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New Orleans Saints +1.5
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For some reason this game seems to be flying somewhat under the radar and it shapes up as one helluva match up pitting the defending super bowl champs venturing into Baltimore to battle the Ravens. Here's the deal, while I still have much respect for that much heralded Baltimore defense what I am seeing now does not quite compare with past history with that unit. At times they show flashes of that brilliance we all came to know but all too often this unit gives up lot's of yardage and points. The last game in Houston is a prime example when they just about blew a 21 point lead before pulling it out in overtime. It's no national secret that their biggest liability has been in the secondary and now they have Drew Brees bringing his act into town, that does not bode well for Ravens supporters guys. Now I realize their will be some who will be crowing about Brees having to do it outside in the elements, to that I simply reply with a huge, whatever!! The Champion Saints have been rolling along prevailing in their last six games and they will not flinch here at the prospect of meeting the Ravens. Bottom line is I very much like our chances here with the defending champs here in the slight dog role. Well worth of shot here guys, let's play Sean Payton and his New Orleans Saints +1.5.
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
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Washington is 5-8 straight up this year. The Redskins are 5-19-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Redskins are 5-15-1 ATS when playing on field turf. Washington is 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 games overall. Keep in mind that Donavan McNabb is not playing in this game. Dallas is 4-9 straight up thid year. The Cowboys are 18-4 ATS their last 22 games after allowing over 250 yards passing in their last game. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS off an ATS win. Dallas is 4-0 ATS their last 4 December games and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games overall.
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Play on: Buffalo
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The Bills are 7-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) on the road after a home game in which they stopped their opponent more than 67% of their third downs attempts. The Dolphins are 0-15 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since Christmas 2002 as a favorite after a road game in which they converted less than 40% of their 3rd downs and 0-7 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since 2005 when hosting a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. Grab the points.
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New Orleans Hornets vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +4
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When the Detroit Pistons take the floor Sunday evening at the Palace in Auburn Hills, not only will they be trying to rebound from an embarrassing home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers their last time out, but they’ll have same season revenge on their minds as they play host to the New Orleans Hornets.
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The New Orleans Hornets caught the Pistons on the second night of a back-to-back the first time these two teams met earlier this month, and it showed as the Hornets pullled away from a tired Pistons team for the 93-74 victory. This time around, look for a more concerted effort from the host. The Hornets have been a shaky road wager, going just 0-3 ATS as road chalk this season and 5-7 straight-up away from the Big Easy. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home.
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The New Orleans Hornets are the better team and deserved to be favored. However, the marketplace may be undervaluing the host, especially in this role. Look for this one to come down to the final possession, making a play on the host the only way to go. Play on the Detroit Pistons (+) the points for 1 unit.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Washington Redskins +7
The Skins have R.Grossman making the start today for a benched D. Mcnabb. However they fit a solid system here. What we want to do is play on road dogs from +5 to +10 off a home dog loss and ats cover and prior road dog loss. These teams have covered 13 of 16 times since 1980. The Skins are 13-3 ats vs less than .500 teams in December on the road off a loss. They are a solid road dog in this range long term at 32-14 ats. Dallas has failed 5 of 6 times as favorite this season and 3 of 4 times vs an opponent with revenge. Look for Washington to keep this one close today.
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Falcons @ Seahawks
PICK: Over 45.5
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The Falcons and Seahawks are both first place teams. Of course, Atlanta is 11-2 (tied with the Pats for the NFL's best record) while Seattle is 6-7 (and tied for first in the NFC West, the NFL's most pathetic division). Atlanta looks to win its eighth straight and clinch a playoff berth on Sunday, as the team wraps up a stretch of FOUR road games in five weeks. The Falcons have averaged 29.3 PPG during their seven-game wining streak and don't figure to be slowed down by a Seattle defense which ranks 30th in pass yards (266.0 YPG), allowing 23 TDs with just 10 INTs. Matty "Ice" completes 63.2% of his throws (22-8 ratio) and no receiver in the NFL owns more receiving yards than Roddy White (1,219). The Seahawks have only two wins in their last seven games, allowing 38.0 PPG in those five losses. Some good news though, is that Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite WRs, Mike Williams (52 catches) and Ben Obomanu (just 22 catches but 19.5 YPC) are expected to be in the lineup, after both missed last week's game. Seattle has no real running attack (ranks 31st with 84.8 YPG), so I expect Hasselbeck to be throwing plenty of passes and Atlanta's pass D allows 65.8 percent completions and 233.2 YPG (24th). Atlanta gets out to an early lead and Seattle will be playing "catch up" early. Go OVER!
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Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals
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It’s rare that I will take a favorite (or pick) in the NFL that is currently on a horrendous 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS run. However, Cincinnati is staring at wars against San Diego and Baltimore on deck and the Bengals have to know that this is their only shot at another victory in 2010!
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Fortunately for us, this isn’t the greatest technical spot for the visiting Browns. According to my NFL database, regular season division road teams are a weak 30-47 ATS provided they’re playing in the third game of a three game roadtrip. If our “play against” side is matched up against a foe that played on the road last, this angle slips down to a woeful 16-29 ATS!
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Late in the regular season, there is a tendency not to invest on bad teams. I can understand that point. However, this really isn’t a bad spot for Cincinnati. Since 1980, sub .200 teams from game 14 out are a rewarding 44-23-1 ATS provided they’re matched up against an opponent that checks in without momentum off a straight up loss.
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Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer has never lost at home to the Browns (5-0 SU) and facing Cleveland’s defense will be a lot easier than the Steelers stop unit he had to battle last Sunday. There is a solid team trend that will help Cincy’s cause too. Since 1980, from game 12 out, Cincinnati is a solid 25-7 SU and 22-9-1 ATS at home checking in without momentum off a SU and ATS loss.
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The Bengals nasty losing streak started with a loss at Cleveland against the Browns. It’s only fitting that it ends here. Take Cincinnati!
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New England Patriots -14
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The New England Patriots are looking like the best team in the NFL right now and they are facing a Green Bay Packers team that will be without their starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers who is out due to a concussion. Matt Flynn, a seventh-round draft pick out of LSU in 2008, is expected to make his first career start for the Packers and you can be sure that New England head coach Bill Belichick's defensive game plan will not treat Flynn warmly. Tom Brady and the red-hot Patriots could have a chance to clinch the AFC East title and a first-round bye with a win in this game and I expect them to do so in convincing fashion. Lay the points.
JIM FEIST
JETS / STEELERS
PLAY: UNDER
A pair of AFC teams fighting for playoff positioning. The Jets (9-4 SU/8-5 ATS) have collapsed the last two weeks, getting destroyed at New England in a huge showdown, 45-3, and then coming home to face Miami and coughing it up, a 10-6 loss. QB Mark Sanchez (16 TDs, 12 INTs) may have decent overall numbers and several heroic comebacks, but the last eight games he has 8 TDs, 12 picks. The Jets offense has not scored a touchdown in nine quarters. The offense should be balanced, with a good offensive line, RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonne Greene leading a ground attack that is No. 5 in the league. But Miami stacked the line to stop the run Sunday (87 yards, 2.3 ypc) and Sanchez couldn’t get it done. Sanchez was 17-44 for 216 yards with an interception and lost fumble Sunday. In all, the second-year quarterback fumbled four times. The Jets didn't score a touchdown for the second consecutive game. The Jets had gone over the 100-yard rush mark in every game until Sunday. The defense is No. 3 in the NFL in yards allowed and 18.6 ppg. Perhaps most frustrating for the Jets was how they squandered a strong defensive performance, as they also did in losses to Baltimore and Green Bay. Miami had just 131 yards of total offense and six first downs. On 16 Dolphins possessions, the Jets forced three-and-outs nine times - seven times in the second half. The Steelers are in great shape for the No. 2 seed in the AFC, an outside shot at No. 1, with games against the Jets and Panthers at home, then at Browns. And WR Santonio Holmes returns to Heinz Field with the Jets Sunday. Holmes has 41 receptions for 620 yards, 4 TDs. He dropped a pass in the end zone Sunday when he was wide open and the ball hit him in the facemask. It cost the Jets four points when they settled for a field goal in a 10-6 loss to Miami. The Steelers (10-3 SU/9-4 ATS) started 3-1 without their starting QB, but Ben Roethlisberger (13 TDs, 5 INTs) is back, 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS in his nine starts. They’ve developed a decent ground game (123 yds pg) ranked 10th in the NFL behind RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,073 yards, 3.9 ypc) and rookie center Maurkice Pouncey. Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley returned interceptions for Pittsburgh's only touchdowns and the Steelers sent Cincinnati to a franchise record-tying 10th consecutive defeat, winning 23-7 on Sunday. Big Ben didn’t throw a TD pass was terrific, with 258 yards and no turnovers. Pittsburgh had the edge in yards 360-190. Roethlisberger played on a gimpy right foot and wearing a visor in the first half to protect his broken nose. Roethlisberger was sacked just twice, both in the first half, but he continues to take a lot of shots in the pocket. The return of DE Brett Keisel two games ago has solidified the league's No. 1 rush defense, holding the Ravens to 43 yards rushing through three quarters, including just 11 yards on 11 carries in the first half, and Cincy to 34 rush yards! The Steelers have run on nearly half their plays (49.3 percent). That compares to 42.2 percent last season. Speedy WR Mike Wallace has done a nice job replacing Holmes. The offensive line is banged up and has allowed 19 sacks the last five games (5 to the Bills, 3 to Ravens, 4 to the Bengals). The dominant Black and Gold defense is 4th in the NFL in yards, tops in points allowing just 14 ppg. I expect a low scoring game here on Sunday with two dominant defenses. I'm going UNDER.
Stephen Nover
Kansas City at ST. LOUIS (-3)
The Rams are one of the most improved teams in the league and battling to win the NFC West. They are finally inside their dome home after three consecutive road games in which they went 2-1, winning at Denver and Arizona before falling at New Orleans last weekend.
The Chiefs are 1-5 in their last six road matchups, including losing 31-0 at San Diego last week. Meanwhile, the Rams are 4-2 at home.
Brodie Croyle was the Chiefs' quarterback in the loss to San Diego. The result was predictable as Croyle is not worthy of even being a serviceable backup in the NFL. He's 0-10 as an NFL starter.
Matt Cassel is likely to give it a shot returning after missing last week following an appendectomy. Cassel has an excellent touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he's a limited quarterback and won't be at 100 percent if he does give it a go.
The Chiefs do have an outstanding ground game to fall back on. This isn't lost on the Rams, though. St. Louis has come a long ways defensively under Steve Spagnuolo, a highly respected defensive coordinator for the Giants before becoming the Rams head coach.
St. Louis is ranked 12th at stopping the run. The Chiefs average 4.2 yards per carry on the road compared to 5.4 yards per rush attempt at home.
Sam Bradford is going to win Rookie of the Year honors for his steady quarterback play. He has terrible wide receivers, but can alwalys rely on Steven Jackson, a six-time 1,000-yard rusher.
The Chiefs' run defense has shown holes lately giving up a combined 368 yards on the ground during the last two weeks versus San Diego and Denver, which ranks 29th in rushing.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Michael Cannon
Kansas City (+3) at ST. LOUIS
Take the points with the Chiefs on the road over the Rams.
Kansas City should get quarterback Matt Cassel back this week and that’s great news for Chiefs fans.
Cassel had been playing the best football of his career before he was forced out of the lineup due to an appendectomy. He had thrown for 19 TDs against just one INT over his last eight starts.
Look for Kansas City to come out motivated and better prepared today after last week’s embarrassing shutout loss to the Chargers. The Chiefs managed only 67 yards of total offense in the defeat.
St. Louis has improved drastically this year, but I don’t feel this team is quite ready to lay it against another division leader.
Take the points with the Chiefs.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Chris Jordan
Jacksonville (+5) at INDIANAPOLIS
To put it blunty: I don't trust Peyton Manning or the Colts any longer.
Not in a clutch game, not in a must-win, not in anyting.
Just can't trust inconsistency.
And this late in the season, if you're not playing at some level of consistency, you might as well accpet the fact you're not going to be in the postseon. Even worse, you stop earning the respect from you peers.
Now, you want consistency, you look at a team like the Jaguars, who have won six straight and are on the verge of wrapping up the AFC South. In fact, a win over the mighty Colts would hand the Jaguars the division title,
And even though Maurice Jones Drew is quetionable for this game and is likely a gametime decision, I have to menmtion his caaer and against Indy.
Jones-Drew, who has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 165 rushes and 12 career touchdownsn against the Colts, has been the spark plyg for the Jags' offense. He'll be fired up for this one, as it's been a long time his team is the team to beat in this matchup.
Look for the Jags to roll into Indy and win this one, while furthering the Colts' demise this season.
2♦ JACKSONVILLE
Chuck O'Brien
Buffalo (+5') at MIAMI
Now for today’s first complimentary NFL selection, take the Bills plus the points at Miami.
Just cannot trust the Dolphins when the play in South Beach. They’re 1-5 on their home field (averaging just 16.3 ppg and giving 23.5 ppg) but 6-1 on foreign turf (including last Sunday’s upset of the Jets). And its last two home games, Miami has lost to the Browns and Bears, scoring a grand total of 10 points. In fact, Miami has produced just 10, 10, 10 and 0 points in four of its last six contests overall.
Granted, the Bills’ offense has hit the skids lately, too (14.3 ppg last three weeks, 19 points or less in five of their last six games). But the defense has improved, giving up 6, 19, 12, 22 and 13 points in five of seven games since Halloween. Also, Buffalo has rebounded from an 0-8 start by winning three of its last five, and the Bills are on a 6-1-1 spread-covering tear (3-1 ATS on the road).
Additionally, Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 as a road pup of 3 ½ to 10 points and 5-0 ATS in its last five against the AFC.
With the way Miami has struggled at home this year and as dormant as the offense has been, there’s no way you can trust this team to cover anything more than a three-point spread. And in fact, the Fish enter this one in ATS slumps of 17-43-1 at home, 10-29 as a favorite, 6-27 as a home favorite and 1-4 after a SU win.
3♦ BUFFALO
Karl Garrett
Buffalo (+5') at MIAMI
Free play for Sunday will be to grab the points with the Buffalo Bills as they visit the Miami Dolphins.
Miami came up with a gritty win over the Jets last week, but they really did nothing at all on offense, and with Chad Henne having throw 11 interceptions already, it is very hard to have any confidence in the Dolphins covering over a field goal.
The Dolphins are just 1-5 straight up at home this year, and a money-burning 4-15 their last 19 tries when laying points at home.
Buffalo has been a tough out for teams this year, as 5 of their 10 losses this year have come by 5-points or fewer. The Bills are also 4-2 against the spread on the road this year.
G-Man gives the Bills a fighting chance to be in this game all the way.
Take the points.
3♦ BUFFALO
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia (+3) at N.Y. GIANTS
Huge NFC East game at the New Meadowlands this Sunday, and I cannot pass on grabbing the points with an Eagles team that has just owned their division-rival of late.
New York shot themselves in the foot in the first meeting between the teams, turning the ball over 5 times en route to a 17-27 setback.
Philly is now on a 5-game series win and cover streak!
The Eagles are also a money-turning 17-3 straight up in the month of December the past 4-plus years, going 14-5-1 against the spread in those contests.
Odds say the Giants are due for a break through against the Eagles, but with 5 straight losses to the Birds, it sure looks like New York is snake-bit against Philly.
I say grab the points.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Craig Davis
Washington at DALLAS (-7)
Washington is having more and more trouble protecting the quarterback with each passing week and they continue to play the RB carousel, this week expected to go with Ryan Torain. And why not... he rushed for over 125 yards last week and dominated the Bucs, but Washington still lost.
The loss of McNabb at QB is only going to make it difficult for the running game to get going because I just can't see the Cowboys giving up big passing plays to Rexy.
The Redskins have lost three straight and five of their last six and I just can't see any chance for them to come into Dallas and steal a win... especially after the way Game 1 finished up. Take the Cowboys minus the points at home as your free play of the day.
3♦ DALLAS
Stephen Nover
New Orleans (+2) at BALTIMORE
The Saints are playing their best ball having won six in a row. Drew Brees is riding a hot hand as they've scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games. Brees has 10 touchdown passes the past four weeks and can take advantage of a vulnerable Baltimore secondary.
The Ravens are on a short week following Monday's overtime win at Houston. The week before that they had a war with Pittsburgh. They're 1-7 ATS when playing on short rest on a Sunday following a Monday game.
The perception is that the Ravens have a much stronger defense than the Saints. This just isn't true. New Orleans don't have Baltimore big name defenders, but the Saints have forced more turnovers, have more sacks and are giving up fewer yards per game than their more thought of opponent today. They've also allowed a league-low eight touchdown passes.
Baltimore is a bully team that tries to intimidate weak foes at home. But the Ravens have failed to cover five of their last seven home contests when tackling a foe with a winning road mark like the Saints.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Joel Tyson
Atlanta at SEATTLE (+6)
Late day free play this Sunday, and I am gonna grab the points with the desperate Seahawks.
Seattle is in dire need of a win, and at least they are back at home where they have kept their heads above the water line this season going 4-2 both straight up and against the spread.
The Seahawks are also 4-2 ATS following a loss under Pete Carroll this season.
No doubt Atlanta is one of the "elite" teams in the NFC, but this is a very tricky spot for the Falcons, who are playing on the road for the third straight week and fourth time in five games. Seattle's Qwest Field is a long, long way from the Georgia Dome, and don't forget they've got a HUGE lookahead game next Monday back at home against division-rival New Orleans.
This is about as big of a letdown spot as you are going to find at this time of the season.
Take the points.
3♦ SEATTLE
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Jets (+4') at PITTSBURGH
For my comp selection, both of these teams are struggling offensively right now, but the Steelers’ defense has saved them. The Jets now are going into Pittsburgh and I’m expecting them to be able to hang with the Steelers and keep this one close. This is a field-goal game either way, so grab the points and play New York.
A big reason I like the Jets plus the points tonight is the fact Pittsburgh will be without Troy Polamalu who is sitting out with injuries to his calf and Achilles tendon. He has four interceptions in his last four games and he had the game-turning sack and forced fumble against the Ravens on Dec. 5. Without him, Pittsburgh is without their QB on defense.
The Jets’ defense is good enough to shut down the Steelers and their defensive backs will take away WRs Heinz Ward and Mike Wallace. Offensively, New York QB Mark Sanchez knows he can’t turn the ball over against Pittsburgh. He has 12 INTs this season and needs to get something from RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to take the pressure off him.
Prior to the last two games, the Jets had scored at least 23 points in four straight games. They have the ability to move the ball up and down the field, but Sanchez has to protect the ball. New York is on ATS surges of 11-5 against the AFC, 9-3 on the road, 5-2 after a non-cover and 10-4 as an underdog.
The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS after a spread-cover and 2-5 ATS after a straight-up win.
Let’s grab the points and play this one to end up with a field goal margin. Play the Jets today.
4♦ N.Y. JETS
Chuck O'Brien
N.Y. Jets (+4') at PITTSBURGH
Inflated line here because New York has dropped back-to-back games to AFC East rivals New England and Miami, producing just three field goals in the process. Obviously, the Jets’ offense is in a major funk, and the reason is QB Mark Sanchez has regressed in a big way. And while you wouldn’t think Sanchez would get things turned around on the road against the Steelers’ vaunted defense, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if that’s exactly what happens.
That’s because the Steelers will almost certainly be without defensive leader Troy Polamalu (Achilles injury). Add that to Pittsburgh’s laundry list of injuries, which includes pass-rushing specialist Aaron Smith, who has missed the last seven games with a season-ending arm injury. Last year, when Smith and Polamalu were both out, the Steelers’ season went into the toilet (as it is, Pittsburgh is just 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS without Smith this year).
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a MASH unit, with two tackles on injured reserve, two others questionable for this game and tight end Heath Miller out with a concussion. All the injuries up front have resulted in QB Ben Roethlisberger getting pounded by opposing defenses. There’s no doubt Rex Ryan will dial up a bunch of blitzes today to take advantage of the Steelers’ offensive-line woes, and if they get the pressure I think they will, I’m banking on a couple of Big Ben turnovers.
Prior to the last two weeks, the Jets had won nine of 10 overall, five in a row on the road and they were the chic Super Bowl pick. Now they’re a 5½-point underdog – the most points they’ve received all season. And they’re 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a ‘dog, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road pup and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall on the highway. Meanwhile, the Steelers haven’t cashed in consecutive games as a favorite this year (and they’re 0-4 ATS in their last four when coming off a victory of at least two TDs.
4♦ N.Y. JETS
Michael Cannon
New York Jets (+4') at PITTSBURGH
Take the points with the Jets on the road over the Steelers.
Two teams who are struggling offensively meet today in the Steel City.
I’ll take my chances with the points here.
Pittsburgh has just one offensive touchdown in its last 11 quarters of play. The Steelers offensive line is in shambles and it’s the major reason for their ineffectiveness on offense. Ben Roethlisberger continues to take a pounding and Rashard Mendenhall doesn’t have any holes to run through.
Those problems won’t be solved against a stout Jets defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers will be without All-World safety Troy Polomalu. He was injured returning a Carson Palmer interception for a touchdown in last week’s win over the Bengals.
When Polomalu is not playing, there is a significant dropoff in the Steelers defense.
Having No. 43 out of the lineup has to be music to the ears of Mark Sanchez, who has struggled recently.
Take the points with the Jets for the road cover.
3♦ NY JETS
Bobby Maxwell
Indiana (+10') at BOSTON
I have a FREE winner today coming from the NBA hardwood as I grab the points with the Pacers who travel to Boston to take on the Celtics.
For my comp selection, the Celtics have certainly dominated the Pacers in this series, but when it comes to the betting window, Indiana is the team that has been cashing tickets the last few seasons. They are 4-1 ATS in the last five series meetings and they are catching way too many points in this one. Play Indiana.
Boston has won five of the last six against the Pacers, but they haven’t been covering the huge numbers put up on the board. Indy has cashed in two of the last three trips to Boston and just scored a 108-99 win over Cleveland on Friday.
The Celtics are riding a 12-game winning streak and I’m not saying that Indiana is going to pull into Boston and pull off the upset, but the amount of points is just too much to pass up. The Pacers’ Danny Granger is a tough matchup for anybody and he just had a 30-point, 12-rebound performance against the Cavs.
Boston is on ATS slides of 3-8-1 at home against teams with losing road records. Indiana is on ATS runs of 5-2-2 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 on Sundays and 7-3 on the road against teams with a home winning percentage of better than .600. The underdog is 20-8 ATS in this series and with this many points it’s easy to see why that streak will improve today. Play the Pacers.
2♦ INDIANA
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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Cleveland Browns
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It's laughable that a Cincinnati team on a current ten-game losing streak would be a favorite against anybody, but that's exactly what we have here today. We'll back Cleveland to win this game outright, especially now that Colt McCoy is expect to return to the QB position. The Browns played very well behind McCoy, including outright upset wins over New Orleans and New England, and now face a Bengals side that is a pitiful 1-5 SU at home. Browns still playing with intensity while Cincy has clearly given up on the season weeks ago.
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Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
PICK: Seattle Seahawks +7
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The Falcons, on paper, certainly are vastly superior to the Seahawks. However from a situational standpoint, this game sets up very poorly for Atlanta. The Falcons are playing their 3rd straight road game and 4th in 5 weeks. Also, they have a huge Monday Night Football game (revenge situation) versus the Saints on deck. That makes it very hard for the Falcons to be fully focused on the Hawks after a cross country trip and with such a huge game up ahead and staring them straight in the face. The Falcons are facing a Seahawks team that is 4-2 ATS in home games this season.
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Seattle is ready to bounce back after last week’s embarrassing 40-21 loss at San Francisco. Helping Seattle this week is the expected wet weather that certainly could help neutralize what would have otherwise been a speed edge for the Falcons in this one. Look for Atlanta to drop to 23-38 ATS when they are off of a win against a division rival (Falcons beat Carolina last week). Also, look for the Seahawks to improve to 15-8 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Consider a small play on Seattle plus the points on Sunday afternoon.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
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This game was highlighted by SportsInsights.com's Opening Line Report, as posted on our blog. This game remains the heaviest-bet game of the week. It is also, by far, the most lopsided-bet game of the week. Including teasers and parlays, more than 90% of the bets are taking the red-hot Falcons. It doesn't get more one-sided than that! As usual, our readers will say that "betting against the Public" and taking the Seahawks -- is one "ugly-looking" play.
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The 11-2 Falcons have the best record in the NFC and have won seven games in a row. Meanwhile, the Seahawks stand at 6-7. CRIS opened the line at Atlanta -6.5, but early sharp action on Seattle moved the line down to Atlanta -6. This indicates the existence of "big, smart, money" on Seattle as a live, home dog. We'll "bet against the Public" and tail the "smart money" in this match-up. Below are some other notes on this match-up that SportsInsights' analysts studied:
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* Atlanta has won seven games in a row, so we are "selling at a high."
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* Seven of Atlanta's eleven victories have been by a TD or less, meaning that they have not blown many teams out.
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* Although Atlanta is tied with New England for the best record in the NFL, their net points (Points For - Points Against) of +92 is tied with Pittsburgh for fourth best in the NFL.
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* Seattle's net points of -68 shows that overall, they have been competitive this season.
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* After a 4-2 start, Seattle has gone 2-5 over its past seven games, getting blown out in those five losses. Let's "buy them at a low" and try to grab some value.
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* Seattle is a "live home dog," with a 4-2 record at home -- and getting about a touchdown's worth of points..
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* Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.
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Remember to shop around for the best line, monitor the latest line -- and try to grab the key number of seven. Grab Seattle +7 if you see it. Currently, several public books such as Bodog and SIA have the game listed at +7.
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Seattle Seahawks +7
Hollywood Sports
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta (11-2) is rolling right along after their seventh win in a row with their 31-10 victory in Carolina. But this will be the Falcons' third game in a row on the road -- with the challenge of making the cross country trip to play in Seattle. And with a Monday night showdown with their arch rival New Orleans coming up next week, the possibilities of Atlanta looking ahead is certainly understandable. Seattle (6-7) remains a very motivated football team as they are tied with St. Louis for first place in the NFC West. Pete Carroll's club has won four of their six games at home this season. And as a home underdog of 3.5-10 points, the Seahawks have covered 4 of their last 5 games. While they come off a disappointing 40-21 loss at San Francisco last week, Seattle has covered 9 of their last 13 games after allowing their previous opponent to score at least 30 points. Atlanta only wants a victory and they are being asked to cover too much wood in this one. Take Seattle with the points over Atlanta.