Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 26, 2010

NellyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo + over New England
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The Patriots had just 249 yards of offense last week as they were bailed out by an interception return for a touchdown and a huge kickoff return. For the big numbers that the offense has put up, New England has actually been out-gained in eight games this season as this is not a good defensive team. The Patriots are allowing 375 yards per game, more than Buffalo has allowed per game despite the great disparity between the records for these teams. The Bills started the season 0-8 but Buffalo has won four of the last six while playing very competitive games with some of the elite teams in the league. New England has owned the recent history of this series but coming off a huge Sunday night win and essentially clinching the top seed in the AFC could leave the Patriots in a flat spot. Look for another solid effort from the Bills who have two wins and an OT loss to Pittsburgh in the last three games in Buffalo. New England will continue to be overvalued in any match-up the rest of the season despite displaying some weakness.

Sports InsightsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego Chargers
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As we made our holiday greetings with sportsbook risk managers around the industry, several of our contacts had this game circled. This game is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week, with the red-hot Chargers garnering about 90% of the bets, including teasers and parlays. The constant pounding of bets on the Chargers is creating a bit of line value as the opening line of Cincy +7 has started to tick up to Cincy +7.5. Some public books even have Cincy +8.
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The San Diego Chargers have won the AFC West for several years -- and capture a lot of public interest because of their high-powered offense. We'll "bet against the Public" and check out some other tidbits on this match-up:
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* After a slow start, the Chargers have won 6 of their last 7 games, with their last 4 victories being blowouts.
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* Their recent with margins of victories have averaged about 3-4 touchdowns! We'll "sell the Chargers at a recent high."
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* San Diego is just 2-4 on the road.
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* Although Cincy is just 3-11, their net points (Points For minus Points Against) are a "not-horrible" -81.
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* The Bengals have had a tough schedule, playing the likes of the Jets, New Orleans, Indy and Pittsburgh -- twice (!!) -- just over the past seven weeks! In three of these games, the Bengals stayed within a TD of these strong teams -- and in the Jets game, the Bengals looked stronger for the first half of the Thanksgiving Night game.
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* We'll "buy" the Bengals after their battle-hardened -- but losing -- stretch.
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* The Bengals look like a "live home dog" getting some decent points.
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* Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.
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Remember to shop around for the best line and try to grab at least the generally-available Bengals +7.5. SIA currently has the game listed at +8 for added line value.
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Cincinnati Bengals +8

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Denver Broncos
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Texans ride into Mile High on a 1-7 horse since their Bye Week, saddling up as favorites no less. For a team that stands 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS forever as road chalk versus a foe off SU and ATS loss, it hardly looks wise making a case for Gary Kubiak?s club. Not when Game Fifteen road favorites in their final away game of the season stand 8-31-2 ATS when playing off a division game. Meanwhile, Tim Tebow makes his 2nd straight start knowing the Broncos are 18-12 SU and 19-9-2 ATS home dogs, including 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS when playing off a division game. Look for Tebow to come up big in his home debut today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: New York Giants
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Conventional wisdom may suggest that the Giants' 21-point collapse last week against their divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles would qualify as a "deflating loss" that would carryover to the next week. However, this notion does not apply when considering the masochists that are the New York Football Giants (9-5). This team only seems to be happy when their backs are against the wall. Eli Manning admitted that his team let up a bit with their big 4th quarter lead. But after Eli called his first-ever closed door players-only meeting this week, expect the Giants to play very tough in the hostile environment of Lambeau Field. They love difficult situations like this as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games as an underdog of three points or less. And lets remember that the Giants sport the NFL's 3rd best statistical team in offense (383.9 YPG) and 2nd best statistical defense (290.9 YPG). Green Bay (8-6) has lost two games in a row after their gutty 31-27 defeat in New England last Sunday night. They will get Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a concussion in two weeks ago against the Lions. But will he be 100%? Even worse, will he survive against a Giants' defense that has already sent SIX quarterbacks to the hospital this season? The New York defense has sacked the quarterback 42 times this season (3rd in the NFL). Protecting the quarterback has become a big problem for the Packers. After allowing only 21 sacks in their first eleven games, Green Bay has surrendered 13 sacks over their last three games. Too bad the Packers do not have much of a running game to protect their wounded quarterback. The Giants are 4-2 on the road this season -- but Green Bay is 3-8-2 in their last 13 home games against teams with winning records on the road. Take the points with the underdog Giants.

Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: New York Giants +3
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Players only meting called by QB Manning on Tuesday to get his guys ready for this one and this is a MUST WIN for both teams. With QB Rodgers starting for Green Bay and Manning ready to win a big one, prefer to side with the team who is more balanced on offense in this one. NY can run it and Green Bay cannot. With a heavy pass rush against a banged up offensive line QB Rodgers for Green Bay may have another concussion this Sunday. The better team is NY and after last weeks debacle, I like them here to put away an overrated Green Bay team.

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Florida International +1½
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The Florida International Golden Panthers are the co-champions of the Sun Belt Conference this season, thus earning their first NCAAF bowl matchup ever in this Little Caesars Bowl vs. the Toledo Rockets, and we look for the first bowl for FIU to be a winning one.
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The college football latest line from Bodog for this contest is Florida International +1½, with the betting odds set at -110.
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The Golden Panthers were a very hot team offensively down the stretch, as they averaged a whopping 40.8 points per game during a four-game winning streak vs. the NCAAF odds that preceded their season ending 28-27 loss where they may have had a letdown vs. Middle Tennessee with their first bowl appearance clinched. We expect them to regain their fine offensive form here vs. a suspect Toledo defense.
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Speaking of the Rockets, they probably overachieved with their 8-4 record, as their statistics close resemble those of a .500 team at best. In fact, they were slightly outscored this season by -0.5 points per game and slightly outgained by -8.4 yards per contest. They were helped by benefitting in the turnover department, finished the year with a +14 turnover margin in NCAAF betting, third in the county behind the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Hawaii Warriors.
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They cannot simply count of winning the turnover battle here again, and also, the MAC has not fared well in bowl games the last 10 years, going just 15-25 ATS on the college football betting odds. This is also the second MAC vs. Sun Belt confrontation in this year’s bowls, and in the first one, Troy dismantled what was statistically a good MAC defense in Ohio.
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Look for FIU to do the same to what has been a fortunate Toledo team and come away with the victory in NCAAF bowl betting.

TEDDY COVERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
PICK: Houston Texans -2.5
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Tim Tebow sure got a lot of hype last week for a QB who completed a grand total of eight passes in his NFL starting debut. One of those eight completions was a miracle touchdown catch by Brandon Lloyd in the corner of the end zone, a pass that never should have been thrown into double coverage. Tebow’s other 15 pass attempts resulted in a grand total of 105 offensive yards, and that doesn’t count the two sacks he suffered.
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Tebow’s highlight reel run to the end zone was actually a busted play in which the rookie QB made a wrong read that worked out in his favor. The Broncos stable of running backs didn’t find much room to help their rookie QB – Lance Ball, Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter combined to gain a grand total of 28 yards on their 25 combined carries. This is not a potent offense right now, by any stretch of the imagination.
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Denver was outgained by more than 250 yards in their loss at Oakland; another dismal defensive performance from a bottom feeder team with a lame duck interim head coach and nine SU losses in their last ten ballgames overall. Denver’s defense has been torched by every decent attack they’ve faced; consistently unable to stop the run or the pass. The Broncos have allowed 35+ four times in their last five games, bad news against Houston’s explosive offense whether Andre Johnson suits up or not.
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The Texans have spent the year in their traditional role of hard luck losers, but they haven’t thrown in the towel. And, while head coach Gary Kubiak is on the hot seat in Houston, he could very well be coaching for his next job on Sunday – the Broncos are reportedly very interested in their former offensive coordinator, should he become available. 2* Take Houston.

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3* Dolphins -3.5
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Reasons why the Lions will cover:
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1) Forget how bad the Dolphins have played at home this season, Miami will be able to take away the Lions running game, which is a big reason they have played so well lately. Detroit has rushed for at least 180 in each of their last two games, but Miami hasn't allowed a team to rush for more than 87 yards in their last four games.
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2)Play on - all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Dolphins) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season, as its 82-42 since 1983.
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3) Miami is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons, and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1* Ravens -3.5
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While Baltimore is tied with the Steelers for the AFC North lead, they still haven't locked up a playoff spot, making this an extremely important game. The Ravens are without question the more talented team, and I think there is excellent value on them at just -3.5.
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Baltimore is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons, and are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
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Cleveland is just 2-4 ATS at home this season, and are only Browns are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Jets vs. Chicago Bears
Play: NY Jets +1
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The NY Jets (10-4) snapped their two game losing streak by upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh (10-4), 22-17, last Sunday, but still remain two games behind the Patriots (12-2) in the AFC East division race. They'll remain on the road playing at Chicago (10-4) this Sunday, against a Bear's defense that hasn't been as effective the past month while allowing 14, 20, 26 and 36 points in their last for games. This balanced Jets offense, averaging 141 rushing yards and 203 passing yards per game this season, should have no trouble putting points on the board against a Bears unit playing on a short week of rest after winning on Monday Night Football, as QB Sanchez is 7-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the road Favorite role as the Jets' starting QB.

Bob WingerterFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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SF 49ers vs. St L Rams
Play Under: 39½
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This is like a playoff game, because the Rams are in first place in the NFC West at 6-8, tied with Seattle, and the 49ers, at 5-9, have a very realistic chance to overtake both if they win this, and then beat Arizona next week. San Francisco has leveraged their division games well so far: 3-1, better than the other two. Since it’s like a playoff game, and neither head coach has a quarterback that’s been involved in anything resembling a one-game playoff in the NFL and don’t trust their quarterbacks as far as they can throw them, it figures to be a safe-play, defensive battle. As the season has progressed, the Rams have regressed in pass protection, and, as a result, quarterback productivity. Their game plan every week is to run Steven Jackson for as long as they can get away with it. When the other team is San Francisco, they can get away with it for a long time, because San Francisco’s offense never gets away from anyone because it can’t get out of its own way. As the season has progressed, the 49ers have been juggling the Smith Suckers, Troy and Alex, at quarterback. For this game, they might even play them both, which will add to the comedy effect, but probably can’t work out very well as far as points production is concerned. The final score of the first meeting was 20-20 (overtime doesn’t count), but the 49ers had two weeks to get ready for that one and so did the Rams. 40 points – right on today’s total – was the best they could do with two weeks to prepare. The lead-in here is only one week, with two sputtering offenses that have already shown all they have and would like the other guy to think they have more in the tank but they don’t, and, in San Francisco’s case, no longer has standout offensive tackle Joe Staley or RB Frank Gore.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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KANSAS CITY –5 over Tennessee
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So, the Titans beat the Texans last week 31-17. That’s nice it really is but let’s have a look at that. Houston played Baltimore the previous week on Monday Night Football and rallied from 18 down to send the game into OT before losing it. That was the Texans swan song. They played hard and they were ultimately eliminated from post-season action. Subsequently, they were asked to travel on a short week and play a meaningless game after such a promising start to the season. The Titans should’ve beaten them and they did but don’t put a lot of value into that win. The Texans defense is arguably the leagues worst. Not far behind them are these Titans. This is a bad matchup for Tennessee because they’re horrible (and that’s an understatement) against the run. That’s K.C.’s game. Pound the ball and pound it some more and they do it well. The Chiefs defense is also looking a whole lot better these days and with a crazed crowd behind them as they try and lock up the division, this is going to the most festive stadium in the NFL this day. It’s been years and years since the Chiefs were in a position to make the playoffs and back then Arrowhead was considered one of the more difficult venues to win at. You’ll see that again here. The Titans are getting way too much credit. They’re a poor team that’s lost six of seven and it’s amazing how quickly we forget about some of their ugly losses they’ve recently suffered. Once again, the Titans will be exposed in a big way. Play: Kansas City –5 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
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OAKLAND +3 over Indianapolis
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The Colts have Peyton Manning but that’s all they have. One guy can’t do it all and he especially can’t stop the opposition’s offense. The Colts were extremely fortunate to beat the Jags last week, they barely beat the Titans the week before and their only decent win this year came way back in week two when they crushed the Giants. That was a long time ago when they were healthy and now they’re anything but. Indy has no running game and Manning is running out of receivers. The Colts defense is also in trouble, as they continue to lose bodies at an alarming rate. Everything about this matchup, with the exception of QB, favors the Raiders. Oakland is playing well and they actually have a chance to have a season above .500. The Raiders strength is the running game and they should get little resistance here against the 29th ranked run defense in the league. It’s also worth noting that the Raiders are strong defensively against the pass and that’s the only way Manning can hurt them. This one is based strictly on reputation but in no way do the Colts in their current form warrant being the chalk in this hostile environment. Raiders outright. Play: Oakland +3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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CLEVELAND +4 over Baltimore
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This is really another classic case of buying too high and if you’re betting the Ravens here that’s precisely what you’ll be doing. The Ravens stock has soared after they ran its record to 10-4 with an impressive win over the Saints last week. It was no doubt a nice win but that’s all it was and besides, the Saints aren’t exactly setting the world on fire. New Orleans had been winning games but has had loads of trouble with a whole slew of mediocre squads. Baltimore has not had a difficult schedule at all and aside from New Orleans, its last six wins have come against Houston (in OT) a beaten up Bucs team, Carolina, Miami, Buffalo and Denver. Prior to beating the Saints the only other teams they played above .500 were Pittsburgh, New England and Atlanta and the Ravens lost them all. That’s not to say the Brownies are in the same class as those winning teams but they’re not far off. Cleveland has lost a whole bunch of close games and when they played the Ravens back in Baltimore in week four, they lost by just a touchdown, 24-17. They’ve also played a bunch of games with Jake (the Mistake) Delhomme running the show and now Colt McCoy is back for the second consecutive week. Lost in the Brownies poor record is the sound overall play of a defense that's been energized all season long. This is the “trap” of the week and the absolute worst time to buy into the Ravens. Play: Cleveland +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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BUFFALO +9 over New England
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Man, you talk about buying too high and one need not look further than these visitors. New England is killing it lately with a slew of easy wins and dominating performances. As a result of that, its stock is through the roof right now and if you wager on them here you’re paying a huge premium to do so and that never comes recommended. The Pats are coming off a string of successive big games and they close out the year next week at home against Miami. The Bills, despite a poor record, have been a cash cow all season long and this might be the best spot of them all. Buffalo is playing with pride, passion and confidence. They’ve been in just about every game this season with a chance to win them all with the exception of two. The Bills 4-10 record could just as easily be 8-6 or even better. They hung with these Pats in week three when they lost by eight and that game was in New England. They always seem to give the Pats problems and playing in Buffalo in late December is about as difficult as it gets for the opposition. Ralph Wilson Stadium is a wind tunnel this time of year and points are usually at a premium. Quietly the Bills have won four of its last six and it should be five of six after they lost to Pittsburgh in one of the most bizarre losses in recent memory. This is not an easy team to beat and the Bills not only should stay well within this range, they might pull off the upset. Huge overlay. Play: Buffalo +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

RANDALL THE HANDLEFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BEST BETS (24-19-2)
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Colts (8-6) at Raiders (7-7)
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The Colts have had a fairly soft schedule, yet they still find themselves just two games above .500 and needing to win to maintain a playoff spot. The Raiders may have something to say about that. This one matches up well for Oakland as they like to pound the rock and having to do so against Indianapolis’ 29th ranked run defence would seem like a logical strategy. Oakland has the personnel to slow down Peyton Manning’s passing game as the Raiders rank near the top in pass defence, allowing a scrawny 197.3 yards per game. Oakland can be pesky and this opponent may experience such annoyance. TAKING: RAIDERS +3
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Titans (6-8) at Chiefs (9-5)
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Don’t give the Titans too much credit for their win over the Texans last week. Three wise men and Santa could plow through Houston’s doughboy defence. Tennessee had lost six straight prior to that one and now must face an ascending Chiefs team that has playoffs on their mind. The Titans have one offensive weapon and smart teams have learned to stack the middle in order to slow down the fleet footed Chris Johnson. It’s no wonder the Titans have covered just three of past 14 against winning teams. Kansas City can run over this opponent while its proficient passing game (23 TD’s, 5 int’s) keeps the clueless Titans guessing. TAKING: CHIEFS –5
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Ravens (10-4) at Browns (5-9)
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Buyer beware. Sure, the Ravens look like a top AFC contender. But this is a dangerous spot. Late in the year, teams that have nothing to play for and are playing at home against teams with much to play for, have wreaked havoc on unsuspecting guests. We wouldn’t be surprised if Baltimore left their ‘A’ game back in Maryland after a three-game set that included the rival Steelers, an OT win on a Monday night against the Texans and then a tussle with Super Bowl champion Saints. Cleveland has upset the Patriots and Saints already this season and can let it all hang out here as a loosey-goosey home dog. TAKING: BROWNS +3½
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THE REST
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Jets (10-4) at Bears (10-4)
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Jets were an incompletion away from a three-game losing streak and now must travel on consecutive weeks to the cold confines of Soldier Field. Considering the Bears strong defence and New York’s pedestrian offence, this price appears cheap. TAKING: BEARS –1
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Vikings (5-9) at Eagles (10-4)
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At the beginning of the year, this line would have appeared to be a misprint. Some 16 weeks later, not only is it accurate, it may be a bit short. The Vikings have spit the bit and are missing front liners while the Eagles are a thriving NFC squad striving for maximum playoff seeding. TAKING: EAGLES –14
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Patriots (12-2) at Bills (4-10)
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Regardless of the outcome, this is a crazy number. The Bills have been thorns in the side of the Patriots recently, including a spirited 38-30 New England win back in September. Buffalo’s offence racked up yardage and can do same here. Also a letdown spot for Pats after slew of meaningful games. TAKING: BILLS +9
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49ers (5-9) at Rams (6-8)
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Niners QB Troy Smith threw for more than 350 yards in earlier meeting and had a few other big plays taken away by penalties in a San Fran overtime win. With the Rams having lost their map to end zone recently and if Niners can repeat offensive showing, the visitor has upper hand. TAKING: 49ERS +2
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Lions (4-10) at Dolphins (7-7)
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We’ve seen lottery winners less jubilant than these Lions after ending a three-year road loss streak. A letdown would not surprise, especially on the back end of consecutive road games. Miami has just one win in this stadium but situation bodes well to double that total. TAKING: DOLPHINS –3½
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Redskins (5-9) at Jaguars (8-6)
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Jaguars have been covering games but mainly when taking points. Jacksonville has been favoured just four times this season, never by more than four points, and did not exceed a seven-point win in any of those attempts. Redskins offence perked up a bit last week under fresh QB. TAKING: REDSKINS +7
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Texans (5-9) at Broncos (3-11)
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Sour egg nog is more appetizing than either of these two but given the choice, have to lean to the home side as demoralized Texans arrive here without their best defensive player and with best offensive player listed as questionable. Slower surface doesn’t boost Texans chances either. TAKING: BRONCOS +2½
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Chargers (8-6) at Bengals (3-11)
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Chargers must win both remaining while requiring the Chiefs to drop one of final pair. It’s a tall order considering the scheduling for KC but San Diego will obviously go all out. When Chargers win, they tend to do so convincingly and trend should continue when faced with Bengals decimated secondary. TAKING: CHARGERS –7½
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Seahawks (6-8) at Buccaneeers (8-6)
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Oddsmakers continue to line Bucs up in a range they don’t belong in as injuries have ripped through this roster and Tampa lacks depth to overcome. Buccaneers have won by more than six only three times on season and two of those victories were against woeful Panthers. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +6
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Giants (9-5) at Packers (8-6)
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Tough week for Giants after colossal collapse against Eagles and now must face one of the other teams they are battling for a playoff spot. Green Bay will have Aaron Rodgers back at the helm after missing last week with concussion issues. Packers in a better frame of mind for win here. TAKING: Green Bay –3
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Saints (10-4) at Falcons (12-2)
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Tough to fade the Falcons here as they are undefeated at home and will return here for first time in a month. However, in first meeting, Drew Brees threw for 365 yards in 3-point loss and a similar performance should be good enough to turn the tables in this exciting divisional contest. TAKING: SAINTS +2½

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St. Louis Rams -2.5
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Lucky for the 49ers and Rams that they have the benefit of playing in the NFC West. In every other NFC division, St. Louis and San Francisco would have already been eliminated from postseason contention. In the NFC West however they are both still alive and they both still have a shot at hosting a playoff game! In the first meeting, San Francisco edged St. Louis in overtime but I like the Rams to get revenge for that loss at home in the dome. San Francisco is a horrible 1-6 on the road this season and I don't see them generating enough offense to pick up the win in this game. The 49ers are another team that doesn't seem to have a set number one quarterback and this teams kills themselves way to many times with costly penalties. The 49ers are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog of three points or less and the Rams are 4-1 against the spread the last five times they have been favored by a field goal or less. Look for Sam Bradford and company to keep their playoff hopes alive, lay the points.