Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 25

Terron Chapman

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Play: Boston Celtics +4

Two Atlantic division rivals will kick-start the 2011-12 NBA season on Christmas afternoon when the New York Knicks play host to the Boston Celtics at Madison Square Garden. The last time these two met, the Celtics were completing a four-game playoff sweep of the Knickerbockers on their home floor, 101-89, for their eighth straight victory in the series.

Visit any NBA training facility this time of year and you’ll be greeted with clouds of optimism as all teams start with the same record: 0-0. However, talk to NBA sports betting players and they’ll tell you there are only a handful of NBA teams with a legitimate shot at winning the title. One of those teams figures to be the New York Knicks. The Knicks lacked the assets to land Chris Paul during the free agency period and decided to make a play for Tyson Chandler instead. Last season, Chandler took a Dallas defense that ranked 12th the year before, to a seventh ranked defense en route to a NBA championship. Knicks fans hope Chandler can do the same for their club although the task in the Big Apple appears to be more daunting than the one in the Big D. For starters, the Knicks were abysmal last season on the defensive end, ranking 28th in points allowed per game and 26th in opponents’ field goal percentage. If the Knicks are to see any improvement in these areas, their two stars will have to set the tone, which is asking a lot considering neither Stoudemire nor Anthony have shown a commitment on the defensive end. Chandler will definitely improve the Knicks defensively, but just how much they will improve remains to be seen.

The Knicks weren’t the only Atlantic division team to make a play for Chris Paul during free agency as the rumblings out of Celtics camp suggested GM Danny Ainge was willing to part ways with his All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo in exchange for Paul’s services. Ainge denied the report, and Rondo remains a Celtic as the C’s, led by Rondo and their Big Three will make what many figure to be their last run at a NBA title as the contracts of Garnett (age 35) and Allen (age 36) expire next season. The lack of a bench ultimately did-in the C’s last season and could once against rear its ugly head this season in a shortened 66-game season. The loss of Jeff Green for the season with a aortic aneurysm won’t help matters. But, as long as the Big Four remain healthy, the Celtics have as much of a shot as anyone in the Eastern Conference.

Despite the Celtics’ recent dominance in the series, the Knicks (-4) are currently listed as a four-point favorite in Sunday’s opener. The uncertainty of Paul Pierce (heel injury) has a lot to do with why the home team is listed as a favorite of more than a possession. However, even if Pierce can’t go, the Celtics should still prove to be a tough match-up for the host. The Knicks still have no answer for Rondo who in last season’s Game 4 clincher, tallied a Celtics playoff record, 20 assists. Pierce’s uncertainty is the only factor keeping us from releasing this as a premium selection. If Pierce can’t play, Doc Rivers is likely to go with Marquis Daniels in his place. Even still, look for the visiting Celtics led by Rondo to keep pace with a chance to steal one in the fourth quarter. Take the points at your sports book. Play on the Boston Celtics (+) the points for 1 unit.

Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Chicago Bulls +1

Tinsletown wouldn’t be such without a little drama and the hometown Los Angeles Lakers have had their fair share in the previous weeks leading up to Sunday’s season opener against the Chicago Bulls at Staples Center. A nixed deal for All-Star point guard Chris Paul which would’ve sent Pau Gasol to the Rockets, was followed up by a strange deal that sent the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Lamar Odom, to the Dallas Mavericks. A Kobe Bryant wrist injury, a new head coach in Mike Brown and Andrew Bynum missing the first five games due to suspension are just some of the storylines heading into their Christmas day match-up.

Just a couple of weeks ago it appeared as if the Lakers were a title contender on the verge of getting better. Now, it seems as though they are a team searching for an identity, which isn’t a good thing with the reigning League MVP Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls visiting town. Fresh off a league best 62 wins last season, the Bulls return mainly intact with an upgrade at the shooting guard position with the acquisition of Richard Hamilton. Hamilton will give the Bulls what many thought they lacked last season, a viable #2 scoring option behind Derrick Rose, particularly in the playoffs. Hamilton isn’t the player he once was, although his 20.6 ppg average in 120 playoff games is worth noting. And after a rough parting of the ways with his former team the Detroit Pistons, Hamilton should be both motivated and rejuvenated to be in Chicago.

These two split last season’s regular season series 1-1 with each team winning on their home floor. The Lakers have dominated the series of late winning seven of the last eight overall, and eight of the last nine at Staples Center. Kobe Bryant (wrist) says he’ll be ready to go and who are we to doubt him. But, what may be more concerning for the purple and gold faithful is the absence of Bynum (suspension) who appeared to be playing motivated in the preseason. Bynum’s absence leaves a gaping hole in the middle of a team that already lacked interior depth behind Bynum and Gasol.

This is a tough spot for the Lakers who have a lot going on around them as they prepare to play a condensed, 66-game schedule. The Bulls are definitely a legit title contender that should be motivated to not only breakthrough in LA for the first time in five tries, but should also be anxious to show that last season wasn’t a fluke. The odds suggest the Bulls are the better team and without Bynum in the lineup, we agree. Take the road team at the window. Play on the Chicago Bulls (+/-) the points for 1 unit.

Andre Gomes

Miami -4.5

On a first approach, this line of -4.5 points in favor of Miami is completely irrational, as the NBA champions will host the team that they have just defeated in the finals in 6 games a few months ago. If we add the so called home factor advantage, Dallas by no means should have been the underdogs, especially for a range bigger than one full ball possession.

However, I have the Heat to win comfortably this game and I would play them on a max line of 6 points in this contest. Why I'm so high in Miami in this contest can be factored in 3 different areas:

1) Motivational standpoint

This is the classic revenge factor where one team wants to avenge the loss suffered in the biggest stage a couple of months before. In theory the team that has lost works hard in the preseason with the feeling of winning it all, while the winner gets a bit cocky and relaxed. It might sound a bit square, but the truth is that we have some data backing up the Heat in this exact spot (Finals re-match game match game in the first day of the season): In the last 6 games on this spot, the Finals loser has gone 5-1 SU and 3-0-3 ATS and in the last 30 years, The Finals loser as an Away team is 10-5-3 ATS.

2) Physical factor

I've watched almost all preseason games and clearly the Heat are one of the teams in better physical condition for this beginning of the season! They simply ran over the Magic in both games of the preaseason! In the first game, Miami scored 22 fast break points and Orlando uses to be one of the best defensive teams in preventing transition teams in the league and in the second game, the Heat attempted 53 Free throws as the Magic couldn't match Miami's athleticism in attacking the basket.

On the other side, I remember reading an interview from Dirk Nowitzki where he said that he relaxed too much on vacation and this recent statement confirms exactly this: "I'm fine, nothing hurts,'' Nowitzki said. "The wind will come back, but it's definitely better than what it was two weeks ago when we started camp. I actually wasn't joking about the amnesty thing two weeks ago. That's how bad I looked. It's been some hard work the last two weeks, but I'm still obviously not 100 percent.''

Jason Terry played only 9 minutes in the preaseason, Jason Kidd just 18 minutes and Vince Carter 20 minutes! It's curious to notice that the Mavericks were dominated by OKC in the preseason in the same way that the Heat torched ORL's defense: in one game DAL allowed OKC to attempt 41 FT's and in the other game OKC had 21 FB points! To put it simply we are talking about one young team that is completely ready to start the season against a veteran team that is far from the best condition and in normal conditions, Dallas will burn out in this contest,

3) Matchups factor

This is the biggest reason why I'm high in Miami in here. In the finals, Tyson Chandler was the Mavericks quarterback of the defense, as his great help defending skills helped the Mavericks dynamic defense to rotate well and give James and Wade bad looks over the series. Replacing Chandler with Haywood brings a brutal change, as Haywood is nowhere near as good as a help defender as Chandler is. In fact, Haywood was completely outplayed by Perkins in the preseason games against OKC! Lamar Odom will must likely have major minutes and he can defend better after rotating, but he is a new face in the Mavs system and so, it will take some time to Odom to gel with the rest of the roster. Also DeShawn Stevenson is now in New Jersey and he was so important to stop the Heat dynamic duo that midway the series, coach Rick Carlisle decided to send Stevenson to the bench so at least Marion or Stevenson would be on the court to hold James and Wade. To replace him, the Mavs have now Vince Carter and Dallas is waiting for him to have the same defensive role that Stevenson used to have, then good luck for them as they'll need it... So, basically Dallas won't be able to defend Miami as well as they did in the Finals. On an offensive standpoint, Dallas will score their points as they still have a good ball movement and great shooters, but the defensive drop off will be just too much to overcome.

In my opinion, the combination of these three factors makes me believe that we have enough value in Miami to take them in this match and therefore, I'll take them on a single dime play as my first play of the season.

WUNDERDOG

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State
Pick: Golden State +5

The Los Angeles Clippers made big headlines with the addition of Chris Paul. They are getting a lot of publicity for their potential star-power and improvement and this betting line reflects that. While most "pundits" have already crowned them the new kings of LA, they have to earn that. How good are they really? We don't yet know. What we do know is that it is going to take some time for all these new parts to mesh, especially with a shortened preseason. And, thanks to all the hype, the lines on their games are likely to be a bit inflated as the public loads up on them. In fact, this is the most lopsided bet game on Christmas day with 85% jumping on LA. The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, 7-15 ATS in their last 22 against the Western Conference and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They begin the new season on the road and face a young, up-tempo Golden State offense. The Warriors won 36 games last season while scoring 103.4 points a night behind Monta Ellis, David Lee, Andris Biedrins and, when healthy, Steph Curry. The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Golden State. In addition, the home team is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these teams. The Clippers may turn out to be great but in the opener, I'm taking the home dog. Play the Golden State Warriors.

SPORTS WAGERS

GRREN BAY –12 over Chicago

For the Bears, Caleb Hanie is out and Josh McCown is in. Big deal. Jay Cutler’s worst break was not to his thumb but that this wasn’t a contract year for him. There was optimism that Cutler would be back for the playoffs. There was optimism that the Bears would actually be in the playoffs. There was optimism Sam Hurd would be satisfied with his overly generous contract and not feel compelled to start a drug enterprise on the side. The Packers won by 10 in Chicago way back in week three when the Bears were starting to come on. Chicago is now virtually out of this thing when they looked like a lock to make it just a month ago. That’s mentally draining and they’ll come in here knowing they have no shot of winning. Chicago has been useless since losing Cutler and now facing their arch-rivals, off their first loss, expect the Packers to roll here against a team they hate and will have no mercy for. Play: Green Bay –12 +100 (Risking 2 units).

BANG THE BOOK

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)

The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers square-off at Lambeau Field on Christmas night with each team looking for the gift of a victory in this classic NFC North rivalry. The kick-off is slated for 8:20 p.m. (ET) and Sunday night’s game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Chicago limps into this game with a four-game losing streak that has put its postseason plans in serious jeopardy. It is currently 7-7 booth straight-up and against the spread on the year and the total has gone ‘over’ in eight if its 14 games this season.

First the Bears lost a good portion of their passing game when Jay Cutler went down with a hand injury. Next it lost its ability to effectively run the ball when Matt Forte injured his knee. The result has been an offense that has scored a total of 47 points in the four-game slide. The normally solid Chicago defense is starting to crack under the strain; giving-up 38 points as a 3.5-point home favorite in Sunday’s loss to Seattle.

Green Bay’s quest for a perfect season came to an end this past Sunday with a shocking 19-14 loss to Kansas City as an 11-point road favorite, but it is still in prime position to lock-up the No.1 seed in the NFC playoffs at 13-1 SU (9-5 ATS). The total stayed well ‘under’ the 46-point line against the Chiefs, but it has gone ‘over’ in nine of its previous 13 games.

The main concern for the Packers heading into this game is avoiding any more injuries to a team that suddenly a bit banged up. They already lost wide receiver Greg Jennings and have a couple of gaping holes in the offensive line, so keeping players healthy has to be in the back of head coach Mike McCarthy’s mind.

The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and 3-3 ATS in their last six games on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of their last seven games.

The Packers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games, but 5-1 ATS in six games at home this season. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of their last eight games overall and in five of the six home games.

Green Bay handled the Bears 27-17 on Sept.25 as a four-point road favorite to win four of the last five meetings SU. It is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed ‘under’ in all seven games.

The Packers will do enough on Sunday night to secure a win, but with Chicago to hang in there long enough to cover with the 13 points.

PICK: Green Bay

Jim Feist

Bulls vs Lakers
Pick: Under

The Lakers had surely one of the more unusual offseasons in the NBA. It looked like the Lakers would be loaded this year with the likes of Chris Paul and Dwight Howard being courted by LA. However, the NBA nixed Paul coming to the Lakers and the Magic pulled Howard off the market. In the meantime, the Lakers dealt Lamar Odom to the Mavericks and find themselves getting long in the tooth and now with a hurting Kobe Bryant. Bryant looks to play tonight, but you have to wonder how his banged-up wrist is going to affect his outside shooting. You also have to wonder how happy center Pau Gasol can be, considering he was being offered as bait to bring Howard over. Meanwhile, the Bulls pretty much are in tact from last season, though they did add veteran Richard Hamilton to a very deep lineup. Hamilton finally gives the Bulls the threat of shooting guard and will likely make this club even better. I'm taking the UNDER though in this opening day contest. The Lakers are not a deep team, they are hurting both mentally and physically and this Bulls team could shut them down with their physical play. Go UNDER on Sunday evening.

EZWINNERS

Green Bay Packers -11

The Bears have scored only 47 total points since injured quarterback Jay Cutler was replaced by Caleb Hanie. Chicago is now making a move to quarterback Josh McCown this week out of desperation to try to get something going on offense and avoid a fifth straight loss. Chicago has been hit hard by injuries to Cutler first and then starting running back Matt Forte and now their leading receiver Johnny Knox. There is just not much explosiveness on the offensive side of the ball for the Bears right now and that is not a good thing when facing the Packers. Green Bay lost their first game of the season last week at Kansas City as the offense could not get on track, but I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to get things going once again. The Chicago defense is pretty solid, but the Green Bay offense will wear them down because I expect them to be on the field for the majority of the game. Green Bay is 4-0 against the spread following their last four straight up losses. Lay the points.

Dom Chambers

My free selection is on the Boston Celtics as road underdogs against the New York Knicks.

The Boston Celtics are underdogs and that is value you rarely see.

The New York Knicks have Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire. Both are average defenders. The Knicks did add Tyson Chandler.

But the Celtics still have the Big Three and Rajon Rondo. Rondo will have a bid day against the Knicks.

Chandler will add some defense to the Knicks, but he alone will not make them a good defensive team.

The Celtics can match the Knicks’ offense and getting points is too good to pass up.

The Celtics swept the Knicks in the playoffs and should keep this game close, if not outright win.

3♦ CELTICS

David Chan

Miami @ Dallas
PICK: Over

The Miami players will watch in silent horror as the title banner is raised to the roof in front of a frantic Dallas crowd on X-Mas afternoon; then they'll look to take out their frustrations on the Mavs and send a message to the rest of the league that they're back and ready for business this year.

It's funny; Miami is favored to win the Championship this year, and Dallas for the most part is an afterthought:

“We didn’t come together to make the playoffs or come together to win a playoff series, we came together to win the NBA finals and that’s what it’s about,” said a highly focused Lebron James. “We know how long of a journey it was to get there, so we know what it takes to get there. We just try to have a better result if we happen to get back to that point.”

The Mavs lost Tyson Chandler, which is obviously a huge blow to their defense; gone too are Caron Butler and JJ Barea; they did add reigning sixth man of the year winner Lamar Odom, who will look to provide a spark on the offensive end when called upon.

Miami is virtually the same team, but added veteran swingman Shane Battier.

The Heat want to embarrass Dallas on the national stage and in front of their home town crowd; the Mavs are out to prove that they are still the team to beat (note: while it's an entirely new season for each club, it's still significant to note that Miami saw the total go "over" the number in 35 of 66 non-conference games last season; Dallas saw it go "over" the number in 37 of 66 non-conference contests a year ago).

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number as we come down the stretch!

Scott Rickenbach

Boston @ New York
PICK: Boston +5

I will go short on the details here since I am releasing this on Christmas morning and this is the early game. Simply put, too much value is being put on the improvement of the Knicks and not enough respect is being given to a veteran Celtics team that is looking to make one more run at winning it all. Keep in mind, Boston swept New York right out of the NBA playoffs last season. Also, the Celtics did sweep the regular season series with the Knicks as well. Now, in the season opener this season Boston is a 5-point underdog as the bets on New York continue to flow in. I'll gladly grab the value with the underdog Celtics. Boston is known for defense and, even though the Knicks defense will be immensely helped by the addition of Tyson Chandler, this is still a "team game" and New York has to get their team defense to rise to a level it's never been at. I will believe that when I see it and I certainly don't expect to see that in Game One of a new season. Look for the Celtics to improve to 21-2 in their last 23 games games against the Knicks but, if the C's do fall short on the scoreboard look for the handful of points to be enough for the all-important cover. Consider a small play on Boston plus the points in Early Sunday NBA action!

Bobby Conn

Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Chicago Bulls -4

I was a little late jumping on this line or else it would have been a premium play at -2.5. The Bulls are one of the best defensive teams in the league and don't have a lot of new players coming in, so should be able to gel right away. The Lakers will be without Bynum, have a hurt Kobe Bryant, and without the services of sixth man of the year Lamar Odom who was traded to Dallas. Chicago makes a statement early with a big win in LA.

Steve Janus

Heat/Mavericks Over 187½

I look for the Miami Heat to try and really push the pace against the Dallas Mavericks tonight. While winning this game can't erase the feeling of losing the NBA Championship, it's a game the Heat desperately want to have. The Mavericks still have plenty of offensive weapons, but they lost their best defensive player in Tyson Chandler.

I believe the total has been set way to low in this matchup, as the oddsmakers know the public will assume this game will be a lot like what they saw in the Finals.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Heat last 10 games as a favorite and 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 games as a home underdog.

JR O'Donnell

UTEP -2.5

Members move to the UTEP crew today boys - the short # tonight. UTEP to play the Auburn Tigers in the Hawaiian Diamond Head tourney... We love Perez & Streeter here boys as the Miners will hand it to the Tigers and there former coach.. ( Tony Barbee). Looking hard at these 2 teams we will ride the veteran club here that makes free throws 70-of-87 free throws (.805) & plays tough man up D as in this classic the Miners have held opponents to 38.3 %.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami/ Dallas Under 188: The Heat last year were an excellent defensive team last year as they allowed just 94.6 ppg (6th) and 43.4% shooting (2nd) and this year should be no different, especially with the addition of Shane Battier. The Mavericks also had a fine year defensively as they allowed just 96 ppg (10th) on 45% shooting (8th). With the extra layoff i don't expect the teams to be too sharp offensively, while I expect the defensive intensity to remain. Let's also note that the Mavs were 18th in pace ratings, while the Heat were 20th in pace ratings last year at Basketball-reference. These teams will run on occasion, but it isn't part of their game plan. I look for a low scoring game here.

2 UNIT PLAY

New York/ Boston Under 191: Last year the Knicks had some defensive problems as they were 28th in the league in defensive points allowed (105.7 ppg) but the addition of Tyson Chandler will great improve this team at that end of the floor. Boston Always plays great defense and last year were #1 in the league in points allowed (91.1 ppg). I belive in game 1 here the pavce will be slow and both teams will shine at the defensive end.