Dave Cokin
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Pick: Cleveland Browns
No one can accuse the Browns of tanking it even though they were long ago reduced to also-ran status. This team continues to play hard and they've been very competitive now for several weeks. An upset at Denver is likely too much to ask, but staying within the massive spread is a reasonable expectation. I'll grab the doubles with the Browns.
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Cincinnati +3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is one of the more meaningful games of the week as the loser is all but ousted from a shot at the Wild Card, especially if it's the Bengals who come up short as they seek to avenge an earlier loss to the Steelers. Pittsburgh will be in a foul mood after losing late at Dallas, their second straight loss. But whether that can translate into a win here is debatable as Cincy's lone loss in its last six games was by a single point to Dallas. The Bengals have played for more than a month, especially on defense. Getting more than a FG with a team playing as well as the Bengals are is very tempting, especially with their 5-2 SU road record which includes 3 outright wins as underdogs.
Bob Balfe
Giants -2.5 over Ravens
This is the time of the year that the Giants always excel. Last week they were embarrassed by the Falcons and you can bet they will be focused considering this is like a playoff game for them. This team is flying under the radar again and if they can get into the playoffs they have just as good a shot as anybody. The problem with the Ravens is their defense just not being elite anymore. If you look at their linebackers they mostly are all no names due to injuries. Flacco should struggle against the Gmen front four. There is a reason why New York is the favorites on the road. Take the Giants.
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Minnesota Vikings at Houston TexansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota VikingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The (8-6) Minnesota Vikings of the NFC North division will take on the (12-2) Houston Texans of the AFC South division in 2012 NFL action. The vikings are 2-0 Against The spread all time vs. Houston. Minnesota has covers their last 2 in a row ATS, but are only 1-4 ATS their last 5 NFL games on the road. The Texans are 3-2 ATS their last 5 at home and have clinched their division, while Minnesota chases a wild card spot. Minnesota gets the road cover.
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Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Steelers also come in off an overtime loss at Dallas last week, and since they are laying a field goal, we see some good value in taking the hungry road underdog that is simply playing much better football right now.
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These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now. Cincinnati has won five of their last six games while Pittsburgh has lost four of their last five games. The Bengals have a poor history against the Steelers, but this game is their best opportunity to notch a win over their division rival. Cincinnati lost the first meeting of the season 24-17, but the Steelers were much healthier for that game. Pittsburgh has a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball which have severely hampered their on field play. The Steelers also come in off an overtime loss at Dallas last week, and since they are laying a field goal, we see some good value in taking the hungry road underdog that is simply playing much better football right now.
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New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
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The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Seems to be a reach, but the Patriots simply want to come into JAX and get a win and on several occasions over the years, they play a vastly more conservative scheme on both sides of the ball simply to minimize any mistakes that could give the inferior opponent any hope of winning the game. The Patriots are not likely to be seeded higher than third in the AFC. However, wins today and over Miami combined with Houston losses to Minnesota and the Colts would give them them the Top seed. Evidence of their conservative play is noted by the fact that the Patriots are just 8-19 ATS when playing against a terrible team posting a win percentage of <=25% or less with the game taking place in the second half of the season since 1992. JAX is coming off a 24-3 loss at Miami, but are a solid 12-3 ATS after scoring 6 points or less last game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-35 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more with the game taking place in December. JAX has the worst run defense in the NFl and the Patriots will certainly be dedicated to giving Ridley a heavy dose of carries. Establishing the run will allow Brady more than ample time using play action to complete underneath routes and move the chains. For those fantasy players, I strongly believe Ridley could be one of the Top-3 point gainers today. This all seems like a positive sign for the Patriots, but with a scheme dedicated to the run, the clock will move quickly and the game shortened and this only gives JAX a chance to stay within two scores and continue to play hard. I like JAX to stay well within this number.
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Utah Jazz vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando MagicFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando has been playing pretty solid lately even though they got sidetracked last time out with a 3 point loss up in Toronto, so I'm comfortable taking them as a home dog to the Utah Jazz.
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It's no secret that the Jazz do not travel well and coming off a loss in Miami last night isn't going to do them any favors.
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The Magic played Utah fairly tight in Utah a few weeks ago, coming back in the second half to cover the spread as 8-point dogs. I think they match up well with the Jazz and should pick up the win at home here today.
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Green Bay -12.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't be too impressed with the Titans win over the Jets, 14-10, they gained just 294 yards but profited from a +5 Net TO margin. That means its "win home/MNF and travel" for a non-Playoff team in late December. Advantage Green Bay who is looking for a first round bye. In last week's 21-13 victory over Chicago, they outgained the Bears 391-190 running the football for 32/113. This has all the makings of an NFL blowout against the Tennessee defense that allows 28 PPG. This victory garners them home field through the Playoffs.
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Dallas -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Just a better team at home under a fall number of 3. I will lay it. Cannot trust the Saints defense on the road, and they have a lot less to play for. Dallas is finding ways to win, which is unusual because most of season they were finding ways to lose. Dallas run game should work here and look for Romo to have a good day. Should be lots of offense on both sides, better defense at days end wins games like these.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is now at 57-35-2 after hitting Bradley yesterday. Tonight I am playing the Under in the New York Giants-Baltimore Ravens contest in a 4:25 p.m. kickoff. We have a pair of physical teams that have been questionable, in my humble opinion, on offense of late.
And if you ask me, I say these two are going to get after it in the trenches and look to hit hard and put a hat on some folks in this one, keeping this one low.
New York has dropped four of six to fall into tie atop NFC East. If it wants any chance of getting into the postseason, it better be prepared to match the physical play of the Ravens. Eli Manning has won eight of last 10 starts against AFC foes, including Super Bowl play. But I don't think he's as much of the answer as the defense is, knowing the Giants have to stop the opposition and put Manning in a position to score points.
The Ravens have lost three straight, matching their longest skid under coach John Harbaugh. It’s Baltimore’s worst slide since a nine-game streak under Brian Billick back in 2007. This dismal run includes two straight home defeats following a 15-game win streak at home. Time for this team to get back to the basics if it wants to win - and that's with its defense.
The Ravens can clinch their second straight AFC North title with a win today, and make note Baltimore has won its last nine home finales and comes in with a perfect 9-0 mark at home under Harbaugh against NFC foes. I'm not endorsing this team, cause I can't seem to figure out week-in and week-out what the Giants are doing.
But I do think we'll see the Ravens' trademark D.
There are a bevy stats and trends supporting the under, but I won't get into that. I'm just siding on this one staying low.
2♦ UNDER Giants/Ravens
Chuck O'Brien
143-109 roll with the plays I'm giving away heading into today's selection on the Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Kansas City.
The Colts need one more win to clinch a playoff spot, and I don't believe they're going let off the gas once they get motoring at Arrowhead Stadium.
There is just too much to be impressed by with this team, and I don't mean in the same manner you'd be impressed by the 49ers, Falcons, Patriots or Packers. I'm talking about the simple fact they just might be the most remarkable story in sports this year.
A win today would secure a double-digit win season for a team that went 2-14 last season and endured an incredibly tumultuous offseason, not to mention its coach being diagnosed with leukemia.
In short, this team is a miracle.
So why would I not expect the Colts to swat a Chiefs team that is 2-12 (tied for the worst record in the league) but that looks more like 'thee' worst team in the league overall. Over the past two weeks the Chiefs are 0-2 and have been outscored 45-7, including being shut out 15-0 last week by the somewhat-equally hapless Oakland Raiders.
I love what quarterback Andrew Luck has done this season thus far, showing poise as the new offensive leader for a team that has only known the name Peyton Manning since 1998. Now it's Luck team, and he's doing a fine job, having rallied the team to victory six times in the fourth quarter, a rookie record and needing just 74 yards passing to break Carolina quarterback Cam Newton’s rookie record of 4,051 yards passing set last season.
And quite frankly once Luck gets his unit rolling, I don't see Kansas City keeping up. The Chiefs rank last in the NFL in scoring and have failed to score an offensive touchdown five times in 14 games. There's nothing good to say about it, really. Last Sunday in the loss to Oakland, the Chiefs had a mere 17 first-half yards and finished with 119 total, only 10 of which were on the ground.
I'm going to lay the chalk in this one, thinking we're going to see an offensive explosion from the Colts, and another stinker by the Chiefs.
3♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Craig Davis
I like the Cowboys and Saints to give us a LOT of points.
Dallas, surprisingly, has played better in December than past months... and it's usually the other way around. Normally they are leading the division entering this month before imploding down the stretch.
Not this year.
Why? Because they seem to have found their offense... and it doesn't hurt that Demarco Murray is back and healthy.
Dallas scored nearly 40 points vs. Washington and Philly before scoring 27 in an overtime win over the best defense in the league... the Pittsburgh Steelers... last week.
I'm not sure if it's just the addition of Murray in the backfield or not, but they aren't the same team that needed help at running back every week for two months while Murray recovered.
Tony Romo can move the ball down the field in a hurry... much like his counterpart today, Drew Brees.
Brees won't be breaking any records this year, and he probably won't be going to the playoffs, but he won't lay down either.
Brees is looking to pad his stats and will likely take some changes he normally would 't. Having said that, they'll still score points.
Dallas's defense isn't at good as they have appeared to be at times and they will allow some points to Brees and company, especially indoors where the weather will not be a factor.
Free play of the day on Dallas/New Orleans over the total.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the underdog Vikings as they play at Houston this afternoon.
Both teams need to win, as the Texans are looking for home-field advantage in the AFC, while the Vikes are looking to grab one of the two Wild Card spots come January postseason time.
Of course the sub-plot here also involves Adrian Peterson's attempt to set the NFL single-season rushing record. AD is sure to get his touches, and with him being a "home run" threat anytime he touches the pigskin, I have to like Minnesota's chances getting an extra score from the linemakers.
After opening the season with four straight covers as the favorite, Houston has only gone 4-4 their last eight tries when listed as the chalk.
Minnesota has won back-to-back games in the underdog role, and they have covered five of eight overall as the underdog for the year.
Give the Vikes a "puncher's chance" with Peterson gunning for the rushing record.
Take Minnesota plus the points.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
Last night I won my free pick on the Under in the Atlanta/Detroit game, as I told you it wouldn't get into the 50s. Today I'm telling you to play the Dallas Cowboys minus the points against the New Orleans Saints, as I think the Pokes are catching fire in the nick of time and just might be seeing the rainbow.
If the Cowboys can win out, they have a chance to make the postseason, and you can't ignore that kind of momentum. Today they'll host one of the worst defenses in the league, and that alone should be reason to believe the momentum is in their favor. I mean, I know New Orleans has the third-best offense in the league, but Rob Ryan's defense has been pretty damn good, and I don't think the Saints will have it as easy as they may think.
Tony Romo and company, that's a different story, as the eighth-best offense in the league - spurned by the fourth-best passing game - will explode against the overall worst defense in terms of ratings are concerned.
Yes, the team laced with bounty accusations now has the 32nd-ranked defense in the NFL. And don't get me wrong, though I know the Saints come in after their first shutout victory in 17 years, they're not going to be doing much against this inspired Dallas team that has now won three straight and five of six overall.
For all the Romo haters out there, make note with two games left, he has already set single-season team records with 379 completions and 568 attempts.
Let's lay the cheap number with the Cowboys today.
1♦ DALLAS
Matt Rivers
Sunday free play winner is the Colts as the road chalk over the Chiefs.
The once-proud Chiefs are just a bad, bad football team. This is a team that has been held to 16 points or less in nine of their last ten games. Not surprisingly, KC has won just once in that ten game stretch, and they are just 4-6 versus the spread in that span as well.
Into town come the Colts fresh off their loss at Houston, and Indy can control their postseason destiny with a win this afternoon at Arrowhead. The Colts have been a bit of a pleasant surprise this season, and Andrew Luck to road wins and covers in three of their last five away from Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis may not be going deep into the postseason this year, but they sure as hell are a much better team than Kansas City, so lay it on the road with the Colts as Indy gets the win and cover over the Chiefs.
4♦ INDIANAPOLIS