Larry Ness
New England vs. Miami
Pick: Over
The New England Patriots can clinch their NINTH East title in 10 seasons by beating the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. They are 28-6 in AFC East play over the past six seasons, winning eight in a row since a loss at Buffalo in Week 3 of 2011. The most lopsided victory in that recent stretch came on Thanksgiving night with a 49-19 rout of the New York Jets at Met Life Stadium. The Patriots broke the game open by tying a franchise record with 35 points in the second quarter, including three TDs in a span of 52 seconds, en route to their fifth win in a row. The Patriots have the NFL's best offense, averaging 435.8 YPG and 37.0 PPG on the season and in their five-game winning streak, are averaging 43.8 PPG with Tom Brady throwing 14 TDs and not a single INT in 177 attempts (his TD-to-INT ratio for the season is 24-3). New England’s added a dangerous ground game this season (team’s best in three decades), averaging 143.7 YPG on 4.3 YPC. Ridley has come out of nowhere to gain 939 yards on 4.6 YPC. The Patriots' offense has turned the ball over a league-low eight times, while the 32 turnovers created by the defense ranks only behind Chicago's 33 (plus-24 TO margin is an NFL-best). New England has forced 16 turnovers while giving it away twice during its five-game winning streak. The Dolphins ended a three-game losing streak with a 24-21 home win over the Seahawks last Sunday and while it hardly seems like it, the Dolphins are only a game behind Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the AFC's final playoff berth. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has shown signs he can play in this league but overall, numbers never lie. He’s got just seven TDs and 12 INTs on the season for a 72.9 QB rating (ranks 31st). Reggie Bush had a breakout season last year but has just 662 rushing yards this season, gaining more than 100 yards just once, with a 172-yard effort vs Oakland in Week 2. In NINE of his other 11 games he’s gained 70 yards or less, FIVE times not reaching 50. Tannehill needs a running game to survive and he’s NOT getting it. This will be Belichick’s first look at Tannehill. That should spell bad news for the rookie. Belichick came into this season with a 10-3 record vs rookie QBs in a first meeting, holding them to 54% and an 11-21 ratio. However, up at Seattle in Week 6, against rookie Russell Wilson, the Pats let a 23-10 lead slip away in the final 7 1/2 minutes of the game, as Wilson was 16-of-27 for 293 yards with three TDs and no INTS. However, in Week 11, Belichick took on this year’s No. 1 overall pick, Andrew Luck, for the first time and it was “business as usual.” Luck did throw for 334 yards but he had three INTs (two returned for TDs) and a 63.3 QB rating for the game. Belichick (plus Brady) vs Tannehill just doesn’t seem like a fair fight. I fully expect the Pats to cover but why not also play this game over? The Pats went “under” in Weeks 1 & 2 but have since seen their last NINE games go “over!” Why would that streak end here?
Chris Elliott
Tampa Bay vs. Denver
Pick: Over
Denver QB Peyton Manning faces the worst pass defense in the NFL Sunday while Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman has taken his game to another level this season with 2,761 yards 21 TD and a 94.3 QB rating. Manning has been tearing up the league with 3,260 yards, 26 TD and a 104.8 QB rating with one of the most effective quick strike attacks in the league. Look for Manning to exploit the Bucs defense that gives up 315.5 YPG in the air.
Bucs games have been full of scoring for most of the season with the Over cashing 7-3-1 to date. The offense is averaging 365.4 yards per game to go along with 28.2 PPG. Running back Doug Martin has had a massive rookie season with 1,050 yards and 9 TD. Overall in 2012 the Bucs defense has allowed 397.1 total YPG and 23.1 PPG. Bucs games have averaged a total of 51.3 PPG. The Bucs have the worst ranked pass defense in the league and to make matters worse, CB Eric Wright has been suspended for 4 games while top corner Talib was traded to New England last month.
The Denver Broncos have won 6 consecutive games and are now an excellent 8-3 on the season to lead the AFC West by 4 games. John Elway certainly knew what he was doing in the offseason targeting future first ballot hall of famer Peyton Manning. Manning has exceeded all expectations to date with 3,260 yards, 26 TD and a 104.8 QB rating.
Top RB Willis McGahee has been placed on the injured reserve with a knee injury, however the Broncos have depth at the position with youngsters, 2012 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman, 2009 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno and undrafted Lance Ball. The Broncos are 3rd in the NFL scoring an average of 28.9 PPG and 4th in total yards with 391.8. On defense they are allowing 20.8 PPG while averaging a total of 49.7 PPG. Broncos games have gone Over this season 7-4 including 3-1 in the last 4.
Look for the QBs to make plays on Sunday as this game shoots Over the total. Good luck betting!
John Ryan
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers
The simulator shows a high probability that GB will win this game by 13 or more points. GB is banged up, especially on the OL. However, I don’t see Minnesota’s defense being able to exploit this fact. GB goes as Aaron Rogers goes and after last week’s pasting by the Giants, I am certain that he will have a very solid game. The Packers defense has been steadily improving in the shadows of all the media focus on the Packer Ol and offensive output. Last year the Packers led the NFl in PPG and this season they are 13th averaging 24.8 PPG. This is misunderstood, in my opinion, and the media is missing the boat on the more balanced offensive attack that is well supported by a much improved defensive unit. Last season, the Packers had to put up points and hope to outscore their opponent. This year, Rogers has the luxury, of not having to win the game all by himself. So, it is still true that the Packers are dependent on Rogers to win games, but not dependent on him to score 35 points per game. GB ranks eighth in the NFL converting 42% of their third down situations and fourth scoring a TD 63% of all red zone possessions. By comparison, the Vikings rank 25th converting 34% of their third conversions and 19th scoring a TD on 50% of their red zone possessions. Moreover, Rogers will be going up against a Vikings pass defense thank ranks 24th allowing 64% pass completions. Take the Packers.
Dave Price
Oakland Raiders +2.5
This is a big letdown spot for the Browns following last week's big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders, meanwhile, will be in extreme bounce-back mode following four consecutive losses. Plays on home underdogs or pickems off a road blowout loss of 14 points or more, in the month of December, are 74-34 ATS since 1983. The Browns are 0-5 on the road this season and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. They have been a solid investment against good teams but are 0-6 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 18.2 to 15.3. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings with 2 of those, including last season's 24-17 victory, belonging to the Raiders. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5
The Steelers won't have Big Ben, but they have the defense to keep this one within the number. They played the Ravens to a 13-10 game two weeks ago as they held them to just 200 yards. Close games have been a staple in this series with 6 of the last 8 meetings being decided by 3 points. And get this. Pittsburgh has won or played the Ravens to a 3-point game in 10 of the last 11 matchups. Grab the points.
Dave Cokin
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers keep inventing new ways to blow leads in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Look for more of the same as surging Cincinnati pays a visit to San Diego. The Bengals get my vote today.
Andy Iskoe
San Francisco -7
These teams played to a rare tie in San Francisco 3 weeks ago. 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has shown to be an excellent head coach and has been making all the right decisions, including inserting second year QB Colin Kaepernick into the lineup to replace an effective but limited Alex Smith. The Rams have made strides under first year coach Jeff Fisher but as we get deeper into the season the lack of overall talent and depth has become apparent. The Niners enjoy statistical and fundamental edges on both sides of the football and should wear down the Rams in the second half. Specifically, San Francisco has allowed the fewest points in the league (14.1 per game) and has the # 2 rushing offense (163 ypg) and the # 4 rushing defense (91 ypg). The Niners also possess the # 2 passing defense (187 ypg) and an offense that has lost only 11 turnovers all season.
Joe Gavazzi | NFL Side
Seattle +3 ½
Injuries to Chicago RB Forte and WR Hester severely compromise the Bears chances in this one. Though QB Cutler returns, the Bears suffered multiple injuries in their 28-10 victory against Vikings. Most notable, are those in the OL which leave guards Williams, Spencer and Louis ailing for this week's action. That is bad news for the Bears against a fierce Seattle pass rush which is among NFL leaders with 29 sacks. Bears have played a relatively easy schedule. Their 3 losses have come against the tough defensive fronts of GB, Houston and SF. In those three games, the Bears scored a total of just 23 points. Last week, we lost the 4% LTS play on the Seahawks when a roughing the passer penalty wiped out a game changing interception in the end zone, which would have given Seattle a probable victory. Though the Seahawks are not as potent offensively on the road where they average just 16 PPG, we cannot ignore their history in this role, which finds them to be 16-2 ATS, 11-1 ATS and 5-0 ATS as underdog. Combined with their advantages at the point of attack the outright victory is the probable outcome in the eyes of this bureau.
Charlie Scott
Cardinals vs. Jets
Play:Over 36.5
This looks like an old fashioned ugly game with an old low Total. We haven't seen many 36 Totals lately in the NFL. The Cards will start a 3rd string Rookie QB to replace an ineffective Skelton vs the Jets Sanchez with NO Tebow. AZ is 3-1 OVER 36 their last 4, While the NYJ are 9-2 OVER 36 this season. I expect some Defensive TD's, Bad Teams can make You money ! PLAY OVER !
Scott Delaney
As for your free play for Sunday, I want you playing the Philadelphia Eagles plus the 10-1/2 points in Dallas. This isn't about what the Eagles can do, it's more about what the Dallas Cowboys are failing to do.
Sure, we have two different brands of football - one that has seemingly called it quits on the season, and another that approaches each week looking to make a run at the postseason. But the latter team in that statement - the Pokes, it tends to give in during games, and that's why it's having another disappointing season.
I refuse to buy into any sort of philosophy the Cowboys are selling, from this point forward, and as long as Jason Garrett is the head coach. He doesn't come across as one, he doesn't act like one and the team certainly does not respond to him like one.
So while there are many who are questioning the Eagles' leadership, or lack thereof, I think the Cowboys are in the same boat and just aren't as banged up as Philly.
The Cowboys are mired in ATS slides of 5-16 against the NFC, 3-9 against losing teams, 2-8 in intradivision play and 1-5 in December. I think Dallas should win this game, but it'll be so ugly, and it'll stay under double digits.
Look for this to fall around 24-20
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chuck O'Brien
The Baltimore Ravens need to win just one more football game to earn a playoff bid for a fifth straight season.
To do so, they need to beat a team struggling to put points on the board, a team that has lost two straight and a team with major concerns at the quarterback spot.
Problem is, said team is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And I don't care if they're wheeling Terry Bradshaw out to the huddle, this is still the Steelers-Ravens, and it's easily one of the most heated rivalries in the league. Thus, I'll gladly take the points (+7') in this one.
I know the Ravens have won 15 straight at home, and 12 in a row against division foes, but Roethlisberger might be back and realistically all the Steelers need to do is stay close. The last time Baltimore lost at home? Pittsburgh won 13-10 in December 2010.
Baltimore's 16th-ranked offense still has to contend with the Steelers' top-ranked defense, which comes in looking to avenge last week's debacle against the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh's league-leading defense allowing 257.2 yards per game, and the stop unit will supposedly receive a boost today with the return of safety Troy Polamalu, who has missed nine of his team's first 11 games.
What I've learned about the Steelers, who have covered 10 of their last 12 after a straight-up loss, is when everything seems to be going against them - the defense steps up big.
Sure, the Ravens can still win the AFC North with a victory here and a Bengals loss in San Diego; it's more about the cover. Given the sense or urgency the Steelers must play with - if they lose they'll be eliminated from contention in the AFC North - I think we're in for another physical tussle that finishes with a 3- or 4-point margin on either side of the ball.
Six of last seven regular-season games between these two rivals have been decided by three points. Why should this one be any different? Take the underdog, which incidentally, has covered nine of the last 12 series showdowns.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Craig Davis
I have identified a few things I believe the Dolphins must do in order to pull the upset... but first, a little bit about this team.
First off, they are throwing and catching the ball a little better than I believed they could. Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are on pace for over 1000 yards receiving and accomplished this in an offense that doesn't run the ball particularly well.
They are also healthier than they've been in a while as only FB Jorvorskie Lane is questionable. New England, on the other hand, is going to miss this game as will G Logan Mankins.
It was no coincidence that the Dolphins scored 24 points Sunday against Seattle while finally finding a running game again, was it? They rushed for nearly 200 yards against a Seattle defense that has been pretty good against the run.
The running game opened up the passing game, especially with play-action, and the Dolphins had some big plays because of it.
The other thing the Dolphins MUST do is get pressure on Tom Brady. DE/LB Cameron Wake has slowed down in getting sacks, but he's always a threat and if he can get some early pressure on Brady like I think he should, it will only help the defense with their intensity.
Free play of the day on the Miami Dolphins over the Patriots plus the points.
1♦ MIAMI
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is a NFL total.
Go Over in the Patriots-Dolphins game.
The New England Express rolls its way into Sun Life Stadium having scored an unreal 108 points (most in the NFL since 1950) over the last pair of games, and they are averaging almost 48 points per game over their last four contests.
Not surprisingly, the Patriots have played to Overs in nine straight games.
Miami snapped a string of five straight Unders with an Over last weekend at home against Seattle, and while they have been predominantly an Under team this season, when playing the Patriots that has not been the case.
Series numbers show Overs in the last four meetings, and six of the last eight overall between these AFC East Division rivals.
It is a blue moon when the Patriots combine to play an Under these days, so instead of looking for the spot where the New England attack sputters, stick with the trends and play the Over in Miami this afternoon.
4♦ NEW ENGLAND-MIAMI OVER
Chris Jordan
Just a few weeks back the San Francisco 49ers played to a tie with the lowly St. Louis Rams. Today I fully expect the best out of the Niners, who should win this game by double digits. I'll weigh in immediately on the big ass elephant in the room, and that is Colin Kaepernick.
He, in my opinion, may have single-handidly saved the Niner's season. Sounds drastic, but I mean that in every sense of the statement. San Francisco was going to have a winning season, we know that. But with him in, it can continue to have a dominating season. I think with Alex Smith, the team suffers a couple more disappointing losses, which could have done damage mentally to the Niners.
The UNR-product has been setting an example for quite some time, if you hadn't known, as he's one of the first to arrive at the team facility everyday, and now as the starting quarterback, I would think many others are skipping past the snooze button and are eager to get to Centennial Boulevard in Santa Clara, California.
For the third consecutive week the sophomore pro will lead the Niners' offense on the field, as he's been impressive in wins over the Bears and Saints - two the NFC's elite teams. Kaepernick has completed 48 of 74 passes for 680 yards and three touchdowns with one interception and was sacked six times. He has a 102.3 passer rating.
Will this be another Drew Bledsoe/Tom Brady situation, and have we seen the last of Smith? It's still too early to tell what reigning NFL Coach of the Year Jim Harbaugh has up his sleeve. But one thing is for sure, the Niners have a rejuvenated attitude with Kaepernick on the field.
Lay the chalk, and make note with this point spread, I want you buying the half point down off the listed 7-1/2, which I see everywhere. A couple of my colleagues like to be stubborn just to try to prove a point, and will call the situation out when they're right, but the fact is, when buying the half point works, the opponents to the wiseguy move are nowhere to be found. Regardless, everyone knows common sense with lines of 3, 4 and 7 - you NEVER get beat by the hook! So if your book is offering Frisco -7 or -7', buy the half point down.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Matt Rivers
Sunday NFL free play winner is New England over Miami.
The Dolphins were able to hang on against the Seahawks last week at home, stopping a three game straight up and against the spread losing streak, but with just 41 total points scored in their last three games, I have a feeling Miami will be hard-pressed to keep pace with a New England team that has been "ringing the bell" with regularity these days.
The Patriots have come up with 190 points (47.5 ppg average), their last four games, and enter the Sunshine State on a five game winning streak. Against the spread the Pats have been able to cover in their last pair of wins and in three of their last four overall.
It is doubtful to me that Ryan Tannehill is going to be able to trade blows with Tom Brady for the full four quarters, and the fact New England is on a 4-1 run both straight up and against the spread their last five visits at Sun Life Stadium pretty much should tell you all you need to know about this one.
Go with the Patriots to continue their late-season upswing.
3♦ MIAMI