Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

LA Clippers at Phoenix
The Clippers are coming off a 97-85 win over Sacramento and look to build on their 11-2 ATS record in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. LA is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-6)

Game 801-802: Philadelphia at Brooklyn (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 112.686; Brooklyn 119.439
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-5 1/2); Over

Game 803-804: Minnesota at New York (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.482; New York 123.565
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 4; 205
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 805-806: Utah at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.361; Orlando 116.311
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 3; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 1 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-1 1/2); Over

Game 807-808: Dallas at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 113.814; San Antonio 126.720
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 13; 198
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 11; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-11); Under

Game 809-810: LA Clippers at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.275; Phoenix 117.228
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 193
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6; 196
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-6); Under

Game 5811-812: Portland at Sacramento (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 117.247; Sacramento 115.854
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NCAAB

St. Mary's at Northern Iowa
The Panthers look to build on their 17-8 ATS record in their last 25 Sunday games. Northern Iowa is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+2 1/2)

Game 813-814: Brown at Northwestern (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 48.736; Northwestern 59.990
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+13 1/2)

Game 815-816: Cleveland State at Akron (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 50.540; Akron 65.275
Dunkel Line: Akron by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 12
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-12)

Game 817-818: James Madison vs. San Diego (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 51.664; San Diego 54.126
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-2)

Game 819-820: Mississippi vs. San Francisco (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 66.195; San Francisco 53.204
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 13; 141
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 8; 145
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-8); Under

Game 821-822: Indiana State vs. San Diego State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 55.086; San Diego State 66.666
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 11 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 9 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-9 1/2); Under

Game 823-824: East Tennessee State at Hawaii (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State 45.492; Hawaii 55.604
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 10; 135
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 8 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-8 1/2); Over

Game 825-826: Arizona vs. Miami (FL) (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 70.801; Miami (FL) 68.819
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 141
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+3 1/2); Over

Game 827-828: Mississippi Valley State vs. CS-Bakersfield (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi Valley State 40.108; CS-Bakersfield 49.618
Dunkel Line: CS-Bakersfield by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Bakersfield by 9
Dunkel Pick: CS-Bakersfield (-9)

Game 829-830: North Florida vs. Georgia Southern (6:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Florida 50.531; Georgia Southern 47.855
Dunkel Line: North Florida by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: North Florida by 2
Dunkel Pick: North Florida (-2)

Game 831-832: Bradley vs. Portland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 58.246; Portland 50.577
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 7 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Bradley by 6; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (-6); Under

Game 833-834: Virginia Tech vs. Colorado State (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 58.996; Colorado State 64.705
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 5 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 4; 141
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-4); Under

Game 835-836: Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 40.141; Central Michigan 46.929
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 7
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+8 1/2)

Game 837-838: Nebraska at UTEP (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 56.025; UTEP 59.051
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 3
Vegas Line: UTEP by 5
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+5)

Game 839-840: IUPUI at Ball State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 42.054; Ball State 53.730
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Ball State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-9)

Game 841-842: Siena at Fordham (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 44.963; Fordham 52.767
Dunkel Line: Fordham by 8
Vegas Line: Fordham by 7
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (-7)

Game 843-844: St. Mary's at Northern Iowa (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 62.470; Northern Iowa 64.400
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+2 1/2)

Game 851-852: New Hampshire at Penn State (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Hampshire 47.155; Penn State 51.930
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 5; 128
Vegas Line: Penn State by 6; 123
Dunkel Pick: New Hampshire (+6); Over

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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9ers at SeahawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle (9-5) enters this game on the heels of their 50-17 blowout win at Buffalo -- and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Seattle has played 11 of their last 12 games in the month of December. And while the 49ers are 5-2 on the road, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. San Francisco (10-3) comes into this contest following their 41-34 win at New England in game where they generated 383 yards of offense -- and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after accumulating at least 350 yards of offense. Additionally, the 49ers allowed a whopping 520 yards of offense in that one -- and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Take the Over in this one.

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What to expect: The two offenses might not explode in this game, but the potential is there for us to to see points scored in all three facets - offense, defense, and special teams. With that in mind, this total has quite simply opened too low. The Bears will bounce back off of three consecutive subpar offensive showings, with Matt Forte finding the end zone on the ground for the first time since Week 9 and Jay Cutler finding Brandon Marshall for another score. The Cardinals offense remains stuck in neutral, without a dependable quarterback to be found on their roster. But this isn't a team that has quit on the season. They responded following that beatdown against the Seahawks, and paced by a sudden return to form from Patrick Peterson in the return game, they'll hang tough at home against the Bears in this one. Larry Fitzgerald hasn't caught a touchdown pass since Week 9, but like Matt Forte, he'll answer the bell this week. The loser gets to 17 points, and we cash our ticket.

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Cincinnati vs. PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Playoff positions are on the line Sunday in Pittsburgh when the Bengals take on the Steelers in the second of their two matchups this season.
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It is do or die for the Steelers. Pittsburgh lost in overtime at Dallas last week which was its second straight loss as well as its fourth loss in five games. The Steelers dropped to 7-7 overall but they still control their own destiny. If they close the season at 2-0, they are in the playoffs and even if they go 1-1 they could still make it in however they cannot lose this game as they will be eliminated with a defeat. The division title is still a possibility but Pittsburgh needs help from Baltimore as well.
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The Bengals are currently in the sixth position and a win here and they clinch a playoff berth. A loss though would be a killer as they would have to defeat Baltimore next week as well as have Cleveland upset Pittsburgh. Winning here will not be easy though as Cincinnati has dropped five straight meetings against the Steelers including two blowout losses in Pittsburgh. The Bengals are playing well with a 5-1 record over their last six games but now the pressure really mounts.
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The Pittsburgh defense is ranked number one overall in the NFL, allowing just 273.3 ypg on the season. The Steelers allowed a season high 415 yards against the Cowboys last week after allowing fewer than 300 yards in eight straight games. That means it is bounceback time for that unit. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has not had success in his short career against Pittsburgh and he has a 72.0 rating with three touchdowns and three interceptions in December.
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Offensively, the Steelers need to commit to the running game which has not been very effective of late. The good news for the Steelers is they ran for more rushing yards than they have all season when they piled up 167 in a 24-17 victory at Cincinnati in the first meeting. The Bengals have improved their rushing defense but getting the run going early will be huge as Ben Roethlisberger will be able to set up play action and that is where he thrives the most even if he gets taken out of the pocket.
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The Steelers have not lost three straight games since 2009 and Roethlisberger has never lost three in a row. Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread and it falls into a great contrarian situation where we play against road teams after a win by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 118-73 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons.

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Cincinnati vs. PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game is the Steelers season. A loss here and they can kiss the playoffs good-bye. A win and they would control their own destiny. Those who have followed the AFC North closely the last couple years know all too well that Pittsburgh owns division rival Cincinnati. Fortunately for those waving Terrible Towels on Sunday, the Bengals will be the opponent at Heinz Field.
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The past three seasons have seen Pittsburgh go a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread vs. the Bengals. That includes a 24-17 win earlier this year. In those five losses, the Bengals have never finished within six points of the Steelers. Cincinnati also traditionally struggles against Baltimore, and that's pretty much been the story under Marvin Lewis. The Bengals just can't break through. Last year, they didn't beat a single playoff team. Their last four victories this season have come at the expense of Philadelphia, San Diego, Oakland and Kansas City, all of whom rank among the very worst teams in the league.
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Though they came up just short last week, losing at Dallas in overtime, Pittsburgh has been a very solid bet when off a loss. They've covered 11 of their last 14 in that role for coach Mike Tomlin and are also 8-1 ATS off an ATS loss. When off back to back losses, they are 13-5 ATS in the Tomlin era. I see Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger being overdue for a bounce back performance and a Steelers defense that is #1 in yards allowed reasserting itself against what is still a subpar Cincinnati offense. The Bengals relied on an Eagles implosion to win their last game. They shouldn't count on that happening here.

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NY Giants -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Okay champs, it's time to see what you've got under the hood! If ever there was a time for the Giants to show up big and flex their muscles that time is this sunday as they venture into Baltimore to butt heads with the Ravens. You are you going to trust here the most guys, Eli Manning or Joe Flacco. I know where I'll place my faith and that is with the guy who has proven it with the super bowl hardware, not once but twice, Eli Manning. Typically I would lean heavily toward the Ravens taking the field in the rare role of home dog and I am certain there will be many stepping up to the counters in Vegas doing exactly that. Well they very well may be correct but I am betting they are not. To be perfectly candid I seriously question just how good this Baltimore team actually is. They have been knocked off now three straight games and let's be real about this, it should have been four had it not been for the crazy ending in San Diego. I say we have some perception vs reality going on here with Baltimore. I know how enamored some guys are with trends and trust me, I do perform my due diligence. Try this one on for size. The Giants are a stellar 35-14 against the number on the road since the 2006 season as long as they are not favored by more than 3.5 points. This one clearly fits into that criteria. This won't be a real popular selection since the Ravens are at home but I say when the dust settles the defending champs will have made a huge statement and Baltimore's slide will have continued.

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PITTSBURGH -3 over Cincinnati
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Here’s where Pittsburgh gets well. They had no right being favored in Dallas and spotting 8-points upon Ben’s return vs. San Diego was mispriced as well. As a result, they’re being undervalued here. Big Ben was rusty upon his return against Sad Diego but was much better last week and will now play at home with those two under his belt.
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Bengals last four wins have been over Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers and Eagles. Despite some soft foes, the Bengals passing game has slowed down with Andy Dalton tossing just three touchdowns in past three games. The Steelers have owned the Bengals every year other than 2009. Cincy has proven time and time again they they still aren’t ready to take the next step, having lost their last nine meetings against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. This is the Steelers playoff lives and Pittsburgh should fare no worse than the 24-17 road win in Cincy back in week seven. Let’s also not forget Cincinnati’s win over Philadelphia 10 days ago, an ugly affair that the hapless Eagles handed to its visitor. Don’t expect same on this day.
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Chicago -5½ over ARIZONAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don’t expect lightning to strike twice as the unsuspecting Cardinals finally exploded for some points in 38-10 win over Lions last week. Thing is, it was against an unmotivated visitor that was officially knocked out the week prior and then had to make the long trek to the desert. Arizona also needed to respond to the previous week’s humiliating 58-0 loss to Seahawks. The situation this week is much different.
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The Bears have gone from leading the NFC North for most of the year to now having a very realistic chance of missing the playoffs. However, the Bears have lost to some quality teams after falling to the Packers, Texans, Niners and Seahawks. The Bears figure to be in a foul mood and couldn’t have asked for a better team to get right-sided against. The Cards’ home cover against Detroit was their only one in past five tries while the Bears have covered six of past eight as road faves. Aside from trends, Arizona has a woeful offense that ranks dead last in both total offense and in rushing yards. Even in last week’s upset win, Arizona’s top receiver only had 37 yards on the day and it wasn’t the frustrated Larry Fitzgerald, who had four catches for 22 yards. The Bears figure to boost their downtrodden spirits here.
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San Diego +127 over N.Y. JETSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The irrelevant Jets get far too much media attention. Just like Monday night, the opportunity to exploit a weak number is again presented. The Jets have finally benched Mark Sanchez in favor of 2nd year QB Greg McElroy, who will get his first NFL start. Whether McElroy will be any good remains to be seen but the youngster is still being saddled with one of the saddest offenses in the league. McElroy, who is New York’s 3rd string QB, has thrown seven passes for 29 yards in his brief NFL career. Does that really warrant being favored over San Diego QB Philip Rivers? We think not.
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Worried about San Diego flying to an Eastern Time zone for early start? See Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Both offenses are mistake-prone and turnover machines but San Diego has a chance to get a decent game from the ultra-competitive Rivers. The Jets 30th ranked offence will likely stick to it’s infamous “ground and pound” which is more like “stop and drop”, in order to help McElroy game manage. This comedic price should have us laughing all the way to the bank.

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New England -14 over JACKSONVILLE
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The Jaguars have as much appeal as expired eggnog. Even though double-digit home underdogs have had great success, few have had the disparity that exists between these two. Jacksonville can’t score while Patriots can inflict damage to Jags porous defense. The posted total of 48 gives us even greater security, as one has to figure the Patriots will be the squad putting up the points.
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The home loss to the 49ers tarnished the Patriots image after appearing so dominant against the Texans the previous week. The Jaguars figure to bear the brunt of that loss, as Bill Belichick is rarely satisfied with marginal wins over subpar clubs. He’s been known to run up scores, showing no mercy to anyone. We’ve seen the Patriots up four TD’s in the fourth quarter with Tom Brady continuing to air it out. This is not a mid-season game where teams may not be as bad as they’ve appeared. We’ve seen enough of the Jags to know that they will have a hard time keeping pace here against a strong offensive team that remains motivated. No units risked.
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Tennessee +12½ over GREEN BAY
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One team is good while the other is not. If only it was that simple. Green Bay happy to have clinched NFC North with big win over Bears last week. Perhaps they go a bit easier here, consciously or not, adding to the wrong side of their 6-5 mark against the spread (ATS) as double-digit faves.
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Tennessee’s miserable performance on Monday night over Jets still fresh in most bettors’ minds, leaving room for oddsmakers to inflate the price here without much concern for exposure. The Packers had two similar games earlier this year when they were still fighting for playoff position and didn’t perform admirably, beating Jacksonville by just nine and Cardinals by 14 in a game that was 24-17 late in the third. Also note the projected -20 degree weather and snowfall doesn’t bode well for spotting near two converted TD’s. No units risked.
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Buffalo +4½ over MIAMI
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Miami won and covered as a 7-point favorite over the abysmal Jaguars last week. Not exactly bragging material. It was only the third time Miami has been favored this year, not only failing to cover in other two but losing both straight up. And do you really want to be sporting points with this offense? Ryan Tannehill has only passed for 10 touchdowns this year. He remains more of a game manager with most of his games being below 200 yards. He only completed 14 of 28 for 141 yards and one score in the Buffalo meeting during week 11. Miami has exceeded 20 points only twice in past seven games.
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Buffalo’s had another downtrodden season but they’re coming off that horrible effort last week against Seattle. We can easily give the Bills a mulligan for that game, playing a “home” game in Toronto where there is no atmosphere or motivation to perform well. What we’ve learned over the years that it’s rare for a capable team to not respond to a blowout loss. There really isn’t a lot that separates these two in terms of records and talent. Aside from last week’s cozy win over the Jags, the last time Miami won by this margin was way back in Week 8 when they beat the Jets 30-9. Miami covers against teams that cannot score. The Bills are not in that category. No units risked.
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KANSAS CITY +7 over Indianapolis
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As awful as the Chiefs are, still cannot spot this many road points with an Indianapolis team whose record is much better than they are. The Colts’ offensive line is in shambles and Andrew Luck’s poor completion rate over past few games doesn’t figure to get better until wounded return. We also can’t ignore the Colts turnover difference of -17 while seeing them outscored by 49 points on the season. Both numbers doesn’t coincide with a winning record and the only reason the Colts are over .500 is because of a couple of freebies and some last second heroics on numerous occasions.
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The Chiefs turn the ball over far too often as well. There really is no crystal ball in the world that can predict which team will suffer more turnovers here. However, getting a full touchdown with hometown KC side, we can still prosper here even if it isn’t the Chiefs. With Indianapolis’ poor road play and Andrew Luck’s deteriorating numbers, we’ll buy low on a team whose stock is at a low point. No units risked.
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New Orleans +2½ over DALLAS
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Yes, the Cowboys need this game desperately for playoff participation but when has that ever had them performing accordingly? The Saints defense is quietly improving, holding the Niners, Falcons and Giants to all under 260 passing yards. The Bucs exceeded 260 yards but much of it came in garbage time when trailing last week throughout their 41-0 stomping to the Saints.
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The Cowboys have been inconsistent in pass defense this year, specifically down the middle. With Drew Brees in a bit of groove right now and all the weapons he has available, New Orleans is sure to put up some points. Dallas has the ability to respond as Tony Romo has been gold at home but when it all comes down to it, Dallas has shown a propensity for making game changing mistakes at the worst of times. Until we see that changing, we’re not prepared to endorse them when spotting points to a dangerous club. No units risked.
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PHILADELPHIA -6½ over Washington
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It’s easy to side with the red-hot Redskins on their five-game wins streak, especially when facing an Eagles team that has won once in past 10 tries. Washington’s appeal is even greater with RGIII back from injury and it’s also a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6.
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Still, this is a lot of points for a divisional road favorite to be spotting one of its biggest rivals. These NFC rivalry games have a long history of being the fiercest and most competitive in the league. The Eagles are playing for pride and for jobs next season. Nick Foles has shown he’s capable of performing well and Bryce Brown can be very menacing when he doesn’t put the ball on the ground. Lastly, the Redskins defense can be had. They’ve allowed almost as many points as the Eagles and will now play a late season road game under some heavy pressure for the first time in a long time. The Eagles figure to show up here, at least giving their demanding fans something to cheer about in Philly’s last home game. No units risked.
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TAMPA BAY -3 over St. Louis
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Losers of four straight, the once steam rolling Bucs have derailed and it was capped off by them getting trounced last week in New Orleans. However, three of the four losses came against some offensive juggernauts in Denver, Atlanta and the aforementioned Saints. And it’s not like another formidable foe is stopping by for a visit. The Rams have a limited offense with their deficiency of skill position players. Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ran roughshod over St. Louis last week, and now the Rams will face rookie RB Doug Martin, who's third in the NFL with 1,647 yards from scrimmage.
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Have to like the Buccaneers here in their final home game coming off a spanking. The betting public is down on the Bucs, having failed to cover in past three weeks but that has allowed for this price to be discounted. We’ll gladly take advantage. No units risked.
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N.Y. Giants -2½ over BALTIMORE
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Both are troubled right now but oddsmakers seem to think the Ravens more so after installing the Giants as road favorite’s here. We tend to agree. The Ravens are on a three game losing streak, dumped their offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and then lost even worse to the visiting Broncos. The offense looked no better with Joe Flacco completing only 20 of 40 passes and Ray Rice being used sparingly. Baltimore is scrambling on both sides of the ball and the disarray is evident.
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The Giants are 4-1 after a loss and none was worse than last week’s 34-0 shamer. That loss dropped them into a three-way tie in the NFC East and currently there are four teams tied for two wild card spots. Any loss is a bad loss now for the reigning Super Bowl champions but this is a well-coached team that is at their best when backs are against the wall. Expect another response. No units risked.
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HOUSTON -7½ over Minnesota
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Vikings continue to ride the very large shoulders of RB Adrian Peterson. Can it continue here? While AP appears unstoppable, Minnesota cannot rely on their star to provide all of its offense when facing teams with scoring ability. The Vikings literally have no passing game anymore. There is no one worth covering even if Christian Ponder could get the passes thrown accurately, which is apparently not a realistic expectation. The Vikes have had a decent year and remain in the playoff hunt but they are much better in their own dome, as they have just two road wins at Detroit and St. Louis.
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Texans are 5-2 ATS at home. Knowing that a win here means week 17 will not matter to them, the Texans will give their final home game a full effort. The only way this game remains close is if Adrian Peterson can have yet another big day against Houston’s stellar run defence (5th ranked, 93.4 yrds per game). Vikings’ charmed life gets put to rest. No units risked.
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Cleveland +13 over DENVER
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Fading the streaking Broncos is a dangerous proposition these days but an abundance of points being offered to the Brownies leaves us no choice. After three consecutive weeks as chalk, Cleveland is back to being an underdog, where it is most profitable including an 8-2 ATS mark as a double-digit doggie.
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The Broncos are certainly in danger of being a little too complacent. Some playoff seeding is at stake but they close out the season against the pitiful Chiefs and after some tougher games, it is human nature to let up somewhat. Knowshon Moreno has picked up the running game with 100 yards in two straight and scoring in both. The need for Manning to produce points has declined and with playoffs looming, we expect Manning to pull in the reigns a bit. No units risked.
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SEATTLE -102 over San Francisco
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Both at top of their game but prefer to side with home cookin’ Seahawks facing a 49ers team that had exhausting affair with Patriots in a rainy Foxboro on Sunday night. If the past is any predictor of the future, it should be noted that when Seattle visited San Fran in Week 7 and lost 13-6, it was also a week after the Seahawks defeated the Patriots but that was on just three days rest. Seattle now has a full week to prepare.
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When we think of high octane teams, the Seahawks rarely come to mind but they enter this one off back-to-back games with 50 points or more. Despite the weak opponents that allowed the outpour, the Seachickens have to be feeling plenty good about their offense and even better playing at home in front of a crazed crowd, where they’re a perfect 6-0 on this field while outscoring unwelcomed guests by a 181-69 count. Additionally, the Seahawks have barely broken a sweat in consecutive weeks while the Niners are coming off four consecutive closely fought games. No units risked.

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Cleveland Browns at Denver BroncosFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Denver BroncosFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winning 9 straight gives Denver a chance for a bye in the first round of the AFC Playoffs. Their offense has topped 30 points in 7 of the 9 wins. Peyton Manning is once again in the MVP race. The QB has a 67.9% CR, 4016 YP, and a 31/10 TD/INT ratio. Knowshon Moreno has filled in nicely at RB, rushing for 391 yards in four games. The stop-unit has allowed just 17.7 PPG in their L9. Their quick LB corps will add to the squads 42 sacks against the inexperienced, Brandon Weeden. Cleveland's ball-carrier, Trent Richardson has only 70 YR in the L2 games and must line up against the NFL's #2 "D" vs. the run. The 5-9 Browns are totally out-matched here. Take Denver.

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Houston Texans -7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While the Texans are sitting comfortably on top the AFC standings at 12-2, they still have some work to do in order to secure a first round bye. They lead the Broncos (11-3) by just one-game and the Patriots (10-4) by only two. Due to the fact that they beat Denver in the regular season, they would lock up a first round bye with a win over the Vikings. A loss against Minnesota and the Texans could be faced with having to beat the Colts on the road in the final week of the season. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Texans are going to do everything in their power to win this game.
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With the Vikings huge win at St Louis and the incredible run that Peterson is having, you have to believe that Minnesota is a little overvalued right now. The Vikings have lost five games this season by at least 9-points, four of which have come in their last seven games.
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If Houston can simply slow down Peterson and not allow him to break off one of those 50-yard touchdowns runs, the Vikings could find it very difficult to score against the Texans. Peterson’s success on the ground has covered up some very poor play from starting quarterback Christian Ponder. If the Texans can get up early and force Minnesota to abandon the run, they should be able to take advantage of Ponder and a Vikings offense that is playing without their top playmaker at wide receiver in Percy Harvin.
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Minnesota is just 2-10 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, while the Texans are a dominant 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last two seasons.

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Carolina Panthers -8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers have underachieved this season but don't expect them to take their foot off the gas pedal now that they have it going. They followed up a double-digit win over the NFC-leading Atlanta Falcons with a 31-7 victory over the San Diego Chargers last week. Look for them to deliver a third straight double-digit win over an Oakland team that has struggled on the road.
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The Raiders are 1-5 on the road this season and have lost their last two road games by 35 and 24 points, respectively. Four of their road defeats have come by 22 points or more.
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Cam Newton is in a groove and should have little trouble taking advantage of an Oakland stop unit that ranks dead last in scoring defense with 28.7 points allowed per game and 25th in total defense with 370.8 yards allowed per contest.
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Newton has an NFL-best 113.1 passer rating over the last four weeks and has thrown nine touchdowns with no picks during this span.
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Carolina is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the second half of the schedule the last three seasons versus poor teams that carrying a winning percentage of 25.0 to 40.0 percent. The Panthers have won these games by an average score of 31.5 to 16.7. Lay the points.

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Chicago Bears vs. Arizona CardinalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by five or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. As you may recall, I played Arizona last week as a 10* play and correctly predicted their upset bid of the Detroit Lions. In the same fashion and given the simulator projections, I like making this a combination play using a 7* amount on the line and a 3* amount using the money line. The sim shows a high probability that Arizona will hold Chicago to 5.0 to 5.5 total yards per play. In past games, where Arizona has achieved this measure of success, they are 3-0 ATS this season, and 9-1 in games played over the past three seasons. I will provide greater in depth research and matchup analysis as the week progresses.

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Saints vs. CowboysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 51½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cowboys need this win and the offense should be able to deliver points vs. what is still the worst defense in the NFL. The Saints will not show any quit and we know they have one of the better offenses in the league. The Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 home games. The Over is 7-1 in Saints last 8 vs. a team with a winning record and is 8-2 in Saints last 10 games following a S.U. win.

Accuscore

San Diego Chargers +127 at New York Jets

AccuScore projects the Chargers as basically 50/50 this weekend going up against the Jets and new starting quarterback Greg McElroy. San Diego wins 50.7 percent of simulations outright, but the +127 money line translates to just a 44 percent implied probability. This line is probably a result of people expected the Jets to get a big emotional boost from finally benching Mark Sanchez. That might be possible, but McElroy isn’t exactly an exciting young QB prospect, and the Jets still aren’t a very good offensive team otherwise having scored 38 total points over the last 3 weeks. This is a pretty good value spot.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Over 39 Points

Simulations project an average of 43 total points in this game. I think this total is relatively low because these are two of the best defenses in the NFL in a rivalry game with Seattle having that great homefield advantage. Seattle however has scored 108 points in the last two games while the Niners have scored 68 points the last two weeks. Both teams are putting up points in bunches, and have shown big plays can be made by both special teams and the defenses to set up scores. I think this will happen at least once on Sunday which should be enough to get to 40 total points in my opinion. The Over occurs in 60.9 percent of simulations.

St. Louis Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Rams are a surprising 5-1 ATS on the road this year while the Bucs are 3-3-1 ATS at home (compared to 6-1 ATS on the road themselves). The Bucs have lost their last four games hitting bottom last week getting shut out 41-0 to New Orleans. The Rams are not a great team by any means, but the team is playing hard under Jeff Fisher and the defense is playing pretty well ranking 9th in passing yards against and 16th in passing yards against.