LARRY NESS
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Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -2
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The Packers seemed 'dead' when they followed a second loss this year to the Vikings with a 38-28 loss at Tampa Bay back on November 8. However, Green Bay has won five straight games since that loss (5-0 ATS) with Aaron Rodgers completing 69.0 percent of his passes with nine TDs and just two INTs. The defense has done its part as well (more on that later), allowing just 14.2 PPG. As for the Steelers, they were 6-2 at the halfway point in the season and seemingly headed back to the postseason to defend their Super Bowl title. Not so fast, as Lee Corso would say. No defending champ has lost this many games in a row since the NY Giants did the same thing back in 1987. The Steelers five-game slide has included losses to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland. Those teams are a combined 9-30! Pittsburgh could win out and finish 9-7 but even then, Pittsburgh's playoff chances look slim. That being said, I doubt anyone expects the Steelers to go quietly. Big Ben sat out one game this year (which made Ward unhappy) but despite being sacked 38 times, he's posted impressive numbers. He's completing 68.3 percent of his throws (that would be a career high) and is on pace to top 4,000 yards (would be a first). He just 19 TD passes (career high is 32) but his QB rating of 98.2 would be his second-best ever. Mendenhall (940 YR / 4.8 YPC) is now the No. 1 back and the duo of Holmes and Ward don't t take a back seat to many WR combos. As always, Pittsburgh can play defense, allowing 294.1 YPG, just 18.8 PPG and ranking first in stopping the run (84.9 YPG / 3.7 YPC). However, Green Bay's defense is even better this year, allowing 272.0 YPG (2nd) and 18.7 PPG. Its rush D is just one tick below the Steelers, allowing 85.0 YPG (3.6 YPC). The pass D has been terrific, allowing 53.3 percent completions (2nd-best) and while it has allowed 24 TD passes, it has 23 INTs (3rd-most) and an opposing QB rating of 68.3 (3rd-best). Now here's the rub. The Packers just haven't been tested too often on the road. They've lost at Minnesota and even at Tampa Bay (Bucs' only win TY!). Their wins have come at the Rams, Browns, Lions and Bears, a dreadful group. Green Bay is 'sitting pretty' in the wild card race but the Packers sure didn't like Dallas winning last night. However, five straight wins is a lot in the NFL these days (unless you play in Indy) and are the Steelers really going to lose six in a row? That hasn't happened this decade, as the Steelers last lost six in a row back in 1999 (Nov 14-Dec 18). Take Pittsburgh.
Hollywood Sports
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Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
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The meeting between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers offers two teams moving in opposite directions. The Steelers (6-7) seems to have lost their spirit after dropping their fifth game in a row last week in their 13-6 loss at Cleveland. What is particularly troublesome about this losing streak is the fact that the combined record of their opponents in these five consecutive losses is just 9-30. The Steelers have been decimated by injuries with perhaps the most significant being the continued loss of All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu. The Packers have won five straight games following their 21-14 win at Chicago. Over these last five games, the defense has stepped up to hold their opponents to just 14.2 PPG. And in their last three games, the Packers defense has recorded nine interceptions. Overall, Green Bay leads the NFC in defense by holding their opponents to just 272 YPG. While protecting QB Aaron Rodgers has been a problem this season, he has only been sacked four times in the last three games. The Steelers have failed to cover the spread as a home favorite of a field goal or less in eleven of their last twelve games while the Packers have covered in four of their last five games as an underdog of a field goal or less. Whatever is wrong with Pittsburgh, they have just not shown the tenacity necessary to defeat a strong Packers team looking to clinch a playoff bid. Lay the points with the Packers.
EZWINNERS
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Minnesota Vikings -9
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The Vikings still need to win to wrap up the #2 seed in the NFC, and I expect them to do so here rather easily. The strength of the Panthers offense is their running game, but they are going to have a hard time getting anything going against the Minnesota run defense that is one of the best in the NFL. The Panthers will not be able to match points with the Vikings offense. Carolina leads the league in give aways and I expect them to turn it over against this defense. The Vikings are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a losing record. Lay the points.
Tony Weston
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Absolutely easy call last night as the Cowboys and Saints stay Under the Total, just like I said they would.
I’m handing you another winner today on the NFL’s gridiron as I’m taking the Cleveland Browns on the road at the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s kind of tough to gauge who is more talented because both Cleveland and Kansas City are pretty crappy football teams. But one thing’s for sure, the Browns have been playing their asses off lately.
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Despite being just 2-11 SU this season, the Browns are a respectable 7-6 ATS. And after a stretch where they failed to cover in three straight games, Cleveland has covered in 4 straight games, including last week’s 13-6 outright victory over the Steelers as a 9 1/2 point underdog.
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The Chiefs, on the other hand, are riding a 3-game SU and ATS losing streak and have lost back-to-back home games by an average of 18.5 points per game.
While I’m not saying the Browns will win by 18 1/2 points, they will get the outright win. Take Cleveland in this one.
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3♦ BROWNS
Bobby Maxwell
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Miami +4' at TENNESSEE
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Amazing FREE run continues as I improved to 8-1 with my last nine after Wyoming upset Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday. I'm 31-14 with my last 45 comp plays and will add to that with an NFL winner on the Dolphins today at Tennessee.
Miami comes into this one having won two straight games, beating the Patriots and Jaguars and in the thick of the AFC wildcard picture. They got some help from the Colts on Thursday night when they knocked off the Jags and really threw that final wildcard spot up for grabs.
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There’s a chance for some ugly weather in Tennessee today and that means running games will be on display. Miami has the league’s third-best running game at 150.1 yards per game that allows them the ability to control the clock, holding it for an average of 32:31 per game.
The Titans beat up St. Louis a week ago, winning 47-7 as a 13 ½-point favorite, but they are still on the outside looking up at the playoff picture after they lost their first six to start the season. RB Chris Johnson leads the NFL with rushing yards, at 1,626 yards this season.
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Neither one of these defenses gives up much on the ground, with Tennessee allowing 99.4 yards per contest while the Dolphins give up 106.2 rushing yards per outing.
Miami is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in December, 6-1 against AFC teams and 4-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the Titans are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight against winning teams.
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Like the way this Dolphins’ team has been stepping up defensively lately. Expect them to contain Johnson and shut down the Titans. Grab the points and play Miami.
2♦ MIAMI
Karl Garrett
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San Francisco +7' at PHILADELPHIA
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Orlando Magic on Saturday night makes it 6 straight comp play winners.
For Sunday in the NFL, the G-Man likes the points to work with the San Francisco 49ers as they pay a visit to snowy Philadelphia.
Philly has taken over first place in the NFC East by winning its last four games, and after a tough division road clash at the Giants last Sunday night, I expect the Eagles to suffer a little bit of a letdown back at the Linc.
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San Francisco kept its flickering playoff hopes alive with a huge Monday night outright win over Arizona, and Mike Singletary has certainly enjoyed the role of underdog during his short tenure, as his team is on an 8-0-1 spread run when catching points.
So far this season the Niners have won outright at Arizona, covered at Minnesota and Indianapolis, and rallied to push at Green Bay - some pretty tough road venues.
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While Philadelphia has stepped up big down the stretch over the past month, the Eagles still have dates with Denver at home and Dallas on the road to go, and after playing four of their last five on the road, I can definitely see the Birds allowing the 49ers to hang inside this generous impost.
Philly has failed to cover in each of its last two home games, needing a last-minute field goal to nip Washington and losing outright to Dallas, and I think the Eagles will fail to get the job done in Vegas once more on Sunday as well.
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Take San Francisco plus the points.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Stephen Nover
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Cleveland at KANSAS CITY
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Two horrendous defenses against two improved offenses in a meaningless game with a low total is a nice formula to play over.
How bad are Cleveland and Kansas City defensively? Cleveland ranks 31st giving up 386 yards per game. Kansas City is next rating 30th allowing 385 yards per contest. The Chiefs are giving up 26.3 points per game, while the Browns are yielding 24.2 points an outing.
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The weather at Arrowhead Stadium is expected to be fine with 40-degree temperatures and 11 mph winds with a 20 percent chance of rain. This leaves the key question can these offenses produce enough points?
I believe they can. Let's start with the Browns. I'm not a fan of Brady Quinn, aka Captain Checkdown, but he does have a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games.
The Browns have more outside speed now that plodding Jamal Lewis is out of commission so they should take advantage of Kansas City's 28th-ranked run defense. Josh Cribbs is the Browns' best weapon and he's going to be utilized more than just on kickoff and punt returns. He ran for 87 yards off the Wildcat formation in freezing conditions against the Steelers last week.
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Look for the Chiefs offense to be better, too, with Dwayne Bowe rejoining the starting lineup after being suspended for four games. He's by far Kansas City's top receiving threat. Bowe will make Matt Cassel a better quarterback. Just watch.
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The Chiefs already have found a dangerous running back threat in Jamaal Charles. It doesn't say much for coach Todd Haley that he didn't figure out Charles was his top runner until Larry Johnson was finally jettisoned.
2♦ KANSAS CITY-CLEVELAND OVER
Lenny Del Genio
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DEN / OAK UNDER 37
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The Raiders have caught three non-division foes by surprise this season, beating Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh outright. Two of those victories came with QB Bruce Gradkowski at the helm as the Toledo grad came in relief for the ineffective JaMarcus Russell, who when all is said and done could go down as the worst #1 overall choice in the history of the NFL Draft. However, Gradkowski went down in the Washington game last week and with Russell at the helm once again, the bottom once again dropped out in Oakland. Word is that the team is actually considering Charlie Fry to start at QB this week vs. Denver if Gradkowski can't go.
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Still Denver cannot be trusted laying this many points considering a 4-17 ATS home record. We see this game going very much like the Raiders Thanksgiving Day loss to the Cowboys where we also cashed the Under. Six of the last eight meetings between these teams in Denver have gone Under the total. In the Week 3 matchup in Oakland, a 23-3 Denver win, the Broncos held the Raiders to just 137 yards of total offense. Last week, after the team had to turn to Russell, the Oakland offense managed just three total yards on their final four drives, two of which ended on downs and another on an interception.
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The Raiders cannot run the ball. Last week was the fifth time this season they were held to less than 70 yards on the ground. They have scored 13 points or less an astounding nine times this season. Denver is far from a scoring machine either as they've scored 17 or less eight times. They'll win this game based on a defense that allows just 16.5 PPG at home where they've gone Under in all six games this season. Oakland is 8-1 Under when coming off an Over and 7-0 Under when coming off a double-digit home loss. Take Under Oakland/Denver.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Baltimore Ravens -11
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The Bears are just 1-5 SU & ATS on the road this season and enter this week's contest having lost 6 in a row against the number. Baltimore is emerging as the favorite to take the AFC's last playoff slot and it clearly looked motivated when it destroyed Detroit 48-3 last week. In fact, the Ravens are a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record under coach Harbaugh, winning these games by an average score of 32.4 to 9.5. We'll lay the points for 1 Unit Sunday.
SPORTSWAGERS
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S. Mississippi –3½ over Mid Tennessee State PINNACLE
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The first ever meeting between these two teams will feature plenty of offense, as both teams racked up over 30 points a game during the regular season. The main difference between these two schools is that Southern Mississippi did it while playing in the strong Conference USA while Middle Tennessee State did it while playing in the worst conference in College Football. This isn’t to say that the Blue Raiders will have trouble scoring, but it’s important to recognize that Southern Mississippi will be the best team they have played since conference play started. The step up in competition from the dregs of the Sun Belt to the high-powered offense of Southern Mississippi will surely play a factor this Sunday. Consider that against horrific Memphis at home and Sun Belt champion Troy, Middle Tennessee State managed to score 31 and 7 points. That simply won’t win the game against a Southern Miss squad that put up 43 points against Houston, 44 against Tulsa and almost upset conference champion East Carolina in the season finale. Middle Tennessee State’s QB Dwight Dasher put up some ridiculous numbers throwing and running the football but one could make the case Martevious Young is just as good a quarterback at this point in the season. Young took over when Austin Davis went down and had a 13-1 touchdown to interception ratio while throwing for 1577 yards in seven games. Southern Mississippi lost the three games he played in by a combined 14 points. Both these teams will trade touchdowns and one of them may open up a significant lead but at the pace and efficiency they both play at the final score should be relatively close. Southern Mississippi played a much better schedule and won’t be surprised by the talent level of the Blue Raiders. They played the two toughest opponents on their schedule very close and even if the defense plays poorly they should be able to name the score on offense. Play: Southern Mississippi –3½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
JIM FEIST
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ARIZONA CARDINALS at DETROIT LIONS
TAKE: ARIZONA CARDINALS
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A match-up in hell for the home team, with a lousy secondary against the embarrassed Cards. The Cardinals (8-5 SU/7-6 ATS) are a pass-first offense with QB Warner (23 TDs, 13 INTs), WR Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and WR Steve Breaston, ranking 4th in passing. The Cardinals wrote the first chapter Monday night of “How Not to Play Football” in an ugly loss at San Francisco (11 penalties), coughing it up 7 times (5 fumbles). Arizona star WR Larry Fitzgerald left the Cardinals game against the 49ers on Monday night briefly in the second half with a sprained right knee. They didn’t have their heads in the game, probably sporting a hangover following that impressive 30-10 drubbing of the Vikings, a statement game. They rolled up 398 yards on the strong Minnesota defense as Warner shredded the secondary. The defense ranks 21st behind a new defensive coordinator, who likes to blitz more. More teams are playing two-deep zone coverage against the Cardinals, concentrating on stopping receiver Larry Fitzgerald from getting deep. To counter, the Cardinals are putting Fitzgerald in motion more and lining him up in different spots to try to create mismatches. With a victory here, the Cardinals would clinch their second consecutive division title, something they haven't accomplished since 1974-75. The young Lions (2-11 SU/3-10 ATS) have a new Head Coach in Jim Schwartz and new looks everywhere, though the defense is as bad as ever, ranked 31st overall. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford (13 TDs, 20 INTs) has an injured left throwing shoulder and didn’t play Sunday. Stafford could be back this week. For those pining for QB Daunte Culpepper (1 TD, 4 picks) he played Sunday and was terrible in a 48-3 loss at Baltimore, as the offense had 229 total yards and the defense allowed 548 yards. The Lions finished with no sacks, no tackles for loss, two quarterback hits and no interceptions as the Ravens piled up 308 rushing yards. The Lions lost running back Kevin Smith to a serious knee injury in the fourth quarter. They have a terrible offensive line and no help from an awful defense. Lions' TE Brandon Pettigrew is out for season with knee injury. The Detroit defense gave up 439 yards to a Cleveland offense that has been stuck in first gear all season, and Aaron Rodgers finished 28-of-39 for 348 yards, carving up the Detroit secondary. This offensive line has allowed 7 sacks to the Steelers, Green Bay had 7 sacks in two games, the Rams and Seahawks had 2 more apiece, 3 more to Cleveland and 5 to Baltimore Sunday. Detroit is 2-34 SU, 11-24-1 ATS its last 36 games.
Bob Balfe
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Broncos -14 over Raiders
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The Broncos are in a playoff hunt and cant play around with the Raiders today. Denver had their way earlier this year in Oakland not allowing the Raiders to score a TD. Today at home against a Raiders team that will be starting Charlie Frye and without half of their Wide receivers should result in a similar outcome. They key loss for the Raiders will be Zach Miller who looks like he wont play. If Denver can limit turnovers they should win this game with ease. Take the Broncos.
Chris Jordan
Cleveland at KANSAS CITY -2
One headline read: "Mirror of Misery"
I've known some great headline writers in my time in the journalism fields, but that might have been one of the most spot-on, simple banners I've seen in a while.
But when you look deeper into this one, I'm not so sure the Chiefs are as bad as Cleveland. In fact, I don't think their in the same vicinity.
Though the Chiefs are 3-10 and the Browns are 2-11, I believe we've seen Kansas City progress mildly, while Eric Mangini's troops have digressed over the campaign and led fans to doubt whether or not he was the right man for the job.
With Kansas City, the Chiegs got somewhat of a proven winner in Todd Haley, as he helped lead the Cardinals to the Super Bowl last season as their offensive coordinator. He's instilled some confidence, and changed some early negativity about him into positive outlooks for the future.
Realistically, of all the new NFL coaches this season, Mangini is arguably the only one on the hot seat, and that goes for Tampa Bay's Raheem Morris, who simpy has no talent.
Mangini had two quarterbacks who could start and screwed that up.
Heck, Mike Holmgren might be waiting in the wings to decide on the job as Director of Football Operations, but believe me, that translates into "give me the headphones."
Bottom line is, I am taking the Chiefs in this one specifically (in case you hadn't noticed) because Haley will outcoach Mangini today.
Lay the small chalk with Kansas City.
2♦ CHIEFS
Steve Duemig
Houston -14 at ST. LOUIS
For Sunday's comp play, let's take a quick, quick peak at the Houston-St. Louis game because it doesn't take much to decide which way to go in this contest.
Let's face it, the Rams are putrid. They are starting a third-string rookie QB who threw 5 interceptions in last week's 47-7 blowout loss at the hands of the Titans. And, they are a one-man offense in Steven Jackson, and he has had about enough with an aching back running behind a revamped offensive line. No wonder he had a season-low 47 yards versus Tennessee.
I can't see the Rams doing anything here in this one and the Texans are great when they have nothing to play for as their 8-3 ATS run in the month of December certainly proves.
Lay the points with Houston.
1♦ HOUSTON
Dominic Fazzini
Tampa Bay at SEATTLE -6'
I gave you another winner with my complimentary selection Saturday, as the underdog Jazz won outright at Charlotte. That boosted my record to 44-27 over the past 71 days, including a run of 27-14 over the last 41!
And I've got another winner lined up that I expect to come in just as easily with the Seahawks at home against Tampa Bay. This is not so much a play on Seattle as it is one against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is arguably the worst team in the NFL, having lost 16 of its last 17 games.
The Bucs have scored a combined nine points over the past two weeks. They managed just 124 yards of offense last week in their 26-3 loss to the Jets, including a ridiculous 15 yards in the first half. They didn't even make a first down until the third quarter, and that came on a penalty.
Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has thrown eight interceptions over the past two weeks, and Tampa's running game has gained less than 73 yards in two of the team's last three games.
The Buccaneers' defense might be even worse, allowing an average of 27.4 points per game, which is third-worst in the league.
Seattle is not really a good team, but I expect it to bounce back at home, where it is 4-2 SU, after last weekend's 34-7 thrashing at Houston.
The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall, 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog and 0-4 in its last four games in December. Take Seattle to win by more than a touchdown today.
4♦ SEATTLE