SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago –4½ over L.A. LAKERS
When was the last time you saw the Lakers getting points at home? It’s been a long time and there’s a good reason for it. The Lakers are a middle of the pack Western Conference team and it could take them some time to get going. Lakers are learning a whole new system, which they did not have much time to prepare for and the effective triangle offense is a thing of the past too. After the trio of Bynum, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, the Lakers just can't compare to the conference's top teams and Bynum is suspended because of his actions in last year’s playoffs. Kobe Bryant is injured, although he’ll play, and he’s also going through a bitter divorce. Age has battered the Lakers' supporting cast, which is entirely too thin for a team with a payroll north of $80 million. The Bulls are very likely the second-best team in basketball. Chicago led the NBA in defensive efficiency last season when they won a league-best 62 games. Bulls remain intact from a year ago with only change being the addition of Rip Hamilton. Several young players likely will improve, including Joakim Noah and reserve bigs Omer Asik and Taj Gibson. Derrick Rose comes off an MVP season, but the exciting part is that he's still getting better. The Bulls should have a ton more continuity than the Lakers to open the year and should roll by a wide margin. Play: Chicago –4½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
OKLAHOMA CITY –8 over Orlando
The Magic are an interesting proposition this year. Everyone is anxious to predict doom and gloom for them because Dwight Howard, arguably one of the top three most dominant players in the league wants out. If Howard goes into Vince Carter-in-Toronto mode, the Magic will take a huge step backward. Right now, Vegas has "checked out" a big favorite over "dialed in." This, then, is a bit different from the 2007 example in which Kobe Bryant demanded a trade and then realized he had a really good team around him. In Orlando's case, Howard has a really good team almost entirely because of his own efforts. An unhappy basketball star can really check out and force a trade and that appears to be the way this thing is going. After the Thunder's unexpected trip to the Western Conference finals this past spring, their time appears to have come. The gap between Oklahoma City and the conference's top teams was relatively small last season. Although other teams have lost key contributors and suffered the effects of age, the rising Thunder kept their roster entirely intact before trading center Byron Mullens (85 minutes played all year) to Charlotte. Although Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook rightfully draw most of the attention, it's the youthful duo of third-year players James Harden and Serge Ibaka, both 22, that could make the difference for the Thunder as they continue to grow in the key roles they took over after Oklahoma City traded Jeff Green to the Celtics. The Thunder also get the benefit of a full season with a healthy, skinny Kendrick Perkins in the middle. Look out. Play: Oklahoma City –8 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
GOLDEN STATE +6/+210 over L.A. Clippers
The L.A. Clippers are this year’s version of last year’s Miami Heat in that everyone is telling them “they’re the new boss in town”. They’ve been hearing it for two weeks now and it’s fresh in their minds that all they have to do is show up and they’ll be the NBA’s most improved team with a chance to win it all. The positive is that nobody is stopping this offense in crunch time, not even Vinny Del Negro. The Hornets were the best crunch-time offense in the league with Chris Paul at the controls and now he's in L.A. with Blake Griffin as the dive man in the pick-and-roll and Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler and Ryan Gomes spacing the floor. Good luck guarding that. The downside is that there are just too many holes around CP3 and Griffin. The top wing defender right now is Randy Foye. That's a problem. More worrisome is the frontcourt. Gomes is the top reserve. As far as true big men go, you're looking at Brian Cook and Trey Thompkins, unless you'd rather look away, that is. Add it all up and the Clip Joint will be really good, because you almost have to be with Paul and Griffin together. However, their upside is limited by the lack of depth and they may not have the strength to overcome that. For the time being, it looks like another season of tremendously entertaining losing for the Warriors but they could easily win half of their games. Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis are still together in the league's most explosive backcourt. Much depends on how David Lee, Andris Biedrins and newcomer Brandon Rush performs but at least we know that the Warriors will put up a lot of points. It could take the Clip Joint a few games to get used to one another, much like the Heat last year and that provides us with a nice opportunity early in the year when the books are very aware that the whole world will be on them. Play: Golden State +6 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play: Golden State +210 (Risking 1 unit).
Chuck O'Brien
Now, let's get to the freebie for tonight, as I'm taking you to the latest game on the card, and will once again play a game involving Long Beach State, but this time will side against the 49ers. The other night I told you Long Beach State had every bit a right laying a stunningly big number it did, in Honolulu, to unsuspecting Long Beach State. After all, the Niners had already played: Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Boise State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina and Xavier, seven big-time college basketball teams.
Today I'm not so sure the oddsmakers have it right in making the 49ers a small favorite in this game, as I have a feeling Kansas State is going to take it to Long Beach State. I know the Niners have beaten Pitt, Boise and Xavier, but it's also lost to San Diego State by 4, to Louisville by 13, to Kansas by 8 and to North Carolina by 6.
So even though the Niners have proved they can ball with the best of them, they are beatable by better teams. And I think Kansas State is bettern than Auburn and Long Beach. Take the points in this one.
4♦ KANSAS STATE
Matt Rivers
The 49ers are on a mission to bring this Diamond Head Classic title back to California with them, and I will be backing them as the small favorite against the Kansas State Wildcats.
Long Beach may only be 7-5 compared to Kansas State's 9-1 mark, but the Niners have tangled with some mighty heavy-hitters early this season, as their non-conference schedule has included games against Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, and North Carolina! Playing the Wildcats in this championship game will not faze them.
K-State's 9-1 mark is beefed-up against a bunch of cupcakes, as wins over Maryland Eastern Shore, Charleston Southern, and North Florida doesn't exactly compare to the body of work the 49ers have logged already this season.
Long Beach State sports a 10-1 spread mark their last 11 games played on Sunday, and I see that mark bumping up to 11-1 with the win in tonight's title game versus Kansas State.
Take The Beach!
4♦ LONG BEACH STATE
Scott Delaney
Headed out to the islands tonight for your complimentary winner, and I'm going to lay the points with the Clemson Tigers over the Hawai'i Warriors. If this were the first game of the Diamond Head Classic, I might give the nod to the host school in this one. But three days in, I have to side with the Tigers in this one, coming from the better conference and with the better personnel.
While I know Hawaii boasts some size and will likely be looking to go right at the basket play with a physical presene in the paint, I think Clemson will be more successful in slowing down the clock and taking the high-percentage shots by working the ball around the perimeter, and playing a stringent defense at the other end.
The Tigers have a top 10 scoring defense that is allowing less than 55 points per game, and have speedy guards who can get to the ball and make it difficult for the Warriors to set things up.
And for those wondering about Hawaii's size, and if there is any issue on the boards, Clemson ranks 68th in the nation in rebounding margin; The Warriors rank 89th.
Yeah, I'll lay the points in this one.
2♦ CLEMSON
Jeff Benton
Your Christmas freebie is the over in the Bears-Packers contest.
I know that the last eight times these teams have faced one another, the under has been the play, but I have a strong feeling that tonight we are going to finally go over the total in a Bears-Packers meeting.
For one thing, the Bears will be starting Josh McCown, and it is not unreasonable to think that with 32 takeaways already to their credit, the Green Bay defense won't notch a few more to set up some short fields for the explosive Aaron Rodgers.
Speaking of Rodgers, he and his offense were limited to their lowest output of the season last week in their loss at Kansas City, as the Packers tallied only 14-points.
The total I am looking at is right around 42, and it is not unheard of for Rodgers to put up five or six touchdowns all by himself.
This one slips over the posted total to snap a string of eight straight series unders.
3♦ OVER
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with UTEP as the favorite over Auburn as they face-off in the 3rd place game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. This game caught my eye because we're seeing an 8-2 Auburn team as the dog against a 5-6 UTEP team. This is an immediate red flag, because as I've told you in the past, the oddsmakers don't make blatant mistakes like this. There's a reason the Miners are favored, and I believe it has a lot to do with the match ups.
First of all, the Miners are better than their 5-6 record. They've covered at Oregon, beat New Mexico State outright, covered at UNLV, beat Clemson outright, and lastly covered against Kansas State Friday. That's a resume to be proud of, at least from the Miners perspective. Auburn on the other hand, has played 6 non-lined contests, plus they got destroyed at Seton Hall and lost to Long Beach State handily Friday. Their record is a mirage, and they'll get exposed tonight.
Now that you see the Tigers schedule has been BS, you can throw their stats out the window. They are not a good defensive team, rather they are a team that has padded their stats against cupcakes. UTEP meanwhile IS a good defensive team, slowing down solid offenses Oregon, UNLV, and Clemson. They have enough size to deal with Auburn's frontline of Chubb and Gabriel. Plus, with Mike Perez playing well in the tournament, the Miners have a solid edge in the backcourt.
Finally, not only are the Miners 4-1 ATS following their L5 SU losses, but the Tigers 0-5-1 ATS in their L6 neutral court games. Long story short, don't let the records fool you, the Miners are the better team here and more than deserve to be favored. Lay it with UTEP over Auburn Sunday.
3♦ UTEP
Chris Jordan
Your free winner for Christmas Day will be on the Chicago Bulls over the Los Angeles Lakers, as the oddsmakers have it right in this one, making the Eastern Conference visitor the slim chalk at Staples Center. Let's be real, as much as I am a Kobe Bryant fan - since his days with Lower Merion High School - this is a bruised and battered Lakers team that is going to take some time to figure out the less-triangular offense.
Bryant is nursing his wrist, Pau Gasol is nursing his ego and Andrew Bynum is serving a suspension. Meanwhile new coach Mike Brown is trying to figure out how to keep it all together with a lineup that just two weeks ago appeared on its way to having Dwight Howard and Chris Paul. Instead, Howard is still in Orlando and Paul is indeed in L.A., but with the Clippers.
The Lakers may have experience, add-in Derek Fisher and Steve Blake, but the Bulls are young, talented and hungry. They're tired of hearing pre-game chatter about the Celtics, Knicks and Heat - as always - and could steal some thunder today with a monumental, double-digit win that would set the tone for the start of the shortened season.
The matchup I'm most interested in seeing is Bryant against Rip Hamilton, a defensive guru who knows how to defend the Black Mamba from his days as a Piston. Lay the points on the road in this one.
3♦ CHICAGO
David Banks
Chicago / Green Bay Under
The Sunday Night season finale takes NFL bettors to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field where the Green Bay Packers (13-1, 9-5 ATS) will look to bounce back from their first loss in a calendar year against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears (7-7, 7-7 ATS) on Christmas night; Chris Collinsworth and Al Michaels will call this one live starting at 8:20 ET.
The defending NFC North champion Chicago Bears 2011-12 campaign has been marred with dramatic ups and downs, and unfortunately heading into tonights clash with their most hated rivals, the Bears have a steep uphill climb ahead of them if they are to make the most of their slim playoff chances. Chicago found itself firmly entrenched in the playoff picture back in Week 11 when it beat down the San Diego Chargers 31-20 at Soldier Field. The win came with a price though, when QB Jay Cutler was lost for an undetermined amount of time after breaking the thumb on his throwing hand. Two weeks later, stud RB Matt Forte was lost for the season in the Bears gutwrenching 10-3 loss to Kansas City. Chicago now enters tonights spot losers of four in a row (1-3 ATS) after getting throttled by a rejuvenated Seahawks outfit at home last week. An ineffective Caleb Hanie has been benched in favor of journeyman QB Josh McCown with Chicago scoring an average of just under 12 PPG since Cutler went down; not a recipe for success when matched up with a potent Packers outfit.
Green Bay was saying all the right things week after week stating that it was taking one game at a time with the ultimate goal of defending their Super Bowl title. Oddsmakers seemingly had no answer in beating the Packers just like all their opponents, as they went into last week's battle at Arrowhead with Kansas City undefeated and an impressive 9-4 versus the closing pointspread. However, mass injuries along the offensive line combined with not having his best receiving option, QB Aaron Rodgers came out looking mortal as he threw for only 235 yards and completed less than half his passes in the defending champs shocking 19-14 Week 15 defeat. Even with the loss, Green Bay holds a commanding lead for the top spot in the NFC two games clear of the second best team in the conference. If at the very least they split their final two home games, you can pencil them in as the NFC's best team. Green Bay enters tonights brawl a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as a host.
Green Bay took the first round between these division rivals back in Week 3 in Chicago where it scored the 27-17 road win and cover as four-point favorites; the under cashed in that game for the eighth straight time in the recent series. The Packers have had the better of it against the Bears recently winning six of the L/10 overall meetings both SU and ATS. Chicagos covered five of the last six times it went off the board an underdog of 10.5 points or more, but also stands just 4-9-1 its L/14 December tussles. Green Bay has covered each of its L/4 gridiron battles when playing off a SU defeat, but the road team has covered four of these hated rivals L/5 overall confrontations.