Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on NY Giants -2.5
This game is all about revenge for the Giants, who have lost 5 straight to the Eagles. If it weren't for 5 turnovers, I strongly believe the Giants win the season's first meeting. While turnovers have been a problem for New York all season, the G-Men have done a much better job of taking care of the ball since that game, committing only 3 turnovers while forcing 9. I expect this trend to continue because of how well New York is running the football. The Giants rank 4th in the NFL with 148.3 yards per game on the ground. They have really kicked things into high gear lately, rushing for 197 yards on the Redskins and 213 on Minnesota. The Eagles have allowed their last 3 opponents to go over the century mark on the ground, and New York should be able to take advantage with its power running game in this one. Plays on all teams (when the line is +3 to -3) revenging a loss against an opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season, are 26-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by 6.9 points on average. Lay the number.
BIG AL
Browns @ Bengals
PICK: Over 40
At first glance, I was looking to take the Bengals here. After all, it’s Cleveland’s 3rd straight road game, and NFL teams tend to do poorly in that situation. But when I broke it down, I realized that the teams you want to go against in their 3rd straight road game are the ones off a straight-up win. Those teams are a poor 38-71 ATS playing their 3rd road game in a row. However, if a team comes into its 3rd straight road game off a loss, then they actually cover the spread slightly more than half the time: they’re 56-53 against the spread since 1980. Still, it’s not a great situation for Cleveland as it is its final road game of the season, and bad NFL teams tend to mail in their last road game of the year when they have at least 2 home games left to play. They tend to cover the spread in that final road game about 30% of the time.
The flipside, though, is that it’s not a great situation for Cincinnati either. The Bengals have lost 10 straight games, and there’s an old gambling adage which says, “Don’t make a bad team win for you.” And there’s a lot of truth in that, especially when it comes to the NFL. It’s one thing to take a bad team as an underdog. There, they don’t actually have to win the game straight up to cover the spread. But when a bad team is a favorite, you need them to not only win the game, but also to cover the number. And that’s generally asking a lot. For example, teams off 3 straight losses are 196-240 against the spread as a favorite. Now, one might think that a team on a losing streak would have an easier time of it vs. another opponent that’s also off a loss. But our favorites on a 3-game or worse losing streak actually do better against teams off a win than teams off a loss. When matched up against a team off a loss, they’re 110-160 against the spread since 1980. And if we make our losing streak 5 or more games instead of 3 games, then the record is 20-38 ATS as a favorite vs. a foe off a loss.
So, instead of playing on a side in this game, let’s look at the over/under. And here, I think there’s a decent bet to be made.
Both teams’ offenses took a holiday last week. The Browns scored just 6 points against the Bills, while Cincy managed just 7 points against Pittsburgh. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play the ‘under’ in a situation like this, where two teams meet after each scored less than 10 points the previous week. But this situation tends to produce games that go ‘over’ the total, and especially when the line is 39 points or more. Those go ‘over’ about 65 percent of the time. Here, the over/under has been installed at 40 points, so let’s play it ‘over.’
Kyle Hunter
Dartmouth vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -25
The Iowa State Cyclones have been making a habit of dismantling poor teams at home, and Dartmouth is definitely a bad team. Dartmouth lost at Providence earlier this year 87-52. They also lost by 27 points at Vermont. The Big Green just don't have enough athletes to keep up with a team that runs like Iowa State. The Cyclones are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Dartmouth is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games. I expect Iowa State to get running right from the opening tip, and this one should get ugly very quickly. Take the Cylcones here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Packers/Patriots UNDER 43.5
It will be difficult for the Green Bay Packers to put points on the board without Aaron Rodgers under center today. We saw how much trouble that had scoring the football when he missed most of last week's game against Detroit. With Rodgers out, Green Bay will have to put a bigger emphasis on its running game. This also works in our favor as it keeps the clock moving. While the Green Bay offense will struggle, the defense should be able to have some success slowing down the Pats. The Packers rank No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense, only allowing 14.5 ppg. They also rank third in the league against the pass, only allowing 196.8 yards per game through the air. New England realizes it may have to run the football more against this defense, which once again plays in our favor. Green Bay is a perfect 7-0 UNDER in road games this season. Bet the Under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Denver Broncos +8
I'll back the Broncos catching better than a TD in this highly motivated spot. Following last week's pathetic performance, and out to avenge an embarrassing loss to Oakland earlier this season, expect the Broncos to show up this afternoon. This team went on the road and played the Chiefs to an 8-point game 2 weeks ago, so it is more than capable of playing the Raiders close. Denver's running game has started to pick up steam, and that will be the key to a cover here. Oakland's defense was seriously exposed, allowing 234 yards on the ground, in last week's loss at Jacksonville. That's no fluke either as the Raiders have been gashed on the ground 3 of the last 4 weeks. Plays on road teams (DENVER) off an embarrassing upset loss by 21 points or more, after the first month of the season, are 29-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams in this spot are actually winning by an average score of 26.0 to 23.1. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO +8 over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers will play the final leg of a long seven-game road trip that started 12 days ago. They only lost one game on said trip and that was the team’s only defeat over their last eight overall. Surely, there is no urgency here and one has to believe the Lakers are anxious to get home in preparation for their annual Christmas day showdown, only this year it’s against the Big-3 and the Heat. Kobe Bryant hurt is pinkie in the Lakers last game in Philly and reports are that he’s having trouble handling the ball. Bryant scored just nine points in that Friday contest. The Raps are one of the three worst defensive teams in the league and that’s why they win so few games. However, they’re usually in games, they’re .500 at home and they always seem to give the Lakers fits. The last three games between the teams have been close, decided by a total of eight points. The Lakers beat the Raptors by five points at Staples Center in November. The Lakers lost by one point in Toronto last year and they defeated the Raps by just two in L.A. a season ago. Toronto ranks ninth in the Association in points per game with 101.9. So, what we have here is a young and jacked up Rap squad playing a banged up Kobe Bryant and Lakers team that does not take this host seriously and is looking forward to getting home. Play: Toronto +7½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Stan Lisowski
Saints / Ravens Over
The Ravens have gone over 7 of 11 games against the NFC. The Saints have scored 30 or more points themselves in 5 consecutive games now. 4 of their 6 away games have totaled 47 or higher. On the road against the AFC, 4 of New Orleans' last 5 games have hit 50 points or more.
Vic Duke
Texans vs. Titans
Play: Under 47½
Three of the last 4 in this series went "under" and we'll look for a lower scoring game here. The Texans are 2-7 O/U vs teams under .500, and they're 3-8 O/U in December. The Titans are 3-9 O/U as a small favorite. The Texans are coming off a devastating MNF loss and should be flat here. The Texans, however, have shown signs of improvement defensively and should limit the Titans trips to the end zone.
DUNKEL INDEX
NHL
Washington at Ottawa
The Senators look to bounce back from a 6-5 loss in Colorado and build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Ottawa is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105)
Game 1-2: Dallas at Detroit (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.132; Detroit 11.024
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+170); Under
Game 3-4: Los Angeles at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.847; Chicago 12.802
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145); Over
Game 5-6: Washington at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.107; Ottawa 10.917
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105); Under
Game 7-8: Montreal at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.327; Colorado 11.977
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125); Over
NBA
Atlanta at New Jersey
The Nets look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games as a home underdog. New Jersey is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+4)
Game 801-802: Indiana at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.769; Boston 131.746
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 15; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9; 192
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-9); Over
Game 803-804: Atlanta at New Jersey (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.115; New Jersey 115.911
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+4); Under
Game 805-806: LA Lakers at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 121.727; Toronto 112.751
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 202
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7); Under
Game 807-808: Houston at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.319; Sacramento 115.250
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 4; 204
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+4); Over
Game 809-810: New Orleans at Detroit (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.623; Detroit 109.572
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 5; 187
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4 1/2); Over
Game 811-812: Phoenix at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 115.057; Oklahoma City 123.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 215
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+10); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Orleans Hornets at Detroit Pistons
The Hornets are on a ridiculous streak of going Under the total. They've done so in ten straight games and are 9-0 Under when facing a team with a losing record this season. They are also 11-3 Under as a favorite and 11-1 Under in road games. The Pistons average just 94.4 PPG and the meeting between these teams nine days ago resulted in a 93-74 final.
Play on: Under
Steve Merril
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: New York Jets +4.5
The Jets have gone from the penthouse to the outhouse in two short weeks. New York was everybody’s Super Bowl pick after they ran off a 9-1 stretch from Week 2 to Week 11. But then the Jets were waxed by 42 points in New England on a Monday night. Off that loss, many believed the Jets would bounce back strong and blowout Miami last week. We were not part of that group as we played the Dolphins last week knowing the Jets would be suffering a hangover from the humiliation in New England. And they came flat as can be last week in their 10-6 home loss to the Dolphins. Off another bad loss, the Jets bandwagon is empty. New York is now viewed as a fraud, a team that was overrated and taking advantage of a weak schedule. Nobody wants any part of the Jets now, but we see this as a tremendous spot to play on them. Off back-to-back losses, this is the game the Jets will play at their peak level, especially against a quality team like the Steelers. The Jets are not nearly as bad as the last two weeks, and they actually have a big match-up edge going into this game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers will be without Troy Polamalu, and his absence in the Pittsburgh secondary is a big hole that the Jets can take advantage of. Many think the Jets are a running team, but in reality they are a big-play passing offense. And without Polamalu in the secondary, the Pittsburgh defense will really struggle in containing the Jets’ deep passing plays, especially against a hungry unit that hasn’t scored a touchdown in two games. This is also a big game for Santonio Holmes who returns to Pittsburgh for the first time since they traded him away. We expect him and the whole Jets passing offense to have a big game here, and off the forgivable back-to-back losses, we’ll take the points with the unwanted underdog Jets here.
John Ryan
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: New York Jets +4.5
The Jets offensive line was dominated by the Miami defensive front in last week’s loss. The Jets allowed six sacks and were able to gain just 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. Both of those stats must be polar opposites for the Jets to win and I strongly believe that will be the case in this game. To get the running game going look for spread formations with situational shot gun formations. Spreading the Steeler defense will open up space for the running game between the tackles, but look for Sanchez to throw deep vertical routes in their first possession. Any vertical routes early will immediately eliminate the Steelers placing seven and eight men int he box. The spread formation also will help Sanchez determine where the blitz may be coming from and in turn allow him to identify the ‘hot receiver’ in man coverage. Another scheme that will work well for the Jets running game are simple slant and drag routes, which are essentially long hand offs. The Steelers are excellent in making tackles in space, but again it forces them to respect the variable formations and plays run out of each of them. Draw plays will be completely useless as they take far too long to develop. Quick hitting runs and passes in combination with double move vertical routes will work very well for the Jets. The Jets wager is supported by a system that has produced a 64-31 ATS record for 67.4% winners since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are average passing teams gaining between 5.9-6.7 yards per attempt and now facing as solid passing defense allowing 5.9-6.7 passing yards per attempt after 8+ games of the regular season and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Good teams learn how to recover from a tough divisional loss like the Jets suffered last week to the Miami Dolphins. The Jets are just 22-8 ATS off a home loss against a division rival since 1992. Take the Jets.
Craig Trapp
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
DET has not won a road game this year and with third string Stafford starting don't expect them to have a chance today. Only a injury last week gave them chance last week. TB has a chance to make playoffs if they can win out and this must win will have them jacked up. Look for TB to win this one on the defensive side by getting a ton of Turnovers from Stafford and company.
Jack Jones
Kansas City Chiefs +3
There is a good chance Matt Cassel goes today, and even if he doesn't the Chiefs have enough to beat the Rams. Kansas City is built behind a great running game and a stout defense, and both will be on display Sunday against St. Louis. Kansas City is going to be very hungry following the beating they took from the Chargers last week, and you will see this squad come together as a team to give one of their best efforts of the season. Kansas City is rushing for 165 YPG on the ground this year while averaging a whopping 4.8 YPC. The Chiefs are a very profitable 32-17 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
This play falls under a system that is 74-34 (69%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against home favorites (ST LOUIS) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Another system working in the Chiefs favor is 22-6 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (ST LOUIS) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
Rocketman
Atlanta @ New Jersey
Play: New Jersey +3.5
Atlanta is 0-6 SU and ATS last 3 years on the road when the total is 180 to 184 1/2. New Jersey is 21-5 SU at home vs Atlanta since 1996. Hawks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic. Hawks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest. Hawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast. Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Hawks are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in New Jersey. We'll recommend a small play on New Jersey today!