Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 20,2009

Joseph D'Amico
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -6½
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Cincinnati has had some problems lately putting points on the board. They have averaged just 16.8 PPG their L6 games. QB Carson Palmer has thrown only 4 TD's in those 6 outings. Their defense has kept the Bengal's alive. But this week, they have to face the San Diego juggernaut. The Charger's are averaging 27.8 PPG on the arm of QB Philip Rivers and the legs of RB LaDanian Tomlinson. The Bolt's are 16-0 SU in December since 06'. This game will most likely decide the #2 seed inthe AFC. I will give the advantage to the experience of HC Norv Turner and the Charger's. The Bengal's are 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. San Diego and 0-4 ATS their L4 overall. The Charger's are 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. teams with a losing record, 5-1 ATS their L6 overall, 9-2 ATS their L11 games played in December, and 21-6 ATS their L27 as a home favorite of 3 1/2 - 10 points. San Diego wins and covers.

Info Plays
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Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Miami Dolphins +3
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Reasons why the Dolphins cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Favorites (TENNESSEE) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record. This is a 25-5 ATS System hitting 83.3% over the last 5 seasons. Over the last 3 years, this system has gone 13-3 as well.
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2.) Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC foes, while Tennessee is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record.
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3.) Tennessee has fought tough after their 0-6 start, but this team realizes that their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. Miami, on the other hand, sits at 7-6 with a great chance to make the postseason. They started the year 0-3 and could have packed it in, but instead they went on to go 7-3 over their last 10 games behind great play from QB Chad Henne and RB Ricky Williams. Not to mention their defense has clamped it down the last two weeks against both the Patriots and Jaguars, getting key stops when they needed to. Miami should not be catching points in this game, thus we'll take the field goal. Bet the Dolphins on the road.

Black Widow
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Arizona Cardinals -12
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Arizona would find it hard to get motivated to play the Detroit Lions most weeks, but that won't be the case this Sunday as they look to make amends from their embarrassing 9-24 road loss to the 49ers on Monday Night Football last week. In that game they were sloppy, turning the ball over 7 times. Arizona will be sharp in practice this week and learn from their mistakes, and they'll go into Detroit and put it on a Lions' team that is coming off a 3-48 loss at Baltimore last week. Detroit isn't competitive with QB Matthew Stafford watching from the sidelines, and Stafford is doubtful to play which leaves Daunte Culpepper to run the show. Bad new for Detroit. Culpepper is completing just 53% of his passes, averaging a mere 5.74 yards/attempt, and has thrown just 1 touchdown to 4 interceptions this season. The Lions have lost by double-digits in 3 straight games, and for the season they are getting outscored by 15.1 points/game. The Lions are just 3-12 ATS in their last 18 home games overall. Arizona 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. After playing a hard-nosed 49ers' defense that made nothing easy on the Cardinals, look for Arizona to be near-perfect offensively this week against a Lions' defense that is allowing 31.2 points/game this year. The Lions are just stumbling to the finish line, and Detroit is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Take Arizona and lay the points.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Green Bay Packers +1
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the Packers as I look for Aaron Rodgers to bounce back from a couple of sub-par performances and take advantage of a team "coming apart at the seams".
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Rodgers expects to be OK this week after he was involved in what appeared to be a harrowing incident early in the fourth quarter of the Packers' 21-14 win at Chicago on Sunday; WR Greg Jennings evidently is OK after he briefly left Sunday's game after taking a hit to a knee in the first quarter.
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Ryan Grant's explosive 62-yard TD run on Green Bay's first play from scrimmage had been a long time coming; look for Grant to build off that performance.
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Remember, not only are the Packers 5-0 SU their last five, they are also 4-0-1 ATS their last five overall and a superb 5-2 ATS their last seven on the road.
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On the other side of the field: The end of another successful era for the Pittsburgh Steelers is near as they enter their final three games of the year; the 2009 season, the one in which they vowed to prove their previous Super Bowl hangover would not affect them, has turned disastrous.
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They have lost five straight games, including three to some of the worst NFL teams, the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and now Cleveland Browns.
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It comes as no surprise then to learn that Pittsburgh is a woeful 1-4 ATS its last five overall and 2-4 ATS its last six at Heinz Field.
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Bottom line: The Packers are the hungrier team here and will look to punish the Steelers while they are down; look for GREEN BAY to improve to 5-1 ATS this season vs. teams with a losing record and for Pittsburgh to fall to 4-10 ATS overall this year.

Matt Fargo
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New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
PICK: New England Patriots -7
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I used the Patriots in this spot last week and they fell short as they won but failed to cover against the Panthers. We have now not seen a good New England effort in a month and I think we are about to see that breakout we have been waiting for. Facing the Bills could be just what the doctor ordered as the Patriots have defeated Buffalo the last 12 meetings including that crazy come-from-behind victory in Week One. It was definitely a lethargic effort by New England but this is still the team to beat the AFC East and despite all of the bad press, it is not playing bad. The Patriots have outgained seven of their last eight opponents and even though that has resulted in just a 5-3 record, two of those losses came by a single point. Hats go off to Buffalo players and coaches who have not shown a bit of quit even though the season was cashed in long ago. Mathematically, the Bills are not out of the playoffs but everything has to work in their favor and that just is not happening with seven teams in front of them vying for that second Wild Card position. They are coming off a win against the Chiefs on Sunday despite getting outgained, the sixth time in the last eight games that has happened. On the season, Buffalo is getting outgained by an average of 85.8 ypg which is the fifth most in all of the NFL. The only four teams that are worse are the Browns, Raiders, Chiefs and Lions who are a combined 11-41. New England meanwhile is outgaining opponents by 91.1 ypg which is the second most in the league behind the Packers. The whole Randy Moss saga that took place after the game last week against the Panthers only helps us this week. It made news everywhere that he ‘shut it down’ after a slow start to the game and you can pretty much guarantee he will be out to throw that back in everyone’s face after this week. The game against Carolina was his worst performance of the season as he had just 16 yards on one catch. He had only one catch in another game this season and followed that up next game with eight catches for 129 yards and three touchdowns which was Tom Brady’s record-breaking game against Tennessee. A win here keep the Patriots a game ahead of the Dolphins and Jets. They split the season series with both teams and New England needs to win to match Miami’s 4-2 record in the division because a loss means a 3-3 division record and the Dolphins would win the tiebreaker. The Patriots are 21-11 ATS in their 32 games under head coach Bill Belichick as road favorites of a touchdown or less. They are also 15-5 ATS in the 20 under when playing in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. The Bills are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win and they are just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record. 3* New England Patriots

Spartan
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CLE +2.5 vs KAN
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I well recall when teams dreaded venturing into the house of doom also known as Arrowhead Stadium. There was a time when that place literally rocked with rabid, sold out crowds doing the tomahawk chop.I've was personally in that chaos many times when I resided in Kansas City. My how times have changed and it is a cruel twist of fate to one of the more loyal fan bases in the NFL. This is quite possible the least talented Chiefs team is have seen in my lifetime and guys I recall the very first super bowl with the Packers & Chiefs. Now the Browns come to town and obviously they have no right to be sticking their noses up at anyone but they are feeling pretty good about themselves after a prime time victory over the hated Steelers. I predicted the Browns would prevail in that game and I am going right back to them here. Two primary reasons, first and foremost I truly feel the Browns defense will effectively shut down that dismal Chiefs offense. Secondly, as I stated prior to the Steelers game I feel Joshua Cribbs will play a key role in this game, either as a quarterback in the wild cat or on special teams. In my opinion Cribbs is far and away the least appreciated talent in the league. If you would feel better with some historical facts to support the wager I'll gladly oblige, the Browns are 4-0 against the number the last four times out and 6-1 ATS in the last seven squaring off against AFC opponents. Meanwhile the Chiefs, not surprisingly are a lousy 0-5-1 the last six performing in the role of favorite. I am suggesting a wager this Sunday on the Browns +2.5

Lenny Del Genio
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DEN / OAK UNDER 37
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The Raiders have caught three non-division foes by surprise this season, beating Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh outright. Two of those victories came with QB Bruce Gradkowski at the helm as the Toledo grad came in relief for the ineffective JaMarcus Russell, who when all is said and done could go down as the worst #1 overall choice in the history of the NFL Draft. However, Gradkowski went down in the Washington game last week and with Russell at the helm once again, the bottom once again dropped out in Oakland. Word is that the team is actually considering Charlie Fry to start at QB this week vs. Denver if Gradkowski can't go.
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Still Denver cannot be trusted laying this many points considering a 4-17 ATS home record. We see this game going very much like the Raiders Thanksgiving Day loss to the Cowboys where we also cashed the Under. Six of the last eight meetings between these teams in Denver have gone Under the total. In the Week 3 matchup in Oakland, a 23-3 Denver win, the Broncos held the Raiders to just 137 yards of total offense. Last week, after the team had to turn to Russell, the Oakland offense managed just three total yards on their final four drives, two of which ended on downs and another on an interception.
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The Raiders cannot run the ball. Last week was the fifth time this season they were held to less than 70 yards on the ground. They have scored 13 points or less an astounding nine times this season. Denver is far from a scoring machine either as they've scored 17 or less eight times. They'll win this game based on a defense that allows just 16.5 PPG at home where they've gone Under in all six games this season. Oakland is 8-1 Under when coming off an Over and 7-0 Under when coming off a double-digit home loss. Take Under Oakland/Denver.

Vegas Vic

EAGLES (-8) over 49ers
San Francisco got an early Christmas gift Monday night from Arizona. Actually, the 49ers got seven gifts. Maybe the Cardinals thought they were giving out Hanukkah presents. 'Zona fumbled seven times, lost five, and Kurt Warner threw two interceptions. That ain't gonna happen Sunday. Not against the most potent offense in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The Birds have put 79 points on the board against the Giants and Falcons, and there's no reason to expect anything less than 30-something Sunday. Donovan McNabb loves to play against the Niners. The last three times D-Mac has faced San Fran (42-3 win in 2005, 38-24 win in 2006, and a 40-26 win last season), he has posted ridiculous numbers. How about a passer rating of 121.9 with nine touchdowns and only one interception? Looking for another Double D (Donovan & DeSean) explosion.

BRONCOS (-14) over Raiders
Denver leads the AFC wild-card race at the moment, and will come up with a huge, best-bet effort against the hated Silver & Black. We were looking at Oakland after covering two of three, but when QB Bruce Gradkowski went down against the Redskins last week, we look no more. The Raiders will not turn to JaMarcus Russell, mainly because his last outing against the Broncos was a disaster. He was sacked three times, picked twice and came up on the short end of a 23-3 score. So, now Oakland gives the keys to Charlie Frye, who has not thrown a pass in the regular season since October 2008. Man, what a shot of confidence for that offense! Denver has won 11 of the last 14 against the Raiders, seven of the last nine at home, which is really no big surprise after looking at Oakland's pathetic 11-43 record on the road since 2003.

Cardinals (-12) over LIONS
The only number we know we will not see this week is seven stinkin' turnovers from Arizona. How about these numbers: The Cardinals have been a solid investment on the road this season, covering four of six, with one push. Not so much for Detroit at home. The Lions have covered only three of the last 15 in Motown, and with the worst defense in the league, by a mile (the only team to allow more than 400 points), 'Zona should win by at least two dozen.

SEAHAWKS (-6) over Buccaneers
Looking for a big bounce from Seattle after a lousy effort in a 34-7 loss at Houston Sunday. And the Seahawks have the perfect patsy in Tampa Bay. The Bucs are averaging 4 points per game the last two weeks, are working on an 0-5 streak on the road, and have covered only one of the last six against Seattle. Need more? The 'Hawks are covering at 75 percent rate (six of the last eight) in Coffee-town.

BILLS (+7) over Patriots
"Win one for Fewell" is the battle cry in Buffalo. Since taking over for Dick Jauron, Perry Fewell has guided the Buffs to a pair of wins in the last three games, while the Pats are 0-5 on the road this season in the U.S.

REDSKINS (+3) over Giants
Kinda like the roll that Washington is on, and not the roll New York is on. The Redskins are working on a fabulous 5-0 spread run, while the Giants have covered only one of the last eight. Also don't like the fact that New York's defense has become low-end Swiss cheese, allowing a staggering total of 126 points (31 points per game) in the four games since the bye week.

Falcons (+4) over JETS
Beating Carolina, Tampa Bay and Buffalo ain't gonna impress anyone, and neither will the New Yorkers' recent spread record at home, covering only three of the last nine.

STEELERS (-2) over Packers
Look for Pitt to bounce back after last week's embarrassment at Cleveland.

TITANS (-3) over Dolphins
If Vince Young gets upgraded from questionable to probable, we would upgrade this pick a few notches.

RAVENS (-11) over Bears
Would like to jump a double-digit 'dog, but Chicago is on an 0-6 spread run.

Browns (+2) over CHIEFS
Not too hard to peg this as our "Monopoly Money"-only game.

Texans (-10) over RAMS
Anyone care to guess who is gonna QB for St. Louis? Ever hear of Keith Null (five picks last week)?

Bengals (+7) over CHARGERS
A touchdown seems like a lot to give to a division leader, even though they will be playing with heavy hearts.

PANTHERS (+9) over Vikings
Since Minny has lost two of the last three on the road, we'll take a light position with Carolina.

Wunderdog Sports
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Under 39.5
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Josh Freeman surprised a few teams when he made his first two starts of the season. His team put up 61 points in those games. Then the film came out and defenses began to make the adjustments resulting in a complete stall of the Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs have managed just 33 points in their last four games (8.25 per game). If we remove those two initial Freeman starts from the equation, this team has averaged just 11.7 points per game in the other eleven games! It hasn't exactly been a banner year for the Seahawks’ offense either as they have had their own struggles. They have failed to top the 20-point mark in nine of their 13 games (69% of the time). The Bucs have improved on the defensive side of the ball. The y have faced some meancing offenses this season including Dallas, Philly, New England, Green Bay and New Orleans. Tampa allowed 33.6 points per game vs. these powerhouses. But, against more mediocre offenses including the Giants, Washington, Buffalo, Carolina, Miami, Atlanta and the Jets, Tampa Bay has given up a very respectable 23.5 points per game. Seattle's resume is similar. Versus high-powered offenses Indianapolis, Arizona, Dallas, Minnesota and Houston, they allowed 33.2 points per game. But against all others, they have allowed just just 14.5 points per game! So we offenses that average 14.6 and 19.2 points per game. And, we have defenses that have given up 23.5 and 14.5 per game vs. comparable offenses. The Bucs have played UNDER to a 50-22 mark the last 72 times following a game where they failed to top the 150-yard mark in passing. The history of these clubs shows that the UNDER is the way to go as their last six meetings resulted in UNDERs.

Craig Trapp
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Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Chicago Bears +11
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Last weekend Craig's free play was about the same underdog with CAROLINA winning ATS fairly easily. Same type of play here as CHI is not nearly as bad as their record looks. Last week CHI had a very good GB team on the ropes before losing late. The Bears could easily be a playoff team if Cutler could live up to expectations, but lately he has looked a little better. On the other side BALT is still living on the reputation of the last few years. The facts though is this defense is old and injured not a great comination. In years past this defense would create turnovers and score even at times. Now this team does get stops but they have not created the to's or defensive scores like years past. The offenses are about equal in this matchup both at times can get it done but more times than not leave their fans disappointed. This one is a lower scoring game and the Bears cover.

Ben Burns
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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
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The Broncos beat up on the Raiders, at Oakland, back in September. At the time, the Broncos were undefeated and playing their best football of the season. While Denver got off to a 6-0 start, Oakland got off to a 1-4 start.

However, since that time, the gap between these teams has narrowed. The Broncos have gone 2-5, both straight-up and against the number, their last seven games. The Raiders have gone 4-4 against the spread, winning three of those games outright.
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Off a double-digit loss and with only two wins in their last seven, now the Broncos are being asked to win by double-digits. Facing a revenge-minded divisional opponent, I feel that's asking too much. That's particularly true given that the Broncos have scored an average of only 17.2 points per game in their six home games.

While its always easy to pick on the Raiders, Ben notes that Oakland is a perfect 3-0 against the spread, the last three times that it was attempting to avenge an earlier loss.
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On the other hand, it's worth pointing out that the Broncos are an awful 3-12 at the betting window, the last 15 times that they faced a team with a losing record. With last week's loss, they're also a money-burning 2-7 against the spread, the past few years, when playing in the final four weeks of the regular season.
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The Raiders upset the Broncos here last season. Listed as significant underdogs, they won by a score of 31-10. Including that result, they're a perfect 3-0 against the spread their last three visits here. Consider grabbing all those points! Play Oakland

SPORTS WAGERS
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S. Mississippi –3½ over Mid Tennessee State
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The first ever meeting between these two teams will feature plenty of offense, as both teams racked up over 30 points a game during the regular season. The main difference between these two schools is that Southern Mississippi did it while playing in the strong Conference USA while Middle Tennessee State did it while playing in the worst conference in College Football. This isn’t to say that the Blue Raiders will have trouble scoring, but it’s important to recognize that Southern Mississippi will be the best team they have played since conference play started. The step up in competition from the dregs of the Sun Belt to the high-powered offense of Southern Mississippi will surely play a factor this Sunday. Consider that against horrific Memphis at home and Sun Belt champion Troy, Middle Tennessee State managed to score 31 and 7 points. That simply won’t win the game against a Southern Miss squad that put up 43 points against Houston, 44 against Tulsa and almost upset conference champion East Carolina in the season finale. Middle Tennessee State’s QB Dwight Dasher put up some ridiculous numbers throwing and running the football but one could make the case Martevious Young is just as good a quarterback at this point in the season. Young took over when Austin Davis went down and had a 13-1 touchdown to interception ratio while throwing for 1577 yards in seven games. Southern Mississippi lost the three games he played in by a combined 14 points. Both these teams will trade touchdowns and one of them may open up a significant lead but at the pace and efficiency they both play at the final score should be relatively close. Southern Mississippi played a much better schedule and won’t be surprised by the talent level of the Blue Raiders. They played the two toughest opponents on their schedule very close and even if the defense plays poorly they should be able to name the score on offense. Play: Southern Mississippi –3½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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PITTSBURGH –2 over Green Bay
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If you’re a regular reader of this section than you know an angle I love to use is buy low and sell high and this game fits perfectly. The Steelers have cost a lot of people money over the past few weeks and those that bet on them week after week probably can’t wait to bet against them here after that awful performance against the then 1-11 Brownies. The Steelers aren’t just coming off one bad performance either. They’re coming off back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Oakland, one as a 10-point favorite and the other as a 14½-point favorite. They also lost to the Chiefs and when you lose to Oakland, Kansas City and Cleveland in the span of a month, that’s about as low as you can go. Meanwhile, the Packers are gaining steam with five straight wins. They recently crushed the Ravens on a Monday Night Football game and last week they won in Chicago, 21-14 and that’s a very flattering score for the Bears. The Bears were dominated. So, the Packs stock is soaring, the Steelers stock is reeling and that has created a very beatable number here. The Steelers have also had 10 days to prepare and you know they’re absolutely steaming to get back out there and get this thing right-sided. Buy low and sell high. Play: Pittsburgh –2 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
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Cincinnati +7 over SAN DIEGO
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Sure, the tale of Chris Henry is a sad one but nobody forced him to go Indiana Jones on a moving vehicle. The guy was a loose cannon anyway and he hasn’t played in a month so while his death is a shocker for sure, it’s unlikely to affect the Bengals in a negative way. They’ll dedicate the game to him and likely play extremely well. Now that it’s out of the way, let’s move on to the game. The Bengals are dangerous as hell with a terrific defense and an efficient offense. They were buried in Minnesota last week but they’re still 9-4 and have only lost by more than the offered points here twice this season. They simply came out flat and it happens to every team over the course of a season. Now that the Bengals got that one out of its system, they’re a solid bet to bounce back in a big way. The Chargers have reeled off eight in a row and because of that, combined with the Bengals 20-point loss last week, the Chargers are overpriced here. Fact is, they’ve had a rather easy schedule, beating Kansas City, Oakland, a reeling Giants team, K.C. again, Cleveland, Denver minus Kyle Orton and last week a reeling Cowboy squad by the slimmest of margins and they were fortunate to get that win. So, while the W’s in the win column are impressive, the opposition was not and frankly, this edition of the Chargers does not impress me in the least. An efficient QB like Carson Palmer can do a lot of damage to this team and it says here the Chargers finally get exposed for being an average team, just like they were in the first five weeks of the season when they lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver and barely beat the Raiders. Play: Cincinnati +7 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
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KANSAS CITY –2 over Cleveland
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Well, this might not be the most exciting game on the board but a win with the Chiefs pays exactly the same as a win with the Saints. In fact, this one will draw less interest than Siegfried and Roy would have at a nanny convention. Nonetheless, this one has to mean a lot more to the Chiefs than it does to the Brownies. Cleveland is coming off that highly charged, emotional win over the Steelers and that was its signature win this season. Lost in that signature win is that Brady Quinn went 6-19 and looked like he usually does, which is confused. The Brownies had its glory game and now they’ll travel to play a team that would be absolutely roasted by the local fans and media should they lose another home game to a weak team. Incidentally, the Chiefs also beat the Steelers four weeks ago and subsequently lost its next game by 30 points. That win is a distant memory however, and the Chiefs need this one badly to avoid a flurry of scrutiny. The good news is that they’ll get one of its key offensive players back in Dwayne Bowe. RB Jamaal Charles is an absolute factor every time he touches the ball. The whole team is being challenged and frankly, they couldn’t have handpicked a riper opponent that’s coming off that Super Bowl like win over the hated Steelers. Play: Kansas City –2 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

RANDALL THE HANDLE
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Patriots @ Bills
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No more excuses. No more lofty expectations. This Patriots team is nothing more than mediocre these days.. Still, that won’t prevent other teams from gunning for them, especially these Bills after Buffalo let one slip away in season opener. New England has failed miserably on the road this season with just one victory in six tries, that one occurring in Tampa. The Patriots pass defence is weak and even non-passing teams have taken advantage. Buffalo can mix the pass and run enough to keep this one interesting and well within the touchdown being offered.TAKING: Buffalo +7 RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2 PINNACLE
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Buccaneers @ Seahawks
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Nothing really changes with the Seahawks. For years, they’ve been solid at home, brutal on the road. This season is no different. Seattle is 4-2 at home, outscoring its opponents 143-89. Outside the state of Washington, the ‘Hawks are a paltry 1-6 and have been outscored by an alarming 212-107. The Buccaneers don’t win anywhere with just one victory in 17 games, dating back to November of last year. There is no reason to anticipate a change here. Seattle does what it usually does by punching out a weakling.TAKING: Seattle –6½ RISKING: 2.02 units to win 2 PINNACLE
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Cardinals @ Lions
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Call us irresponsible. After all, upon watching the Cardinals dismal performance on Monday night and then asking them to travel and spot prohibitive points, we have to be considered careless. In reality, it’s just the opposite. Had Arizona manhandled the ordinary 49ers like many had assumed, this line may have been in the 14 range. Really, we’re getting a bargain. The Lions are dreadful. Their defence ranks dead last in the league while Detroit’s pass defence also ranks at the very bottom. After Arizona’s embarrassing effort, this is the perfect opponent to right the ship.TAKING: Arizona –12 RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2 PINNACLE
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THE REST
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Bears @ Ravens
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The Bears are playing like what they are alleged to do in the woods. That said, not willing to trust this Baltimore offence to clobber an opponent for the second straight week. Ravens still have several key guys on sidelines.TAKING: Chicago +10

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Falcons @ Jets
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Yes, Atlanta has taken a step back this season. Still, prefer battling Falcons to a Jets squad that can handle the pushover teams but has failed against most contenders. Mark Sanchez expected to return to pivot New York, another plus for our choice.TAKING: Jets -3½

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49ers @ Eagles
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Eagles glad to be home after having just one home game the past five weeks. Philly has climbed atop the NFC East and with Denver and Dallas on deck, this one becomes essential. San Fran’s offence will have difficult time keeping up.TAKING: Philadelphia –8 ½

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Packers @ Steelers
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With good reason, Steelers supporters are bailing quicker than Tigers Woods’ sponsors. However, this might be an overreaction as Pittsburgh’s season depends on this one and they’ve had 10 days to prepare.TAKING: Pittsburgh –2

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Dolphins @ Titans
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Have to take any points being offered in what figures to be a playoff type atmosphere as both need this one desperately. Miami run defence is a stellar unit that can slow down phenom RB Chris Johnson. TAKING: Miami +3

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Browns @ Chiefs
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Many will be high on Browns after they knocked off the Steelers but let’s not forget that the Chiefs managed to do the same. Dwayne Bowe returns to lineup for Kansas City and with Jamaal Charles running well, KC offers more than this visitor.TAKING: Kansas City –2

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Texans @ Rams
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Not fond of giving away abundance of points with erratic Texans but facing an already weak Rams squad that keeps losing starters, Houston becomes the prudent choice. Rams have yet to win at home.TAKING: Houston –11 ½

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Bengals @ Chargers
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Bengals were pounded by Vikings last week but Cincinnati’s defence is a formidable unit that is unlikely to get clobbered again. Cincy’s corners capable of slowing down Chargers potent passing game.TAKING: Cincinnati +7

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Raiders @ Broncos
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Looks like Charlie Frye will take the reins for the Raiders this week and while Frye is a career journeyman, he is a better alternative than JaMarcus Russell. Two touchdown spot is a bit steep in what figures to be low-scoring affair.TAKING: Oakland +14

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Vikings @ Panthers
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Panthers have covered five of past seven despite limited production from quarterback position. Minnesota is much more intimidating on its own turf and this will be only its second road game in past seven weeks.TAKING: Carolina +9

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Giants @ Redskins
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Redskins could be weary from heavy travel while the Giants have remained in the neighbourhood. G-men have struggled on special teams and pass defence recently but this foe does not provide much adversity in either area. TAKING: NY Giants –3

Tony Mathews
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Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Selection: Green Bay Packers +1
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The Steelers are coming into this game after a five game losing streak and there is no indication that that trend should break this week. Three of Pittsburgh’s losses came against the lowly Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns, with two of those defeats occurring at Heinz Field. While this week’s matchup is a ‘must win’ for Pittsburgh, so was last week’s game vs. the Browns as well as the must win against the Raiders the week before. The truth is that the Pittsburgh defense is without SS Troy Polamalu and has a struggling OL putting them on a downward slide. All potential success for the Steelers relies on the scrambling of Ben Roethlisberger and if he then fails to make big plays, there is really no back up plan. That is somewhat of a moot point however since Roethlisberger was sacked 8 times last week by a Browns defense that is absent of 5 starters.
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Green Bay is in far better form this week at 9-4 after defeating the Bears last weekend. Early season Offensive line problems have been corrected and they are coming off a 5 game winning streak. The Packers will present the best offense that the Steelers have dealt with in a long time. Expect the Pittsburgh defense to struggle terribly against Aaron Rogers and his crew.
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Take the Green Bay Packers +1