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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 19,2010

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DUNKEL INDEX

New Orleans at Baltimore
The Saints look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is coming off a 34-28 win over Houston on Monday and is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Sunday games following a Monday night contest. New Orleans is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2)

Game 303-304: Kansas City at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 131.048; St. Louis 129.490
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 305-306: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.964; Tennessee 127.951
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Under

Game 307-308: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.524; Indianapolis 136.279
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Over

Game 309-310: Arizona at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 114.426; Carolina 120.789
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-2 1/2); Over

Game 311-312: Cleveland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.569; Cincinnati 126.550
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2); Under

Game 313-314: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.337; Miami 136.973
Dunkel Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Miami by 5 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5 1/2); Under

Game 315-316: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.006; NY Giants 139.256
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 50
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

Game 317-318: Washington at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.803; Dallas 131.135
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6); Under

Game 319-320: Detroit at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 125.814; Tampa Bay 135.634
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 9 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-6); Over

Game 321-322: New Orleans at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.157; Baltimore 136.666
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2); Over

Game 323-324: Atlanta at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.493; Seattle 126.776
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Under

Game 325-326: NY Jets at Pittsburgh (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.624; Pittsburgh 138.638
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6 1/2); Over

Game 327-328: Denver at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 125.066; Oakland 132.810
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Oakland by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-6 1/2); Under

Game 329-330: Green Bay at New England (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 138.255; New England 146.727
Dunkel Line: New England by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

MONDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 331-332: Chicago at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 137.110; Minnesota 132.009
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NCAAB

Florida Atlantic at UL-Monroe
The Owls look to take advantage of a UL-Monroe team that is coming off a 79-49 loss at UTEP and is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Florida Atlantic is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Owls favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-6 1/2)

Game 813-814: Dartmouth at Iowa State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 42.400; Iowa State 70.049
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 25
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-25)

Game 815-816: Arizona at NC State (4:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 68.766; NC State 67.238
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+3)

Game 817-818: Florida Atlantic at UL-Monroe (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 54.633; UL-Monroe 45.511
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 9
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-6 1/2)

Game 819-820: Washington State at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 65.778; Santa Clara 57.804
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 8
Vegas Line: Washington State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+10)

Game 821-822: NC Greensboro at Clemson (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC Greensboro 39.013; Clemson 64.063
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 25
Vegas Line: Clemson by 27
Dunkel Pick: NC Greensboro (+27)

Game 823-824: The Citadel at New Mexico (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 46.056; New Mexico 70.009
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 24
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 22
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-22)

Game 825-826: Montana State at UC-Riverside (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 52.798; UC-Riverside 52.485
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Montana State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (+2 1/2)

Game 827-828: SE Missouri State at Jacksonville State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 38.192; Jacksonville State 47.215
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 9
Vegas Line: Jacksonville State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (-8)

Game 829-830: Morehead State at Tennessee State (6:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 53.961; Tennessee State 50.590
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+6 1/2)

Game 831-832: Eastern Illinois at Tennessee Tech (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.056; Tennessee Tech 54.263
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 7
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 5
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (-5)

Game 841-842: Stony Brook at Notre Dame (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 46.478; Notre Dame 74.384
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 28
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:38 pm
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WunderdogFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Denver Broncos +6.5
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It has been a long time since the Raiders have had to tackle a sizeable number like this. Most look back at last week and see Denver failing miserably against a weak Arizona team and will turn to Oakland here. Last week's poor performance is always good for some line value the following week and we get it here with Denver. What gets easily forgotten is Denver's 4-point loss at Kansas City two weeks ago, their 3-point loss to St. Louis three weeks ago and their 20-point win vs. what was then a hot Chiefs team. I think Denver comes into this one with a lot of fire as Oakland beat them 59-14 earlier in the season. They are going to be busting their butts to avenge that game. There is no doubt you will see a different Denver team on the field for this one. The Raiders aren't exactly playing great football and last week Jacksonville racked up over 200 yards rushing against them. The Raiders are bound to be a bit over-confident after destroying the Broncos early in the season. And, they have Kansas City and Indianapolis on deck, games that will get more of their attention than this one. Oakland is killing backers as a favorite at just 6-21 ATS in their last 27. Road teams have gotten the money in the last five in this series, with the Broncos 5-2 ATS in their last seven here. This is just too many points. Take Denver plus the points.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:42 pm
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SEAN MURPHYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Buffalo Bills +5
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We cashed a 10* ticket with the Dolphins in their upset win over the Jets last Sunday, but it's time to switch gears this week, and fade them as they return home to host the Buffalo Bills.
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Miami's struggles at home have been well-documented. The Dolphins have won just once in six tries here this season, going 2-4 ATS. They've already lost outright as a home favorite on four different occasions.
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The Bills may be 3-10, but they continue to play hard. They're just 1-5 SU on the road, but 4-2 ATS. This game will make the start of a three game stretch against divisional opponents to finish the season.
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It's tough enough for the Dolphins to scratch out a win these days, let alone cover a pointspread as a favorite. Chad Henne has regressed considerably, throwing 15 interceptions compared to just 13 touchdowns this season. Without a quality quarterback, you're not going to win many games in this league.
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Of course, Miami has been able to lean heavily on its ground game in recent years - but not this season. The Dolphins are averaging just 106 rush yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush. Sure, they'll be facing the league's worst run defense on Sunday, but can they take advantage? It's not easy to just flip the switch and start running the ball effectively. Injuries on the offensive line have certainly hurt Miami's cause.
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The Bills have been held to 16 points or less in three consecutive games, but they have proven to be capable of big offensive showings on the road this season - having scored 30 points in New England, 34 in Baltimore, and 49 in Cincinnati.
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The Dolphins may have more to play for, but I'll take the better quarterback and yes, even the better running game at an underdog price on Sunday afternoon. The Bills stay in this one for four quarters. Take Buffalo.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:44 pm
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Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Jaguars @ Colts
PICK: Under48.5
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
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Jacksonville has seen the total go "under" the number in just 3 of 13 this year, including in just 1 of 6 on the road; last week it held on for a 38-31 victory at home over the Raiders.
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This is a high-scoring team with a suspect defense, so it's significant to point out that the Jaguars have seen the total go "under" the number in 3 of 6 this year vs. division opponents, and in 8 of 16 over the last two-seasons in the same position.
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On the other side of the field: The Colts have seen the total go "under" the number in just 4 of 12 (with one "push") to start the year (in 3 of 5 in front of the home town crowd); last week they held on for a 30-28 victory over the Titans in Tennessee, the total sailing well above the posted number of 44 in that one.
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Indianapolis' injury issues this year are well documented, but even Jim Caldwell recognizes his team has struggled with the basics; "Anytime that you don't turn the ball over it gives you an opportunity to be consistent and keep drives going. We have to tackle better from a defensive standpoint. There are a lot of little things. There is a sign that hangs in our locker room that says, 'Take care of the little things, and the big things will take care of themselves.' I think consistency is one of those bigger things. What we have to do is make certain we focus in on the little things; the basic fundamentals, catching the ball, throwing the ball, blocking, tackling, just the basic fundamentals. That will get us to the point where we are doing everything consistent."
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Obviously without Peyton Manning under center, the Colts would be considered an average team at best.
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But Manning has contributed as much to the Colts inconsistency of late, as any other player or factor that Indianapolis is dealing with right now.
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Important to note that Indianapolis has seen the total go "under" the number in 3 of 5 at Lucas Oil this year and in 13 of 23 over the last two-seasons in the same position.
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Bottom line: No question the stakes are high for each side.
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Without getting into every single scenario of what could/will happen for each team whether it wins or loses, suffice to say, this is a pivotal divisional matchup.
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Jacksonville will have to stick to its strength to win this contest; a steady dose of the run game as it looks to keep its offense on the field as long as possible in an attempt to keep Manning out of the game as much as possible.
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The Colts will have to limit their mistakes and turnovers and will ultimately have to step up on the defensive side of the ball at some point if they have any shot at a post-season run.
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I think there is good "value" on the "under" in this one.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:45 pm
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TEDDY COVERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Eagles @ GiantsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Over 46FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The betting markets seem rather concerned about a light dusting of snow expected for the Meadowlands on Sunday. The weather forecast is the only thing that has kept this total in a very reasonable range, and frankly, that forecast without high winds or truly frigid conditions doesn’t worry me in a matchup of two cold weather teams with potent offenses and defensive weaknesses.
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The Eagles continue to suffer through a myriad of defensive injuries. Philly will be playing without starting cornerback Ellis Hobbs, and the CB on the other side, Asante Samuel, will be at less than 100% if he plays at all. Pass rushing defensive end Brandon Graham just went on IR this week, and middle linebacker Stewart Bradley is out with an elbow injury.
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The Eagles have had more than their fair share of shoddy defensive showings this year, starting in Week 1 against Green Bay. We saw the Lions torch this defense for 32 points. The Titans last win came when they hung 37 on the Eagles. Three weeks ago, the Bears enjoyed their single highest scoring output for the season against Philly, and last week, the Eagles defense couldn’t get a stop with the pointspread cover on the line, allowing 27 at Dallas. In fact, only one of the Eagles last seven opponents has scored less than 24 against them – the Giants in their turnover plagued first meeting with Philly.
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We can’t count on Philly to get stops, but we certainly can count on the Eagles offense to score points in bunches. Philly has scored 26+ in six straight games and eight of their last nine. No defense in the league has figured out how to contain the Michael Vick/DeSean Jackson/LeSean McCoy triumvirate. Both meetings last year flew over the total, producing 57 and 83 points in the two games. Expect more fireworks here. 2* Take the Over.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:46 pm
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MARC LAWRENCEFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PICK: Detroit Lions +6
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It’s been 14 years since the Lions garnered a Game Fourteen SU win and our database also points out Detroit is 1-10-1 ATS off a SU dog win versus NFC opposition. And to make matters worse, this roadie off a three-game homestand finds the Lions 1-19 SU and 5-15 ATS away off a win since 2000. Despite the ton of bad numbers calling for a Detroit fade. we see but the Bucs battling for a playoff berth and the pressure is squarely on their young shoulders. Tampa also hasn’t fared well in this series (1-7 ATS last eight, 2-7 ATS last nine at home) and they carry a putrid 1-15 SU and 2-14 ATS log in games against non-division foes off a double-digit ATS win. Grab the points against Tampa in this big apple contest. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:47 pm
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Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. St Louis Rams
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +3
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I really think Matt Cassel is going to play this weekend for the Chiefs, and with him in the lineup the Chiefs are an absolute steal at +3. I actually even like Kansas City if Cassel can't play, as I think the Rams are going to have a very tough time stopping the ground game of the Chiefs, as they don't have near the talent on the defensive side that the Chargers do. Kansas City has absolutely dominated the NFC West this season, going a perfect 3-0, and are 17-6 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992, and are 32-17 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The Rams are just 28-47 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992, and only 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:48 pm
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Info PlaysFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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3* Panthers -2.5
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Reason why the Panthers will Cover:
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1) The Panthers have really ran the ball well lately, and I don't think there will be much the Cardinals can do to stop it. Arizona has allowed at least a 100 yards in each of their last five game. This will allow Jimmy Clausen to avoid making mistakes, because he wont have to throw the ball.
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2) Really like Carolina's defense against the Cardinals offense in this one. The Cardinals are averaging just 13.5 points a game on the road this season, and have lost five straight away from home. The Cardinals rookie quarterback was carried by their running game last week, as he was just 15 of 37 for 146 yards!
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3) Carolina is 34-16 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992, and are 35-17 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season since 1992.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:48 pm
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Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals vs. Panthers
Play: Over37½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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As we pointed out last week in our analysis of the Cardinals game, the line is made just as much with defense as it is with offense. Just because neither of these teams have very good offenses does not mean the game cannot go over. Arizona has permitted 19 points or more to all but two teams all season, including last week against Denver. They are allowing over 190 yards in just in the first half. Those numbers are even worse when you consider the teams they have faced with major offensive problems.
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Despite having the least talented team in the league the Panthers continue to play hard each week. But as the season has gone on this offense is continually in catch-up mode. The Panthers are being outscored 13.9-6.8 in the first half this season. Defensively Carolina las allowed 31 points or more in 5 of the last 6 games. They have only permitted less than 20 points once all season. If offensive questionable teams like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Chicago, San Francisco and Seattle can all reach 20 points against this defense, the Cardinals with good skill players at running back and receiver surely can.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:49 pm
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Chip ChirimbesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -1
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Last season Tennessee started 1-7 and closed like gangbusters and this season they opened 5-2, but have now lost six straight and didn't get a 'cover' until they scored on the final play against Indianapolis on the final play of the game after trailing by 21 points. The Houston Texans like the Titans staged a huge comeback on Monday against the Ravens also trailing by 21-0 before also tying the game with a two-point conversion to send the game into overtime. We all know what happened next and Houston had their hearts ripped-out. Titans rebound more likely.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:50 pm
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Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY Giants
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +3
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Both teams are 9-4 and first place in the NFC East will be the reward to the winner of this division battle. The Eagles have won 6 of their last 7 games behind solid play from QB Vick, while scoring 26 points or more in all 7 of those contests! Philadelphia's offensive output is usually too much for the Giants to handle, as these Eagles improved to 5-1 SU & ATS during the last six games in this series after winning the first meeting 27-17 on November 21. With the Division race and Playoffs on the line, taking the points with an Eagles that will sweep this season's series with another victory over the G-Men on Sunday

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:51 pm
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SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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ST. LOUIS +1.02 over Kansas City
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The Chiefs get Matt Cassels back and that certainly helps their situation but Kansas City is still the inferior squad here. They’re favored because of an 8-5 record but that mark is not to be believed. The Chiefs last three wins have come against Denver, Seattle and Arizona, arguably three of the worst four teams in the NFL. The only team missing in that group is the Pink Panthers. They also have a win over Buffalo and San Fran and in at least two of their other wins, against San Diego in Week 1 and against Cleveland in Week 2, the Chiefs had no business winning. K.C. were dregs last season and as a result drew one of the easiest schedules in the league. Truth be told, they’re not a whole lot better than the team that went 4-12 a year ago. The Rams are a whole lot better. They’ve had an easy schedule too, however, they also have a franchise QB in Sam Bradford. Its defense is very underrated and it’s also worth noting that the Rams will play their first home game in almost a month after playing their last three on the road. St. Louis hosted the Falcons in its last home game back on Nov 21 and while the final score read 34-17 Falcons, that game was a lot closer than the score indicates. Playing their third road game in a row last weekend, the Rams went into New Orleans and had it not been for some costly turnovers, that score would have been a whole lot different. This is a young Rams squad that is going to be extremely jacked up here after San Fran lost to San Diego. They can get a stranglehold on the division with a win and they’re the far more skilled team at the key positions. K.C. favored on the road here is ludicrous. Play: St. Louis +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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DALLAS –7 +1.01 over Washington
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They dominated the first half last week and instead of being up 10-3, the Skins should’ve been up about 24-3. They missed a 26-yard FG, a 22-yard FG and they missed a PAT on the final play of the game that would’ve sent the game into OT. Mike Shanahan and his cracked staff managed the game clock like it was the first time they’ve ever been in a football game. These players are on the verge of quitting on Shanahan if they haven’t already. He’s a complete control freak and nut case. He does not let his players on the field call timeouts. Instead, he runs up and down the sidelines trying to control everything. He threw McNab under the bus a few weeks ago and he was the instigator in the whole Albert Haynesworth fiasco. Shanahan cut placeholder Hunter Smith for botching the snap on that missed convert. After all, you don’t make Shanahan look bad and get away with it. The Skins lost 17-16 and if that game didn’t take the wind completely out of their sail, nothing will. Now the Skins are going to travel to Dallas to play the focused Cowboys, a team they beat to open the season that set a negative tone for Dallas’ season. The Boys have faced Green Bay, the Giants, New Orleans, Indy and Philly in five of the past six weeks and they’ve looked real sharp for the past five games. The Cowboys thump this demoralized rival here.
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NOTE: An update to this game is that Donovan McNab was told he's not starting on Friday. Ben Groosman will go in his place. Once again Shanahan has flexed his muscles and now you're really going to see the rest of the team quit on him. Do not miss this wager. Play: Dallas –7 +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
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Detroit +6 over TAMPA BAY
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Give the Buccaneers all the credit in the world for playing its hearts out all season long. Josh Freeman has as much fire in his belly as any QB in the game and it’s rubbed off on the whole team. However, Tampa has really been hit hard by the injury bug and has now placed seven starters on IR. We saw signs of its vulnerability last week against Washington and it’s likely to be even more prevalent this week against a Lions club that is extremely determined to snap an incredible 26-game road losing streak. Last week, Detroit snapped a 14-game losing streak to division rivals when they beat the Pack 7-3. The Bucs are overpriced here due to the records of both these teams but a close look reveals that the Lions have really stepped up its game this year. Detroit has lost close one’s to Philly (35-32), two to Chicago (19-14) and (24-20), Green Bay (28-26), the Giants (28-20) and the Jets (23-20) to name a few. They’ve also covered in seven of its last eight tries against winning teams and they have to be feeling good about their chances here. The Lions get Shaun Hill back and they’re a lot more dangerous with him going as oppose to Drew Stanton. Play: Detroit +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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N.Y. Jets +6 over PITTSBURGH SportsInteraction
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The Jets stock is lower than it’s been in two years after unwatchable losses to Miami last week and to the Patriots the week before. Has that much changed for the Jets? Remember, they were just a 3½-point pooch in New England two weeks ago and now they’re a six-point dog in Pittsburgh. Five weeks ago, they were being billed as the Super Bowl favorite. Now it’s time for the Jets to get back to playing football like they’re capable of instead of talking. They’ve been greatly humbled and they’ve finally shut-up. You can expect an extremely focused Jets group here, especially after the embarrassment of having one of its coaches suspended after that premeditated attack on a Dolphins punt returner. This is the same Jets team that was 9-2 and looking very good heading into December. The Steelers beat the Bengals last week 23-7. However, they failed to score an offensive TD and in true Steeler style, every bounce went its way. The Steelers are rarely up or down by more than four points and they usually need one of those miracle bounces to pull out a late win. The Steelers will face the toughest defense they’ve seen all season and it’s not like they’re in top form. They pulled out miracle wins over Buffalo and Baltimore in two of the past three weeks and again, its win over the 2-11 Bengals last week was anything but impressive. This is truly a case of “buying low” on the Jets and it says here the Jets pull the upset and at the very worse, stay well within this range. Play: N.Y. Jets +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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Buffalo +5½ over MIAMI
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We’re not even sure the Fish can score 5½-points, let alone cover 5½. Here’s a Miami team that has scored 10 points or less in four of its past six games. They’ve been regressing for weeks and even in its win last week over the Jets, Miami threw for a total of 30 yards. What we all know is that the Bills will have the best QB on the field for this one and that they’ve been playing hard for all season. The Bills have won three of their past five games and it should have been four of five after that bizarre loss to the Steelers. Mathematically, the Dolphins are still alive but its chance of making the playoffs are slim and none and slim just left town. These two know each other very well and you’d be hard pressed to make a case that the Dolphins are the superior team. What we have here is a team regressing, the Fish, that cannot move five yards, laying significant points against a team that is strongly progressing and that’s playing with a ton of determination week in and week out. Play: Buffalo +5½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:52 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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RANDALL THE HANDLE
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BEST BETS (22-18-2)
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Redskins (5-8) at Cowboys (4-9)
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The Redskins cut placeholder Hunter Smith for botching the snap on a convert that would have tied the game with Bucs last week. That pretty much tells you how dysfunctional Washington is at the moment. It is clear that from the time Mike Shanahan attempted to throw QB Donovan McNabb under the bus, the team basically quit on him. This is a lethargic bunch that is going nowhere quickly. Actually, they are going to Dallas and don’t be surprised for it to be a miserable excursion. The Cowboys are diametric opposites as they have been playing hard since switching coaches and they owe the Redskins for setting the tone for their awful start with a 13-7 setback in opening week. Dallas thumps this demoralized rival here. TAKING: COWBOYS –6
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Lions (3-10) at Buccaneers (8-5)
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After losing DT Gerald McCoy and LB Quincy Black last week, the Buccaneers have now placed seven starters on the injured reserve list over the past few weeks. This was an overachieving club to begin with. Replacing mediocre guys with subpar guys can’t produce positive results. Tampa is slated in this price range based mainly on current records of both and public misconception. Detroit thrives against winning teams with seven covers in past eight tries and this opponent ranks below most of those prior challengers. Detroit defensive line playing with confidence after stymieing Packers and this unit should be a lesser test. TAKING: LIONS +6
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Jets (9-4) at Steelers (10-3)
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While many are focused on New York ’s inability to find the end zone, the Steelers haven’t exactly been camping out there. The difference is that Pittsburgh ’s defence has converted turnovers into points, allowing Steelers to win consecutive games without navigating an offensive touchdown. Pittsburgh ’s offensive line remains a mess and it is more than coincidence that Ben Roethlisberger has been batted around like a cat toy while Steelers quarterbacks have suffered an alarming 35 sacks. The Jets need to shut up and put up. This opponent allows them to do so. TAKING: JETS +6
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THE REST:
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Texans (5-8) at Titans (5-8)
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Tough call in this battle of ineptitude as this pair have dropped 12 of past 13 games combined. Titans will have had 10 days rest before this one while the Texans are playing on a short week after exerting themselves in OT loss on Monday night. That’s enough to tip the scale to home side. TAKING: TITANS –1
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Jaguars (8-5) at Colts (7-6)
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A year after sacrificing an undefeated season by resting players down the stretch, the Colts find themselves in an unfamiliar spot as they must win this one to have any chance at post-season play. With Indianapolis ’ myriad of injuries, it will be difficult enough to win, let alone by a margin. TAKING: JAGUARS +5
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Cardinals (4-9) at Panthers (1-12)
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Must we? Just the fact that Carolina can be favoured here is a testament to how poor the Cardinals really are. Carolina finishes at Pittsburgh next Thursday night before visiting Atlanta to complete this miserable season. With the Panthers currently owning the top draft spot, what would you do? TAKING: CARDINALS +2½
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Browns (5-8) at Bengals (2-11)
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Colt McCoy has been named the starter for this one and while nearly anyone is a better option than Jake Delhomme, McCoy will get just his sixth start, on the road, with a tentative ankle and at the tail end of his team's three-game road trip. If nothing else, the Bengals can pass the ball and that's more than we can currently say for their in-state rival. TAKING: Bengals -2
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Bills (3-10) at Dolphins (7-6)
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It’s one thing to be taking points with these Dolphins. It’s a whole other matter to be giving away any. Miami has scored just 20 points over its past two games and despite defeating the struggling Jets last week, the Fish passed for a mere 30 yards. TAKING: BILLS +5½
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Eagles (9-4) at Giants (9-4)
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Eagles won the first meeting between these two, largely aided by five New York turnovers. Despite the gaffs, the Giants still had a chance to win that one. Returning to this field and facing an Eagles pass defence that leaves much to be desired, has us eagerly endorsing this host. TAKING: GIANTS –2½
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Saints (10-3) at Ravens (9-4)
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Saints have won six straight but five of those six wins have come against sub .500 squads that include the Panthers, Seahawks, Bengals, Cowboys and Rams. This will be a tougher assignment as the Ravens are a tough out at home, having won eight straight before coughing up last one here to Pittsburgh. TAKING: RAVENS –1½
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Falcons (11-2) at Seahawks (6-7)
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It’s just as easy to like the Falcons here as it is to fade the struggling Seahawks. Be careful. This is Atlanta ’s third stop on a three-game road swing and it is preceded by a monster game with Saints next week at the Georgia Dome. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +6
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Broncos (3-10) at Raiders (6-7)
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We’re not sure if the Broncos can fall any further but prefer them to a Raiders team that simply cannot be favoured in this price range, no matter who the opposition might be. Denver was humiliated by a 59-14 at home to Oakland and redemption would not surprise. TAKING: BRONCOS +6½

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:56 pm
(@blade)
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NellyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland + over Cincinnati
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The Bengals have now lost ten straight games and while many efforts have been competitive it will be hard to keep this team together. QB Carson Palmer continues to struggle and more amazingly is that Cincinnati has averaged just 87 rushing yards per game after a great rushing attack last year. Cleveland is good rushing team and a much better rush defense. The Browns are generating 111 rushing yards per game on four yards per carry and holding foes to 4.1 yards per carry compared with 4.6 yards per carry allowed by Cincinnati. The Browns have struggled to score points with just 19 points the last two weeks but Colt McCoy can provide a boost to the offense. Cincinnati has also been atrocious at home going 2-8 ATS in the past ten home games. Cleveland won the first meeting between these teams this season and the Browns have covered in four of the last five meetings.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:56 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Ray MonohanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Buffalo Bills +5½
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The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most consistent teams against the spread in the last month and we'll bank on that to continue. Really, in this AFC East rivalry, we are banking on two trends: the Bills to keep up their torrid pace ATS since their bye week and the Miami Dolphins to continue their home-away trends. The Bills have covered against the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, while pushing against the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions in their last eight games. Aside from their blowout loss in Minnesota, their margin of defeat is three points per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 7-6 overall but are just 1-5 in home games. They have played significantly better away from home (6-1) than in their own backyard. Throw in the fact that the Dolphins are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and you have a good value play with the Bills.

 
Posted : December 18, 2010 11:58 pm
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