O.C. Dooley
Indianapolis Colts -4.5
Indianapolis is battling for their playoff lives in part due to a massive injury outbreak that has forced superstar quarterback Peyton Manning to take on too much of the load. But the fact of the matter in this particular matchup is that Jacksonville is actually dealing with more INJURIES which is the key to this selection. One cannot underestimate the importance of Maurice Jones-Drew who leads the league in rushing (768) and has rambled for more than 100 ground yards in SIX consecutive games. Jones-Drew will take the field today, but is NOT 100% after missing practice time due to a knee injury. In each of the 5 victories that Jacksonville has had in this series ever since becoming a Divisional rival, they have had a running back go for more than 100 yards each time. Jaguars quarterback David Garrard (hamstring) also has made an appearance on this week’s injury report. On defense Jacksonville lists both safety Courtney Greene (shoulder) and linebacker Justin Durant (groin) as OUT which hurts the depth of a stop-unit that had problems at home against Oakland one week ago. Greene just happens to be the third leading tackler and will be missed. I have found out that Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell has urged his team to RUN the football more often as the team has won 7 in a row when rushing at least 22 games in a contest. Even though Joseph Addai (neck) has just been officially ruled out, I am expecting the Colts to gain plenty of yards on the ground. For the first time since suffering a concussion wide receiver Austin Collie definitely WILL return this afternoon for the Colts who also are slated to also get back tight end Jacob Tamme (knee). On the other side of the football Indianapolis lists cornerback Kelvin Hayden (neck) as “probable” which is also good news for a team that has had its share of problems in the injury department. As mentioned earlier in this analysis Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed for more than 100 yards in 6 consecutive games, which opens a very interesting angle from my database research. In the past two years Indianapolis is an outstanding 8-1 ATS when up against a solid rushing opponent who averages at least 4’ yards per carry. To add even more fuel to the fire Peyton Manning when off an outright win and exacting “revenge” against an opponent is an incredible 20-0 SU/17-3 ATS which makes this a very high percentage wager