Scott Delaney
Cincinnati at San Diego
I am going to be as tactful as possible in starting this analysis, but I liked the Bengals long before the tragic death of receiever Chris Henry.
Now it's just added motivation if you ask me.
Everyone figured to be on the Bolts today after they struck down the Cowboys in Dallas, and after the Vikings made the Bengals look like the Browns.
It's a classic trap of sucking in the public. Sort of how everyone - including myself - got sucked into the Saints yesterday.
Yet despite the sudden death of Henry, the Bengals have moved along like business as usual. And make note, last I checked, this is still a matchup between division leaders in the AFC, and more importantly, a showdown that should eventually decide the conference's No. 2 seed and the difference between an off-week, or a Wild Card game.
This is not a touchdown-spread game.
Playing with heavy hearts, I have to believe the Bengals are going to bring everything they've got in honor of their fallen soldier.
They're already on a stunning 8-1 run as an underdog, so you have to expect them to keep this one close. Cincinnati is 4-1 as a road underdog and has also covered six of seven against winning teams, so playing to the level of competition is never an issue.
The underdog has covered in 12 of the Bengals' 13 games this season - the lone exception was last week - so I'm liking these points more and more.
3♦ BENGALS
Michael Cannon
Green Bay +2 at PITTSBURGH
I am now 45-34-2 with my last 81 overall free plays.
Take the Packers plus the small number over the Steelers today.
Pittsburgh has mailed it in on the season. If that wasn’t evident after the Steelers lost at home to the Raiders, it had to be after that embarrassing loss to Cleveland last Thursday.
The Steelers actually looked like they quit on their coach in that game. With the playoffs still a distinct possibility they went through the motions and didn’t bring any effort into the game.
The blame also goes to the coaches for that performance. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is so enamored with the pass he’s taken the physical identity away from a team that has long been known for smashmouth football.
Now they have to host one of the hotter teams in the league in the Packers. A team that is getting hot at precisely the right time. A team that has a top-notch quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.
My question to Mike Tomlin is this, if a clown like Bruce Gradkowski could light your defense up for over 300 yards passing, what do you think Rodgers is going to do?
It’s been a hard fall for the defending champs and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight.
Take the Packers as the small dog as they get it done in Pittsburgh.
5♦ GREEN BAY
Drew Gordon
Miami at TENNESSEE -5
24-13-2 roll L39 Free Plays, incl. Bulls Thursday, Thunder Friday, and Duke Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Dolphins-Titans match up.
Despite both teams playing well in December, this game belongs to the Titans, who are playing excellent football at home of late. Titans are rolling, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS L7 games, and that includes some impressive efforts at LP Field (against a good Arizona team, & blowout wins vs lesser teams: Jaguars, Bills, Rams).
Looking over the stats, there's plenty to like about the Titans here. Over their L3 games, there's no question which team is playing better, with Tennessee averaging 28 ppg on 451 total yards! For comparison's sake, the Dolphins are averaging just 16 ppg on 365 total yards... A huge disparity! The defenses have been about equal, but I still like the Titans stop-unit at home a hell of a lot better than the Phins on the road (they may have stopped the Jaguars in their last roadie, but they looked terrible in Buffalo in the road game prior).
Finally, if theres one game in which the absence of Jason Ferguson will be felt, it will be versus this run-heavy Titans team. Chris Johnson is an absolute stud, and a 3-4 defense without a "real" defensive tackle is VERY vulnerable against the run. Yes, I'm fully aware they were able to slow the Jaguars last week, but doing it two weeks in a row is A LOT easier said than done. Dolphins are in big trouble on the road today, plain and simple.
Take Tennessee over Miami in this NFL match up.
2♦ TENNESSEE
Craig Davis
Today's free play is the Cincinnati Bengals. The "emotion card" is often times underrated in the NFL, and today I'm playing it and I think the Bengals are too. The loss of a teammate due to a tragic accident is hard to deal with, and earlier in the week I was under the impression that it would actually be a hindrance to the Bengals. I've since changed my opinion... and I actually think it will play right into their hands. Coming off a loss, dealing with the loss of a teammate, traveling all the way across the country to face the hottest team in the NFL... everything is stacked against them and that's usually when teams come together. It's amazing what so many "downers" can do to a team, but that's exactly what I believe is going to happen to the Bengals today. They'll give the Chargers a healthy dose of Cedric Benson... and that's not good for a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against the run. It's going to be hard for San Diego to score when their offense is on the sidelines. And let's not forget the Bengals still do have a solid pass defense, and if you look back at last week's loss to Minnesota, you'll see that it wasn't Brett Favre that beat them but turnovers and Adrian Peterson. If the Bengals avoid those turnovers today, they'll easily keep this game inside the 7 points Vegas is asking. Free play of the day on the Bengals plus the points.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Tom Freese
Charlotte Bobcats at New York Knicks
Charlotte is 8-2 ATS with no rest and they are 5-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Bobcats are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40% and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games as road dogs. New York is 3-9 ATS 2 games as home favorites and they are 1-7 ATS vs. NBA Southeast Division teams. The Knicks are 0-4 ATS their last 4 meetings with the Bobcats and they are 2-6 ATS at home vs. the Bobcats.
Play on: Charlotte
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Bucs at Seattle Seahawks
The favorite is 12-1 ATS in Seahawks games this year. Since 2004, the team is 11-1-1 ATS in the months of December and January playing in Seattle. That includes eight straight covers. Tampa Bay is just 1-11 ATS when visiting NFC West opponents. QB Freeman has a TD-INT ratio of 0-8 the last two weeks. They have averaged just 14.9 PPG during a nine-game road losing streak. Seattle is 12-2 ATS as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS if they went Under in both of their previous two games.
Play on: Seattle
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Texans -14
Bottom Line: St. Louis is banged up and laying dead in the water here for a Texans team that still has a shot at the final playoff slot in the AFC. St. Louis is just 6-15 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by 15.9 points on average, and 6-18 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by 15.1 points on average. The Rams are 0-6 at home this season, losing by an average of 17.7 points and they just don't have enough fire power to stay with the Texans here. Lay the points.
JACK JONES
San Francisco 49ers +8.5 over Philadelphia Eagles
Lot of points here so the value has to be with San Francisco. This is a team that is allowing just 18.6 ppg against teams who normally put up 22.2 and they found their ground game last Monday night with Frank Gore posting big numbers.
The Eagles have a potent offense, but I don't see the 49ers yielding the big plays that Philadelphia likes to go for with Desean Jackson. San Fran is coming off a solid defensive performance against another solid passing team in Arizona, and I see another steady performance out of them on Sunday.
OC Dooley 12/20
Panthers +9
Minnesota can clinch the NFC North divisional title with a victory this evening, but there is a possibility that they could be celebrating BEFORE this game even kicks off. The Vikings would wrap up a rare divisional title if Green Bay loses at Pittsburgh late this afternoon and that is a possibility since the Steelers are favored on their own homefield. We saw this past Monday Night on the national stage that it is not exactly easy for teams to clinch a divisional title as Arizona ended up losing outright on the road. Going into that Monday encounter I mentioned in the analysis that the Cardinals franchise had not won consecutive divisional titles in 34 YEARS and they promptly failed as a road favorite. Recent history is also against Minnesota as the Vikings have not registered 12 victories in a single season since 1998 and divisional titles have been rare in that span. Just like Arizona on Monday evening, we have a popular road favorite tonight attempting to clinch a division against an opponent with a below .500 record. On paper tonight’s game appears to be a serious mismatch which is why the line has shot up from an opening figure of 7’ points. To make a long story short Carolina has now lost both of their starting offensive tackles to injury which is going to have a negative affect on a vaunted rushing attack led by DeAngelo Williams. Carolina may have to lean a bit more heavily on reserve quarterback Matt Moore’s aerial skills because Minnesota’s defense is ranked way up at #4 versus the run. Due to injury problems both on the offensive line and to lead quarterback Jake Delhomme, the Panthers offense has produced fewer than 20 points in each of the past 4 outings. After averaging 26 points per outing a year ago, the Carolina offense is now putting up just 17 points per game this campaign. Despite the apparent mismatch on paper the fact of the matter is that Minnesota has not played at Carolina in 4 years and they lost the last visit to Charlotte. In addition veteran Vikings quarterback Brett Favre who has enjoyed a tremendous campaign has thrown 3 interceptions in the past couple of games and we all know how critical turnovers can be. For those of you who are into percentages it does not get much better than when you give Panthers head coach John Fox excessive points to work with. Carolina has COVERED SEVEN IN A ROW when cast as a home underdog of 7’-to-14 points which is the case tonight. Dating all the way back to 1992 Carolina is also a staggering 7-0 ATS/HOME when facing an excellent offensive opponent who averages at least 375 total yards per contest. Do I hear 8-0 ATS anyone?!
DUNKEL INDEX
New England at Buffalo
The Patriots look to take advantage of a Buffalo team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games. New England is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: New England (-7)
Game 305-306: Green Bay at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.359; Pittsburgh 129.281
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2); Over
Game 307-308: Miami at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.380; Tennessee 138.831
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 309-310: New England at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.937; Buffalo 130.866
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 38
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under
Game 311-312: Arizona at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 135.310; Detroit 120.164
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 15; 50
Vegas Line: Arizona by 11 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-11 1/2); Over
Game 313-314: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 133.656; Philadelphia 136.636
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+9 1/2); Over
Game 315-316: Atlanta at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 127.153; NY Jets 138.235
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 11; 36
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 317-318: Chicago at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 126.406; Baltimore 135.959
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 11; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+11); Under
Game 319-320: Cleveland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.911; Kansas City 123.471
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2); Under
Game 321-322: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.883; St. Louis 119.670
Dunkel Line: Houston by 15; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 323-324: Cincinnati at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.320; San Diego 141.883
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6 1/2); Under
Game 325-326: Oakland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.230; Denver 134.520
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Denver by 14; 37
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+14); Under
Game 327-328: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 124.792; Seattle 126.581
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+7); Over
Game 329-330: Minnesota at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 137.721; Carolina 133.256
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9; 43
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9); Over
MONDAY, DECEMBER 21
Time Posted: 9:30 p.m. EST (11/4)
Game 331-332: NY Giants at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 131.204; Washington 131.799
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under
NBA
Portland at Miami
The Heat look to take advantage of a Portland team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog. Miami is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5)
Game 501-502: New Orleans at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.723; Toronto 117.731
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 4; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Denver at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.382; Memphis 120.466
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 1; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 2 1/2; 209 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+2 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: Portland at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.636; Miami 123.180
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Over
Game 507-508: LA Lakers at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 124.630; Detroit 119.532
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 184
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8); Under
Game 509-510: Minnesota at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.655; Boston 127.203
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 14 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 13; 197
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-13); Over
Game 511-512: Charlotte at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.143; New York 122.496
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3; 193
Dunkel Pick: New York (-3); Over
Game 513-514: Cleveland at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.543; Dallas 122.936
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4); Under
NCAAB
Central Florida at Connecticut
The Golden Knights look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games as an underdog. Central Florida is the pick (+19) according to Dunkel, which has Connecticut favored by only 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+19)
Game 515-516: Central Florida at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 56.830; Connecticut 74.520
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 19
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+19)
Game 517-518: Bradley at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 59.797; Iowa State 65.924
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 6
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+8)
Game 519-520: AR-Little Rock at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 52.150; Arkansas State 51.802
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (+3 1/2)
Game 521-522: Florida International at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 39.180; North Texas 58.598
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: North Texas by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-15 1/2)
Game 523-524: Florida State at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 68.742; Georgia Tech 69.214
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+6 1/2)
Game 525-526: North Carolina State at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina State 65.157; Wake Forest 68.134
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 3
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State (+9 1/2)
Game 527-528: Davidson vs. Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 54.032; Cornell 59.997
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 6
Vegas Line: Cornell by 7
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+7)
Game 529-530: Hofstra vs. St. John's
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 53.473; St. John's 63.138
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. John's by 7
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (-7)
Game 531-532: San Diego vs. South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 52.124; South Florida 63.247
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 533-534: San Francisco vs. Southern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 44.361; Southern Illinois 58.753
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 535-536: Fairfield at Rhode Island
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 55.273; Rhode Island 65.391
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 10
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+11 1/2)
Game 537-538: Northern Arizona at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 46.341; Colorado State 59.835
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
St. Louis at Vancouver
The Blues look to bounce back from a 6-3 loss to Tampa Bay and build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games following a home loss by 3 or more goals. St. Louis is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165)
Game 1-2: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.543; Chicago 12.092
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+185); Over
Game 3-4: St. Louis at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.261; Vancouver 11.111
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165); Over
John Ryan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Seattle set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that Tampa Bay will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system that has produced a record of 47-16 ATS for 75% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 10 or more points facing an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points and is a slow starting team outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half and after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games. Seattle is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games versus poor rushing defenses allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992. Take Seattle.
ALEX SMART
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Under 41
Heinz Field will be the site of one of the most important games of the weekend where the Green Bay Packers (9-4, 8-4-1 ATS) will aim to nail down their playoff berth with a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7, 4-9 ATS).
It was a struggle for the entire game, but the Packers may have essentially sewn up their playoff bid with a 21-14 victory at Soldier Field on Sunday. The win may have also doubled as a pink slip for Bears' HC Lovie Smith, who could have a lot of explaining to do about the way his team has performed this year after it traded a mint to get QB Jay Cutler in the offseason. RB Ryan Grant's one-yard TD plunge with 12:42 to play proved to be the game-winner. The Packers defense swarmed the entire field as Chicago only managed to gain 254 yards worth of offense the entire game. QB Jay Cutler threw a pair of interceptions and really could've thrown at least two more. One of those picks fell into the hands of DB Charles Woodson, who has a great gripe for Defensive Player of the Year honors. Green Bay recorded three sacks in the victory.
S.O.S.! The USS Pittsburgh is sinking right now, and will only be able to pull itself out of this mess on its own. Even though it feels like every week gets uglier and uglier for the boys in black and gold, last week was probably the culmination of it all. Losing against your 1-11 arch rivals on their home turf is simply inexcusable, especially with the national spotlight showing down upon you. Don't blame the pass defense for the Steelers, which held QB Brady Quinn to just 6/19 passing for 90 yards. HC Mike Tomlin's club just repeatedly shot itself in the foot when it mattered most, allowing eight sacks and going just 3-of-14 on third down. The 13-6 loss in Cleveland would've ended everything had Jacksonville beaten Miami on Sunday, but the Steelers are still just a game back in the AFC Wild Card race and aren't out of it yet.
It should be cold, it should be nasty, and it really could be overall brutal conditions for football. Both teams have outstanding defenses that need to step up in a big way to march away with a 'W'. It seems very, very unlikely that either team is going to get into the 20s in this one. Bank on a defensive slugfest in Blitzburgh!
DUNKEL INDEX
Middle Tennessee State vs. Southern Mississippi
The Blue Raiders look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games overall. Middle Tennessee State is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+3 1/2)
Game 205-206: Middle Tennessee State vs. Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 86.236; Southern Mississippi 85.738
Dunkel Line: Even; 54
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+3 1/2); Under
Mike Hook
SDC / CIN Under 44
First off, this game is being played in San Diego, where there are no weather concerns. That's huge today considering the amount of games that are expected to be hampered due to weather concerns. That's not the case in San Diego, so it's no surprise to see this total being a very popular play. Obviously this OVER is being bet pretty hard, but why?
The perception is this Chargers offense is unstoppable. The perception of the Bengals is Carson Palmer and this passing attack. But what is the reality? The Bengals are the 2nd best defense in the NFL with regards to points allowed per game. The Chargers have been on a huge winning streak, but not many people realize how much better their defense is playing during this stretch. They haven't allowed more than 23 points during their current winning streak.
With so much action on this OVER, why isn't the line moving? I believe it's not moving because the sharp action is actually on this under 44. Cincinnati in particular is a lights out defense when playing as an underdog. This team doesn't allow you to win by rushing the football, as they stop the opposing rushing attack more often than not. The Bengals are coming off a loss, and mentally are in a tough spot with the passing of Chris Henry. I believe their defense is going to step up today and try to make the Chargers one dimensional.
I believe San Diego has their work cut out for them today, especially in the red zone. I think this game will stay under 41 points today, so i see some nice value in backing this under. With the public perception the way it is with this game, we will take advantage. I like the UNDER 44