James Patrick Sports
Browns vs. Cardinals
Cleveland has a stubborn defense (20 ppg) and doesn’t lose much with back-up QB Seneca Wallace at the controls. We actually look for the Browns offense to score more points with Wallace under center. The Cardinals are out of the playoff picture but this has been a team on the rise, winning five of the last six games with wins over Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco. With both starting QBs questionable most would think this to be a low scoring defensive battle but the Over is (18-8) in Cardinals last (26) games in December, (6-2) in Cardinals last (8) home games and (5-1) in Cardinals last (6) games in Week 15. Cleveland will finish the season with matchups against division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh so their offensive players best enjoy the pickings in this game. Let the scoring begin in a Back-Up QB Duel in the Desert. Should be an interesting game in Phoenix. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday complimentary selection is Cleveland - Arizona Over the Total.
Marc Lawrence
Washington Redskins at NY Giants
Play: Washington Redskins
After riding a 4-game losing skid, the Jersey Giants awoke from the dead to steal a win at Dallas and now control their fate in the NFC East - despite owning the 3rd-worst defense in the league (392 YPG). With that comes thoughts of the origin of the Big Apple choke, or in this case 'shoo fly pie and apple pan dowdy.' That's because teams who upset the Cowboys are just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their next game when facing a division foe coming off a loss. The Deadskins enter off a hard-fought 34-27 home loss to New England, the team's 8th defeat in its last nine games, but their 3-0 ITS effort in the last three games tells us this bunch of native Americans has not tossed in the towel. Plus, you can rest assured that squinty-eyed head coach Mike Shanahan has not forgotten being embarrassed by the Giants at home in the season's first game, 28-14. We didn't have to look long to find a treasure trove of numbers backing the visitors. Washington is 9-0 ATS away versus a division opponent off a road game, 12-1 ATS as December dogs off a loss when playing the role of avenging foe, and 5-1 ATS away from D.C. when taking on an NFC East adversary off a SU and ATS win. Need more? Coach Shanahan's perfect 7-0 ATSmark as a dog of 6 or more points when his team owns a win percentage of less than .400 on the season cements it. Grab the points in this division duel. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Seahawks / Bears Under 38.5
Seattle, with Matt Hassellbeck gone, erratic QB Tarvaris Jackson (11 TDs, 11 INTs) has stepped in and the ground game has been strong the second half of the season because RB Marshawn Lynch has been healthy. But now Left tackle Russell Okung will miss the remainder of this season after being diagnosed with a torn right pectoral muscle. Okung is the fourth starter on Seattle's offense to be lost for the season in the past four weeks. Rookie offensive linemen James Carpenter and John Moffitt suffered season-ending knee injuries four days apart, and receiver Sidney Rice was placed on injured reserve after suffering his second concussion in three games. The offense is 25th in passing, 23rd in rushing, while the defense is 18th against the pass allowing 236 yards per game. The Bears are a different team without QB Jay Cutler, who broke his thumb and will miss 6-8 weeks, a huge blow. QB Caleb Hanie has been forced in and threw for just 115 yards in Sunday’s stunning 13-10 OT loss at Denver, blowing a 10-0 lead. More bad news: RB Joe Forte suffered a Grade 2 sprain of the medial collateral ligament in his right knee. It's typically a four-week injury and he is out 4-5 weeks. Bears have a talented defense led by linebackers Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher. The defense is stout against the run (12th). Two subpar QB's, good defense and the windy city. The Bears and Seahawks will struggle to put up points.
King Creole
Washington +7.5
Most PROFITABLE situation over the last two seasons for playing on division underdogs? It applies in this game.
27-7 ATS last 4 years: All division road underdogs (WASH) versus any > .500 opponent playing off a SU win... and 2 or more ATS wins (NY Giants).
In the last TWO years, these dogs have gone 15-2 ATS.... and a PERFECT 9-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss (WASH lost to New Eng last week).
Sharp players already know that Washington UPSET the New York Giants back in Week One of this season. So the G-Men are playing with revenge. But Revenge does NOT work in this division...
DID YOU KNOW?
NFC EAST division home favorites of > 3 points playing with REVENGE (NY Giants) have gone a PERFECT 0-5 ATS in the last 4 seasons.
New York is favored by anywhere from -6.5 to -7.5 points in this one. Let's run a query in that line range.
0-5 ATS since 2005: All division home favorites of -6 to -8 points .... playing off a SU division underdog win (NY Giants beat Dallas last week).
Final score of that CLOSE win last week for the G-Men was 37 to 34.
0-4 ATS last 4 years: All favorites of -8 < points (Giants) playing off a SU road win of 3 points.
Washington was a home dog of +7.5 last week vs the Patriots. They lost 34-27... but DID cover the spread.
14-3-1 ATS last 4 years: All teams playing off a SU home loss BUT an ATS win as underdog of +7 . points (WASH). These teams have gone a PERFECT 8-0 ATS as road underdogs of 6 points (WASH) after allowing 34 > points in EACH of their last two games, with the last vs a non-div opponent.
So the Redskins take to the road off back-to-back home LOSSES and BB 'Overs'....
4-0 ATS since 2005: All underdogs of 3 > points playing off BB home losses... and BB 'Overs' (WASH) versus any opponent off a SUATS win (NY Giants).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Kansas City Chiefs +14
The Packers have won their six home games by an average of 22.0 points but have won their seven road games by just 8.0 points on average. None of their seven road wins have come by more than 12 points, and I expect this trend to continue Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs are 2-3 in their last five home games, but two of those losses came by just 7 and 4 points to the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers, who are playing about as well as anyone right now. Kansas City’s success as an underdog can’t be ignored. It is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a home underdog. In addition, it is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. The Packers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. Veteran QB Kyle Orton is expected to start for the Chiefs. He gives them a good chance to move the football against Green Bay’s poor pass defense, which ranks 31st in the NFL with 288.7 yards allowed per game. The Packers would like to run the table, and in all likelihood will finish the regular season undefeated, but last week’s injury to star wideout Greg Jennings will cause them to proceed with caution. Health is the most important thing at this point, so don’t be surprised if coach McCarthy elects to rest some players in the second half of games down the stretch. This opens up the possibility of a backdoor cover (if it is needed), especially when Green Bay is laying the most points it’s laid on the road all season. Rodgers has other weapons, but Jennings will be missed. He has a team-best 67 receptions for 949 yards and nine touchdowns. It’s hard to believe the offense will be the same well-oiled machine in the first week without him, especially against a Kansas City defense that’s a respectable 10th against the pass with 209.3 yards allowed per game. We’ll take the Chiefs.
David Chan
Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks
The 14-14-4 Calgary Flames explode into Chicago to take on the 20-8-4 Blackhawks.
Calgary is coming off a 3-2 OT loss at Florida on Friday; the Flames managed just 24-shots in the setback; they gave up 39 shots.
The Flames had a 5-on-3 power play in the closing moments of the second frame, but failed to take advantage:
“In the last eight minutes in the game, I thought we looked a little tired,” Flames coach Brent Sutter admitted.
The Flames are 6-9-2 on the road.
The Hawks are 10-2-3 at home.
Chicago is coming off a relatively easy 4-1 win over Anaheim on Friday; goaltender Ray Emery stopped 24-shots; Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp each contributed a goal and an assist:
“I don’t take anything for granted,” Emery said. “You never know how things are going to go. If you expect something and you’re not willing to work for it, you usually don’t get it.
“So it’s one game at a time. Every time I go in there, I try to do my best.”
These two teams are moving in opposite directions; I'm going to lay the price on the hot goaltender; all signs point to a comfortable home victory!
Teddy Covers
Saints @ Vikings
PICK: Over 52
My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting the Vikings Over the total last week; a wild 34-28 affair. Expect more of the same -- points in bunches from the Vikings and their opponent – as they return home to the Metrodome to face New Orleans.
The Vikings have lost their last two games despite scoring 60 points and gaining more than 900 total yards of offense. With Adrian Peterson expected to return to the lineup this week, and QB Christian Ponder likely to start, the Vikings attack is only going to improve here But Minnesota’s defense remains a disaster area. Leslie Frazier has seen his secondary get absolutely decimated with injuries, losing four cornerbacks and three safeties. No surprise, then, that the Vikings have been torched repeatedly in recent weeks, allowing more than 32 points per game over their last eight contests.
That’s very bad news against a QB like Drew Brees and the Saints potent offense, especially indoors, on turf – New Orleans’ preferred type of venue. The Saints rank #2 in the NFL in points scored, #1 in yards per game, #1 in passing yards per game, #1 in first downs and #1third down conversion rate. But New Orleans does not have a shut-down defense; particularly on the highway – heck, the sorry Rams scored a season high 31 on this defense the last time they played in a dome away from home. Expect fireworks! Take the Over.
Steve Janus
Carolina Panthers +6
The Panthers are one of the more underrated teams in the NFL right now, and I not only think they will cover the 6-point spread but possibly win this game outright.
The Texans come into this game off an improbable win at Cincinnati, where they scored a game winning touchdown in the final seconds. That win coupled with a Tennessee loss, secured the Texans the AFC South Division title and the franchises first playoff appearance. While they would like to get a first round bye, the most important thing for this team is not lose any more key players to injury. I expect them to play very conservative on both sides of the ball, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they limited Foster's carries.
The Panthers lost 23-31 at home to a very motivated Atlanta Falcons team, ruining their chances at a three-game winning streak. They blew a 23-7 halftime lead. They let a 24-7 lead get away against the Lions back in week 11, but followed that up with a strong win at Indianapolis. This team knows they are headed in the right direction, and I expect them to be extremely motivated against the current No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Panthers are a difficult team to prepare for because of the versatility of quarterback Cam Newton. They come into the game 8th in the NFL in passing (259.9 ypg) and 5th in rushing (139.1 ypg). Houston was very fortunate to only give up 19 points last week. Cincinnati had to settle for four field goals in that game.
The Panthers also benefits from the fact that Houston will be without defensive coordinator Wade Philips, who is the reason why they have made such remarkable improvements on that side of the ball. Few understand how important his job really is.
Carolina is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games in December, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game over the last 3 seasons, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
EZWINNERS
Arizona Cardinals -7
The Cardinals are playing some very good football right now. Arizona has won five out of their last six game and have covered the spread in six out of their last seven. The Cardinals should be able to extend those streaks against a reeling Cleveland team. The Cleveland offense has struggled to produce points and the Browns will be without starting quarterback Colt McCoy who suffered a concussion against the Steelers last week. On defense the Browns have struggled to stop the run which has resulted in their opponents completing some big pass plays when Cleveland has to commit extra defenders in the box. Larry Fitzgerald continues to produce whether its Kevin Kolb or John Skelton at quarterback and I expect him to have a big impact in this game once again. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* Denver Broncos +8.5
I've been riding the Denver Broncos with tremendous success ever since Tim Tebow took over as starting quarterback. Denver just barely missed my premium card this week, but I still feel strongly enough about them to release a free pick on the Broncos Sunday. Tebow, who is 7-1 as the starter this season, often has been ineffective for much of the game, only to engineer tying or winning drives with the pressure on. While Tebow continues to get the bulk of the attention, the Broncos' defense - sparked by star rookie Von Miller's 11 1/2 sacks - also has been hugely responsible for the turnaround from a 1-4 start. New England is 2-15 at Denver since 1969, and Tom Brady is 1-6 lifetime versus the Broncos. This is a very tough place to play, and I expect Denver to come out and prove once again that they are the real deal. The Patriots have the worst defense in the NFL, giving up a league-high 416.0 yards/game. The Broncos play the style of football that can beat New England. They run the football to control the clock, they don't turn the ball over, and their defense plays energized since they spend most of their time watching Tebow and the Denver offense from the sidelines. One of Tebow's best qualities this year has been his ability to avoid turnovers. He's thrown two interceptions in 198 pass attempts, compared to 11 TD passes. The Broncos rely more heavily on the NFL's most productive rushing offense, averaging 156.2 yards - many on Tebow's 94 carries. Willis McGahee is 80 shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing season since 2007. New England gave up a season-high 170 yards on the ground to the Redskins last week. Denver should stay within a touchdown Sunday, possibly pulling off the upset as this one goes right down to the wire again. Take the Broncos and the points.
Jack Jones
Packers/Chiefs Over 45½
The Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs should easily combine to score 46 or more points Sunday. Weather conditions are incredible for Kansas City at this time of the year. Forecasts are calling for a high in the mid 50s with southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Green Bay ranks 1st in the league in scoring offense (35.8 points/game) and I fully expect them to cover most of this total on their own. The Packers rank just 31st in total defense (394.5 yards/game) as they give up the second-most yards in the NFL. Green Bay allows 24.1 points/game on the road this year.
Kansas City is no offensive juggernaut by any means, but they are expected to have a healthy Kyle Orton under center Sunday. Orton still hasn't been given a chance to lead this team after getting injured on a fluke flea flicker on the team's first play from scrimmage against the Chicago Bears a few weeks back. Orton gives the Chiefs a much better chance of moving the football Sunday against a Packers defense that ranks 30th against the pass (288.7 yards/game).
I expect Green Bay to get to their season average of roughly 36 points, and with a 14-point spread, that means the Chiefs should be able to score roughly 22. I'm expecting a total of roughly 58 combined points by game's end, which is well OVER the posted total for Sunday's contest.
Oddsmakers haven't been able to set the total in Packer games high enough considering the OVER is 6-1 in the Green Bay's last 7 games overall. The OVER is 57-27-2 in Packers last 86 vs. a team with a losing record. Green Bay is 16-4 t the OVER in their last 20 versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
Patrick Webb
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills -1
I like Buffalo at home versus the Dolphins. Miami is a coaching staff under turmoil, and after a hot November they are fighting injuries on the offensive side of the ball- Long, Carey and Moore are all questionable. Miami has been solid versus the rush this season, and dominated Buffalo at home just four weeks ago. The Bills have really struggled to generate rushing yardage after Fred Jackson was lost for the season, but Miami scored 35 points despite gaining only 242 yards and less than 100 yards on the ground.
Buffalo's QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been borderline dismal over the 6 game losing streak, but I look for a big game out of him here as he was sacked only twice in the first meeting and Miami's linebackers will struggle to match up with TB CJ Spiller out of the backfield.
Buffalo is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite from .5-3 points and 7-3 ATS after allowing 30 or more points in the previous game. Miami is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Buffalo and 1-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss.
Jim Feist
Carolina Hurricanes vs Florida Panthers
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes
The Florida Panthers are a big home favorite here on Sunday. I'm going to play the dog here, the Caroline Hurricanes. Florida has played 14 home games and they are just 7-7 on the season. Moreover, in the role of a favorite they are losing money at home, going 5-4 this season. The Panthers have lost two of their last four home games, 3-2 to the Devils and 2-1 to the Lightning. Carolina doesn't win much on the road, going just 4-12 away from home. However, you have to like how competitive they have been, losing 2-1 at Toronto, losing by one goal at Calgary, beating Edmonton 5-3 and dropping 4-2 at Winnipeg in their last four away games. The Hurricanes even shocked the Flyers back on Nov 21st, 4-2. There is some value here with a big dog in the Hurricanes and I will take a chance and see if they can stay competitive.
James Patrick Sports
Ravens vs. Chargers
The Ravens have ripped off four consecutive victories, but will face a stern test against San Diego, which has posted back-to-back lopsided wins. This is a tricky game as the Chargers have won back-to-back games and are fighting to stay alive in the AFC West picture. San Diego has rebounded from a seven-game losing streak by outscoring its last two opponents (75-24). QB Philip Rivers entered December leading the league in interceptions (17), but he has thrown three TD passes in the routs of Jacksonville and Buffalo and hasnt been picked off. Second-year RB Ryan Mathews has three consecutive (100) yard games and needs (57) to reach (1,000) for the season. Since 2006, San Diego has posted an NFL best (20-1) record over the final four weeks of the season. Baltimore is just 3-3 on the road this season and the San Diego Chargers may be tempting underdogs with ATS runs of (22-9-3) when getting points and (5-1) as a home pup. Look for the Bolts to cause a Big Mess in the AFC Playoff picture as the Home team is (6-2) ATS in their last (8) meetings. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is San Diego Chargers.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington Redskins vs. NY Giants
Play: Washington Redskins +7
Washington fits a couple of nice systems here today as road dogs off back to back home dog losses are solid investments vs an opponent off a road win. These teams have covered 12 of the last 16 in Division play. Another system that plays against the Giants goes like this. Play against home favorites of 3 or more off a division road dog win if .550 or less and the opponent is off a loss. The Giant have not covered here since Early in the season vs the Rams on Monday night football and could be flat off the huge comeback win vs Dallas last week. Teams that beat Dallas are 2-8 ats in division play vs a team off a loss. Washington is 12-1 ats as a dog off a loss vs an opponent that was a dog last out. Look for Washington to cover the number here.