Brian Marshall
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Game: Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Chicago/Baltimore Over 40
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Last week Baltimore showed a sense of urgency in their matchup against Detroit and understandably so, since their playoff chances were on the table. The Lion defense struggled against Raven’s running back Ray Rice and we expect nothing more from the Chicago defense who has been struggling likewise.
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The Raven defense is not the best either; despite holding Detroit to just three points last week, the Baltimore defense is still overrated. Even worse for the Baltimore defense is the fact that key playmakers FS Ed Reed and OLB Terrell Suggs are injured. With that said Chicago shouldn’t have much trouble connecting and moving the ball this week.
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At home, Baltimore has averaged 33 points per game which makes this a reasonable line as we expect several turnovers and abundant clock stoppage.
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Both the Bears and the Ravens should be successful on offense and we expect that the game will go over 40 points combined.
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Take the Chicago Bears/Baltimore Ravens Over 40
Bob Wingerter
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Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -1
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Don't let a surprising win over a name team blind you to the reality that the Browns are one of the worst clubs the NFL has seen this decade. There is little chance of Cleveland playing with as much fire, or playing as well, in Kansas City as they did at home last Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have lots of problems too, but losing for a third consecutive week at home, and to a two-win Browns team, would be an ultimate indignity that you can expect the team to work hard to avoid. Look for Cassel to bounce back against a Browns squad that doesn't cause turnovers, for Charles to get his yards as well, and for Kansas City to look like an NFL team again, if only for one week.
Teddy Covers
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San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
PICK: San Francisco 49ers +9
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This is no longer a classic case of a West Coast team travelling East for an early start game now that weather conditions have forced the NFL to move the kickoff back to 4:15 local time on Sunday. And without the stigma of that awful 10 AM Pacific Time start, the 49ers are one West Coast team poised to hang around for a long, long time in Philly on Sunday.
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San Fran has played great on the road all year long, despite their 1-5 SU record on the highway. The 49ers beat Arizona back in Week 1, but they’ve lost at Green Bay, Indy, Houston, Minnesota and Seattle – a murderer’s row of a road schedule. Every one of those defeats came in competitive fashion – the largest margin of victory was six points. Minnesota needed a Hail Mary miracle on the final play of the game to beat them; San Fran showed character and execution rallying from big deficits to make things interesting late at both Green Bay and Houston. This is not a team to fear supporting on the road.
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After their win over Arizona on Monday Night Football, the 49ers are still very much thinking ‘playoffs’, particularly with the Cowboys suffering through another December meltdown. If Dallas continues to falter, the last Wild Card spot in the NFC is wide open. The 49ers close out the season with games against the Lions and Rams. If they can somehow steal a victory here, the 49ers have a realistic shot at reaching the postseason and they know it. This is no flat spot coming off a Monday Night victory; rather, it’s a hungry, ascending team poised to make a statement against another quality foe.
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Philadelphia’s defense gave up more than 500 yards to the Giants last week, a banged up unit that has struggled repeatedly against balanced attacks like that of the 49ers. Prior to that game, we saw the Eagles struggle to stop the Redskins and Bears within the last month, winning both of those games against sub .500 opposition by four points or less. Philly is also a team that has a strong tendency to come out flat every month or so – look no further than sluggish games against Oakland in October and Dallas in November as two clear recent examples. Coming off a huge divisional win, don’t expect the Eagles ‘A’ game here.
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With cold, snowy weather expected, the Eagles big play passing offense is likely to be rather limited, creating a big advantage for Frank Gore and the 49ers running game; the superior rushing attack in poor weather conditions. The Niners may not be able to pull off the outright upset, but they’re good enough and match up well enough to keep this game within a touchdown. 2* Take San Francisco.
Marc Lawrence
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Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
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The 6-7 Titans will certainly miss the playoffs with another loss and the home faithful are probably a little restless awaiting the status of QB Vince Young. And why shouldn?t they be as the Titans are 0-6 SU and ATS when Kerry Collins has been at the controls this season. The Fish have no such QB woes as Chad Henne has won seven of his 10 starts since replacing injured Chad Pennington. After a 0-3 start, the defending AFC champs find themselves on a 7-3 run and in the thick of the playoff hunt, just one game behind division-leading New England. The Dolphins still have two more games before the calendar hits January and that?s good news for Miami backers as HC Tony Sparano has yet to lose (6-0 SU) in the month of December, including 4-0 SU on the road. The Dolphins? headman is also 7-1 ATS away off a SU win. We?re big fans of Jeff Fisher but when it comes to a road game in December we have to side with Sparano.
Jack Clayton
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Falcons at Jets
Pick: Under
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Atlanta is going with a backup QB, Mark Sanchez is playing like a backup QB (and he's a rookie), plus Sanchez returns after missing time with an injury. The Jets have a fierce defense and a conservative, run-oriented style, plus the weather is cold and windy. Play the Jets/Falcons under the total.
SPORTS ADVISORS
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NFL
Miami (7-6 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (6-7 SU and ATS)
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Two teams still in the AFC playoff hunt square off when the resurgent Titans play host to the Dolphins at LP Field.
Tennessee hammered St. Louis 47-7 Sunday as an overwhelming 13½-point favorite for its sixth victory in the last seven games (5-2 ATS), after stumbling to an 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) start in its first six games. The Titans are riding the NFL’s second-best rushing attack (165.3 ypg), paced by star RB Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 1,626 yards (6.0 ypc) and also has 11 TDs. Against the Rams, Johnson ran for 117 yards and two TDs, and added four catches for 69 yards and another score.
QB Vince Young (hamstring) was hurt against St. Louis, and Kerry Collins (11 of 19, 154 yards) finished strong. Young is expected to start today.
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Miami edged Jacksonville 14-10 last week as a three-point road underdog for its second consecutive SU and ATS win, and is now just a game behind New England in the AFC East. The Dolphins, despite losing RB Ronnie Brown weeks ago, have the league’s third-best running game (150.1 ypg) and they are sixth in time of possession (32:31 per game), which has helped them overcome a minus-5 turnover margin (24th).
Miami has won the last two meetings SU in this rivalry, but Tennessee has covered in three of the last four clashes (2-2 SU). Most recently, the Dolphins won 13-10 at home in September 2006, but the Titans cashed as a 10½-point underdog. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests.
Along with their current 5-2 ATS run, the Titans are on a 14-6 ATS roll coming off a SU win, but they are also just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against winning teams. The Dolphins are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 against losing teams, though they are on ATS surges of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in December, 6-1 against the AFC, 4-1 on the highway and 9-1 in roadies following a SU win.
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Tennessee is on “under” streaks of 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2 coming off a SU win, and the under for Miami is on rolls of 5-1 in December, 9-3 in roadies and 19-7 following a Dolphins SU win. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
New England (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at Buffalo (5-8, 7-6 ATS)
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The Patriots, clinging to a one-game lead in the AFC East, travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium for a meeting with the division rival Bills.
New England fended off Carolina 20-10 last week, but fell short of covering as a hefty 12½-point home chalk for its third consecutive ATS setback. The Pats ended a two-game SU skid, but they aren’t putting up points the way they did through the first 10 games of the year. While still averaging 26.8 ppg (sixth), New England has scored 21 or less in each of its last three games, after scoring 25 or more in eight of its first 10 outings.
Buffalo has covered in three of its four games under interim coach Perry Fewell, including Sunday’s 16-10 victory as a one-point favorite at Kansas City. The Bills have been much more competitive the last four weeks, winning twice and losing the other two by a combined total of nine points. The held all four opponents to 19 points or less – key for a team that still averages a meager 16.5 ppg (26th).
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New England has owned this rivalry in recent years, winning the last 12 in a row (9-3 ATS), though the Pats had to scramble to pull out a 25-24 victory in Week 1. Buffalo easily cashed as a 13-point road ‘dog, ending a 5-0 ATS roll by New England in this series. The road team has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests, and the Patriots have covered on each of their last five trips to Ralph Wilson.
The Patriots are in ATS ruts of 2-4 overall, 1-4 in the division and 2-4 on the road, but they are on an 18-8 ATS run as a road chalk. The Bills, despite their recent uptick, still shoulder negative ATS streaks of 2-9 at home, 1-6 as a home pup, 1-7 after a SU win and 4-10 against winning teams.
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The under for New England is on tears of 3-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 against losing teams, 6-1 on the highway and 5-0 with the Pats a road chalk. Likewise, Buffalo is on “under” streaks of 7-2 overall, 7-0 after a SU win, 5-0 against winning teams, 4-1 at home and 4-1 as a home ‘dog. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has fallen short of the posted price in 16 of the last 21 meetings overall and eight of the last 11 matchups in Buffalo.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
Arizona (8-5 SU and ATS) at Detroit (2-11, 3-9-1 ATS)
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The defending NFC champion Cardinals, who have hit a couple bumps in recent weeks, hope to get back on track with a trip to Ford Field to face the lowly Lions.
Arizona was in a giving mood Monday night at San Francisco, turning over the ball a whopping seven times – five in the first half alone – in a 24-9 loss as a four-point chalk. QB Kurt Warner had two INTs and a lost fumble in the setback, the Cardinals’ second in the last three weeks (2-1 ATS). Arizona still fields the league’s No. 7 passing game (258.6 ypg), but with a minus-5 turnover margin against the Niners, it stands at minus-8 for the year (27th).
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Detroit got blasted by Baltimore 48-3 as a heavy 14-point road underdog Sunday, losing for the third straight week and failing to cash for the seventh time in the last eight weeks (1-6-1 ATS). The Lions are among the league’s worst in numerous key categories, including total offense (297.2 ypg, 26th), scoring (16.1 ppg, 27th) and turnover margin (minus-11, 31st). Defensively, Detroit is at the bottom of the league in yards allowed (400.5 ypg) and points allowed (31.2 ppg).
Rookie QB Matthew Stafford (shoulder) is highly doubtful, meaning Daunte Culpepper will likely start for the second straight week.
Arizona has won and covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry, after a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Detroit, with the home team cashing in all five games. In fact, the host is on an 8-0 SU and ATS tear, the favorite is on a 6-0 ATS run, and the Cards are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests. Most recently, Arizona won 31-21 laying 2½ points at home in November 2007, giving the SU winner a 9-0 ATS mark in the last nine meetings.
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The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts as a favorite, but they are on spread-covering streaks of 13-5 overall, 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-2 on the road and 9-4 against the NFC. On the flip side, the Lions are 3-34 SU and 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 games, dating to mid-2007, and they are on additional pointspread purges of 1-6-1 overall, 1-5-1 after a SU loss, 3-12 at Ford Field, 3-9 as a home ‘dog and 7-19-1 in conference play.
The under is on runs of 4-0 for Arizona, 5-1 for the Cards on the road, 5-0 with the Redbirds a road chalk, 6-2 in Detroit’s last eight home games and 5-1 with the Lions a home pup. However, the over is on tears for Arizona of 14-4 in December and 37-17 against losing teams, and the over for Detroit is on stretches of 10-3 in December and 16-6 with the Lions getting more than 10 points.
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Finally, the total has sailed over the posted price in seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
San Francisco (6-7, 8-3-2 ATS) at Philadelphia (9-4, 8-5 ATS)
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The Eagles, who have surged into the lead in the NFC East, go after their fifth consecutive win when they take on the 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia outlasted the Giants 45-38 Sunday night as a one-point road chalk, winning for the fourth straight week while going 3-1 ATS in that stretch. The Eagles have been on a scoring binge the past several weeks, putting up 23 points or more in seven of their last eight games and twice reaching at least 40 points, and they now stand third in the league at 28.6 ppg. Philly has also feasted on turnovers, posting a plus-15 margin (third).
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San Francisco forced seven turnovers in Monday’s 24-9 home victory over Arizona as a four-point pup. The Niners, who remain barely alive in the playoff hunt, have alternated SU wins and losses over the past six weeks and are just 3-6 SU (4-3-2 ATS) in their last nine, after starting out 3-1 SU and ATS. San Francisco is 27th in total offense (288.6 ypg) and 18th in scoring (20.7 ppg), but the defense is yielding just 18.6 ppg (eighth).
These teams met last year in October, with Philly rolling 40-26 as a 4½-point road underdog for its third straight win and cover in this rivalry. All three wins have come by at least 14 points, including a 42-3 beatdown as a 13½-point chalk in September 2005, the last time these clubs met in Philadelphia. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, as is the road team, and the favorite is on a 6-2 ATS run. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings.
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The Eagles are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 5-1 in December, 7-3 as a chalk, 5-2 as a home favorite, 4-1 laying 3½ to 10 points and 6-2 against NFC opposition. Similarly, the 49ers are on spread-covering surges of 3-1-1 overall, 8-1-2 as an underdog, 5-0-2 as a road pup and 8-1-2 against winning teams, though Mike Singletary’s squad is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS win.
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The over for Philadelphia is on hot streaks of 10-4 overall, 8-1-1 at home, 6-1-1 with the Eagles a home favorite and 8-3 within the NFC, and the total has gone high in five straight meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, the under for San Francisco is on upticks of 4-1 overall and 6-1 in December.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta (6-7, 8-5 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (7-6 SU and ATS)
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The Jets, now in contention for a wild-card berth and just a game out in the AFC East, look to improve their playoff prospects at the Meadowlands against the Falcons, who are in desperation-win mode.
New York, with backup QB Kellen Clemens at the helm, drubbed hapless Tampa Bay 26-3 as a 3½-point road favorite last Sunday for its third straight win and cover, which comes on the heels of a near season-killing 1-6 SU and ATS freefall. The Jets’ defense has tightened up during its three-game run, allowing a total of just 22 points, and New York is now No. 1 in scoring defense at 16.2 ppg. Plus, the Jets are No. 1 in rushing offense (169.1 ypg).
Rookie starter Mark Sanchez (knee) practiced this week and is slated to start.
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Atlanta is on an untimely 1-4 SU skid (2-3 ATS), losing its last two games, including a 26-23 home setback to unbeaten New Orleans last Sunday, though it rallied from a 14-point second-half deficit to cash as a 10-point pup. The Falcons are averaging 23.2 ppg (12th), but they are giving up slightly more than that at 23.5 ppg (23rd), while also allowing 375.7 ypg (29th).
Chris Redman has started the past two games at QB for Atlanta, with Matt Ryan battling a turf toe injury. Ryan is listed as questionable.
These squads have met just once this decade, with Atlanta winning 27-14 as an eight-point home favorite in October 2005.
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The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven December outings, but they are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 against losing teams, 8-3 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 8-4 as a non-division home chalk. The Falcons are on ATS upturns of 12-2 following a SU loss, 10-3 after a division loss and 5-2 against winning teams.
New York is on “under” streaks of 3-0-1 overall, 12-2 in December, 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 after a spread-cover, and the under has hit in four of Atlanta’s last five December starts. However, the over for the Falcons is on runs of 5-0 on the highway and 13-5 following a SU loss.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Chicago (5-8, 4-9 ATS) at Baltimore (7-6 SU and ATS)
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The Ravens, still clinging to playoff hopes in the AFC, step out of the conference to take on the Bears at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore destroyed Detroit 48-3 last week as a 14-point home favorite to halt a three-game ATS skid (1-2 SU), though its streak of alternating SU wins and losses is now at eight games. Sunday’s outburst marked the first time in six games that the Ravens scored more than 20 points. Baltimore is allowing 305.9 ypg (eighth) and just 16.8 ppg (fourth), while the offense is averaging 355.4 ypg (12th) and 24.5 ppg (ninth).
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Chicago is coming off a 21-14 home loss to Green Bay as a four-point ‘dog, failing to cash for the sixth consecutive week while losing SU for the fifth time in that stretch. The Bears have scored more than 21 points just once in their last nine games, notching 17 points or less in six of those contest, as their season average has fallen to 19 ppg (22nd). QB Jay Cutler threw two more INTs against the Packers, giving him a league-worst 22 on the year (against 19 TDs).
Chicago and Baltimore have met just three times in the past 11 seasons, with the Bears going 2-1 SU and ATS, and the home team winning and cashing each time. Most recently, Chicago earned a 10-6 decision as a two-point chalk in October 2005.
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The Ravens have failed to cover in their last four games coming off a SU win, but they are otherwise on ATS rolls of 10-0 against losing teams, 12-4 giving points, 11-5 at M&T, 10-2 as a home chalk of more than 10 and 13-4 hosting NFC teams. The Bears, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last four catching more than 10 points, though along with their current 0-6 ATS dive, they are in pointspread funks of 0-4 on the highway, 1-10 as a ‘dog and 5-15-2 against winning teams. Chicago is also on a 6-12-1 ATS plunge in non-conference roadies.
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The under for Baltimore is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 7-3 at home and 9-3 with the Ravens favored, but the over is 8-3 in Baltimore’s last 11 against losing teams. The under for the Bears is on sprees of 5-0 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 6-0 after a non-cover, 11-4 in roadies and 38-17-2 with Chicago a road pup. Also, the last three meetings in this rivalry all went low, with the teams combining for no more than 27 points in each game.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and UNDER
Cleveland (2-11, 7-6 ATS) at Kansas City (3-10, 5-8 ATS)
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Two teams going nowhere fast square off when the Browns travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Chiefs.
Cleveland notched a rare win, and in upset fashion, in the Thursday game last week, dumping defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 13-6 as a hefty 9½-point home ‘dog. That halted a seven-game losing streak for the Browns, who also covered for the fourth week in a row. Cleveland has scored 20 points or less in 11 of 13 games, getting held to single digits seven times, and is averaging just 12.2 ppg (30th), while giving up nearly twice that (24.2 ppg, 25th) and allowing 386.2 ypg (31st).
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Kansas City fell to Buffalo 16-10 as a one-point home pup and is now on a three-game SU and ATS skid, with the last two losses coming at Arrowhead. Like the Browns, the Chiefs are among the lowest-scoring teams in the league, averaging 15.8 ppg (28th), and they’ve put up 16 points or less nine times this year, including in four of their last five games. K.C.’s defense has also been porous, allowing 385.2 ypg (30th) and 26.3 ppg (29th).
Kansas City is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Cleveland, though the Browns most recently took a 31-28 overtime win as a 4½-point home ‘dog in December 2006. The SU winner covered in all three games.
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Despite their dismal SU mark, the Browns actually sport a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 4-0 as a pup (all during their current 4-0 ATS run), 6-1 against the AFC, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 on the road and 9-4 against losing teams. The Chiefs are on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 5-15 at Arrowhead, 0-5-1 laying points, 0-4 in December and 3-8 against AFC foes, and they are also in an 0-5 SU and ATS rut as a chalk.
Cleveland is on “under” tears of 5-2 overall, 8-1 against losing teams, 10-2-1 in December, 6-2-1 on the highway and 8-3 against the AFC, and the under is 10-2-1 in Kansas City’s last 13 games against losing teams. The over for K.C. is on stretches of 9-3-2 at home and 4-1-1 following a non-cover.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Houston (6-7, 6-6-1 ATS) at St. Louis (1-12, 6-7 ATS)
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The Texans, still harboring very slim playoff hopes, head to the Edward Jones Dome for a non-conference contest with the ragged Rams.
Houston rolled Seattle 34-7 as a seven-point home chalk last week, halting a likely season-killing 0-4 SU skid (1-3 ATS) in which the Texans scored 18 points or less three times. Behind QB Matt Schaub, Houston continues to field one of the league’s top passing attacks, averaging 285.5 ypg (fourth), and Gary Kubiak’s troops are putting up 23.9 ppg (10th).
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St. Louis’ dismal season continued to drag on last Sunday in a 47-7 beatdown at the hands of Tennessee, with the Rams falling way short as a 13½-point road pup. Steve Spagnuolo’s squad has lost five straight games (3-2 ATS) and has scored 17 points or less in the last four, and the Rams have been held to single digits six times this year. Not surprisingly, they average a league-worst 11.2 ppg, and they have the second-worst scoring defense (27.8 ppg).
St. Louis will likely be without its top two quarterbacks once again, as Marc Bulger remains out and Kyle Boller is questionable, meaning Keith Null will likely start for the second straight week.
These teams have met just once before in regular-season play, with St. Louis notching a 33-27 overtime win as a 3½-point road favorite in November 2005.
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The Texans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven outings following a spread-cover, though they are also on ATS surges of 6-2 in December, 7-3 in roadies and 6-3 on the highway against losing teams. The Rams are a putrid 1-22 SU (10-13 ATS) in their last 23 games, and they are on spread-covering skids of 13-28 after a SU loss, 8-19 at the home dome and 1-5 hosting the AFC, yet they are also on a pair of 5-2 ATS runs – against losing teams and coming off a non-cover.
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The under for Houston is on rolls of 5-1 overall, 5-0 on the highway, 5-0 against losing teams, 6-1 in December, 9-2 after a spread-cover and 8-2 after a SU win. Conversely, the over for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1 at home and 11-5-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Cincinnati (9-4, 6-7 ATS) at San Diego (10-3, 7-6 ATS)
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The red-hot Chargers aim to stay on track for a first-round playoff bye when they take the field at Qualcomm Stadium against the Bengals, who are dealing with the stunning death of wideout Chris Henry.
San Diego dropped Dallas 20-17 as a 3½-point road underdog last Sunday for its eighth consecutive victory (6-2 ATS), putting the Chargers one game ahead of Cincy for the AFC’s No. 2 seed. The Bolts’ running game continues to lag at 87.5 ypg (30th), despite the presence of LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. However, QB Philip Rivers has the passing game averaging 266.8 ypg (fifth), and San Diego is scoring 27.8 ppg (fifth).
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Cincinnati couldn’t keep up with Minnesota in a 30-10 setback as a six-point road pup last week, ending a modest two-game SU upswing while failing to cover for the fourth straight week. The Bengals have netted 17 points or less in five of their last six games, though they’ve managed to go 4-2 SU (2-4 ATS) in that span. Cincy has had to rely on its defense, which second in the league in points allowed (16.7) and fifth in yards allowed (295.5 ypg)
The Bengals got the news Thursday that Henry – already on injured reserve due to a broken arm – had died from injuries suffered from falling out of the back of a pickup truck.
San Diego is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five clashes with Cincinnati, including a 49-41 shootout win as a one-point road pup in October 2006. The visitor is also 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, and the SU winner has cashed in 10 straight meetings dating to 1990.
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The Chargers sport nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 5-1 overall (all after a SU win), 4-0 against winning teams, 15-7 at home and 9-2 in December. In fact, the Bolts haven’t lost a December game since the final week of the 2005 regular season, going 16-0 SU and 11-5 ATS in that stretch.
The Bengals, despite their current 0-4 ATS slide, are on ATS upswings of 8-1 as a pup, 4-1 as a road pup and 6-1 against winning teams. Also, the underdog has covered in 12 of Cincy’s 13 games this year, with the lone exception being last week.
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San Diego is on “over” runs of 5-1-1 in December, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 8-3-2 with the Chargers a chalk and 7-3-1 against AFC opponents, and the over is also 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry. On the flip side, Cincinnati is on “under” rolls of 5-1 overall, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 13-3 in December, 4-1 against winning teams and 18-7-1 in conference action.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Oakland (4-9, 6-7 ATS) at Denver (8-5 SU and ATS)
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The Broncos look to remain on track for an AFC wild-card berth when they return from a two-game road swing to face the Raiders at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver rallied from a 21-0 deficit at unbeaten Indianapolis last week, pulling within 21-16 in the fourth quarter before ultimately losing 28-16 as a 6½-point underdog, ending a two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Broncos have lacked scoring punch much of the year, averaging just 19.7 ppg (20th). However, their defense has been even stingier, giving up just 17.7 ppg (fourth) and 290.7 ypg (third).
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A week after pulling off a shocking upset at Pittsburgh as a 15-point underdog, Oakland came home and got punished by Washington 34-13 as a one-point pup and has now alternated SU wins and losses over its last five games, and ATS wins and losses over its last nine starts. The Raiders’ scoring woes are much worse than Denver’s, as they’ve averaged just 11.9 ppg, second-worst in the league. Oakland has scored 16 points or less 10 times, and the defense is allowing 24.3 ppg (26th).
QB Bruce Gradkowski, who had replaced ineffective starter JaMarcus Russell several weeks ago, injured his knee against Washington and has been ruled out today. The Raiders have decided to bypass Russell, who replaced Gradkowski in the second half last week, and will go with veteran Charlie Frey under center.
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Denver rolled to a 23-3 win as a one-point chalk at Oakland on Sept. 27, giving these long-time AFC West rivals 2-2 SU and ATS marks in their last four clashes. The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings (2-5 SU), all from the underdog role, and they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Invesco. In fact, the visitor has cashed in four of the last five overall, as well.
The Broncos are on a bundle of spread-covering freefalls, including 2-5 overall, 1-5 in December, 7-21-1 as a favorite, 5-15-1 against losing teams, 2-9-1 as a double-digit chalk and 2-8 in home division games. That said, the SU winner is a perfect 13-0 ATS for Denver this season and has cashed in 16 straight overall for the Broncos.
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The Raiders are on ATS upswings of 4-0 after a non-cover 4-1 coming off a SU loss and 5-2 catching double digits, but they are just 17-38 ATS in their last 55 December contests.
The under for Denver is on tears of 9-4 overall, 11-1 at Invesco, 6-1 with the Broncos a home chalk and 6-0 with the Broncos laying more than 10 points, though the over has hit in 12 of Denver’s last 17 AFC West contests. Oakland is on “under” runs of 20-8-1 in the AFC West, 12-5-1 after a SU loss and 41-18-2 against winning teams, but the over is 6-1-1 in the Raiders’ last eight in December.
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Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 11 of the last 16 meetings overall and six of the last eight in Denver.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
Green Bay (9-4, 8-4-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-7, 4-9 ATS)
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The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, mired in a five-game losing skid, find themselves on the brink of missing the postseason when they meet the Packers in a non-conference clash at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh was dealt a shocking 13-6 loss at Cleveland in the Thursday game last week, falling as a 9½-point chalk in dropping to 1-4 ATS during its five-game SU losing streak. After five straight weeks of scoring 27 points or more – all in victories – the Steelers haven’t netted more than 24 points during the five-game slide, including three efforts of 17 or less. Pittsburgh is averaging 362.7 ypg (ninth), but that’s only translating into 21.4 ppg (16th).
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On the bright side, the Steelers are holding opponents to 18.8 ppg (11th) and 294.1 ypg (fourth), with the league’s No. 1 defense against the run (84.9 ypg).
Since suffering an upset loss at dismal Tampa Bay, Green Bay has peeled off five straight victories (4-0-1 ATS), including a 21-14 win at Chicago last week as a four-point road favorite. The Packers, currently holding the fifth seed in the NFC playoff picture, average 374.4 ypg and 26.5 ppg, both good for seventh in the league. Perhaps just as important, Green Bay boasts a league-leading plus-18 turnover margin.
These two renowned franchises have met just twice in the previous 11 seasons, with Pittsburgh going 2-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Steelers won 20-10 giving three points on the road in November 2005.
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Along with their current 1-4 ATS skid, the Steelers are in ATS ruts of 3-9 as a chalk (0-4 last four) and 1-11 giving three points or less at home, though they still sport a 9-3 ATS mark in their last dozen games against winning teams. The Packers are on several ATS tears, including 4-0-1 overall, 5-1-1 against losing teams, 6-2 as a pup, 10-4-1 as a road ‘dog, 18-7-1 in their last 26 roadies and 8-4-1 in non-conference road affairs.
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Pittsburgh is on “over” surges of 49-22-2 at home, 9-1 laying up to three points at Heinz and 5-1 coming off a SU loss, and the over for Green Bay is on streaks of 22-7 after a spread-cover, 19-8 after a SU win and 6-2-1 with the Pack a road pup. However, the under has hit in four of Green Bay’s last five overall and five of its last six in December.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay (1-12, 4-9 ATS) at Seattle (5-8 SU and ATS)
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Two teams playing out the string get together when the hapless Buccaneers make the cross-country trek to face the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Tampa Bay got crushed by the Jets last week 26-3, falling way short as a 3½-point home ‘dog and losing SU for the fifth straight time (2-3 ATS). First-year coach Raheem Morris’ troops have been bottom feeders on both sides of the ball, averaging 278.2 ypg (28th) and 14.6 ppg (29th), while giving up 361.5 ypg (26th) and 27.4 ppg (30th). Over the past 11 games, the Bucs have netted 17 points or less eight times, including scoring in single digits in three of their last four games.
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Seattle had its two-game SU and ATS win streak halted in blowout fashion Sunday, losing to Houston 34-7 as a seven-point road pup. The Seahawks, with Jim Mora in his first year at the helm, average 314.5 ypg (23rd) and 19.2 ppg (21st), while allowing 357.2 ypg and 23.2 ppg, rating 22nd in both categories.
Seattle is on a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) in this rivalry, most recently losing 20-10 in October 2008, but narrowly covering as a hefty 10½-point road pup. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
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The Buccaneers are 1-16 SU (5-12 ATS) in their last 17 regular-season outings, and they are on further ATS dives of 4-11 overall, 0-4 in December, 3-11 after a SU loss, 3-7 after a non-cover and 4-9 as an underdog. Conversely, the Seahawks are on ATS surges of 6-2-1 at Qwest, 5-1 laying points, 10-3 as a home chalk, 5-1 against losing teams and 9-4 in December.
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The under for Tampa Bay is on rolls of 4-0 overall (all as a pup) and 5-2 after an ATS setback, and the under is 8-3-1 in Seattle’s last dozen at home. Plus, the total has stayed low in the last six meetings in this rivalry. However, the over is 8-3 in the Bucs’ last eight December games and is on a 6-2-2 run for the Seahawks against losing teams.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Minnesota (11-2, 8-4-1 ATS) at Carolina (5-8, 6-7 ATS)
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The Vikings, looking to clinch the NFC North and perhaps lock down the No. 2 playoff seed, head to Bank of America Stadium for a prime-time meeting with the Panthers.
Minnesota rolled past Cincinnati 30-10 Sunday as a hefty 12½-point chalk, bouncing back from a SU and ATS loss at Arizona while moving to 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in its last six outings. Behind 40-year-old Brett Favre, the Vikings sport the NFL’s sixth-best total offense (379 ypg) and rank No. 2 in scoring (29.9 ppg), trailing only the high-octane Saints (35.8 ppg). The defense is nearly as solid, allowing 303.6 ypg (sixth) and 18.7 ppg (ninth), and Minnesota has been a nightmare for opposing QBs this year, posting a league-leading 41 sacks.
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Carolina fell to New England 20-10 last week, but got the money as an overwhelming 12½-point road underdog for its second straight spread-cover, despite losing SU for the third time in the last four games. The Panthers have scored 17 points or less in all four of those contests – including two at home – and are averaging a meager 17.3 ppg for the season (25th), while giving up 21.7 ppg (19th).
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QB Jake Delhomme (broken finger) will sit for a third straight week, with Matt Moore again getting the start.
Minnesota has won and covered the last two in this rivalry, after a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Carolina. Last year, the Vikes won 20-10 as a 3½-point home favorite in September. The favorite and the home team are on identical 5-2 ATS rolls in the last seven series clashes.
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The Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last nine December contests and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 starts following an ATS victory, but they also carry positive ATS streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 against losing teams, 5-1-1 within the NFC and 5-2 on the highway. The Panthers are on pointspread upswings of 5-2 overall, 5-0 in NFC action, 4-0 against winning teams, 8-1 in December and 4-1 getting points, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings. In addition, Minnesota is on “under” tears of 5-0 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 4-0 in December, 5-1 against losing teams and 7-2-1 as a road chalk. Likewise, Carolina carries “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 at home and 5-1 coming off a spread-cover, though the over is 12-5 in the Panthers’ last 17 outings against NFC opponents.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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NEW ORLEANS BOWL
(at New Orleans)
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Middle Tennessee St. (9-3 SU and ATS) vs. Southern Miss (7-5, 6-5 ATS)
Middle Tennessee State tries to finish its best season since joining the Football Bowl Subdivision as it goes after a seventh straight victory when it battles Southern Mississippi in the Superdome.
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The Blue Raiders started 3-3 SU and ATS but finished with six straight wins SU and ATS to earn a second-place finish in the Sun Belt Conference. They’ve scored 27 points or more in every contest during their six-game winning streak – which occurred entirely within the Sun Belt Conference – and didn’t allow an opponent more than 24 in any of those outings. A victory today would give the Raiders their first 10-win season.
Southern Mississippi opened the season with three straight home wins (1-2 ATS), including non-conference victories over Central Florida and Virginia. The Golden Eagles then lost three straight (1-2 ATS) before winning four of six (5-1 ATS) to ensuring their 16th consecutive winning season. However, Southern Miss fell at East Carolina 25-20 as a six-point underdog in the regular-season finale on Nov. 28, costing the Eagles a shot at the league championship game and resulting in a third-place finish in Conference-USA’s East Division.
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The Blue Raiders’ only bowl appearance came in the 2006 Motor City Bowl when they lost 31-14 to Central Michigan, coming up well short as 8½-point underdogs. Southern Miss won a thriller in the New Orleans’ Bowl Bow last year, edging Troy 30-27 in overtime and cashing as a 4½-point underdog. This is the Golden Eagles’ fourth appearance in the New Orleans Bowl since 2004 where they are a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS). Additionally, Southern Miss has gone bowling 12 of the last 13 seasons, including the last eight in a row.
Middle Tennessee State is on ATS runs of 8-3 in non-conference games, 18-7-1 after a spread-cover, 4-0 against C-USA teams and 18-7-1 after a straight-up win. Southern Miss is on several positive ATS streaks, including 5-1 overall, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-0 as a favorite, 7-2 against Sun Belt Conference squads and 5-2 against teams with winning records.
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During its six-game winning streak to end the season, Middle Tennessee averaged 41.2 points a game and 466.8 yards per contest while allowing just 16.7 points and 294.3 yards per game. Southern Miss averaged 35.5 ppg during a 4-2 finish (5-1 ATS), but gave up 32.25 ppg in its final four contests. Both teams possess strong rushing attacks, with the Blue Raiders averaging 181.2 ypg on the ground (4.6 yards per carry) and the Golden Eagles putting up 188.3 rushing ypg (4.8 ypc).
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The Blue Raiders have gone over the posted in seven of 10 contests after a straight-up win, but the “under” is 4-1 in their last five as an underdog and 7-2 in their last nine against teams with a winning record. The Golden Eagles are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-2 overall, 4-1-1 in bowl games, 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 3-0-1 as a favorite and 11-4 after a spread-cover.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN MISS and UNDER
Jeff Benton
Oakland +14 at DENVER
I’ve hit 20 of my last 30 NFL free plays, including the Texans over the Seahawks last week. Let’s add to that streak by taking the Raiders plus the points at Denver on Sunday.
I know Oakland is going with third-string QB Charlie Frye, who hasn’t sniffed the field in a regular-season NFL game since losing his starting job to Derek Anderson in Cleveland three years ago. And while Frye was third-string for a reason this season, I’ll take him over JaMarcus Russell any day of the week, even if it is against one of the league’s better defenses. Unlike JaMarcus, at least Frye has some semblance of pocket presence.
As it is, the Raiders – who are coming off a 34-13 home loss to Washington – have been playing pretty predictable football lately, alternating wins and losses in their last five games (including stunning upsets of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and alternating spread-covers in their last nine games. Oakland has had a lot of success in Denver lately, too, covering in three straight visits and four of the last five, with two outright upsets (including a 31-10 victory as a nine-point ‘dog last year).
The Broncos have lost five of their last seven games both SU and ATS since starting out 6-0 SU and ATS. And since this contest figures to feature a lot of running – because Frye will be Oakland’s quarterback and because the Raiders’ strength on defense is its secondary while its rushing defense is awful – that will speed up the game and make these huge points even more valuable.
Finally, I’ve been on or against the Raiders in each of their last four games, cashing three times (including last Sunday’s 30 Dime winner on the Redskins). So I’m very much in tune with this squad, and I’ll get them right again.
4♦ OAKLAND
SportsInsights
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This match-up fits our "contrarian sports investing value" in several ways. First of all, a lot of "smart money" is coming in on Pittsburgh, with the line moving from its opener of Pitt -1 to -2 -- even with two-thirds of the bets taking Green Bay. This kind of reverse line movement means larger bets -- and bigger money -- is more getting down on the Steelers. SportsInsights.com's proprietary software has many Smart Money plays being triggered on Pittsburgh. In addition, our offshore contact, although still licking his wounds from last weekend, agreed that "his sharps liked the Steelers."
Another reason to like the Steelers is that we can totally "buy low and sell high." Pittsburgh is on a downward spiral, losing five games in a row, while Green Bay has won five in a row. Pittsburgh's "playoff backs" are against the wall and we expect them to come out smoking at home. The Steelers went from a 6-2 record to a 6-7 record during this streak, losing five close games to generally good teams. The Public is overwhelmingly on Green Bay and this game is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week. Take the contrarian value and shop for the Pittsburgh -1 line.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
The Minnesota Vikings continue to play solid football. However, we still feel that the media is causing the Vikings to be over-valued in the NFL Marketplace. With all of the hype about Brett Favre and the 11-2 Vikings, there is bound to be an inflated line. SportsInsights betting percentages verify that the Public is overwhelmingly on Minnesota. Including all types of bets, a huge 80% of bets are taking the Vikings minus a chunk of points (-9). Even more telling is that the "junk bets" such as teasers and parlays are going the way of the Vikings in a huge way: 85%! The Public loves these types of "teasers and parlay" bets, showing that this is a particularly big Public game.
These sports marketplace indicators make us want to "bet against the Public." At a quick glance, even contrarian bettors will cringe when they see this play. The mighty 11-2 Vikings against a mediocre 5-8 Carolina Panther team? We say: take out your holiday eggnog -- and Pepto Bismol -- and "man-up" with this Sunday Night Football play. The Carolina Panthers have the sixth best passing defense this year and have scored almost as many points as they have given up this year. The line has been bid up from its opener of Carolina +7 all the way up to Carolina +10. That is some huge line value. Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL regular season has been a good period to bet on home dogs. Take Carolina plus the huge points at home.
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is not the most glamorous games, but the NFL sports marketplace and SportsInsights' indicators had us keying in on this game. Keep your Pepto Bismol out because we like the 1-12 Tampa Bay Bucs in this match-up. About three out of every four bets is taking the Seattle Seahawks. The "junk bet" indicator that often flashes the "square Public's" views has a huge 81% of bets on Seattle.
Even with all of the betting activity on Seattle, there is "reverse line movement", with the line moving its opener of Tampa Bay +8.5 at CRIS (other books opened at TB +7), all the way down to TB +6.5. That is a huge line movement through the key football number of 7. The "smart money" really likes TB to move the line that much. Let's ride on the coattails of the "sharps" and "bet against the Public." TB has been on a slide, so let's hope to "buy" them at this recent low. If TB is going to "get off the ground," getting 6.5 points against a mediocre 5-8 Seattle team is a good place to start.
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
Golden Contender
Arizona at Detroit
Pick: Arizona
The Cards fit a nice system here today that plays on road favorites of more than 10 off a straight up and ats loss. These road favs bounce back big with a 12-0 and 11-1 ats record off the loss. The Cards are 55 yards better on offense and 40 yards better on defense. The Lions are 1-7 ats vs conerence opponents and may get blown out here today. The line is some what higher than it opened at,however the Cards have the fire power to cover it.
Doug Williams
Minnesota Vikings -9.5 @ Carolina Panthers +9.5
Minnesota have the number 4 ranked rush defense and they should easily be able to handle DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart.Pick: Vikings to Cover the -9.5
Green Bay Packers +2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -2
The Pack is on fire but his is where the streak stops for the Steelers.This will be a game dominated by the D. Pittsburgh should draw first blood, but it should also take at least half a quarter for either offense to get something going.Pick: Steelers to Cover the -2
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles -7.5
The Eagles know these next two games are relatively elementary, as that Dallas game in both teams regular season finale will more than likely decide the division one way or the other.Pick: 49ers to cover the +7.5
LT Profits
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
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Now we realize that offense is not the first thing that comes to mind in a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Seattle Seahawks, but that fact seems to be overly adjusted in this relatively low posted total, giving value to the Over.
After all, the Seahawks have been a different team at home than on the road, as they are averaging a very respectable 23.8 points per game here in Quest Field. In fact, they own a winning 4-2 record here and have scored at least 20 points in each of the four wins.
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They even showed they are capable of running up the score here, scoring 41 points on the Jacksonville Jaguars, 32 on the Detroit Lions and 28 on the St. Louis Rams. The Buccaneers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 27.4 points per game, so we could easily see the Seahawks approach 30 points again here.
That would mean the Bucs would not need to do much for this game to sneak Over, but the truth of the matter is that Tampa Bay has actually m0ved the ball fairly well since Josh Freeman took over at quarterback. The only reason that has not resulted in more points is because Freeman has thrown an alarming 13 interceptions with a high percentage of those coming in the red zone.
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If Freeman can throw the ball to the right colored jersey, the improvement of the Tampa offense would be much more obvious. Look for the Buccaneers to at exceed their season average of 14.6 points per game here, which combined with what we expect from Seattle should be enough to push this game Over.
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Pick: Buccaneers/Seahawks Over 39
Tom Freese
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San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Under
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Philadelphia is 21-5-1 UNDER their last 27 games as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and they are 19-7 UNDER after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. The Eagles are 10-2 UNDER in home games after a road game where both teams scored more than 24 points. San Francisco is 6-1 UNDER their last 7 December games and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games overall. The 49ers are 4-0 UNDER in Week 15 and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Scott Rickenbach
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Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
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Last week we rode the Ravens to victory as we faded the Lions. Baltimore easily got the cash for us. This week were going to once again make an investment on a big favorite and go against the Lions. We often stay away from big favorites in the NFL but, as noted previously, this season has been filled with blowouts. That said, a Detroit team hosting Arizona off of an embarrassing Monday Night loss is very likely to produce another one. After getting blasted by 22 points on Thanksgiving Day the Lions bounced back with a cover at Cincinnati two weeks ago. However, they quickly resumed their dreadful role of getting blasted as last week they lost to Baltimore 48 to 3.
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Similar to last weeks situation where we took a respectable team off of a Monday night loss we do the same this week with the Cardinals. The Cards turned the ball over seven times against the 49ers. The Cardinals will look to redeem themselves after Mondays disaster. The Lions are a double digit dog here but they are just 2-5 ATS in that role this season! Detroit is at home but they are just 7-21 ATS at home the last three seasons. Note that Arizona is 6-2 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The Cardinals had those major turnover issues Monday but previously had turned the ball over just four times in their last five games. As for the Lions, they have turned the ball over 17 times in their last six games! Consider a small play on Arizona minus the big points Sunday.