad. Baltimore’s disruptive defense too much for San Diego to contend with. Still, we’d proceed with caution as laying road points in a featured game is a bad habit and a bankroll killer. Play: Baltimore –2½ (No bets).

Sean Murphy

Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +14

This is one of those spots where you just have to plug your nose and hit submit.

The Packers are the best team in football. There's no denying that.

In fact, there are very few negatives I can point to when it comes to the defending Super Bowl champs.

What I will say is this; the Pack are nursing some key injuries on both sides of the football, and have to feel like they can name their score in this particular matchup. There are no 'style points' in the NFL, a win is a win, and that's all Green Bay will be after on Sunday.

Note that the Packers have yet to win a road game by more than 12 points this season. That's saying something considering the wide margins they've built in some of those road contests. Even on days when we've seen them at their absolute best (ie. in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day), they still haven't posted an absolute rout away from home.

This doesn't appear to be the spot for that trend to change.

As bad as the Chiefs have been at times this season, Arrowhead Stadium is still a pretty tough place to play. Note that Kansas City is an even 3-3 SU and ATS at home.

Although they lost 37-10 at the hands of the Jets last Sunday, I don't believe this team has quit. There's reason for them to be motivated this week, following the firing of head coach Todd Haley (he wasn't all that well-liked in the locker room), and the insertion of Kyle Orton at quarterback. Orton certainly represents an upgrade over Tyler Palko.

The Chiefs are as healthy as they've been all season, and I'm confident we'll see them give the Packers their best shot on Sunday. This is essentially Kansas City's Super Bowl, look for the game to play out accordingly.

Nelly

Buffalo + over Miami

The Bills continue a freefall with a sixth consecutive loss last week and the defense has really struggled. Matt Moore had played great for the Dolphins but he left last week's game leaving former Bill J.P. Losman in charge in the defeat. Moore should be back this week but the warm weather Dolphins may be greeted by snow in Buffalo, also playing its first game after Tony Sparano's firing. The team seemed to rally behind Sparano with three straight wins after the 0-7 start but the efforts have been less promising in recent weeks. Miami won 35-8 when these teams met a few weeks ago but the Bills offense should have a lot of opportunities in this game with a successful passing attack. As slight home underdogs Buffalo is worth a look to break the streak.

Sam Martin

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Detroit Lions

The Lions got back on track last week with a big 14-point win against the Minnesota Vikings, and we can forgive them for losing their prior two games against two of the best teams in the league in the Packers and Saints. Minnesota's offense isn't anywhere close to the caliber of those two teams, and neither is the Raiders scoring unit. Oakland lost both of their last two games by a combined 50 points and we look for Detroit to hang another big number on them this afternoon in another blowout Raiders loss. 5* Play on Detroit.

Wunderdog Sports

Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -3.5

Like so many teams over the last six weeks, the Chicago Bears were Tebow-ed last week by the Denver Broncos. They gave up an improbable 59-yard FG that sent the game into overtime, thanks to Marion Barber forgetting to stay in-bounds in regulation. Then Barber coughed up the ball on a likely touchdown jaunt in overtime to give the Broncos a chance at the game winning field goal. As a result of their loss (in a game they should have won), we get some line value here. The Bears caught a very tough break when Jay Cutler went down with an injury, but Caleb Hanie managed the game well last week with no INTs while Marion Barber carried the offense, gaining over 100 yards. It was the Bears defense that has now allowed just 23 points in the last two games that has stepped up. Seattle at 6-7 is not going to make the playoffs and has never been a very good road team. This season they have played four on the road vs. winning teams and lost three of them by 10 points or more. Last year they lost six of their eight on the road by 15 or more points. This season the Seahawks average just 15.5 points per game on the road and that's not going to cut it here. Seattle is anything but a momentum-driven team as they are a pathetic 3-22-1 ATS in their last 26 after winning their last game by 14 or more. Meanwhile the Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. Even with Hanie under center, the Bears are the better team here at home. Take Chicago in this one.