Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. PhiladelphiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We had high hopes for Andy Reid’s team, so much so that when they started going bad, we tried to pull ‘em through – and got kicked repeatedly for our trouble, cracking a few ribs and taking some teeth along the way. But as awful as the Green Birds played last Thursday in their meltdown against Cincinnati (actually blocked one of their own punts), it’s easy to forget Philly covered its two previous outings. Not so easy to forget is that 31-6 humiliation the Eagles were forced to endure at FedEx Field five weeks ago in RGIII’s coming-out party. We guarantee, to a man, that Philadelphia hasn’t. Tough to properly handicap this matchup as Griffin’s questionable status will once again keep this game off the board until his situation is confirmed. Backup QB Kirk Cousins filled Griffin’s big shoes with flair in last week’s 38-21 decision over Cleveland but Washington is in a tough spot here, standing 0-7 ATS off back-to-back wins versus a division opponent off a double-digit loss. Even though he’s worn the look of a man suffering severe gastrointestinal anguish for most of the season, Reid still owns a 19-8 ATS mark as a dog in regular season play from Game Thirteen out, and he’s guided his team to five covers in the Eagles’ six most recent Last Home Game scenarios. The BIGGEST problem in taking the easy way out here is Washington’s Mike Shanahan and his 5-19 ATS failure as chalk in games off a SU dog win in his NFL career, including 0-9 ATS in division games. We’re not fading that, not in a revenge-fueled rivalry game where the Eagles can seriously damage the Redskins’ playoff hopes. Once more into the breach. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.
Chris ElliottFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. ArizonaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I was an easy winner last Sunday with my Free Play as I attacked the low Total of the Vikings/Rams game, taking the Over and cashing by 17 points. This week I am tackling the low Total of the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, playing in the friendly confines of U. of Phoenix Stadium in sunny Glendale Arizona. Bears road games have averaged 45.7 PPG while Arizona scored 38 points last week at home.
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The Chicago Bears are 8-6 on the season after losing 5 of their last 6 games with their daunted defense struggling during that stretch, giving up 20.0 PPG along the way. Top LB Brian Urlacher is out for the season while top interior pass rusher DT Henry Melton is out Sunday as well. Starting CB Tim Jennings is doubtful after not having practiced all week while top defenders CB Charles Tillman (shoulder) and LB Lance Briggs (knee) are banged up but will play. With the team mired in their worst slump of the season, top WR Brandon Marshall was very vocal, stating that all players are accountable, "even if that means jobs."
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The Cardinals have really struggled on offense of late with a 3 way QB carousel in the works. Rookie QB Ryan Lindley got the nod last week, and although he struggled passing the ball, he was able to move the offense down field in a big 38-10 home victory. Bears games have gone "Over" in 7 of 14 games this season while this current Total is their 2nd lowest of the season. The Cardinals games have gone "Over" in 4 of their last 6 games including back to back home games.
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I was an easy winner last Sunday with my Free Play as I attacked the low Total of the Vikings/Rams game, taking the Over and cashing by 17 points. This week I am tackling the low Total of the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, playing in the friendly confines of U. of Phoenix Stadium in sunny Glendale Arizona. Bears games average 40 PPG while Cardinals games average 37.6 PPG with the current projected Total sitting at 36.5 PPG. Bears road games have averaged 45.7 PPG while Arizona scored 38 points last week at home with rookie QB Ryan Lindley under center. Take a look at the "Over" in this game.
Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. PhiladelphiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lem Banker-motivated contrarian influence in my weekly handicapping exercise alerts me to use some caution as the number inflates on red-hot Washington. But there’s another school of thought—to trust the “eye test” and the indicators that the Redskins (who have won and covered their last five) aren’t about to slow down with the playoff carrot suddenly within sight. RG III likely back in fold this week. But Mike Shanahan’s troops proved last week they could win with backup Kirk Cousins at the controls vs. the Browns. The contrarian angle is about the only argument for the Birds, now 0-7 vs. the line at Linc TY!
Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh "owned" Cincinnati for the final 2 1/2 quarters of this season's first meeting. The Bengals began the game by running the ball continuously over the right side of their offensive line ... at the left side of the Steeler defense. Pittsburgh DC Dick Lebeau allowed this to happen until midway through the second quarter, then made the adjustments and the rest was history. The Bengals, who had led 14-3, managed just 185 yards of total offense for the game and the Steelers finished with a 24-17 win. Pittsburgh has had more than their share of injuries and distractions in 2012, but after last week's loss to Dallas, I expect the Steelers to bounce right back in the win column in what amounts to "must win" time. While "must win" doesn't equate "will win" with most teams, I believe it will in Pittsburgh's case. Back to the first meeting of the season, let's not forget that the Steelers were missing several starters, including two on the offensive line, yet still kept the Bengals at bay, and held the ball for 37 minutes of action. And without Polamalu, the Steelers held Andy Dalton to 14 of 28 passing for 105 yards. The Steelers present matchup problems for the Bengals and I expect them to continue. I'm recommending a play on Pittsburgh as they look to make it 6 straight wins and covers over Cincinnati.
Chip ChirimbesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The problem here is that this is not your normal rendition of the Pittsburgh Steelers. If it was we could lay any number and then watch them destroy the Bengals, but 'this' Steelers team has something missing. Maybe it's the injures or suspensions but they are NOT the same. Now, that isn't to say that they can't win because they certainly can and will here today. It's just some thing Pittsburgh does in beats Cincinnati whenever they are challenged. This is such a 'big' game for the Bengals as they can not only knock out the Steelers with a win but it also gets them into the playoffs. Pittsburgh has dropped four of their last five but still have the number one defense to go along with nine straight series wins.
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Oakland Raiders +9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raiders put an end to a six-game losing streak with an impressive 15-0 home victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last week. They put together their most complete win of the year by outgaining the Chiefs 385-119 for the game. That victory showed that they aren’t going to quit on the season.
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Oakland features one of the better offenses in the NFL. It ranks 12th in the league in total offense at 360.7 yards per game. It just recently got back Darren McFadden from injury, and he’s getting stronger with each game. McFadden rushed for 110 yards in that win over Kansas City.
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Carson Palmer is having a great season at quarterback. He’s a big reason why the Raiders rank 7th in the league in passing offense at 270.9 yards per game. Palmer should have his way with a Carolina defense that is allowing 271 passing yards per game and 67.6 percent completions at home.
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The Panthers are simply overvalued heading into this game due to winning their last two contests. They topped Atlanta 30-20 at home before going on the road and knocking off a San Diego team that has quit by a final of 31-7. Sure, those two wins were impressive, but with them come expectations from oddsmakers that Carolina cannot live up to.
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This play falls into a system that is 83-46 (64.3%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games. Bet the Raiders Sunday.
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Oakland Raiders at Carolina PanthersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Carolina PanthersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland really up against here they must travel and play early in the east coast time zone. Dont forget Raiders have been horrid on the road 1-5. Carolina on the upswing have won 3 of 4. QB Newton really rolling starting to roll now.
Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Bills at Miami DolphinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Buffalo BillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of AFC East teams that are out of any playoff races. Buffalo has a fine offense, second in the NFL in rushing with 139.6 yards per game. These teams met last month and Buffalo won 19-14 holding Miami to 184 total yards and a 2-to-1 edge in yards rushing (120-60). The Dolphins are 9-30-1 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play the Bills!
Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Pittsburgh SteelersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It is do or die for the Steelers. Pittsburgh lost in overtime at Dallas last week which was its second straight loss as well as its fourth loss in five games. The Steelers dropped to 7-7 overall but they still control their own destiny. If they close the season at 2-0, they are in the playoffs and even if they go 1-1 they could still make it in however they cannot lose this game as they will be eliminated with a defeat. The division title is still a possibility but Pittsburgh needs help from Baltimore as well. The Bengals are currently in the sixth position and a win here and they clinch a playoff berth. A loss though would be a killer as they would have to defeat Baltimore next week as well as have Cleveland upset Pittsburgh. Winning here will not be easy though as Cincinnati has dropped five straight meetings against the Steelers including two blowout losses in Pittsburgh. The Bengals are playing well with a 5-1 record over their last six games but now the pressure really mounts. The Pittsburgh defense is ranked number one overall in the NFL, allowing just 273.3 ypg on the season. The Steelers allowed a season high 415 yards against the Cowboys last week after allowing fewer than 300 yards in eight straight games. That means it is bounceback time for that unit. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has not had success in his short career against Pittsburgh and he has a 72.0 rating with three touchdowns and three interceptions in December. Offensively, the Steelers need to commit to the running game which has not been very effective of late. The good news for the Steelers is they ran for more rushing yards than they have all season when they piled up 167 in a 24-17 victory at Cincinnati in the first meeting. The Bengals have improved their rushing defense but getting the run going early will be huge as Ben Roethlisberger will be able to set up play action and that is where he thrives the most even if he gets taken out of the pocket. The Steelers have not lost three straight games since 2009 and Roethlisberger has never lost three in a row. Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread and it falls into a great contrarian situation where we play against road teams after a win by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 118-73 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons.
Harry Bondi
NY Giants / Baltimore Over
It was way back in September when we announced in one of our Handicapper's Notebooks that the Ravens defense was one of the most overrated units in the league and sure enough it has gone on to be just that. Heading into today's game, Baltimore and all of its big-names on defense are ranked 26th in the NFL in total defense and 31st in the league against the run. That's exactly the kind of defense Eli Manning can thrive on because a healthy running game will help set up the play-action deep pass. The problems on defense, coupled with that fact that the Ravens are averaging 31.6 points per game at home, have helped Baltimore go over in six out of seven games on this field this year. Look for much of the same today. Play the over.
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Cleveland vs. DenverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I love the Peyton Manning comeback story as much as everyone else but I am still thinking the Broncos are slightly overrated here to favoured by so much over a team has had some success this year.
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The Browns come in with a 5-9 SU record and off a loss the Washington Redskins. I feel the Browns are a little underrated as they have quietly won three of the last four games.
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Cleveland has quietly been a profitable 7-5 ATS this year. In the one game where the Browns were over 10 point underdogs, they have covered. The Browns have been just about every game this year and are perhaps the best team that are under .500 for their season record.
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The Broncos are no doubt one of the best teams in the AFC this year, however I think the spread a little large here and the Browns are good enough to give Denver a run on their home turf.
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Look for rookie running back Trent Richardson to be a player for the Browns. Richardson has rushed for 11 touchdowns this year and 879 yards. Cleveland has a passing game that moves the ball in QB Brandon Wheedon and receivers Josh Gordon and Greg Little.
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Denver is 0-1 ATS when faced with the task of covering a spread of more than 10 points.
David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. HoustonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota is 8-6 SU and 6-7-1 ATS; it's won two in a row including a 36-22 victory at St. Louis as a 1 point underdog last week. RB Adrian Peterson is having a career year, leading the league with 1,812 rushing yards on 289 carries. Last week he had 212 yards.
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Amazingly, Peterson can break Eric Dickerson's single season record of 2,105 yards with just another 294 over his next two games.
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His team holds the final NFC Wild-Card spot, and will be looking to hold on to it with another big effort.
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Note that the Vikings are 5-3 ATS as an underdog.
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Houston is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS; it won 29-17 over Indianapolis as a 10.5 point favorite last week.
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The Texans, who own the fifth ranked run defense will face their stiffest test of the year.
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And Houston's prolific offense looked pretty mediocre last week; after it scored a TD in the first quarter, it would then tally just four field goals the rest of the way.
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It's interesting to note that the Texans are in fact just 1-2 ATS off a win vs. a division rival.
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Behind a steady dose of the run, I believe the Vikings can control this clock long enough, and keep this one close enough to sneak away with the ATS cover with the large spread they've been afforded in this one!
Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: New England PatriotsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Road favorites of 10 or more off a straight up and spread loss are 15-0 straight up and 12-3 ats. The Patriots are 8-0 ats after allowing 28 or more. Chad Henne for the Jaguars has lost and failed to cover in 10 of his last 11 starts. This is a lot of points to lay on the road, which is why this is the free play and not unit rated, However, considering what the Patriots do on the road and the margins they have won by vs better teams this may be an easy win and cover against a Jacksonville team that cant score and may have thrown in the towel, or will if their down double digits come the second half. Rather have the Pats pouring it on as opposed to hoping the Jaguars can keep it close. Take the Patriots.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cincinnati BengalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If you look at trends there is no way you can make this pick. The Bengals haven’t beaten the Steelers since 2009 and have not covered in any of those losses...including earlier this year. But, who has the better running game, who has the better defense including a fearsome rush, who has the momentum coming into this one. The answer to all of these questions is the Bengals. They are looking to punch their ticket for the playoffs with emphatic fashion and I think they will do it. Probably the best game of the daytime card.
Red Dog SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas CowboysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Dallas CowboysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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All we need is for the Cowboys to win by about a field goal at home. Dallas is battling Washington and the NY Giants for the NFC East. They have a QB (Tony Romo) with plenty of experience and solid receivers like Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin against a weak New Orleans defense that is out of playoff contention. The Saints do have Drew Brees at QB but they don't run the ball well and their defense has struggled all year. They lost coach Sean Peyton for the season and have had distractions like BountyGate. Take Dallas as small home favorites and let's hope that Romo doesn't make too many mistakes.